qqq nadaq still in bear trend, battle for next move #qqqsp500 growth and nasdaq growth assumptions for next year are coming down. We have only seen slight earnings revisions. So the declines we have seen now are only from reduced growth rates expectations.
Growthstocks
Long Rekor Systems REKR - micro cap tech, low debt, low float31 million share float. 20% short at time of post. book value quote $2.55 mkt cap 205m
Rekor Systems Inc is a United States-based company.
It is engaged in providing real-time roadway intelligence through AI-driven decisions. Rekor bridges commercial and government sectors with actionable, real-time vehicle recognition data.
The firm uses artificial intelligence to analyze video streams and transform them into AI-driven decisions.
Its machine learning software can turn most IP cameras into accurate vehicle recognition devices used to help protect lives, increase brand loyalty, and enhance operations and logistics
Its geographical segments are the United States, Canada, and Other, of which the majority of its revenue comes from the United States.
GOOG will reach 88.80 fast unless it recovers 102 this week.GOOG, after doing a bear flag, was since rejected by 102 volume profile zone. It has entered into a low volume space & the next volume support level at 88.80 will be fast unless GOOG recovers 102 after Thursday’s CPI data. Some earnings report from banks this week are also catalysts. A small oversold bounce expected this week but may not last.
Not trading advice
ADBE higher high higher low; Target of Inv H&S id 555ADBE just broke above some resistance lines as shown in the chart. Here I used GANN lines.
It broke above a small resistance zone & the downward channel. If the huge inverse H&S pattern plays out, there
Will be a huge upside with TP at 555.
A fundamental very good company with a lot of moat.
Not trading advice
Home Depot to continue the growth trendHorizon: 1-2 months
Target: $350
Technical analysis
The current correction reached more than 90% of the previous movement. Such values are standard within the uptrend and mark its continuation.
Fundamental factor
The Home Depot is an American retailer that is the world's largest retailer of repair tools and building materials. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index averaged 103.2 points in August compared to 95.7 points in July. This indicates a shift in consumer sentiment toward secondary consumption (including repairs and construction), which may have a positive effect on the company and sales.
Boeing Company continues to grow and no trend change is expectedHorizon: 1 month
Target: $190
Potential of the idea: 20.41%
Entry volume: 10%
Stop order: $148
Technical analysis
The upward trend continues, the entry on the correction is relevant. With the volume of the position of 10% and placing a stop order at $148, the risk on the portfolio will be 0.62%. The profit/risk ratio is 3.29.
Fundamental factor
The Boeing Company is the world's leading aerospace corporation and the largest manufacturer of passenger aircraft. Q2 2022 reports showed that the company has been able to significantly reduce losses. Going forward, a return to profit generation could serve as a driver of the company's value growth.
ARRY - Array TechnologiesTop notch stock in the best group in the market right now (solar). Holding up well during the recent pullback in the broad market. It won't be able to buck the trend forever, but if the market as a whole begins to bounce or even just stabilize itself, it could allow this (and the other solar stocks) to really take off. The other two solar stocks on my focus list are SHLS & ENPH which arguably have cleaner setups, but the massive growth numbers draw me back to ARRY.
16 Year Cycle of Growth and Consolidation 1948 to 2022I think I have found a pattern of growth and consolidation of the economy and thereby of the stock market, where growth happens for almost 16 years and then it cools down for another 16 years.
Growth Phase 1 - 1948 - 1968
After World War 2 from 1948 there is huge growth in the world economy causing the SP500 to surge hugely from a low of 14.5 in 1949 to 108 in 1968 a massive growth of 660% over a period of almost 20 years, which means if you have invested 100$ in 1948 after 20 years you would have 760$ a 7.6x return.
Consolidation 1 - 1966 - 1983
With massive growth comes massive stagnation, and consolidation is a part of the economic cycle, from 1966 to 1983 SP500 only grew by 97%, 97% for a period of almost 17 years, if you have invested 100$ in 1966 after 17 years of wait you would only have 197$ which only 2x return.
Growth Phase 2 - Tech - 1982 - 2001
Integrated circuits, the tech that revolutionized the way we live, on the way of changing our lifestyle they have also created an enormous amount of wealth, from 1982 to 2001 sp500 grew by almost 1350% over a period of 19 years, if you have invested 100$ in 1982 you would have 1450$ 2001 which is a whooping 14.5X returns.
Consolidation 2 - 1996 - 2013
Consolidations are the time when if you are unlucky you wouldn't have made a dime in return even after waiting for 15 years in SP500, from 1996 to 2013 SP500 only grew by 120%, which means a 100$ invested in 96 only gives you 220$ in 2013 after waiting for almost 17 years all you would have is 120$ extra a measly 2.2X.
Growth Phase 3 - 2009 - ongoing
Finally, we have reached the phase we are currently living in, this is the phase where the dot com companies have become the blue-chip stocks that decide the fate of our economy, since 2009 SP500 has grown tremendously from 733 to the peak of Jan 2022 of 4750 which is almost 550% in growth, meaning if you have invested 100$ in 2009 you would have almost 550$ at the peak of Jan 2022 a huge 5.5X return in 13 years.
Since I don't have pro membership I couldn't add images to the post.
$ZM earnings may not be enough to save thisZM broke its rising line of higher lows this past week as if it is selling in anticipation of earnings. A number of overhead resistance levels to contend with. But I think it will live below the 135ish area for quite some time.
IMGN - ImmunoGen, Inc.Setup - simple base breakout after a solid 70% move off the lows followed by 5 weeks of consolidation. Earnings during consolidation were below expectation. However, after a slight selloff, shares were gobbled back up and volatility was squeezed out right below the breakout level. Half size because the broad market is running a bit hot and could be due for a pullback relatively soon.
earnings on deck for $RIVN beaten down growthFundamentally we all know that RIVN was overvalued from day one and was in many ways a poster child for the growth at all costs movement of 2020/21. However, after shedding 80% of its value perhaps it is finding some interest. Like most growth names it has picked up in recent weeks but still faces overhead supply on any large bull run.
All that said I have seen a fair number of their trucks on the roads of Colorado this summer and sales will eventually broaden. As long as they can keep up on both manufacturing and company management this may in the long run prove to be a good buy. I will be waiting for earnings before making a move myself.
not full blown recession... yetWatching the 3 mo and 2 year very closely. I think this is an indicator for a recession and not the 2 and 10's because it shows more that the short term risk is outweighing anything mid term.
Everything is is wishy washy with definitions now a days lol but this is going to be the icing on the cake for confirmations.
Looking at the dollar strength we had a little pullback buts its ready to resume higher putting more weakness on emerging markets and currencies and also US equities.
Looking at UVXY and the VIX i think that the 20 range for the vix is a newer normal in this market environment though UVXY is going really low now and almost oversold on the daily compared to where we are at in this little "recovery" thats been taking place.
a lot to digest in the macro perspective and we'll see what the terminal rate will end up being for the FED. exciting times.
That's all folks.
AMZN targets the 92-82 pandemic D.bottom low & Vol Profile zone?AMZN has been making an ABC correction since the 188 ATH. The decline was very fast once it failed
to hold the 150 volume profile zone. It has retraced exactly to 101, the 0.854 FIB of the 82 pandemic low to ATH. There was a little bounce but AMZN basically is just hovering around the 2016 TL while consolidating inside my red box without breaking the downtrend line.
LOOKING BEARISH. I think AMZN will target the pandemic low at 82 to make a double bottom ending hew
ABC correction. 82 is also the 0.618 FIB retracement from 14.20 (2015 low) to ATH. 82 is also the 1.618
Fib Extention of the ABC correction, making it a very strong support.
WARNING: There may still be a 20% downside from latest low at 101 as consumer discretionary will be the
first to suffer during an economic downturn.
Not trading advice
Do not fade the growth (risk on) trade above this levelThe ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is the poster child for growth appetite in this market environment. It's been left for dead in a cascade of selling throughout 2022, but most recently, it's been showing some relative strength, bottoming price action, and is in the process of breaking out to 2-month highs.
As long as ARKK is > 46.50, the growth (risk on) trade is on and should not be faded.
The best hedge - is growthINVESTMENT CONTEXT
In the wake of robust demand despite mounting recession fears, Saudi Aramco hiked its crude oil prices for Asia's market to near record on July 5. In August Arab Light crude price will sit at USD 9.30/boe above the regional benchmark
For the first time since May 11, WTI crude oil fell below USD 100/boe. According to Citigroup, oil price could plunge to USD 65boe by the end of this year, while JP Morgan forecasts oil at “stratospheric” USD 380/boe
On July 5, the ambassadors of 30 NATO States signed Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden, effectively kicking-off the ratification process, which usually takes one month
Inflation in the U.K. hit a fresh 40-year high, standing at 9.1% in June compared with 9.0% in May. The political stability of the country has come under pressure after Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid quit the Cabinet, citing divergences with Premier Boris Johnson in the matter of economic policy-making
Prices of corn, soybean, wheat, and several other agricultural commodities fell by more than 20% in recent weeks, largely reverting to pre-pandemic levels as financial players unmounted bearish speculative positions
Italy declared state of emergency for Northern regions facing the worst draught in 70 years, threatening 30% of Italian agriculture output.
PROFONE'S TAKE
Following the considerations about record high electricity prices in Europe, ProfOne's eyes are now set on nuclear plants, the development of which matches well with Europe's ambitious plan of energy transition and reduction of the reliance on Russian gas. Yet, as anticipated by ProfZero, a full-scale energy rotation will take time, and relevant capital investments, to happen. The nuclear plant of Olkiluoto in Finland entered construction phase in 2005 while that of Flamanville in France in 2007; both projects haven't been delivered yet, yet costs already exceeded original budgets by up to 3 times. With that in mind, and recalling that costs of renewable technologies based on solar and wind energy are declining, ProfOne understands why nuclear projects have become less attractive for investors. Nuclear requires the elaboration of new financing models and scaling strategies. Some near-term relief may be achieved through expansion of new small reactors, which are faster and easier to build; yet the vast majority of these assets have not fully come online yet.
PROFZERO'S TAKE
Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, aptly summarized what does it concretely mean to change economic paradigm: "Germany's growth model has been to import cheap energy from Russia, use that to assemble manufactured goods and export those goods to the rest of the world". Now that Russian natural gas deliveries are sputtering, Germany has posted its first monthly trade deficit since 1991, and the country has entered phase 2 of its 3-step energy emergency plan. ProfZero prefers to resist the urge of calling for capitulation; after all the country can re-activate coal-fired while it speeds up the construction of much-needed LNG regasification assets. Yet zooming out, the theme of energy independence is what actually is making the whole difference between the U.S. and the EU - and shall be a likely recurring theme for the next growth paradigm of the entire Western world
Seeing crude oil plummeting 10% in one single trading session can only mean that markets are bracing for a recession. Fundamentals don't lie: according to EIA, the world in 2022 will produce more crude oil than it really needs, with forecasted supply at 100.1mboe/d, and demand at 99.6mboe/d. ProfZero points out that one of the virtues of commodity markets lies in price-formation mechanisms strictly tied to basic supply-demand interplay. Sadly, the disruptions in European natural gas are preventing the same from happening; yet should frictions be erased, it is all too rational to expect also TTF to briskly retrace
Can give 20% return in 30 daysPlease refer chart for detailed explanation on technical analysis .
Find buying opportunity at/near support zone.
If you think my analysis is helpful than please do like my idea. For future reference do follow me so that you do not miss any of my analyses.
You can also check my other analysis where we achieved 15 to 20% return in short term. Link is shared below or else you can visit my profile and check all the Ideas which I have shared.
Feel free to leave any questions you have in the comments! I will gladly respond to them.
Hopefully, this helps you out a little bit. Please make your own research before investing.
P.S: This is not an investment advice. This chart is meant for learning purposes only. This is my personal viewpoint so please Invest your capital at your own risk
Best two wheeler stockPlease refer chart for detailed explanation on technical analysis .
If its breaks 600 level than there are chances it will go down to support 1 and 2
If you think my analysis is helpful than please do like my idea. For future reference do follow me so that you do not miss any of my analyses.
You can also check my other analysis where we achieved 15 to 20% return in short term. Link is shared below or else you can visit my profile and check all the Ideas which I have shared.
Feel free to leave any questions you have in the comments! I will gladly respond to them.
Hopefully, this helps you out a little bit. Please make your own research before investing.
P.S: This is not an investment advice. This chart is meant for learning purposes only. This is my personal viewpoint so please Invest your capital at your own risk
Rotation - After gyrationsINVESTMENT CONTEXT
S&P 500 Energy Sector has registered 10-trading day decline dropping by 23.7% as fears of recession and lower demand pushed traders to liquidate longer-dated positions
On June 23, all 33 of the U.S. biggest banks, some of which considered as systemically important, successfully passed the Fed's annual stress tests, confirming their ability to lend and maintain capital levels during severe economic breakdown
During the summit in Brussel on June 23, Ukraine and Moldova formally received the symbolic status of "candidates" to join the European Union
JPMorgan does not expect a recession to materialize over the next 12 month; according to the Bank, global growth will accelerate from 1.3% in the first half of 2022 to 3.1% in the second part of the year thanks to recovery of Chinese economy
On a different note, Germany warned that Russia's move to curb natural gas deliveries to Europe could trigger an economic downfall similar to that caused by Lehman Brothers at the onset of the Great Financial Crisis
Copper prices recorded 16-month low on June 23 because of growing worries about rising COVID-19 cases in China and stoking worries of a global economy recession
PROFZERO'S TAKE
As the world finally takes notice that there won't be a solution to the current industrial crisis unless a global strategy on energy emerges, ProfZero has witnessed the steep correction faced already by commodities just on fears of a recession. Brent crude has plunged to USD 110/boe after some bull analysts forecasted it could top its all time high at USD 147.50/boe (July 2008); iron and copper are down 30% and 17%, respectively, on a monthly basis, while also wheat prices retraced 25% from the all-time high touched on May 17. Albeit encouraging under an inflation perspective, these signs may be indicative of greater distress in commodities - hence more stringent need to quickly restructure global supply chains, particularly as soft commodities are exposed to extreme conditions (Italy drought)
Growth stocks roared back on June 24, as traders unloaded Value and commodity-driven stocks repositioning in favor of the battered tech segments. ProfZero argues the move comes as investors reassess the likelihood of a recession, which would undoubtedly punish cyclical players, starting from big-ticket items (automotive, leisure operators) down to non-core consumer goods (non-food retail, handheld devices). As Growth trades still at record lows, it might be a good chance to start fishing for opportunities before the next cycle kicks-in - yet bearing in mind that within the next 2 weeks markets will still likely face volatility spikes due to June inflation reading in the U.S. (ProfZero does not expect a major slowdown yet from May's 8.6%) and Q2 earning season
After Citi and Deutsche Bank located the probability of a recession in the U.S. at 50%, JP Morgan historical bull Marko Kolanovic reiterated his positive stance for a soft landing in the second half of the year, thanks to solid Chinese recovery and stabilizing geo-political conditions, including the conflict in Ukraine . As much as in May, ProfZero fails to share Mr. Kolanovic constructive tone. Although fully persuaded the war in Ukraine shall end, any tangible sign of relief for the world economy will take months to materialize. In China, President Xi has confirmed the country will achieve the 5.50% GDP growth target it set; yet, it remains to be seen then how the country will cope with its internal hurdles in real estate and rampant industrial overcapacity (steel)
Don't fear the capitulationINVESTMENT CONTEXT
Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the key priority of the Fed is bringing down inflation, even while acknowledging that monetary policy can't address critical components like food and energy. Powell also a stated a recession is “certainly possible,” but not in the near term as the U.S. economy remains “in good shape.”
Turkey's central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 14% on June 23, after it kept interest rates deeply below zero when adjusted for inflation. Norway's Norges Bank is instead set to hike its key rate 25bps to 0.75%
Russia is facing three interest payment transfers totaling almost USD 400mln on June 23-24, but more pressing is a Sunday-night deadline on previous missed payments from late May. If the country fails to make those payment - ca. USD 100mln of bond coupons - it will effectively be declared in default
Global bank Citi said the probability of a recession is now approaching 50%. The Bank expects 3% growth for the world economy this year and 2.8% in 2023
U.S. President Joe Biden called for a gasoline tax holiday, in an effort to relief households from pump gasoline prices, which briefly surpassed USD 5/gallon
BTC trades have entered a dangerous (4) channel with trading range set between 19-21k as volumes fail to return to the blockchain space
PROFZERO'S TAKE
Value investing has been the key theme across Q1 and most part of Q2 this year, as investors unloaded Growth assets whose bulk of profits are located deep into the future, hence more exposed to higher interest/discount rates. That trend is set to reverse should a recession materialize. In particular, the undisputed champions of the past 150 days, namely Oil & Gas stocks, may steeply retrace as energy demand is threatened by slowing pace of industrial expansion, particularly in China. ProfZero warned back in April that the fat dividends paid this year may dwindle in 2023 as a protracted bear market triggers a recession; consistent with that, ProfZero maintains faith in Value-like Growth stocks, which enjoy state-of the-art balance sheets; top cash generation; and most importantly excel at intangible assets and services - natural price deflators for the economy
ProfZero concurs with ProfThree thinking one step ahead - demand for industrial commodities is by definition pre-cyclical, and any slowdown in the near-term should be taken as an early sign of a cooling global economy. Seeing Brent crude tumbling more than 2% just on recession concerns confirms in ProfZero a sense of unease while looking forward on Energy equities; thinking even further though, the feeling of concern permeates the post-recession recovery, whose seeds do not look planted as of yet
PROFTHREE'S TAKE
One of the commodities to watch this week is iron ore, which has seen a slump to USD 110/ton on June 20 after topping USD 150/ton just two weeks ago. Profs’ eyes are obviously on China (ca. 60% of global steel output), where demand seems to be under threat following the news that steel mills are cutting production in response to weakening real estate sector. ProfThree contends iron ore quotes are finally close to their fundamentally justified levels after a long period of speculation-driven pricing. Yet, a further dramatic correction could still happen since the second half of this year is expected to bring an increase in steel output from China, compensating for the 10% y-o-y output reduction in Q1 due to the Olympics-related emission restrictions. ProfThree also sees infrastructure spending and targeted fiscal as well as monetary stimulus also to prove supportive to supply, thus boosting prices
TSLA 2021 fractal points to a 540 to 800 range for 3Q2022Don’t expect TSLA to break above 800 in the very short future. If we take the May 2021 yellow box fractal as a guide, the volatility range this 3Q will be between 540 & 800 or even until Oct or Nov of 2022.
WHY LOOKING BEARISH: Even Elon himself is preparing for a downturn by reducing labor force. On the technical side, since breaking below 800 in early May2022, TSLA has just been pivoting around the 700 zone unable to recover 800 but instead, it is making lower highs & lower lows this whole June.
My M-pattern scenario might still play out with the bottom coming at around 540 or even 420. (I just have a hunch Elon will defend the 542 zone with his illogical TWTR offer price also at 54.20 per share). My maximum pain level of 420 happens to be a 1.618 retracement of the wave B rally. Ending this ABC correction will start wave 5, probably to do a melt-up top before recession kicks in in 2023.
EV may be a shortterm solution for current fuel crisis but the chip shortage & charging infrastructure are still headwinds. The expensive cost of EV & EV batteries is also delaying a migration from gasoline & diesel vehicles.
Not trading advice
Running up that hill - but then?INVESTMENT CONTEXT
Analysts sharply raised the probability of a recession, while the Fed announced its support to yet another 75bps rate hike in July
A worldwide measure of people’s inflation expectations over the next year was more than 4% in May, up from 2.3% a year ago
Russia cut 60% of natural gas supply to Europe via Nord Stream 1 pipeline; cuts are now estimated to have reached 50% to Austria and Germany and 45% to Italy
Germany announced it would take emergency measures, including restarting coal-fired power plants, to cushion the impact of lower gas supplies from Russia
Turkey offered its support to extending safe grain export corridors from Ukrainian ports
A delegation from the IMF arrived in Colombo, Sri Lanka's capital, to discuss a rescue package after the country declared default on its international debt
Three Arrows Capital failed to meet demands to provide extra collateral to meet margin calls on digital currency positions
PROFZERO'S TAKE
Carefully monitoring equities after last week's collapse - not even energy stocks, the clear overperformers of the first 150 days of the year, were spared by the rush to sell. Balancing now Value with Growth may become the major challenge for investors as we head into recession - where the winners of the next decade are dictated
Ireland's Finance Minster Paschal Donohoe expressed positive views on the Eurozone, asserting that the balance sheets of the continent's States are in much better shapes then 10 years back, when the contagion of Greece's debt crisis was feared to spill over to Italy and Spain, triggering a spiraling domino effect of defaults. ProfZero unfortunately does not share Mr. Donohoe's optimism. Countries like Italy deeply enjoyed the not-so-implicit backing of the ECB when it came to rolling over government debt in the open market after the investor confidence meltdown in November 2011 - yet no tangible reforms revived the nation's growth and productivity statistics, while public spending rather than targeting infrastructural changes was aimed at winning political approval in the form of heftier unemployment cheques. Taken together, Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio in fact ballooned from 126.5% in 2012 to 150.8% in 2021; inflation may definitely play a role smoothing the nominal debt load, but interest rates are already guiding fixed income traders to bet against the country's solvency, to the point that the ECB had to backtrack on its announcement regarding the end of the EUR 20bn monthly bond-buying program. ProfZero recently reiterated that from an inflation crisis this could easily spiral into a credit downfall; China already had its Evergrande moment. Let's hope the world will suffer a little more piccolo
ProfZero often gets asked "Is it the right time to buy?" - The right question would rather be: "Why and what am I buying?" Until we flip our mindset to that, we'll be just chasing trends, ending up being eaten by the sharks
PROFONE'S TAKE
Following the considerations about the energy of future, ProfOne’s eyes are set on green hydrogen, a promising alternative fuel facing ever-growing demand. Hydrogen has been demonstrated to enjoy potential to replace natural gas in power-hungry industries like cement, steel, ceramics and fertilizers. In the context of de-carbonisation and energy security, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, governments and energy companies upped their investments in green hydrogen: BP (BP) has taken a 40.5% stake in a USD 30bn green hydrogen production project in Australia, while Spain is bidding to become the first green hydrogen hub in Europe. Amidst growing enthusiasm, ProfOne is curious how producers will deal with the challenges of storage and transportation, other than the extremely high production costs. Today's green hydrogen is based on clean electricity from renewable energy; as such, it is ca. 5x more expensive than grey hydrogen (actually the most common, coming from natural gas without emissions recapture). The energy equation has 3 variables: security, reliability and affordability. To date, all known sources can satisfy but 2 at a time - green hydrogen included
US10Y making H&S topping pattern with long weekly hammer?US10Y TNX may be topping out. It is both a measure of economic activity & inflation expectation. So is the economy starting to slow down or is inflation slowing down shortterm? It will take years for inflation to come down. If the FED can pull inflation down to at least 4% in a soft landing, it will already be a big success. Stagflation (rising inflation in a slowing economy) is still a big risk, which may take years to recover. A hard landing & aggressive rate hikes may be devastating for stocks but the economy may recover faster. More pain more gain.
A topping TNX will be good for TLT bonds & growth stocks. Next supports are 3% & the H&S neck at 2.7%. A measured move for H&S may take TNX to the yellow 2% upper pivot zone, retesting the blue wedge or maybe to retest the big red downchannel from 1981.
Not trading advice
SHOP: BOUNCE ZONESHOP (Shopify) has dropped 70% since November 2021.
Yes we can drop more. However I like the risk reward ratio here as the price is now sitting on a trend line (in green) connecting the lows of Nov 2019, March 2020 and March 2022.
The weekly RSI is slightly oversold and we're starting to see a bullish divergence .
Bonds are bouncing already, which could support a bounce in growth stocks .
I'm a buyer at this level for a possible bounce to 640. I can cut my position quickly and without too much damage if I'm wrong.
If we drop more, the next levels are between 437 and 413...
Trade safe.
