Elliott Wave View: Alphabet (GOOGL) Pullback Should Find SupportShort-term Elliott wave view in Alphabet (GOOGL) suggests the rally from October 04, 2021 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave IV low, with internal subdivision as 5 waves in lesser degree wave (1) ended at 2744.49 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 2688.00. Wave (3) continues higher building 5 swings more which ended at 2808.85 and pullback in wave (4) ended at 2775.00. The last push to complete wave (5) and the first swing up as wave ((1)) finished at 2814.24,
From here, GOOGL has started a pullback that should be the beginning of wave ((2)). Expect wave ((2)) dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes to continue developing the 5 waves impulse. In lesser degree wave (A) of ((2)) is building one more leg lower to complete it. Then we are calling a corrective structure as wave (B) that should fail for one more drop to complete an (A), (B) and (C) waves correction of wave ((2). Near term, as far as pivot at 2620.65 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
GOOGL
Do you think the "Google Mania" will keep going up? Today we will take a look at GOOGL.
a) Since the bottom of the 2020 pandemic, the price has been on a major rally, gaining more than 150%
b) The basic formations we have been observing are corrective structures ranging from 25 to 40 days before new impulses coming.
c) Currently, we can see a new corrective pattern above the broken ascending channel.
d) If the pattern we have been observing keeps working as in the past, then this should be another situation where a bullish resolution may come.
e) What are our filters? First, the green horizontal line, we will ONLY consider this view as active if the price reaches that level.
f) The invalidation level will be below the current corrective structure. (2600.00)
g) To define targets, we have used Fibo Extensions; we have two levels that can be used as take-profit zones.
h) Based on previous behavior, we can expect a resolution between 100 and 150 days.
Thanks for reading!
Google, 7 OCT - Elliott waves | Gann | Astrology $GOOGAlphabet, as expected, bounced off the 20 week MA (in red), and we closed longs at Gann level 2651. But the count hints at more downside in the mid-term.
Since the ATH, price declined in ABC patterns, so that we can assume a WXY or a complex ABC is unfolding.
If correct, sellers may step in at the 20D MA again. A possible area is the blue box (.618 to .786 Fib).
Ascendant conjuncts natal Jupiter on 9 OCT. The following trading days 11-12 OCT have higher probability for bearish price action. We may watch out for an expansion of volatility again. A short idea could be interesting at that point, however needs further confirmation.
______________
www.constellations.trade
In my analyses I combine Elliott waves, Gann theory, and planetary aspects to identify turning points in the markets & derive high-probability trading ideas. The strategy is to build leveraged exposure when markets are likely to expand, and to use options premium decay for consistent income when markets may contract and range.
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These abbreviations in the chart describe ideas that are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial advice:
STO = sell to open
BTC = buy to close
BTO = buy to open
STC = sell to close
TD = Theta Decay (for example a strangle or iron condor)
Disclaimer:
The views and ideas expressed in this analysis are that of the maker. They are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial or trading advice.
GOOGLE Alphabet | Fundamental Analysis + NEXT TARGET Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is one of the largest technology businesses in the world. If you had invested $1,000 in the company's IPO back then, your investment would be worth about $63,500 today.
That's great news for early investors, but those who don't already own Alphabet may wonder if it's too late to buy stock in this FAANG company. Today we'll look at a few convincing judgments to buy Alphabet, as well as one reason to sell it, to see if it's still a good long-term investment.
First, the company is a powerful energy in online advertising.
Alphabet's expansive ecosystem includes the world's most popular search engine, a mobile operating system (Android), a streaming video site (YouTube), a Web browser (Chrome), and an e-mail platform (Gmail).
All of these platforms support Google's core advertising business, which sells search, display, and video ads on all of its platforms. According to eMarketer, Google is likely to account for 28.6 percent of all digital ad spending worldwide this year, putting it in the first place, ahead of Facebook's 25.2 percent.
All of Google's smaller competitors and Facebook - such as Alibaba, Amazon, and Tencent Holdings - still hold single-digit shares of the digital advertising market. So any business looking to advertise online is likely to visit Google and Facebook before considering other platforms.
Last year, Alphabet's ad revenue from Google grew 9% to $146.9 billion, or 80% of the company's total revenue, even though the pandemic caused businesses to buy fewer ads. In the first half of 2021, Google's ad revenue grew 50% year over year to $95.1 billion as the negative factors associated with the pandemic subsided.
Second is the growth of Google Cloud.
Google's advertising business slowed temporarily in 2020, but Google Cloud revenue grew 46% to $13.1 billion as cloud usage accelerated during the pandemic. In the first half of 2021, segment revenues grew another 50% year over year to $8.7 billion.
Google Cloud is not yet profitable, according to Canalys, and it still ranks a distant third in the cloud infrastructure market behind Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure.
But Google Cloud continues to expand and win over an expanding listing of major partners, including Target, Home Depot, Twitter, and PayPal. Many of these customers probably don't want to support Amazon's most profitable business (as they compete with its retail business) or tie themselves to other Microsoft enterprise services.
Google Cloud's profitability should expand as it improves, but until then it can subsidize its growth with its more profitable advertising business. According to Research and Markets, the global cloud computing market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1 percent from 2021 to 2028, so Google's cloud business could grow faster than its core advertising business for the foreseeable future.
Third, it's a reasonable valuation of the company.
Analysts expect Alphabet's revenues and profits to grow 37% and 72%, respectively, this year, amid an easy comparison to the impact of the pandemic on the advertising business. Next year, they expect revenues and profits to grow 17% and 5%, respectively, as comparisons with last year normalize.
Based on these expectations, Alphabet is trading at 26 times earnings guidance and 7 times sales guidance, making it more reasonably valued than many of the more "bloated" growth stocks in the tech sector.
But there is still one cause for concern: antitrust risks.
Alphabet's core businesses look strong, but a series of antitrust battles could undermine its growth.
Last October, the U.S. Department of Justice filed an antitrust suit against Google for allegedly monopolizing the online search and search-based advertising market, and is reportedly preparing to file a second antitrust suit to address Google's dominance in certain advertising technologies. Two separate coalitions of states have also filed their lawsuits against Google over its search and advertising business.
The European Commission previously investigated Google Shopping, Google AdSense, and Android, after which it accused Google of using these platforms to drive competitors out of their respective markets. These antitrust investigations led to three separate fines totaling more than $8 billion and forced Google to stop bundling its third-party apps with new Android devices in Europe. If the DOJ case follows a similar path, Google could face even more fines and demands to unbundle its ecosystem.
Google also bears additional antitrust encounters in Australia, India, and South Korea, and more countries may join the process. All of these pressures could prevent investors from paying a higher premium for Alphabet stock.
Alphabet's antitrust problems can't be ignored, but they don't negate its strengths just yet. Alphabet will likely continue to grow, even if fines and new restrictions get in its way.
In a worst-case scenario, Alphabet could be split into several smaller companies. Nevertheless, Alphabet investors would likely get new shares of these smaller companies that could continue to grow on their own without being tied to Google's sprawling ecosystem.
Google, 1 OCT - Elliott waves | Gann | Astrology $GOOGAlphabet approaches Gann level 2651 and we can count 5 waves to the downside (green count).
The 20 week MA (red) is located below at 2630.
An idea would be to reduce short exposure on Gann level and further observe if buyers step in.
Ascendent conjuncts natal Mercury today, however it stands in trine to natal North Node. Mars squares natal Venus on 2 OCT. Overall rather mixes signals.
Alphabet’s Waymo received a license to offer self-driving rides in California, an important development for the company. Until 8 OCT the Irish govt. is to decide on joining OECD corporate tax proposals, which may impact Alphabet’s margins so that we need to be careful with long positions.
______________
www.constellations.trade
In my analyses I combine Elliott waves, Gann theory, and planetary aspects to identify turning points in the markets & derive high-probability trading ideas. The strategy is to build leveraged exposure when markets are likely to expand, and to use options premium decay for consistent income when markets may contract and range.
Open an account here if you'd like to support my work:
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Binance
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These abbreviations in the chart describe ideas that are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial advice:
STO = sell to open
BTC = buy to close
BTO = buy to open
STC = sell to close
TD = Theta Decay (for example a strangle or iron condor)
Disclaimer:
The views and ideas expressed in this analysis are that of the maker. They are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial or trading advice.
Google, 29 SEP - Elliott waves | Gann | Astrology $GOOGAlphabet hit resistance at Gann level 2861 and began to lead the market in yesterday’s selloff. As expected from the Nasdaq analysis we can recognise an unfolding wave (c), which is reflected in GOOG as well.
If the green count is accurate, GOOG may have completed wave iii, so that we can look for a potential wave iv with a retrace to the .382 Fib level (blue box).
Waves 4 are hard to trade but due to their choppiness we may profit from a brief contraction of implied volatility when selling premium.
If wave C continues to unfold we may look at the next levels for potential supports:
- 2699, wave (a)=(c) equality
- 2651 Gann level
- 2549 and 2559, Gann level & 1.618 Fib level
On 29 SEP three minor Mars/Moon constellations occur.
Correlations: DXY continues its exceptional strength as yield spiked, but Gold and Bitcoin has started to rise again, which could potentially be an early indicator that USD may begin to slow. EURUSD is at support level as well. A declining USD would help the yield-sensitive tech sector.
______________
www.constellations.trade
In my analyses I combine Elliott waves, Gann theory, and planetary aspects to identify turning points in the markets & derive high-probability trading ideas. The strategy is to build leveraged exposure when markets are likely to expand, and to use options premium decay for consistent income when markets may contract and range.
Open an account here if you'd like to support my work:
TastyTrade
America's best Options, Futures and Crypto broker
start.tastyworks.com
Deribit
The world's most liquid Bitcoin options platform
www.deribit.com
Binance
10% off trading fees with this link:
accounts.binance.me
These abbreviations in the chart describe ideas that are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial advice:
STO = sell to open
BTC = buy to close
BTO = buy to open
STC = sell to close
TD = Theta Decay (for example a strangle or iron condor)
Disclaimer:
The views and ideas expressed in this analysis are that of the maker. They are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial or trading advice.
$GOOGL | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 9/27Another name that we called the bottom on perfectly. No changes since the last time I posted. Bounced exactly where I showed on the chart. Now, looking for breakout above the red resistance line. Please note the descending broadening wedge pattern which is BULLISH!
Looking to enter a long position on break above red resistance line to test $2900 and ATH.