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GOLDSILVER

Buy Gold and Sell StocksThe S&P to Gold Ratio has effectively traded sideways for the last few years. The ratio has now broken out to the downside. I would say that a 30-80% correction in the stock markets remains a threat despite Fed rescue efforts. I believe over the next several years that gold will outperform the s&p500. Contrary to popular belief, US stocks have not greatly outperformed Gold since 2015. Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital in an interview from March 4th talked about the corporate bond bubble beginning to burst. He said the Fed would cut rates 50 basis points at the next FOMC. (They very well might cut before that.) He said he believes gold will go to a new all-time high. He also talked about how financial stocks in Japan are down 85% ever since they adopted zero rates 20 years ago. For that reason I think there's little reason to think that the SPX or the NASDAQ is going to bounce into a mega rally. I think there's a lot of reason to think that lots of money is going to flow into gold and silver. Even in the worst case scenario - a 2008 style crash - gold will fall much less than stocks. Gold stocks may take a significant beating. For that reason it may be strategic to reduce mining exposure here and increase gold and silver exposure gradually. The speed of the DXY 's fall the last 2 weeks tells me that it has the potential to fall a lot further if Fed Monetary policy expands tremendously. If that is the case, I don't think gold has much downside in this scenario versus 2008. But I think US indices as well as gold stocks have higher risk here. If the Fed is slow in cutting rates and never steps in front of the market until it crashes, then expect a 2008 type of event that may not be gold-negative.
TVC:SPXShort
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
GOLDSILVER RATIO LONGI recently posted a chart of silver showing the bearish case, I also shared a bullish case for the dollar. In order to confirm the theory of those two I share the gold silver ratio. It is obviously in a bull trend. it has been stair stepping up major fib resistance from the low in 2011 and a smaller sequence from 2016. firmly above the 61.8 on both and well positioned in the upward trend lines -24th jan an obvious break out of the downward sloping wedge with conviction after testing the lower trend line and 50% fib from 2016 low.could even argue it is Head and shoulderish for this break -MacD and RSI still have room to move before being oversold/overextended. I see no reason why we cannot push to 100 or even to 110 before year end. this could be a combination of weak silver vs gold with gold not changing or gold moving up and silver not doing much. time will tell.
TVC:GOLDSILVERLong
by djmitchb
Value Hunting in the Silver Junior Mining SpaceWith silver likely to surpass its 2016 peak of $21 this year in 2020, some of the overlooked silver junior miners may catch a bid here. In order to get back to just its 2016 peak, Impact Silver would need to increase 197%. I think at minimum we will get a 100% move in Impact Silver in 2020, with a less likely upward potential of 275%. This a miner you want to be accumulating while cheap and owning during the next bull market in silver. Very little debt. Is a producing junior miner. Has survived multiple bear markets. Highly leveraged to the price of silver.
TSXV:IPTLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
Silver Target of $26 as Silver Plays "Catch Up" to GoldSilver had a nice surge earlier in the year as Gold surged to $1550. Overall, Silver has underperformed gold this year and remains undervalued relative to gold. As the metals finish and round out of this consolidation (retest of the breakout) look for gold to move towards $1711 and $1834. Silver and Platinum will both follow gold's move and will outperform. We could see $26/oz Silver and $1200/oz Platinum as soon as the 2020 spring. Silver needs to hold above key support, which lies around $15.65-$16.10. A break below this would not be good for the metals market. I will be accumulating shares of junior silver miners throughout this consolidation. Miners can be volatile. Know your risk tolerance, know what you're trying to achieve.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
7
Gold/ Silver Ratio - Rising Wedge - One More Leg to 100:1?As any avid precious metals investor would know, the Gold/ Silver Ratio is currently flashing a strong "Buy Silver" signal, with a ratio at press time of over 87:1, this is telling savvy investors that silver is undervalued relative to gold, or that gold is overvalued relative to silver. I believe that we could quite easily resolve the rising wedge pattern and have a period of mean reversion in the ratio, closer to the 60:1 mark, however at press time i slightly favor the bullish scenario, this is due to several reasons. 1) The presence of a clear 3 wave cycle as highlighted in the ratio, whilst this does not mean that this pattern must repeat, markets do tend to offer clear points of symmetry. 2) The price action for gold is far more bullish than silver, at the end of the day the price action on gold is much more conducive to a higher Gold/ Silver ratio. This is evident in several technical indicators, an example being the fact that Gold has reclaimed the 50% Fibonacci level, whereas silver has yet to reclaim the 23.6% retracement. 3) Currently the ratio has been respecting the lower trendline of the rising wedge pattern, and has been able to hold the 21 monthly ema that being said, 2 closes below this trendline would confirm a breakdown of the rising wedge pattern. Overall the Gold/ Silver ratio appears to be heading higher, likely to around the 95-100 range, unless the lower trendline of the rising wedge is decisively broken.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Profit_Link
5
Metals Correction is Almost Over. Onto Higher Targets for SilverGold broke out of a 6-year base this year, leading the other metals and commodities. 6-year base breakouts don't just end in 1-month surges. We have higher gold targets following this correction. $1711 and $1834 gold targets in the next 3-5 months. To us, this correction is an accumulation opportunity. When silver rallies to $25, silver miners will have a ton of ground to cover. Some are speculating on a more significant decline in gold prices. We could certainly correct to the low $1400s but it will be a short-lived correction not a new bear trend. Low 1400s is overly optimistic in my opinion. I don't think we'll see below 1434, but if we do, that's just another chance to buy more for cheaper.
NYSE:EXKLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
The Market is Severely Underestimating Inflation ExpectationsThe Repo market is proof that something is wrong with the system. It's an unsustainable system. Rates need to stay low and money needs to be printed in order to sustain this bubble - eventually this will create an intolerable amount of inflation. As the market realizes that QE isn't temporary, that it is permanent until inflation is out of control, then inflation expectations will shift as people move into hard assets. While everyone's still talking about overpriced SPX and NDX, I'm bargain hunting in the metals market Platinum is insanely cheap and looks poised for a surge. Platinum follows gold. Gold is broken out and headed towards $1700
TVC:PLATINUMLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
3
Time to Accumulate Gold and Silver Miners on Metals Pullback It is always important to keep one’s mind open and to consider all possibilities. At this point I am expecting a pullback correction in Gold, between $1416 and $1434. If this pullback comes, this will be an opportunity to accumulate undervalued junior miners who will play “catch-up” to the large cap miners. Additionally, with the gold-silver ratio finally breaking lower, silver looks poised to outperform on this next leg up. I am not actively shorting the metals, merely patiently waiting for this opportunity to accumulate even more shares in my list of miners. However, given the current state of affairs around the world, it is entirely possible this pullback never comes and that we move higher from here. I am hedged against that possibility by being presently invested and continuously adding to my investments in junior & small cap miners. In my opinion, if this scenario plays out where gold does not correct first, it will ultimately not be ideal for gold long-term and will likely result in a painful crash in the metals.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
The Shinny white metal will bring enormous profits to the table Gold and silver prices are steady to weaker in early U.S. trading Thursday. Bulls in both metals have suffered a minor setback late this week and now they need to step up and show some fresh strength to keep their price uptrends on the charts alive. The just-released third estimate of second-quarter U.S. GDP came in at up 2.0%, which was unchanged from the last estimate and in line with market expectations. The markets showed little reaction to the news. Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The up-and-down U.S.-China trade rhetoric is presently in “up” mode following positive comments on the matter from President Trump on Wednesday. Then on Thursday China’s Commerce Ministry said Chinese companies will buy “sizeable amounts” of U.S. soybeans and pork ahead of high-level trade discussions scheduled to take place in October. This has given the world marketplace a bit of a boost in risk appetite. However, the positive news on the world trade front is being blunted by the U.S. House of Representatives considering impeaching Trump over what the House says are illegal comments Trump made to a Ukrainian official. The Trump administration on Wednesday released the transcript of his comments to the official, which is being spun by both Republicans and Democrats to each’s favor. Whether Trump actually gets impeached seems unlikely at this time. However, the inquiry by the House is very likely to bog down the U.S. government to a standstill on new legislation, and is likely to hurt Trump’s foreign policy agenda, including trade negotiations with China. Upbeat economic data coming out of Germany is also assuaging European investors late this week. A consumer sentiment report Thursday showed a higher reading in September than in August, and the September number was also higher than expected. Recent economic data coming out of Germany had been dour. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $56.50 a barrel. The other key outside market today sees the U.S. dollar index trading slightly lower but not far below the high for the year. Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, revised corporate profits, the advance economic indicators report, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and pending home sales. December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded late this week. A four-month-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it in place. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $18.81 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $17.47. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $18.105 and then at $18.25. Next support is seen at $17.75 and then at $17.58
OANDA:XAGUSD
by GoldSilverAnalyst
Gold/ Silver Ratio - Flashing BUY Silver - 88.48 to 1The current Gold/ Silver ratio is settled at around 88.5 (at press time) this represents a historical outlier and a fantastic opportunity to leverage the movement of silver to great effect. As you can see the ratio is in a rising wedge, with it set to resolve in the not too distant future, these patterns tend to run quite long before resolving, usually into the climax of the pattern near the point of convergence. A historic mean of the ratio is around 45 to 1, that would mean a purchase of silver today would equate to purchasing 2x the amount of gold, side note, never measure precious metals (PM) in fiat, always measure in ounces. This pattern could continue until the point of convergence, this would suggest a ratio closer to 100 to 1, however, it is best to enter a PM position in tranches, as it limits the reliance on market timing. Nevertheless, this ratio currents represents a tremendous buying opportunity, one that you would be smart to take full advantage of.
TVC:GOLDSILVERLong
by Profit_Link
Silver - Breakout - About to Start Leading GoldThat's a long way down.... :) Sitting on the edge of the cliff. Comparing price action in gold and silver today. Silver looks ready to take the lead. Metals setting up for a big rally. Looking back gold rose over $400 in two months 2011. Banks are used to dumping paper gold shorts hitting sell stops, driving the price down. Lately it looks like those sell stops have been replaced with buy limits..... Price goes down a few dollars and then rebounds hard and fast. Banks have lost control.
TVC:GOLDSILVERShort
by cccpKGB1
Great News - Silver about to pause to let more on boardHi, thanks for viewing. I hope this makes sense to someone - not just me :) Great performance from silver recently showing; 1. That there is life in silver, 2. A nice impulsive move, 3. Out-performance of gold. However, all my lines and pretty colours suggest that silver may be about to consolidate before moving higher. It's just how I see the chart (I will be adding to my physical holdings on consolidation). I am a big believer of RSI divergence - if used along with other proven tools - it can be very helpful. RSI is just a trailing momentum indicator, its not magic, but it can point to potential changes of direction. When the RSI is making higher lows when price action is making lower lows, or making lower lows when price is still making higher highs I start looking for other signs of a reversal. Point Q and S are moderate signals, R is a weak one (a lower low vs an almost level RSI swing low), and T and U are, in my eyes at least, quite strong signals (much higher highs vs much lower lows on RSI). I think these moves are part of a much larger move up and I am anxious not to let silver get away from me (if I am wrong and the correction is a deeper one - I will continue to accumulate). While I expect some consolidation before a short term move up to $18+, then back to mid-$15 range. So I will be adding to my position significantly on any pull-back while the price stays below USD20 an ounce. No final upside target yet (I have watched videos recently that call for silver to hit $28, $80, $100+, and $700 - they al can't be right and I am just happy to wait and see) but I do expect; 1. gold to remain bullish in 2019 and to probably set new all-time highs in USD terms (gold has already recently set new all-time highs in over 70 different currencies), 2. Silver to peak before gold, 3. Silver to appreciate significantly vs gold - I am targeting a 2x relative appreciation over the next 12 - 36 months (Gold to silver ratio below 45. I am swing trading silver to gain more gold for long term holding. I find myself wanting to diversify more and more outside of fiat currencies recently), 4. The silver peak - when it comes - to be relatively short-lived. I have a general feeling that there are fewer and fewer places to park funds - especially for large funds - that will generate a respectable return. Sovereign bonds = negative real returns, term deposits same story, equities and looking shaky all around the world over the past 18 months, corporate debt is looking decidedly like a bubble about to burst (while also being low yield). It's hard to see a scenario right now where even a small portion of larger funds finds its way into gold and silver in search of returns. For me, it is hard to see the point of a "high interest" savings account returning less than 2% while gold & silver are so bullish, and cryptocurrency seems promising again this year (and my trading accuracy is much better too). Good luck everyone, protect those funds.
TVC:SILVERLong
by flyinkiwi10
Gold/Silver Ratio: Will Equalize Until Q1-Q2 2020 Then SpreadIn my many several Gold posts I have clearly described the near-term and long-term paths for Gold. However, in this write-up I will describe my thoughts on the Gold/Silver ratio. In the near-term, even though Silver has clearly lagged Gold (as depicted by the current 88:1 ratio), I believe this will equalize in the near-term and ultimately pick up pace through Q4 2019/early Q1 2020, until we reach about 68-71:1. Once we move into the mid-point of 2020, I see the overall global economy continuing to deteriorate and Gold gathering tremendous momentum especially as most of the world continues to push for negative rates and yields and focus on extreme monetary devaluation to push our overextended bull run further. Because a lot of Silver is used in some form of manufacturing and is not as inherently lucrative as Gold, I see Silver still increasing in value, but at a much more slower pace once we reach mid 2020. Therefore, while Silver will likely increase quicker than Gold (on a %/day level) once it reaches 17, in the long-run, I am significantly more bullish in Gold than Silver. However, Silver will continue to rise, but at an eventual slower pace. - zSplit
TVC:GOLDSILVER
by PaulDeep19131
GOLDSILVER med term swing strategy and possible resistanceHello, Thanks for viewing. This is a combined post (slash essay); 1. Trading the valuation oscillation between silver and gold for profit / accumulation, and 2. Possible signs of resistance on gold stretching its relative valuation on silver. Some of it will probably mirror well-established strategies, re-state some more obvious aspects, but hopefully, may be of value. 1. I am a relatively new entrant to the market, this is how I intend to weight my purchase of precious metals; Above gold-silver ratio (GSR) of 80 to buy exclusively silver / sell gold and to reverse the trade below a GSR of 45. Based on this chart there would have been a number of entry and exit points over the past 21 years. Each would have allowed for profit and or to accumulate additional precious metals. So right now, I am weighting my purchases very heavily in favour of silver (the only reason why I am still buying any gold is for peripheral reasons such as receiving favourable terms on gold at the moment, high liquidity, and ease of transport). If I had access to a physical market with greater liquidity, more favourable terms, and had zero concerns about possibly picking up and moving at short notice, I would be buying 100% silver. Some trades using this strategy may result in a financial loss e.g. if both gold and silver drop further in price (until at a GSR of below 45) - but silver is nearer its base-line and doesn't dip as far in % terms I may sell silver for a $ loss in order to purchase a larger quantity of gold vs the quantity available for the equivalent $ value as when I purchased my silver. I am relatively comfortable that silver is near / very near its bottom - in the majority of US mines it is already produced below the minimum sustaining cost (of course this does not mean that the price cannot decline further). Due to the local physical bullion market (buy price well above spot price and unfavourable buy-back terms) for silver being unattractive in my current location I am buying silver elsewhere using bullionstar.com in Singapore as it allows small purchases (1 gram minimum) very low premiums (7.56%) on certain items, and reasonable buy back terms (current spread 5%). If they prove to be a reliable partner, it will also solve any storage and security issues as they offer vault storage for low fees (the % fees are low BUT the min daily storage fee means that your charges are higher in % terms (than their quoted % rate) until you hold around SGD36,000 of siver or SGD77,000 of gold). When gold drops below a GSR 45 I will be able to trade back to dollars, or more likely convert into gold. What will I get for my troubles (minus storage fees and spreads) in 2 to 5 years? Around twice the amount of physical gold bullion that I could get for my money now. One more swing of the pendulum and I could expect around 4x the amount originally invested back in silver. Rinse and repeat. Yes, physical metals are not dividend or interest bearing - but they are profit generating while being an effective inflation / fiat devaluation hedge (as seen in Argentina, Turkey, and Venezuela recently). While deflation seems more likely than inflation recently as the world struggles to stoke inflation I certainly feel better in times of uncertainty with silver, gold, and bitcoin as part of a diversified portfolio. 2. The GSR currently seems on the high side. Historically, relative values tend not to remain above 90 for long periods. I expect 90 - 91 (wave 1 and wave (i) 1.618 extensions) to offer resistance against further rises based on wave extensions, and failing those, 93 is a feasible end-point (Wave (1) 1.618 extension). There is reasonably strong bearish divergence shown on the RSI and I would be looking for higher highs to display as lower highs on the RSI after one more touch of the short-term trend-line. Hopefully, I have presented a plausible EW count for the present move. Thanks for viewing
TVC:GOLDSILVERShort
by flyinkiwi10
1