History
19,500 by End Aug/ Early Sept? ONLY IF...Even if my chart yesterday shows possible recovery by January 2019:
Current movement shows it may even follow my much earlier chart which indicated possible recovery as early as end of this August or early September.
Here is my OLD chart from June indicating possible recovery by end-Aug or early Sept:
This is DESPITE the current bearish sentiment after yesterday's crash.
Here is my NEW chart again (same as the main chart on this post), showing possible recovery by end-Aug or early Sept, matching my June chart:
Again, this is ONLY IF we've already seen bottom... hmmm
ONLY IF we saw bottom, 19.5K recovery by mid JanAssuming we've seen bottom and have resumed uptrend, and we're following similar pattern as 2014, we'll probably see all time high recovery by mid Jan; if history repeats itself this way. Includes corrections at 10K and 12K.
Assuming similar 20X parabolic rocket happens after all-time-high recovery, this could be in 5 months instead of 1 year (because of new shorter time frame); and we could see a 300K bitcoin by this time next year (June-July-Aug 2019)
So this is it? C'mon, seriously now...See how the Chaikin below seems to align with the points above.
*Note: I'm still hoping for a crash down to 5,400-5,800 but I may be wrong if the tide has already begun to turn...
Re-Drawing Peaks and Troughs: BIG DROP, Rebound, then Sideways?Similar price action, similar declining volume, similar Chande Momentum Oscillator. Maybe...
RVGI Has Turned UP, So... BOTTOMED?Similar price action, and RVGI has similarly turned up. Well... let's see
Will This Be the "PAINFUL GOLDEN" Week?Another way to look at 2013-2015 bear compared to today... Hmmm... Never know
But IF YES... expect a PAINFUL plunge before any reversal, similar to the chart shown (based on this chart, should go to 5,400)
NOT done yet! This... -->>Same or different? "Failed" triangle doesn't mean a failure in BTC? Let's see...
Why We Still MIGHT Go LOWER, Because...Very similar past price-action and quite similar RVGI. Let's wait for RVGI to turn up
*This is a counter-alternative to my relatively-bullish view in my other chart (coz yes, TA doesn't predict, only shows possible scenarios)
August 2018: ONLY IF history repeats itself in this way...UPDATE based on last post: Using the 2013 to 2015 time-frame extrapolated into this wave's similar but shorter span, we should re-touch the previous all-time-high (approximately 19,500) by end of August or early September 2018. (Again, this is ONLY if history repeats itself)
Recall from my last post:
We keep seeing mirror images of the 2014 bear market playing out now. But what if (just if) it has indeed played out, but a bit differently from the common mirror images we've seen? As in this?
*I know it's a long shot, but never know! (Isn't all TA long shot?)
*As you can see from my recent days' posts, I have both bull and bear scenarios, this is just a bullish possibility... (so in a way "yes," TA doesn't predict)
*ONLY IF this is true... that would explain the chop-chop limbo we're in right now. You'll notice that the 2014 reversal wasn't "dramatic" or quick or powerful... but a very gradual chop-chop till it reversed.
2014 Repeat is Already DONE in Shorter Span? THIS...We keep seeing mirror images of the 2014 bear market playing out now. But what if (just if) it has indeed played out, but a bit differently from the common mirror images we've seen? As in this?
*I know it's a long shot, but never know! (Isn't all TA long shot?)
*As you can see from my recent days' posts, I have both bull and bear scenarios, this is just a bullish possibility... (so in a way "yes," TA doesn't predict)
*ONLY IF this is true... that would explain the chop-chop limbo we're in right now. You'll notice that the 2014 reversal wasn't "dramatic" or quick or powerful... but a very gradual chop-chop till it reversed.
History Does NOT Repeat Itself?Yesterday I showed similar patterns which may suggest that history might repeat itself. Today I show how it might not be true either, with super similar patterns which ended up in opposite direction.
So you may apply this for both past bullish patterns and past bearish patterns. If you're bullish, you may use this to say that the similarity to 2014's chart doesn't mean we'll have a repeat of that. If you're bearish, you may use this to say that my chart yesterday won't result in a reversal at 5,400.
In any case, it's interesting!
Update: History TO REPEAT in a BIGGER Way?Similar to past pattern... you decide. (Update from yesterday)
To be clear, I'm quite confident in the move to point 6 or near point 6, not the reversal at point 6 (which may or may not happen).
*But if it does reverse, it will happen *near but before or slightly after* point 6, not at 6 itself. Why? People will freak out scared if it touches exactly point 6 again so it would go lower for sure (then either plunge further and worsen the bear market, or reverse). Or, if sentiment turns bullish, they'd buy right before it touches point 6 and the reversal would happen there.
Comparing today to Litecoin LTC chart from December 2013We may finally see how this breakout would have played out had the Mt.Gox hack not happened. This looks pretty similar to LTC's climb starting in November 2017 to present day. If we continue the same trend then the last candle would be about $200 today which is a major resistance for us today.
BTC TA COMPLETEHello goys, here is something I wanted to tell all of you about for a long time now. It's a complete, zoomed out technical analysis of this whole crash and the things and events before it.
First of all, all these drops and wedges can be called somehow, not all persons however posses such great abilities at naming them all, remember, this is zoomed out, if the events surrounding me allow me to deliver more of my highly valuable time into sharing my hard-gained knowledge with you I will definitely use a chart that is more zoomed in.
Okay, let's look at the beginning, here we can see Additivum grossum fundamentalum, not a smart batch of cash like plebs would say, be professional. That led us straight into something which those who have been granted the knowledge call Dolnisius's transition, there is 2 of them right there, one is polaroid, the other one is apananonvertical. Lots of people have been eliminated or terminated by these two unforgiving transitions of Dolnisius.
Those two transitions aren't just there for eliminating the weak from the game, you need to remember that, these two transitions of Dolnisius have actually caused a massive transnanoatomical macrohonimindivium transition, this event has created something not a single one of us can calculate nor visualize, but it's there and it has been of great honor to see something as huge as this unfold in front of my eyes.
Dolnisius according to the legends has calculated and visualized exactly when and how these transtitions occur, what is their depth, what are the exact events that occur before them and how to help triggering them, he was a real genius and the works which have been found after his tragic death will be forwarded to generations of young scholars and will forever lay deep in our minds.
Now back to the grand event those two transitions caused, it proceeded to create a really complicated part of this technical analysis, yes it's the Hemophagus's grundild triangle, this one is apantransvertical, a really rare one.
This kind is surrounded by many legends and prophecies, apparently first mentioned in the old scripts from the famous Alexandrian library, however, those scripts were never found nor has there been found any proof of their existence, only legends and tales of the folk have survived.
Now we're getting into the part where one of Gartley's quotients has been doing its thing, this one is pretty common, it's opuloid, we can see that it dragged us down right into the lowest levels of eternal doom, this was the day of many and many more pink wojacks, Gartley's quotients are not a kind thing and cause a lot of hassle especially to the weak and deluded, you need to stay strong during those.
It's because they set the ground floor, you need to be ready for some huge pump after one of these occurs.
Gartley was a young man who was able to calculate cryptographic equations, functional functions of addition or disintegration, logarithmic functions and nanographics in a matter of seconds only by his using his great mind.
He sadly died in horrible pains after finishing his last stages working on the quotients.
Discovering, calculating and visualizing the quotients was a great discovery not one of us will ever forget.
We're getting at the end of this TA and we're ending positively, Spitzerlung's additions are really profitable, especially when they are of this scale.
Spitzerlung's mother said that her son has never left his room, all he has been doing since his birth was calculating equations, watching anime and reading science books.
He was a real genius, one wonders how many more things he could've provided for the human race if he didn't create a virtual world full of anime girls, we all truly hope he is fine.
CONCLUSION: MOON IMMINENT
Now you have seen a little bit from the vast knowledge the chosen ones posses, you have also learned a bit about the history of some of the greatest people.
I hope you take something from this and will stay tuned for more TAs.
An idiot's guide to trading Bitcoin - Case study from 2017It's always easier to look back and see what should have been obvious at the time. This is a short case study of how one COULD have traded Bitcoin successfully from it's last epic run of 2017. This should be a precursor to what happens in 2018 and going forward. It isn't a 'method', but is an observation and an opinion that will guide my own trading going forward. A year in Bitcoin is like a decade in almost any other stock. This presents numerous insights.
We see that from late 2016 onward we had a series of higher highs / higher lows. If one simply applies a basic 14 period RSI oscillator to the chart and looks at price action, they would see that as long as Bitcoin was making higher highs and higher lows WITHOUT any significant divergence it would have been foolish to take profits / time the market / etc. The price retracements from where the RSI gets into overbought (sometimes significantly) territory simply weren't that large. Taking profits would certainly have led to feelings of accomplishment and $$$ but one would have missed out on even greater subsequent moves. It simply made more sense to be in the market, rebuying at times like July and September when BTC/USD dipped into oversold territory (while still making higher lows - although July is arguable). Note that there really isn't any divergence of mention between price and the oscillator during this time.
It isn't until we get to December that we start to see some extreme bearish divergence. Price careens upwards and pauses on 12-17. The oscillator makes a markedly lower low. While in hindsight it was probably impossible to time profit taking unless you were glued to your screen / phone, this was the first real time in the year long bull run to considering pausing and selling. The sharp move downwards over the next few days wipes away nearly half of the coin's value. Ouch!
Lessons:
Don't bother paying attention to oscillators in trending markets unless they are showing signs of divergence. Selling / timing the market will in all likelihood lead to regret / FOMO / emotional trading decisions.
If there are signs of divergence after an especially massive run, take profits immediately. Waiting could lead to massive hemorrhaging of profits.
As long as the crypto is making higher highs / higher lows feel free to rebuy in wherever it feels right to do so, especially when it gets into oversold territory.
Let's see what the rest of 2018 brings. I'll be sitting around enjoying life until there is some clear indicator of where the market is headed.
Note: this same analysis could apply to a number of other coins. I haven't checked.
ZCL/BTC looking like a bullish flag here!Hello traders!
The question is, if the history could repeat. some bullish signs are here so the bull run starts when the 4h closes above te upper channel line.
and u sould sell if the daily closess below 0.786 FIBB
Is Bitcoin going to every die - probably not. In this video, I review some evidence available to everybody. I spot some behaviour patterns of Bitcoin over the years.
The evidence to date is that it refuses to die - at each stage when people shouted "Crash!" or "Tulip!".
I'm not saying that Bitcoin will not die. That's none of my business as a trader. My business is to assess evidence, see patterns and decide on probabilities.
I'm inviting all to look at the same evidence. Are we all seeing the same thing? Are we seeing broadly the pattern of fall back followed by shocking recovery?
Hate to Say It: Bull Trap Til 12K ??I hate to say it, but without a big fundamental catalyst when it nears 12K, it could be a bull trap and then resumption of the bear market. Not only is the pattern very similar, but even the stochastic RSI is almost identical. I want it bullish too, but just sayin... be suspect of this rally until we clearly break 12K!
