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Halvening

When will BTC peak in the next parabolic rally?This is another iteration of a previously published chart, but simplified to drive the point home. Motivation Predicting the peak of BTC's next parabolic rally is critical for the profit-taking strategies of speculators and hodlers alike. For speculators, it's about knowing when to get out. For hodlers it's about how to grow your bags. Really, knowing the timing of the peak is more important than knowing the potential price levels. BTC is a deflationary asset. As market cap continually builds, flow is being squeezed on a pre-set schedule and real value continues to grow. So, we know price will rise. Whatever levels we may reach ($50K? $150K? $250K? 1 million?), taking profits requires knowing WHEN those peaks may be attained. Two Perspectives There seems to be two primary camps in the timing debate. In the first camp, there are analysts who note that the time between each previous peak has grown. For these analysts, the first all-time high of around $30 in 2011 is key. The subsequent ATH in 2013 of nearly $1,200 came only 2 years 5 months later (884 days). In contrast, the next ATH took 4 years and 1 month to arrive (1491 days). This 40% expansion in time between peaks logically leads some to believe we will see a similarly expanded time frame as we wait for the next peak, with many predicting peaks delayed until 2023 or even 2024. Such predictions, however, seem to discount or devalue the underlying architecture of BTC growth, the built-in halving cycle in which the flow of new BTC into the system drops every 4 years when the reward to miners is cut by 50%. The 2017 peak arrived 4 years and 1 month after the 2013 peak (1491 days). Was this a signal that the parabolic price cycle had become calibrated with the 4 year halving cycle? If so, the cycles seem to be offset by approximately 18 months, which would make the target for the next peak in or around December 2021, or some 18 months (1460 days) after the 3rd halving in May of 2020. The Upshot Obviously there are so many attenuating factors that can influence the market, and when and where we'll find peak price discovery is anyone's guess, but smart profit seekers would do well to monitor the market closely as we approach December 2021. Even if the peak is delayed, this should be a key profit-taking window for speculators. For hodlers, it will be an opportunity to strategically pull capital from overvalued BTC before the inevitable 75-85% retracement in which we can grow our bags with an eye to 2025 and beyond.
BNC:BLX
by DragonFish1969
CHRISTMAS SUPRISE BITCOIN! $9.000CHRISTMAS SUPRISE BITCOIN! $9.000 As we speak bitcoin is at 7.150. If we hold 7.1 at least 7.050 i think we can see a nice Christmas rally! This could end higher then 9k. Why i think bitcoin is going to pump massively in the coming weeks/months?: Bitcoin halvening is in less then 150 days, this means we are going to get a rally before. And then i think begin MAY it is Buy the Rumor, Sell the News. Maybe there is a potential hit to 14k-16k. But for now im only watching to break 7.8 for a HH. If not we are going down again. I hope you will leave your idea! And dont forget to long BTC!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by Mikki0416
Preparing For The WorstWhat if Bitcoin has always been in a Bull Market. What if we are entering the Bear Market for the first time? Among many things Bitcoin is a tremendously valuable asset, there is no doubt bitcoin is a token that heralds the birth of an industry. But what if we do not have the mass adoption necessary to sustain current prices? There has been speculative weather for some time now but for how long has bitcoin been a speculative market? Did it start with big exchanges introducing margin into the mix? Or when Tether began pumping prices? I'm not going pretend to have the answer of where the source of the problem is. However, I think it's self evident the technology is still in its infancy. Engineers have less than a preference for blockchain they downright ignore it. I see a lot of new ideas in the space that will redefine the future and some of them have actually manifest. But I am not seeing the masses flowing into the space like the previous cycles, and I am not seeing the technology get to a point where immutable, trustless systems are ready to be deployed on a widescale. The scale has been very selective and contained within the niche technology space. The idea came to me that if this downward trend of a speculative market continuously correcting itself and consolidating up until the Halvening, we could be in store for a lackluster halvening. And that will spell absolute disaster for the market.
BNC:BLXShort
by VErbadoo
BITCOIN - 5 YEARS OUTLOOK- Must read!Hello there fellow traders, invester, crypto-prophets and enthusiasts! This chart shows and tries to analyse fundamental Bitcoin behaviour according to the BTC-Halvenings. It allows us to understand the multiple rises and falls of btc. Since ever, Bitcoin, was in the hand of the members of the market. Miners, who act like a motor, which is the oil, the transaction machine that underlies btc. All market participants- the retailers, the institutionals and the govermental regulatory parties gather information as well. Since we live in a social media generation, everybody is like up to date at anytime. Regarding to this, be very careful, because whenever patterns happen, people will know!. Sometimes follow the herd, sometimes do not. Follow your own opinions and charts- but listen and follow others too. Since charts represent information already happened, nobody knows what information will come at what time and what impact it is going to have. Therefore, it is very hard to beat the market, in my opinion (especially crypto)! I am open for your thoughts on this and I would appreciate an open conversation in the comment section!! cheers, maito
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by GER-Quality-Trades
1
BTCUSD - Glass half full approachCOINBASE:BTCUSD is having a rough few days. Price is dropping hard and it seems there isn't a consensus of where support will come in. I'm not willing to take a position just yet, but I do want to say that having the RSI already at historic low levels is a bad thing on the daily chart, it does represent some improvement. The major drop from 6k to 3k had RSI reach record daily low levels never before seen in Bitcoin history. Do I think this dump will produce worse RSI levels than the dump at 6k? Most likely not. While we have consolidated for several months and broken down out of the consolidation that does not mean this may not end up being a great dip-buying opportunity. As stated, the RSI is historically oversold, however, in the past, RSI typically doesn't stay oversold long for Bitcoin. The dump for the 6k consolidation that took nearly a year was the lone exception. I'm not convinced we stop and turn around here, because downward momentum on the weekly charts is hard to ignore. However, I will be watching for a potential divergence forming on the RSI on the daily charts if this break down is not bought up swiftly soon, and I imagine it won't. Certainly worth me keeping my eye on. DISCLAIMER: For educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment including all types of crypto. DYOR, TYOB.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by BigBitsIO
Long Term BTC trend analysis Hello everyone, my name is CombJelliesAreCool, lets get to brass tacks. Lets start off with the red and green curves i have surrounding the entirety of the price action for BTC, i started off with the first high and low back in Oct 2010 and connected the green curve with every subsequent rally high and connected my red curve with every subsequent rally low. Doing this, its clear to see that touching either of these curves is a trustworthy indicator for the end or beginning of a sustained uptrend. Due to the inherent volatility of the bitcoin market, its entirely possible for a downtrend to occur inside of an uptrend of vice versa. However, if your uptrend doesn't touch the green curve or the downtrend doesn't touch the red curve then the trend has not completed. This indicator has played out without fail for almost 10 years now and can be seen in action with the rallies of 2011 and 2013 and the down trends of 2014 through early 2015 and i posit for the downtrend of 2018 through the rest of 2019. On this indicator i took my inspiration from @MagicPoopCannon but I came to a different conclusion on the shape of the curves, he posits that as time goes on the price of bitcoin will eventually stabilize, although I agree with him that price action will eventually stabilize as the market gets saturated, I highly doubt stability is coming anywhere in the near future with the increasing adoption and exponential amounts more money that's coming into the market so my bands increase in width as time goes on as opposed to decreases. Lets move on to the SMA cross, it looks like there's an impending deathcross on the horizon coming to confirm this downtrend we've been in for two months, with this harsh of a downtrend in the past week I assume its coming sooner than later, especially looking at the shape of the 50 SMA up close. Now for the NVT analysis, I noticed that the shape of the nvt during late 2012 through mid way 2014 has a lot of confluence with the NVT of mid 2017 through now. I first noticed that a new end of the downtrend wasnt confirmed until the NVT for a green oversold signal, one that we didnt have, even during out catastrophic drop in Nov 2018. If you look at the red lines you can see that the shapes of the NVT are basically symmetrical. You see a gradual rise into a steep rise followed by a monster of a dropoff, boom, green oversold signal, a gradual rise and plateau followed by yet another steep rise and another, albeit ever so slightly less of a dropoff than the previous, this takes us into the mid 70s of the NVT, we plateua, chop for a couple months than a decent uptrend and a very gradual drop off of the third red peak of the NVT, and finally our second green on the NVT since out first red peak and a touch of the red curve to signify the end of the downtrend. A majority of this trend is confirmed including the steepness of the angles and the timing of the plateaus in the trend. I would assume this would indeed be the case if we had good NVT data for our very first bull and bear cycle. If this fractal plays proportionally our eventual low will likely be the high 2000s or low 3000s and our rally high in 2023 will be around 250000 - 300000 dollars per BTC. Shes going down boys. Thank you for reading, Im open to ideas and criticisms.
BNC:BLX
by CombJelliesAreCool
4
LTC 4 hr 8/3/2019Looking at LTC before the halving occurs. I am watching to see if it pumps a bit before the halving although I have my doubts we will see anything significant. I know this is the USD chart and I also know that I typically use a BTC chart but alts look so awful when they are paired with BTC. So I am looking at the USD chart. I see an ascending triangle or pennant or whatever tf you want to call it which could signal a break out... Just keep an eye on that volume.... I also realize people typically dump their bags after a halving event but that is usually if there is a significant pump directly before I would imagine. WE made it up to around $145 a while back and sunk pretty deep. There is a little over 1 day left til the actual halving occurs. If you are playing this please set a SL. Just in case the dump does happen. This halving didnt follow the path I thought it would but live and learn I guess. I will be keeping an eye on the charts...
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn4304403
1
LTCUSDT price prediction to 6'th of August and afterThis is my first published idea, so hope this kind of scenario plays out. LTC halvening is on 6'th of August (my birthday :P), usually after those events take part, price comes down. It is forming a "cup and handle" formation on 1W. Until 06.08.2019 we will see price moving between 128$-145$, but after LTC catches 145$ again, it will brake through it, Then there is not much stopping it, reaching 180$ peak. Hope You like this idea. Also feel free to comment and debunk this or approve it. I am not a proffesional trader and this is not trading advice! Use Your own research and trade with cool head :) GL!
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by viilutaja