4/10 Watchlist + Notes Initial Thoughts - Solid week last week, questionably bullish this coming week, lots of finance/bank stocks report ER this week, CPI this week.
SPY - On Wednesday I mentioned on my watchlist that I was cautiously bearish for a few reasons. Turned out my suspicions were valid because we pushed lower early on in the day Thursday before pumping the rest of the day to create a bullish engulfing daily candle. I was really hoping this wouldn't happen, but we play the cards that we are dealt. Going into next week, and specifically monday, I am looking for a move to the upside. I am still hoping we overall head lower on the week, but it seems like we could be due for a retest of that 412 level we touched on last week. I have upside targets loosely set at the 410 and 412 areas. I am still remaining cautious as we are still at a critical level on the longer time frames, CPI data comes out this week, and there are some heavy ER reports coming from the financial sector, which could all make this coming week very volatile. OVERALL BIAS: Skeptically Bullish. I think we test 410 for sure either in premarket or RTH. Once again, I am basing my bias on what is in front of us, and what makes the most sense for the next session. Expecting this week to be very volatile
Watchlist + Bias:
AAPL - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
PFE - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
BIDU - 2-1 Daily: Bearish
PEP - 2-1 Daily: Bullish
BABA - 2-1 Weekly: Bullish
CRM - 2-1 Weekly: Neutral (Sitting at FVG on weekly)
SQ - 3-1-1 Weekly: Bullish
Main Watch:
SQ - Was watching this one last Thursday and we didn't go anywhere. I have high hopes that we will break out to the upside this week. Entry around 70, stop below 66. Targets around the 80 and 83 area. Simple as that. More to be said about this one come end of day monday, but for now, we are going into monday off of a bullish engulfing candle on the daily.
Previous main watch:
SQ - not a winner or loser. Explanation above
Stats from last weeks watchlists:
4/4 on SPY predictions
3/4 on Main Watch Plays. (technically 4/5 but im not counting thursday)
Top winner: DOCU (400%+)
Personal Stats:
4/5 Win/Loss (80% Winrate)
Overall green week
Slow start but finished well
Good luck tomorrow. Watch SPY and VIX at all times throughout the week
Google (Alphabet)
GOOGLE (GOOG) Trade UpdatesRecap on my position on Google, Apple and Facebook, the 3 bit techs I have in my portfolio.
Google spectacular entry and obviously also lucky. ($85.94)
There is still a long way to go, for a share that from the highs of February 22, at the time of my entry had lost about 45%.
I remain in position with a generous 20% profit, there is a lot of volume structure to recover, and it is not yet the time to bring home part of the profits.
As always, I give some indications purely for personal purposes:
Short-term target: $115
Medium-term target: $125
Long-term target (mine): Historical highs
So I find myself holding the stock indefinitely, I’ll take home something for $125 to cover operating costs but I don’t want to do anything else.
If the price retraces I have other entry levels that I mentioned in previous posts.
I also leave my update on Apple (up 23%) and Meta (+18%).
All in all, a good month.
Keep moving forward!
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
3/30 Watchlist + Notes SPY - Interesting day on SPY. We said yesterday that the markets could realistically go either way, but we were watching more so to the downside due to the failed 2U formed on Monday that was followed by a 2D yesterday, and having that small bearish bias by simply playing what is in front of us vs using other reasons for bias. SPY ended up gapping up premarket and closing green on the day with little to no upside wick. Based on today's movement, I believe that we will see some continuation to the upside tomorrow. With that being said, we still have the gap created in premarket to fill. I think that we will test last weeks high at 402.49 either tomorrow or Friday, but I do think that it will happen at some point sooner rather than later. I am open to playing both sides tomorrow, but it will depend on whether we break today's high and test last weeks high, or if we break today's low and try to fill that gap to the downside. It is worth noting also that we are sitting on the weekly upper trendline Final thoughts: I am forced to have a bullish bias for tomorrow, which I believe to be about 75% valid. I still think there is a chance we fill that downside gap before pushing higher
Watchlist + Bias:
AMD - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
COST - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
PFE - 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bullish
GOOG - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
NFLX - 2-1 Daily: Bullish
JNJ - 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bullish
FDX - 3-1-2U Weekly: Bullish - Today we broke out of the 3-1 weekly setup to the upside. Looking to target 226.06
Main Watch:
JNJ and GOOG
JNJ - Weekly chart is indicating we have hit a low and are looking to reverse to the upside soon. Going into tomorrow, I am hoping to see us continue up to the 154.13 level before hopefully taking out 154.54
GOOG - GOOG has room to both sides. There is a large FVG on both sides as well that relate to my targets for each side. To the downside, we have a daily FVG at yesterdays low of 100.28. To the upside we have a FVG starting at yesterdays high of 103.00, and I also have a target at the 50% retrace of that upside FVG at 103.87. Both of these targets are easily attainable in my opinion for tomorrow depending on which side we break out to. I don't have a bias as to which side id rather play, but I think that it will more so depend on how the markets are moving as a whole tomorrow. Remember, with these 2-1 setups, we are looking to play WITH momentum and not fight it.
Yesterday's Main Watch:
MRNA: (Status:) Loser (Personally Trade?) No
MRNA broke yesterdays high within the first 5 minutes of market open, which is not what we were looking for. We were looking to play downside only, and because of this movement, we did not enter. It is worth noting that both times MRNA broke yesterdays high, it was almost immediately shot back down, which shows that we would have gotten smoked if we tried playing upside. This is a good example of why we look at longer time frames like the weekly and monthly to develop a bias, and then stick to that bias.
Watchlist Stats For The Week:
2/3 on SPY predictions
2/3 on Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: NVDA (75%+)
Personal Stats:
4/6 For The Week:
Overall Green/Red?: Green (Day and Week)
Google -> The Stock Is BackHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Google stock has been trading in a range for quite some time now, you can also see that the upper resistance of this trading range is exactly at $105.
You can also see that we are currently again retesting this resistance area, from a weekly perspective the market seems definitely ready for a breakout so I think that this time Google stock will actually break above this key resistance area.
On the daily timeframe I am now just waiting for a breakout above this resistance area and if we then get a retest and bullish confirmation, it is quite likely that from there we will then see more continuation towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Alphabet Price Prediction 2023 (LONG)Alphabet Long price prediction for end of 2023 following Gann analysis and Fibonacci retracement, as usual.
LEVELS
Conservative: 98.30 USD (+ 9%)
Moderate: 103.40 USD (+ 13.7%)
Most realistic: 107.3 USD (+ 17.9%)
High Risk ( out of Fibonacci ): 113.3 USD (+ 24.46%)
Unrealistic ( still inside of Gann ): 130 USD (+ 42.75%)
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TSLA Daily. 180 Support Lost5 waves down all the way to ~100 to end 2022. Huge bounce all the way to 200dma and key resistance area that has rejected. 180 support failing ... looks like we'll move towards the gap fill at 145
Through the first 2 months of 2023, retail investors have bought ~$10B worth of Telsa, more than any other stock/ETF (compared to ~$4B of $SPY). What could go wrong? 🤓
$QQQ $NQ_F $NDX $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $SOX $ES_F $SPX $TLT $TNX $VIX #Stocks 📉
The GOOG ... RevisitedI had published an idea on GOOG in August suggesting one more decline to finish the correction. Here I am again suggesting the same.
It looks like a double zigzag correction has unfolded... There should be a move to the lower channel line ahead...a pretty significant move.
Position a short on a retracement at a little higher price? You could use a price over the white trendline as a stop point.
Here is a weekly using candle bars for an alternate view
Possible Adam/Eve double bottom The pattern appears to be an Adam/Eve double bottom with a breakout target to ~ 120. The price broke out of the Eve on strong volume. The price is currently retesting the price between Adam and Eve. If the price holds 94/95 then hopefully the price action will play out. I am not sure where a SL would be placed, but the risk/reward here is good with a tight SL.
Only negative will be the CPI print next week with its usual volatility.
Not financial advice.
Google what's next?If $GOOG does not implement, in its search engine, within the first week of March 2023, a competitor to ChatGPT, then IMO, their revenue will hurt in Q2 of 2023, and in my estimation, their Q1 2023 revenue will also be a disappointment. The stock price could be headed to $71.20 in the near future.
LONG Term GOOG DCARe-entered the market after several months on the sideline waiting for longer term indicators to look positive.
I believe this is a suitable spot to start DCA again into high conviction companies and stocks.
High conviction in the company for the long term✅
Money flow on the monthly in the red ✅
RSI Oversold on the monthly ✅
Trading around significant support (@0.5 AT Fib)✅
Market Cipher on the monthly around the 'buy-zone' ❓*
*Market Cipher not yet indicating buy, however, weekly green indicator with the above indicates the monthly buy-signal is near - hence comfortable to DCA as within my personal risk tolerances)
** NOT TRADING OR FINANCIAL ADVICE **
Good time to start buying GOOGLEYou know all the teck stocks are rebounding hard, and Google was about to rebound as well; but Google's unsatisfactory debut of AI Bard became a good source for panic sell.
This kind of stuff is temporary, and the macro trend will override the micro(temporary) trend.
Thus, this temporary dump or retrace is actually really a good chance to buy in.
If you really like Google and believe that Google will continue to do well in 3~5 years, you should definitely dive in.
Good entry price will be around $95~$84.
You will enjoy at least +30% profit within 2023.
That's not crazy profit, but yeah that's a solid profit.
Disclaimer: Even though this is a good chance, I believe crypto will give me better profit; so I am not buying any Google.
GOOG: Bottom Completion FailureGOOG shows a failure to complete a bottom. The stock moved up and above the resistance level that needs to sustain to complete its bottom, but it failed to sustain the gains.
This stock was part of the last New Tech Virtual Course I did, since it is developing several new technologies for its own use and to sell to other companies. AI is the big competition area right now, so GOOG may see added volatility this year as the market reacts to AI feature releases, as it did today.
But the support range at the lows of this bottom formation is strong due to a Dark Pool Buy Zone that has been consistent.
GOOG Alphabet Options Ahead of Earnings | Last Quarter of GrowthAs you can see, the last chart was pretty accurate:
Now I think this year we will see Google losing ground in the advertising industry.
The Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit Tuesday against Google alleging the company of abusing its dominance over smaller rivals by operating like an illegal monopoly.
MSFT Microsoft bought a 49% stake in OpenAI, who owns CHatGPT, that ca really be a rival to Google in answering questions.
As a matter of fact i am using ChatGPT more than Google search right now.
So i believe this is the last quarter of growth for GOOG / GOOGL, as you can see in the chat, because Q4 was not impacted by ChatGPT so much.
Looking at the GOOG Alphabet options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $100 strike price Calls with
2023-2-10 expiration date for about
$2.66 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Google Earnings tomorrow. Google is near resistance but could push up a bit to tage and test the breakout trendline.
The Fear and Greed index has now been trading in the fear side for 2 weeks.
Usually prolonged trading in the Fear range foreshadows a near term downward pressure. What makes this intersting is the Fear index range was just tagged on the monthly & Daily time frame.
$QQQ: Quarterly trend expiring...The quarterly timeframe chart had a trend signal that formed when the market broke out of the range that formed before and after the pandemic shock and subsequent lock public health, fiscal and monetary policies impacted equities. The stimulus driven bonanza ended and the market topped as the world knew the Fed would embark in quantitative tightening to normalize policy. Very curiously even perma bears and perma wrong value investors waiting for a dip got bullish, marking interesting contrarian signals for a top in late Nov 2021.
Now that the tides have turned, former winners have become the worst performers and riskiest assets to own long term due to the change in fundamental variables and the huge bubble that formed and is popping right now. The weekly $QQQ chart could flash a big weekly down trend during next week, for that reason I bot a put spread expiring on June 17 to reduce my portfolio's risk and profit, being this bear put spread OTM one of my main bearish plays I got going right now. If price stays below the weekly mode area for the whole week, the signal will confirm and we will see the Nasdaq names slide down dramatically until mid June easily. Longer term, this chart pattern points to a decline lasting well into 2024, and suggesting painful downside can happen in this ETF and associated names.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
GOOGLE (GOOG) Trade UpdatesGoogle (GOOG) Trade Updates
I entered November (see previous post) near the bottom with a price of 85.87, a profit of 13% so far, but the road is still long.
The volume knot near POC held up well, but the upper areas are very well covered.
Here too, as for AMZN, my target is the historical highs, even if for the medium term, the target is $115-120.
To keep an eye on earnings, Google is a company that I personally consider on a par with Apple, despite having a lower market cap, but has recently had some internal problems, which have seen significant layoffs in the staff.
This could also be positive in terms of the budget, you always have to look at the bigger picture.
Artificial intelligence, automatic driving and augmented reality remain the sectors to be monitored, clearly the core business remains the search engine and the revenues from the ads generated, also pay attention to the technology used in the Stadia project; it could be resold under license to other giants of the video game industry.
In conclusion, very negative earnings could push the price towards the $70 level, where I would increase my position.
Targets:
short: get out now
medium: 115-120$
long : $151
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
Google Analysis 22.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
Technical Analysis of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)Hello guys,
I am sharing with you my analysis of Google.
I think the stock looks pretty cheap at the moment and it is forming a beautiful Double Bottom.
This is further supported by a MACD Bullish cross and upward trending RSI, which is above the 50 line.
Overall I think it has an appealing risk-to-reward opportunity.
What do you think?