First Official TradeWeekly Options Expires 13 May 16. Strikes Sell 690 Strike. Buy 685 Strike. Must stay above
Google (Alphabet)
Google longThis is about to go up very fast with key areas being $745 and $773. If it breaks $781 then be ready to sell around $798.
Triple top pattern with broken line that is about to be tested Alphabet will have its earnings this week.
$GOOG chart has formed a bearish setup that can be used if you think $GOOG is heading down after earnings.
1. triple top
2. Daily resistance zone
3. Broken uptrend line about to be tested (resistance now)
4. 78.6, 88.6 Fibs are considered reversal levels.
Considering the low volume rally and the strong resistance, it is an interesting bearish setup however earnings can boost this stock above 800$ so be careful if you choose to trade it.
Tomer Jakov, The MarkeZone (@themarketzone on Twitter)
Read more about this setup and more on my Weekly Newsletters - goo.gl
To subscribe to the newsletters - goo.gl
Follow my blog - goo.gl
Subscribe to my Youtube channel - goo.gl
NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS: NFLX, YHOO, GOOG, OTHERSNext week brings in a bevvy of earnings plays, but not all are worth of a premium selling, implied volatility contraction play.
These are the best among the offerings currently to play either via short strangle or iron condor, although others could naturally come to the forefront if implied volatility increases dramatically immediately before earnings.
NFLX: implied volatility rank/percentile: 48; implied volatility: 57. Ordinarily, I look to enter these plays when the implied volatility percentile is greater than 70% and the implied volatility is greater than 50%, so I'd like to see vol a bit higher here. Announces earnings on Monday after market close, so look to put on a play shortly before the end of the NY session. Preliminarily, a 78% POP April 29th 94.5/130 short strangle is offering a $185 credit/contract, but it could also be played via iron condor for a smaller, although not insubstantial credit.
YHOO: implied volatility rank/percentile: 56; implied volatility: 42. The vol metrics aren't great here, but worth a watch for a small play. Announces earnings on Tuesday after market close. Preliminarily, a 72% POP April 29th 33.5/39.5 short strangle goes for $71/contract.
GOOG: implied volatility rank/percentile: 45; implied volatility: 29. Another one to watch, but the vol metrics aren't really there right now. Announces earnings on Thursday after market close. Preliminarily, a 76% POP April 29th 700/820 short strangle will bring in $788/contract, but due to the size of the underlying, I'd probably go iron condor here. The other drawback of the underlying is poor liquidity, so look for a fill of any setup up somewhat above the mid price.
Naturally, there are others that may pop at the last minute, so it's a good idea to watch all of them as their earnings come up one by one, keeping in what to look for in good earnings plays (See Posts Below).
3 Days and price still around 61.8%In the points A, B and C we see highest daily volumes. As we can see price has been dancing around $741 price level and didn't go in either direction. It seems like big players are accumulating their short position. I suggest to put SELL STOP order at $738.5, with SL = $745 and close position piece by piece at $727 (+1.89%), at $720 (+2.83%), at $711 (+4.05%), at $704(+5%).
waiting for GOOG price spike then will hit resistance perfectlyBefore GOOG can be shorted, wait for a pretty big price spike, since this is what happened the last 2 times this RSI resistance line was met. Also look for a pretty steep angle and acceleration on the RSI, since this is also happened during the last 2 ideal shorts in late 2015 and Feb 2016. Luckily I was able to short the Feb 2016 drop by using this signal. I hope to get the next short. I will be shorting in the next several days. More risky is to short now, to be safer, wait for the price and RSI acceleration.
Fall of FANG: No WICK in sightExpected to continue until we see a lower wick:
FANG stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG) typically outperform the NASDAQ index.
Not this week.
Buying opportunity?
INVT Contract WinInventergy Global Inc. has formed a bowl bottom and is retesting a key level of resistance at 1.89-1.90. We have a bull flag on the right and the price is above the yellow 13 day exponential moving average (EMA) which is a very bullish sign. INVT released a press release that will serve as a catalyst for the long side. They get to clear their balance sheets and they dont owe Panasonic a guaranteed payment for their patents. Heres the link to that press release-
us.rd.yahoo.com
Long at break above 1.92, we can possibly see 2.50 in one day, this is a low float stock that has rallied before, I recommend using less capital as the price swings are above 10% in one day. If you have etrade, schwab, td ameritrade etc. - use their trading platform as tradingview.com fails to load small cap stock price action and charts.
NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS -- GOOG, CMG, GILD, XOM, LINKDAnd earnings season slogs on ... . Next week there are bunch of biggies, but not all of them are worthwhile options setup plays, primarily due to liquidity. GOOG's option liquidity has never been the greatest, and CMG and LNKD have always been horrid, so right off the bat I would pass on those for options plays.
GILD -- announces earnings on 2/2 (Tues) after market close. The options have fairly good liquidity, and its implied volatility rank is currently at 74.
XOM -- announces earnings on 2/2 (Tues) before market open. Good liquidity, but the implied vol rank is not where I'd like to see it; it's currently 54, a contraction no doubt due to the bit of strength in oil we've seen the past week ... .
Moreover, with the volatility still hanging in there in the broader market (VIX is still marginally over 20), I can afford to be picky and/or not play earnings at all, since my tendency is to slack off earnings plays when the VIX above 15 and go for plays in the broader index ETF's like SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA ... .
Nevertheless, I'll look at a setup at least in GILD and keep an eye on XOM to see if volatility ramps up to where I'd like to see it (70+ in percentile rank).
GOOG Alphabet looking to move higherNice head and shoulders.
Staying above 728, we target 783.
Tech stocks looking goog no.
$APPL its going to go down even more from my understanding it will constantly go down until it reaches a point where a new product comes out to advance their corp
SPY CHANNEL PLAYCompletely parabolic action today in the spy.
1) ran right into resistance on daily chart
2) fading volume of trend
3) RSI didn't register overbought when market made its last structure high
4) blow off top candle on 30 mn chart
5) lots of selling on level two
The rectangle below is the profit target (2 gaps down there that need to be filled)
FANG breakout FBFB is part of F.A.N.G. - FB AAPL NFLX GOOG. This is the nickname Wall Street gave for what they believe as the strongest stocks to come in 2016. These tech stocks with low exposure to the shit that was thrown on Wall Street will thrive in the new year and are hot buys. Heres the big move, dont hesitate. We broke out of a flag and are moving towards a breakout of an ascending triangle. Keep a tight stop just below the neckline and wait for price to confirm its move up (Move C-D).
Winter is here.Short squeeze boom is done, entire market is in red except for the 4 king ' FANG ' stock. 'Facebook', 'Amazon', 'Netflix', 'Google'.
Low risk entry into shorting the S&P here, down into the lows of August/October.
Regardless of what Yellen says on December, it does not matter. The FED do not have control of the market, people are just focusing on the past.
No one is buying the dip here.
Will be looking into buying PUTs/sell call spread for ' FANG ' into January - March 2016, with an expected fall of 20% from the current price.
Nasdaq bearish divergence at lower T/F:
Daily Pinbar - Bearish setupDaily Pinbar on $GOOG near the 161.8 Fib extension level.
Bearish Butterfly was violated, but a close below 720$ could create a False Break signals.
R/R for bearish Pinbar scenario marked on chart
Tomer, The MarketZone
Follow me on TradingView
Subscribe to my newsletters - goo.gl
Follow my blog - goo.gl
Subscribe to my Youtube channel - goo.gl
WITH VIX/VXX CREEPING UP, PASSING ON AMZN/GOOG PLAYSAs anybody who has read my posts probably knows, I am not a big fan of earnings plays. As I have pointed out, they either go great (instant gratification) or terribly (several cycles of rolls to mitigate loss that tie up buying power). Me, I'm a bread-and-butter guy with a penchant for mechanical index ETF and TLT trades that supply a fairly constant level of theta (and so theta decay). They're awfully boring, but I don't require exciting to be successful.
Consequently, I'm going to go with "boring" and passing on AMZN and GOOG earnings. Both of these juicy monsters could easily move the markets (depending on the outcome of earnings), and I simply want to keep my powder dry in the event of a volatility pop in the broader indices so that I can devote the buying power to putting on an index ETF play or two instead without risking the tie-up of buying power that an earnings play could entail.
That being said, if you're going to play these, look to put on an earnings play some time tomorrow during the NY session. Due to the price of the underlying, the only way I would probably play these is via iron condor, so look to put on the short strikes of the setups at or near the 1 SD line, with your long strikes 2-3 strikes out from the shorts and take them off at 50% max profit.
Naturally, both of these remain troublingly near their 52-week highs, so you might think about skewing the setups slightly bearish or making the setups "chicken wide" (wider than the 1 SD line) to avoid potential explosions/implosions that are far greater than the expected move. Good luck!
EARNINGS PLAYS I WILL BITE ON -- NFLX, GOOG & GS I have a love-hate relationship with earnings plays. When they work out, I'm happier than a clam; when they don't, I swear off them, use expletives to describe them, and say that they're a total *?! waste of time.
That being said, there are some I just can't pass up, usually because the premium is just too good. In the next couple of weeks, these will be NFLX, GOOG, and GS, so I am keeping a little bit of powder dry to do those.
Tips:
1. Look to put on a short strangle or iron condor prior to the close of the New York session before which the earnings announcement will occur. As a general rule, I play these nondirectionally, assuming no directional bias for the underlying and generally set up the sides at or around the 1 standard deviation line for both the call and put side.
2. Use expiries that are either the weekly options expiry immediately after the announcement or, if that provides too short a time frame in which to potentially manage the trade post-announcement, the Friday expiration thereafter. I generally prefer the weekly expiries for these setups, since they sometimes give you strikes in .50 increments, which allow you a little more precision with your strikes.
3. For both the short strangle and iron condor setups, I look to take the entire setup off at 50% max profit as volatility contracts post-announcement.
4. In the event of a test of a side of the setup, look to roll that tested side out to a later expiry for at least a credit equal to the cost of putting the trade on (fees/commissions) two to three days prior to expiry and close out the untested side or allow it to expire worthless.
Additionally, attempt to improve the strike prices for the rolled out side if possible.
Lastly, after rolling out the tested side, match it with an oppositional trade in the same expiration as the rolled out side (for example, if the put side is tested, roll it out to a later duration and set up a call side for that same expiry, ordinarily at or around the 1 standard deviation line for that expiry). My general rule is to roll out to the expiry that is of the shortest days until expiration that provides me with an opportunity to both roll for no additional cost in fees and commissions and that allows me to improve my strike price. If a particular expiry doesn't afford you that opportunity, try a later expiry for the roll.
I'll post examples of setups in these and any other "too good to pass up" high volatility, premium selling earnings plays as we get closer to the announcements .... .
Facebook moral eigenjesus bullishness at 200day EMABullish on the long term cycle - Price above 200day EMA. Just had a 20 day selloff. Good long entry if neutral and good hold if long. Same for Apple, Netflix, Google, and all the other big tech stocks.
www.scottaaronson.com
Consider the market trend to be Eigenjesus, or at least the concurrence of several of his high eigenpriests. It serves not only as an objective determination of absolute morality in the market, but more importantly absolute profit. As such, if the price is above the 200day EMA, bullishness is virtue. In such a case, one can only be long or neutral - for to be short would not only be unprofitable, but more importantly immoral.
GOOGL - Options aids Precise evaluation on GOOGLGOOGL opening within the range. Earning trades, who uses the concept of evaluating the price like i pointed out in earlier post. Should get nimble at the opening.
GOOG- The Trend Is Your Friend As Defined By The Green Lines.3-16 Is Google in the process of building
out a 5 waves up affair? Sure looks like it.
IF IF IF true then the current trend as defined
by the green uptrend channel is up. Notice
how this issue basically tagged trend channel
support and is pulling away from it? That's where
a stop can be placed, a break of the pink line.
Notice how within that overall uptrend channel
there is a downtrend (red) within it?
That is the definition of a trend within a trend.
Ever hear of the bunny hop dance?
CURRENTLY you are looking at one.
For educational and informational purposes only, trade are your own risk this is not a recommendation.
AAPL- You Need Only Ask One Question- Where IS Support.3-10 In keeping with my theme today of using support to guide
your entries?
Much like PANW this issue is sporting a similar set up brewing.
For those who like to buy stocks in uptrends
pulling back to support? You need only ask one question.
Where is it? Look no further than the green trend line.
Should this issue tag those zones that is where you want to
see the stock stabilize.
As always, trade at your own risk, these are not recommendations.
Strictly for educational and informational use only
