XAU/USD: Final NFP before Election Americans continue to rank the economy as their top issue, and the final Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before voting day, offers a crucial signal this coming Friday.
September saw a gain of 254,000 jobs, but forecasts point to a marked slowdown, with expectations hovering just above the 100,000 mark. The expected downturn stems from several factors, including back-to-back hurricanes disrupting the Southeast of the country.
For now, gold is trading below Friday’s close (but for how much longer?) as markets react to limited Israeli action against Iran. Tehran has indicated it won’t retaliate, easing geopolitical tension and potentially reducing demand for the haven asset.
Goldtrader
GOLD (XAUUSD) The Next Strong Resistance
What a bullish week for Gold,
the market updated the All-Time High multiple times this week
Analyzing the historic price action, here is the next potentially
strong resistance that I see.
It is based on a major rising trend line that the market started
to respect last year.
With a high probability, we will see at least a pullback from that.
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3 Technical Analysis Tools to Identify Resistance Levels on GOLD
How to trade Gold when it is constantly setting new all-time highs?
When Gold is trading beyond historical levels, technical analysis can help you to identify the next potentially strong resistance levels.
In this article, I will teach you the only 3 technical analysis tools you need to find the next key resistances and predict future correctional movements on Gold chart.
Tool 1 - Trend Line
The first technical analysis tool that will help you to identify a potentially strong resistance is a trend line based on previous highs.
Simply analyze the previous historic highs and try to find a trend line that was respected by the market at least 3 times in the past.
It means that such a trend line should be based at least on 3 historic highs.
Look at that rising trend line on Gold on a daily time frame. It is based on 3 historic highs, and it can be a potentially strong resistance.
Tool 2 - Psychological Levels
The second technical analysis tool is psychological levels.
These levels are based on round, whole numbers.
In our example, the closest psychological level is 2500 level. This level is based on round numbers, it is a multiple of 500 and 100.
It can compose a potentially strong resistance cluster.
Tool 3 - Fibonacci Levels
The third technical analysis tool is Fibonacci extension and confluence.
In order to identify a potentially strong resistance with Fibonacci extension, you should identify at least 3 last bullish impulses/waves.
Above is the example of 3 significant impulse legs on Gold chart on a daily.
Draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on these 3 impulse legs.
Here are important Extension levels to consider:
-1.272
-1.414
- 1.618
Above, you can see how I draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on all the impulse legs that we identified.
Your task is to identify the point where the extension levels of 3 impulses match in one point. Such a point will be called confluence zone.
This confluence zone will be the next potentially strong resistance.
These 3 technical tools helped us to identify the resistances beyond all historical levels easily.
Remember that there is no 100% guarantee that all the resistances that we spotted will be respected by the market.
For that reason, you should strictly analyze a price action and a reaction of the price to these levels before you open a short trade.
Alternatively, remember that these resistances can be applied as the targets for long trades.
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RSI Flags Gold Risks Before GDP, PCE Data? Gold is set to face two major US economic data points this week, following last week’s surprise 50-basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve: U.S. GDP figures on Thursday and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Friday
Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence argues the Fed’s larger-than-expected cut signals concerns over potential negative GDP revisions, casting doubt on the chances of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy.
Jerome Powell is also going to be speaking on Thursday at the 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference. But his remarks may take a backseat to the data.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above 70, signaling overbought conditions and suggesting caution for gold buyers. If the metal turns corrective, the price could test $2,613.
GOLD (XAUUSD): The Next Strong Resistance Ahead
A sudden violation of the all time high
triggered a strong bullish rally on Gold last week.
Here is the next potentially strong resistance that I see:
it is based on a major rising trend line and 2600 psychological level.
With a high probability, we will see a retracement from that area.
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Gold thoughts 13-Sept-2024GOOD MORNING Everyone! Please find my Gold market analysis for today below. As a price action trader, I encourage you to compare my charts with yours and use my insights to enhance your skills. These videos are designed for educational purposes only, not as trading signals. My goal is to help you grow and become a proficient trader.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Potential Scenarios Ahead of CPI
Ahead of US CPI data, Gold is stuck on a key daily resistance
based on the current All Time High.
Depending on the reaction of the price to the news, I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the price breaks and closes above the resistance of the range on a daily,
a bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 2550 level.
Bearish Scenario
The price has retraced from the underlined blue daily resistance
and is currently testing an intraday horizontal support.
If the market breaks and closes below that on a 4H, we can anticipate
a bearish continuation at least to 2508.
Patiently wait for the release of the news and then follow the market.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Support and Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold for next week.
Resistance 1: 2525 - 2531 area
Support 1: 2471 - 2484 area
Support 2: 2432 - 2447 area
Support 3: 2353 - 2381 area
The price is now stuck within a horizontal range based on Resistance 1 and Support 1.
Consolidation may continue, and we may see one more bullish movement to its upper boundary.
Alternatively, a breakout of one of the boundaries of the range will indicate the future direction of the market.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Decision Ahead
The release of the today's fundamentals is favorable for bulls in the Gold market.
The price is now testing the resistance cluster based on the current All Time High.
As always, our strategy is to wait for is bullish breakout.
A daily candle close above that will confirm a violation.
A bullish movement to 2550 will be expected then.
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XAU/USD: Citi Sees 50bp Rate Cut After NFP XAU/USD: Citi Sees 50bp Rate Cut After NFP
Citi anticipates the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will show 125,000 new jobs, leading to a 50-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Citi suggested in a note to Clients on Tuesday that if payrolls come in between 125,000 - 175,000, a 50-basis point rate cut is likely from the Fed.
The 4H chart for XAU/USD indicates that buyers may be stepping in on dips following the release of US JOLTs Job Openings data, which revealed fewer openings than expected in July. However, if Gold continues to weaken, the next likely support level is around $2,470-$2,460. A decisive break below this support level could alter the outlook for Gold, indicating that the commodity could be entering a more pronounced downtrend.
xauusdbeautiful drop on last friday 2524 was a great entry. seemd like gold want to dump more but anything possible as we do have ( bos ) 2515-2517 with ob looking at the chart clean predictions as gold bias is still bullish on weekly and monthly frame, smaller frame short.
let me know your thought. leave a comment below.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Support and Resistance Levels
Here is my latest structure analysis and important
support and resistance levels to focus on Gold.
Resistance 1: 2525 - 2531 area
Support 1: 2470 -2484 area
Support 2: 2432 - 2447 area
Support 3: 2353 - 2381 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Can Gold’s Uptrend Survive Friday’s PCE Data? Can Gold’s Uptrend Survive Friday’s PCE Data?
Gold prices slipped over 0.7% on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar rebounded, setting the stage for a pivotal close to the month with key inflation data on the horizon.
Markets are bracing for the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The PCE data, due on Friday, is expected to show a slight uptick, according to consensus estimates. If the U.S. economic data continues to show signs of weakness, it could bolster gold’s recent uptrend, fueling speculation that the Fed might consider a larger rate cut in September.
Despite Wednesday's dip, gold's upward trajectory possibly remains largely intact. The metal briefly dipped below $2,500 but quickly rebounded. If prices remain above this level, the next significant resistance lies at the all-time high of $2,531.
Gold's Uptrend Intact? ATH Remains Unbroken Gold extended its rally on Monday as mounting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September fueled demand for the safe-haven asset. Powell gave the green light on interest rate cuts during his speech at Jackson Hole last Friday.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed Powell, saying “It's hard to imagine anything could derail a September rate cut.”
Traders are closely eyeing next week’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could play a crucial role in determining the magnitude of the rate cut. An abysmal number could raise the likelihood of a 50bps cut. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, and thus increases its appeal.
Adding to bullion’s appeal, escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the intensifying conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, provided an additional boost to prices.
Despite the bullish momentum, gold has yet to reclaim its all-time high of $2,531. Technical indicators show some loss of upward momentum, though they remain well above neutral levels, suggesting the uptrend remains intact.
XAUUSD 4HR Analysis UpdateGolds Bull Run
Following my recent analysis post where I identified a key pivot zone leading into the next price impulse surge we are now running profit with momentum in our favour and the first phase of the analysis completed, going forwards I am looking for price to push a little further into the 2520's where I will await a suitable correction followed by various conformations affirming the continuation of golds ascent and another long opportunity.
As suggested todays powell speech and other red flag events helped surge the price off the floating ema support, dynamic support and resistance and key order block pivot S+R level, with further jackson symposium events on saturday and durable goods orders on monday we could see price continue the bullish favour heading into the opening of next week.
What is your thoughts on the future of price movement for this precious metal ? Let me know in the comments below.
XAUUSD 4HR Analysis + Trade Idea🚀💰 Gold's on a Roll ! 💰🚀
Last week, # XAUUSD hit an all-time high of $2529, only to take a dramatic dip back to the 2470-80 zone, finding strong support from the 50 EMA, dynamic trendline, and a key S+R order block. 📉🔄 But don't be fooled by this correction—gold is gearing up for its next big move! With factors pointing towards continued growth, we could see it break out of the $2500s in no time and aim for a whopping $3000 or even $5000! 📈✨
As we wait for tomorrow's statement from Jerome Powell, the market is buzzing with anticipation. Will gold continue its ascent? 🤔🔥 Keep your eyes on the charts! 📊👀
What's your next move? Let me know in the comments! ⬇️💬