Get started

Hangsengindex

HSI Index Falls Amid Disappointing Chinese Economic DataHSI Index Falls Amid Disappointing Chinese Economic Data On Tuesday, Hong Kong's HSI index (traded as Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) declined, erasing gains from the previous session due to worsening market sentiment following the release of disappointing Chinese economic data for November. As reported by the media: → China's export growth slowed to 6.7% year-on-year, falling short of the forecasted 8.5%, according to a Reuters survey. This marks a significant deceleration compared to the 12.7% growth recorded in October. → Additionally, Chinese imports contracted, decreasing by 3.9% year-on-year in November, further deteriorating from the 2.3% decline seen in the previous month. These figures have heightened concerns about the state of China’s economy, with consumer demand remaining weak amid the potential for tariff increases under the Trump administration. Technical analysis of the Hong Kong HSI Index chart (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) reveals that price action throughout 2024 has established an ascending channel (illustrated in blue). Notably: → The median line of the channel has previously acted as a "magnet" for price (highlighted with a blue oval), typically indicating equilibrium between supply and demand. → However, as marked with an arrow, it has recently acted as resistance, turning the price downward this week. This sharp shift in sentiment suggests that the HSI index value (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) could retreat to the previous consolidation zone between the 19,000–19,700 levels. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:HSI
by FXOpen
1
SHOCKING! 40% tariffs on Chinese imports!According to a survey of economists by Reuters, the U.S. is considering imposing nearly 40% tariffs on Chinese imports early next year. Such measures could slow the growth of the world’s second-largest economy by 1%. Economists polled by the publication, both Democrats and Republicans, believe these changes will trigger massive disruptions in the U.S. and global economies, surpassing the impact of the trade wars during Trump’s first term. They warn this could ignite a “global trade war.” During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised significant tariffs on Chinese goods as part of his “America First” trade policy. These potential tariffs, much higher than the 7.5%-25% rates of his first term, come at a vulnerable time for China’s economy, which is grappling with a prolonged real estate slump, debt risks, and weak domestic demand. Most economists predict Trump will impose the tariffs in early 2025, with an average estimate of 38% and projections ranging from 15% to 60%. These tariffs are expected to reduce China’s economic growth in 2025 by about 0.5-1.0 percentage points. What could Trump’s policy lead to? Chinese indexes: Chinese stock indexes like #ChinaA50 and the Hang Seng Index (#HSI) are expected to face downward pressure. Chinese corporations: Key sectors such as electronics, automotive, and textiles—heavily reliant on exports to the U.S.—are likely to suffer the most. Major Chinese corporations, including #Alibaba and other leading players, could see their stock values decline. U.S. Indexes: American indexes like #SP500 and Dow Jones (#DJI30) might experience short-term volatility. Tariffs will raise costs for U.S. companies dependent on Chinese supplies, such as those in tech, automotive, and consumer goods sectors—companies like #Apple, #Tesla, and #Nike may face increased production costs. This could reduce profitability and potentially lead to stock corrections. In the long term, however, the U.S. might benefit from the trade war, as it could boost domestic production, positively impacting American manufacturing stocks. FreshForex analysts predict a growth phase to begin in late Q1 2025 . At the same time, on November 14, investors sharply increased short positions in Asian currencies following Trump’s tariff announcements.
TVC:HSIShort
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Markets collapse: investors flee China!The Chinese stock market is experiencing a sharp decline following a strong rally in recent weeks. On October 8, the Hang Seng Index (#HSI on FreshForex) plummeted by 9.56%, reaching 20,893 points. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong, dropped even further — by 10.9%. The CSI 300 Index of mainland China, which started the day with an 11% gain, ended with a nearly 8% loss. The main reason for the drop is growing investor dissatisfaction with the lack of new economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government. Expectations were high, especially after the National Development and Reform Commission's press conference, where economic support was promised but no concrete actions were provided. This has heightened uncertainty in the market. What has been done previously: - In late September, the Chinese government announced plans to strengthen economic stimulus, promising fiscal injections and support for the real estate sector. - The People's Bank of China lowered reserve requirements for banks, freeing up 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) for the market. - There are plans to lower mortgage rates and the down payment for second-home purchases to a record low of 15%. Bottom line: The market is waiting for action. Given the history of sharp declines in the Chinese market, such as in 2015 when the CSI 300 Index lost 40% in two months, the Chinese government cannot afford a similar outcome and may direct efforts to strengthen investor confidence. Since mid-September, #HSI has experienced a steady bullish trend, and our analysts believe these trends could repeat.
HSI:HSILong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Drops Nearly 10% TodayHang Seng Index (HSI) Drops Nearly 10% Today As shown on the Hang Seng Index chart (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen), prices have fallen by almost 10% since trading began today, and the session is not over yet. According to Reuters, bearish sentiment was driven by uncertain statements from Chinese officials regarding economic stimulus measures. This has raised doubts in the stock market about Beijing's ability to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of its most severe downturn since the global pandemic, aiming to achieve 5% growth. Additionally, the decline may have been accelerated by a cascade of long position closures, which were opened in mid-September when the Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) was in an upward trend. Hang Seng Index Technical Analysis (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen): → The upward trend (marked in blue) is still intact, although the price is now near the lower boundary, posing a real risk of a break. → The price failed to hold above the 22,700 level, which could act as future resistance. → Support may come from the psychological level of 20,000 points and the September 30 low near 20,630. It’s possible that the lower boundary of the blue channel and the support area between 20,000 and 20,630 could help bulls offset some of today's significant decline. However, for a sustainable continuation of the upward trend on the Hang Seng Index chart (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen), the market will need clear evidence of economic stimulus from Chinese authorities. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:HSI
by FXOpen
2
HSI significant pull back! FX:HKG33 Look at 1H chart movement together with the MACD & KDJ indicator, the histogram for MACD line & signal line is getting weaker (you can see both indicators curve seems lower than the previous wave). We should monitor. marked the time zone where the index turned bearish for the 1H chart. There was no re-entry position as trading in Asia time zone. The significant pull-back continues when market re-open here. It's 10% pull back this morning. Well, this is a good chance to look at for a better re-entry level. However, we should be cautious to avoid catching falling knives 🗡 what we see from the 1H chart MACD & KDJ both are on the downtrend level/bearish red zone. However, we can look at the support level at 21580. If the index stays above this level then the uptrend is still intact. Otherwise, we could expect a more significant pull-back (cross-check with longer tf chart 4H,8H). For shorter 1H tf swing trade check the 8H Chart for support/resistance level Find support level at 21500-21700 and resistance level 22000 -22300 It has been climbing too fast and taking a break now. Personal POV, prefer the movement slow and steady forming a stable staircase; more sustainable. Happy trading everyone! A pull-back is healthy for taking a breather.
FX:HKG33
by ChenQianYu
Is a Hang Seng Revival on the Horizon?The Hong Kong Index has faced challenging years since reaching its all-time high in 2018. The downtrend accelerated in 2021, bringing the index to a low of around 15,000. The subsequent reversal aligned neatly with horizontal resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating that the bears were not finished yet. Indeed, 2023 also saw a continued downtrend. However, and this is crucial, the index did not make a new low. Instead, the decline halted at the strong 15,000 support level. In early 2024, a significant break above the falling trend line was observed at the end of April. The correction that followed confirmed the broken trend line, suggesting that this breakout is genuine and indicates a long-term shift in trend. September began with a higher low, followed by a powerful surge above the 20,000 level for the first time in over a year. This sequence of events suggests the potential beginning of a long-term bull trend, with the possibility of the index reclaiming the 23,000 level by 2025. For those looking to initiate a long-term buy position, there are two key levels to watch: 19,500, the former resistance level, and 18,500, which now serves as strong support.
HSI:HSILong
by Mihai_Iacob
10
HK50 gave back all of its gains over the past month BYD and Li Auto dropped by 5.57% and 7.29%, respectively, exerting a decisive impact on the decline of HK50. Despite BYD's reporting of favorable 2Q earnings with a 26% increase in sales, the results fell below expectations. Meanwhile, Li Auto's 2Q performance was down 45% YoY, while sales increased by 10%. However, the 5.6% decline in electric vehicle deliveries in Aug compared to the previous month raised concerns about the Chinese EV market. With growing export tensions, the outlook for Chinese EV manufacturers will likely worsen in 2024, further amplifying the negative sentiment toward the index. HK50 gave up all the two-week gains and closed at around 17150. The index still holds above the descending channel's upper bound but slid below both EMAs, sending apparent bearish signals. If HK50 fails to hold above both EMAs and breaks the 16700 support, the index may reenter the descending channel and fall further to the 15850 support. Conversely, if HK50 climbs above both EMAs and extends its uptrend to the short-term high at 18200, the index could gain upward momentum to the resistance at 18600.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50
by inkicho_exness
Hang Seng bulls eye retest of 18kWe'll admit that the Hang Seng does not have the most bullish of structures among APAC indices, but it continues to defy bears with a break of key support. And if sentiment for global indices picks up as we suspect, it could pave the way for another cheeky long for Hang Seng bulls. The index has seen three failed attempts to break beneath 17500 since late June. Sure, we saw one daily close below it, but the move was mostly reversed on Monday. A bullish divergence is also forming on the daily RSI (2), hence the bias for another crack at 18k minimum - a break above which brings the June and July highs around 18,400 into focus. Yet as the 4-hour chart shows prices paused at the weekly pivot point with RSI (2) overbought, we'd prefer to wait to see if prices retrace within Monday's range before seeking longs. This could help improve the reward to risk ratio for bulls whilst prices hold above last week's low, with 18,000 and 18,400 in focus for upside targets.
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by CityIndex
Hang Seng Slips after New Disappointing Chinese DataLast week’s soft CPI report showed that China has not escaped deflationary pressures and today’s data reaffirmed the weak consumer demand environment, as retail sales rose just 2% y/y in June and the worst print since late-2022. Adding to the woes, the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 and the slowest pace in more than a year. HKG33 slips after the new disappointing data and remains in peril of breaching the ascending trend line from the 2024 lows and the 50% Fibonacci of the advance from that low (at around 17,200). That could open the door to further losses towards 16,000, but we are cautious around such moves. This week’s new disappointing releases may aggravate concerns around the economy, but also raise the chances of more stimulus by Beijing just as the Third Plenum kicks off, where officials will have the chance to discuss supportive measures. HKG33 can find renewed support as a result and last week it managed to gain ground, overcoming the poor inflation report. Although the upside remains unfriendly, the index tries to hold the initiative about the EMA200 (black line) that keeps it on track for 18,736, but sustained advance towards this year’s peak 19,794 does not look easy. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:HKG33
by FXCM
Hang Seng in Remains in Peril after Weak Chinese InflationChina’s post pandemic recovery is bumpy, troubled by a distressed property market, subdued factory activity and weak consumer demand. Today’s data showed that the country has not escaped deflationary pressures, with CPI hovering around zero for more than a year now. Inflation came in at +0.2% y/y in June, lower than expected and the weakest since January. On a monthly basis, it contracted by 0.2%. Strained Sino-Western relations meanwhile add to the woes, with the latest episode in the trade wars coming from the European Union, which slapped provisional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). This unfavorable mix keeps pressure on HKG33, which runs its second straight losing month. The index is now in risk of breaching the ascending trend line from this year’s lows that would bring 16K in the spotlight. On the other hand, Beijing has been taking measures to support the economy – even if timid – and more action could be announced later in the month, while weak inflation puts pressure on the central bank for rate cuts. Furthermore, the economy has shown some encouraging signs and the country pushes ahead with the new three pillars of growth consisting of solar, EVs and electric batteries. HKG33 is in profitable territory for the year after the recent relief rally and can find support around the current levels. This would give it the opportunity to reclaim the EMA200 (blackline) and regain the initiative, but the upside is unfriendly. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:HKG33Short
by FXCM
HangSeng likely more downside till 17000Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
ICMARKETS:HK50Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Hang Seng Tries to Hold Key Support Amidst Mixed Chinese DataThe relief rally of the past four-months fades as HKG33 concluded a four-week losing streak, leading to a challenge of pivotal support levels. The Hong Kong index tests the 38.2% Fibonacci of this year’s low/high advance, creating risk for a deeper correction towards the 61.8% level. China’s post pandemic recovery is bumpy, underscored by distressed property sector, subdued factory activity and weak domestic demand, with CPI hovering around zero for the past year. Today’s data showed a deceleration in industrial production to 5.6% y/y and another drop in house prices. Retail sales grew 3.7% y/y though, offering reasons for optimism. Furthermore, China’s real estate market may be in poor shape, but Beijing has found new growth pillars in electric vehicles, car batteries and solar cells. Adding to hopes for better days ahead, both the IMF and the World Bank recently upgraded their China GDP forecasts. HKG33 finds reprieve today and tries to hold the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci and the 200 Days EMA (blue line. Successful effort will give it the opportunity to retake 18,736 and the chance to push for higher highs (19,794), but the latter has a higher degree of difficulty. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:HKG33
by FXCM
Hang Seng: Is a Turnaround Coming?The Hang Seng Index, with everything measured in Hong Kong Dollars rather than US Dollars, offers a distinct perspective within our analysis portfolio, focusing on the Hang Seng Index Futures contract. Starting with a weekly chart overview, we've identified that the initial cycle likely concluded in 2008, followed by a flat correction. Notably, the correction for Wave B exceeded 100%, suggesting that the drop towards Wave (A) level, or slightly lower, is plausible. However, there's an alternative perspective that at Wave (A) already concluded Wave II, although the rapid temporal progression for such a wave suggests this is less likely. We anticipate further declines, yet it's critical to acknowledge a potential Wave (1) and Wave (2) formation at the 78.6% level. A drop below this point should lead us towards the HK$10,500 mark, aligning with our initial entry point around HK$11,300. Despite this, it's premature to issue a limit order given the ample time to observe developments. Daily chart observations further indicate an expectation of a 5-wave structure from (B) to (C), which has been forming quite elegantly despite Wave ((iv)) intruding into Wave ((i)) territory. This necessitates our acceptance of the current count unless we opt for an interpretation that sees a completed Wave (2) at the point marked as Wave ((iii)). Delving into the 4-hour details reveals a persistent downtrend from the onset of what's identified as Wave ((iv)). To reverse this trend, surpassing the invalidation zone would be crucial, suggesting a reconsideration for long positions. Until such a shift occurs, the bear flag's presence likely continues to restrain any significant upward movements in the market.
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by stromm_by_wmc
1
Hang Seng Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators. * Trend is Based on TrapZone Color * Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves. * Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand >> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post << -------------------- 2-25-2024 Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established for a while and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
HKEX:HSI1!
by SnowflakeTrader
Are we close to peak China pessimism?President Xi Jinping’s New Year address put paid to hopes of much larger stimulus. In his address, President Xi pointed to the consolidation and enhancement of the economic recovery and no signs of a boost from policy coming. Furthermore, China’s economic growth for 2023 came out at 5.2%, above the central government’s 5% forecast, which it boasted it was able to achieve without relying on large stimulus. China’s real GDP growth to slow further in 2024. Investors' pessimism towards China’s economy could be nearing a peak given recent efforts by policymakers to stabilize sentiment. Policymakers acting to stabilize sentiment: China’s policymakers are feeling the need to stabilize investor sentiment and this week have taken two steps in this direction. First, following a recent State Council meeting, Premier Li Qiang suggested help is on the way for China’s beleaguered stock market. Newswire reports suggest this help could include CNY 2.3trn of funds (mainly from SOEs) to buy Chinese equities to prop up the market. Such a measure could help put a bottom on investors’ China pessimism. However, such purchases would not address their underlying concerns including a weak residential property market, local government debts, the lack of policy easing, and the risk of another regulatory clampdown. Second, the PBoC surprised with an RRR cut as well as a cut to its re-lending and discount rates. While I was expecting cuts to both, the size and timing were surprising given the recent disappointment of the PBoC keeping its MLF on hold. The PBoC also sounded dovish suggesting further room to ease policy given the gap between actual and target prices and the Fed’s pivot towards easing. Check out my other ideas:
TVC:HSILong
by Elite_Forex
HSI: Already finished? 👀The HSI has risen sharply since Monday. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the index is still working on a magenta-colored downward structure and is therefore not yet finished with its correction. Only after this five-part wave, and thus the turquoise-colored wave 3, has come to an end should things pick up a good bit - even if there is still further downside on a Long-term level. However, there is also a 33% probable alternative, which envisages a sustained rise and considers the past low to be the low of the green wave alt.(2). This scenario comes into effect if the resistance at 18 846 points is exceeded.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by MarketIntel
Ride the Japanese Wave, Don't Grab That China Falling KnifeIt was nearly three years ago when the China stock market notched a short-term peak. Recall how the world's second-largest economy was initially seen as a growth engine coming out of the worst of the pandemic. An authoritative regime in China, led by President Xi Jinping, crippled the economy's expansion trajectory through harsh ongoing lockdowns and by clamping down on many industries, one after another. Then in early 2023, hope sprang eternal that China would re-open amid a burst of consumer spending, a la what was seen during the 'revenge travel' period in the United States back in 2021 and 2022. That did not come to fruition, and the Hang Seng Index is now down by more than 50% in the last three years. With all that turmoil going on in China, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index has continued to soar. Up more than 20% since February of 2021, the once sleepy Tokyo stock market features among the best momentum readings of all countries. Based on these trends, sticking with the 'long Nikkei, short China' trade should keep working, in my view. Another way to play it is by being long developed market stocks and avoiding emerging market funds (which still have a roughly 20% allocation to China). Finally, while China trades at a single-digit P/E ratio today, Japan is by no means expensive. Goldman Sachs notes that the country's current 12-month forward earnings multiple is just 14.9, about average compared to its 20-year history (Asia-Pac ex-Japan is 12.3x, for perspective). Interestingly, Japan is back up to 6% of the global stock market allocation while China has sunk to just 3%. Perhaps it is indeed the land of the rising sun while China is a classic "sub"-merging market. A solid ETF to play Japan continues to be the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) which hedges exposure to the Japanese Yen. The ETF has a solid track record of outperforming other Japanese country funds.
TVC:HSILong
by mikezaccardi
1