Golds next signals to watch.We are now in the premium price of gold and at all new highs. With no history levels to go off or much structure in there's new zones this is what we have to look for next week. Remember due to world events, oil tentions, high interest rates and more. GOLD is long term bullish. Ideally your looking for best buy opportunities. Gold is approaching the top of its current uptrend channel. We looking currently at the 2246 area once trading begins again Sunday. Sells should be seen from here. Or looking at the 15 min time frame. After a clean break and retest of the level 2216.86. Seen below
The next best buy opportunity and strong poi, would be at our next order block and fair value gap. This area homes our pervious 2200 resistance that Should turn support now we have finally closed above this level. Along with a 4 hr tend line in this area to. A break and retest of this trend line would indicate Sales down to 2156 also a demand area.
Goldlongterm
Golds not done next weeks move.What an amazing week it has been! We executed a flawless trade setup, capturing over 700 pips, driving gold to impressive highs of 2236. Looking ahead to next week, I anticipate further upward momentum towards 2042, marking the top of its current channel. Expectations are for price to fluctuate between 2042 and 2030 before a decisive breakout. Currently, there's a 4-hour fair value gap, with 2200 possibly transitioning into a supportive level. We may witness a retracement to this zone before resuming the upward trend.
Must check before the US market opens. Otherwise you will regret
Gold rallied on the weekend's positive news. Gold prices continued to strengthen after opening in Asia. Attentive friends will find that Morgan Jack has explained it in advance yesterday. The highest impact reached a position near 2178, but it quickly fell back before stabilizing. It is still two dollars away from my expected 2180. Even so, buying is still a good profit. After the stochastic European market started, gold continued to fall under pressure. This shows that the bearish pressure on the market is still very huge. And the U.S. dollar barely moved much. It's just a one-sided rise in risk aversion.
After the impact of the weekend news, I think gold prices will continue to show a downward trend in search of lows. Therefore, in terms of trading, Morgan Jack believes that the US market is focused on selling gold at a higher price.
Additional operating instructions at the bottom.
Related references: OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD MCX:GOLD1!
The trend of the US dollar on Monday was still relatively strong and fluctuated around 104.3. Morgan Jack said this on Sunday, and you can see it in conjunction with the picture below: When the news surface no longer exists. The US dollar is in an uptrend on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. Regardless of whether the economic recovery is real or fake. The market already has this trend. Let’s talk about the news again. Fed officials have said they expect one rate cut this year and three earlier. Based on the combination of trends and news, the US dollar is expected to continue to be boosted and rise higher in the US market on 25/3.
Relevant references: TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY ICEUS:DXY INDEX:DXY
Gold Price Trading: Sell at 2171-2179
tp2157-2160
sl2186
Transactions are risky, so please be cautious!
Gold is in Periods of consolidation and range from 2146 to 2186.Gold Trade Idea
Gold is in periods of consolidation and ranges from 2146 to 2186. The mentioned area will be best for scalping in a short time frame.
But if you want to confirm the bullish and bearish momentum, then go head-to-head for a swing trade above or below the mentioned area of 2146-2186.
The trend on H4 and Daily time frame is still bullish but in short time frame like M30, M15 and H1 the momentum has change from bullish to bearish.
My target in Gold will be more high as you think that!
Gold market analysis
The price of gold is now $2157
From a gold technical perspective, the relative strength index (RSI) remains bullish and gold prices await confirmation of a bullish flag pattern.
Focus on Fed rate decision and Powell press conference
The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.
Gold market traders are closely watching the Fed's projected dot plot on the future path of interest rates, as well as comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the prospects for rate cuts.
It's the calm before the storm of the Fed's interest rate decision, and gold traders are turning to the sidelines to avoid making any new position bets. Markets are turning cautious as tensions rise ahead of the Fed's decision, eager for new hints on the timing and magnitude of the Fed's first interest rate cut this year.
The market's current expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates in June is only about 60%. Although the Fed's December dot plot predicted three rate cuts, it remains to be seen what the Fed's prospects for rate cuts will be. It is also worth noting that comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the press conference after the policy meeting will have new implications for the dollar and gold prices.
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Gold market analysis
omic data this week led investors to lower their expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, and pressure on precious metals continued to rise. Gold prices remained stable on Friday, recording their first decline in four weeks.
Spot gold closed down 0.30% at $2,155.70 per ounce. Gold prices fell more than 0.8% this week, marking their first weekly loss since mid-February, after hitting a record high of $2,194.99 last week.
The settlement price of COMEX April gold futures closed down 0.28% at $2,161.5 per ounce.
Data this week showed that U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in February, and producer prices also showed a certain degree of inflationary stickiness.
Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins, said, “Gold has already priced in a positive push from expectations of lower interest rates... If inflation starts to move higher again, that means policymakers will have to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. policy." "While gold doesn't particularly like a high interest rate environment, if the reason rates are staying so high is because of overheating inflation...that would naturally mean people will turn to gold again."
Higher-than-expected inflation continues to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, putting pressure on gold prices. The non-yielding precious metal is also used as a hedge against inflation.
Expectations of the timing of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve did not stop gold prices from rising. “The timing and pace of Fed rate cuts is a long-term driver for gold. Currently, the Fed needs to be more confident that inflation will return to 2% before it will consider cutting rates. We believe cuts will begin in July this year. The market is pricing in a move from 2024 Price cuts starting in the second half of the year. That is, the pullback in market expectations from March to June may limit price increases. The change of the U.S. ruling party will bring risks to future policies. Amid economic and geopolitical tensions, the stock market A record high. This may make investors more wary of downside risks than upside potential. Volatility is expected to increase as the U.S. election approaches. The risk-off scenario in equities will provide support for gold prices.”
Gold trend analysis, easily make money for you
Hello friends!
Entering the European market on Monday (March 11), spot gold consolidated at a high level after several consecutive days of sharp gains. It is currently waiting for the next trend near the record high. The market remains cautious before the key US CPI inflation report, etc. New clues for Fed rate cut.
After rising for eight consecutive days, spot gold broke through record highs one after another. It once touched near 2195 last Friday and is currently consolidating at a high of around $2180.
Gold prices hit a record high of $2,194.99 for a fourth straight day on Friday after data showed a cooling in the U.S. job market.
According to the current gold trend, the gold price is currently fluctuating at $2,180. Short selling is still not a wise approach at this stage. As far as the current trend is concerned, the gold price may correct. Pay attention to the gold price trend at any time to make the right choice.
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Gold trend analysis, easily make money for you
Gold trend analysis, easily make money for you
In early trading in the Asian market on Monday (March 11), spot gold fell back after rising to a high of $2,188.88 per ounce, approaching the all-time high of $2,195.07 set last week. It is now back around $2,180.
Gold prices surged to a record high on Friday following U.S. non-farm payrolls data. On the 60-minute chart, gold prices continue to trade within an ascending channel. Gold prices surged to a record high after data showed a rise in U.S. unemployment, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 275,000 in February, higher than the expected 200,000. However, the number of new non-farm payrolls in December last year was revised down from 333,000 to 290,000. people.
The U.S. non-farm unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% in February, a new high since January 2022, higher than market expectations of 3.7%, and the value before January was 3.7%.
The average hourly wage in the United States increased by 4.3% year-on-year in February, in line with expectations of 4.3%. The wage growth rate in January was revised down from 4.5% to 4.4%; the average hourly wage growth in February fell to 0.1% month-on-month, which was lower than expected. 0.2%, the previous value was revised down from 0.6% to 0.5%.
Spot gold closed up $19.38, or 0.9%, at $2,178.95 per ounce on Friday, with gold prices hitting an intraday high of $2,195.07 per ounce.
As I said before, the probability of gold rising is very high. In addition, combined with the impact of U.S. dollar interest rate cuts and rising unemployment rates, the negative gold news from the non-agricultural data was revised, and the U.S. dollar showed a weak downward trend. Therefore, the current gold price will continue to rise strongly;
Therefore, the short-term recommendation for gold is to go long on dips. It is still not recommended to go short and wait for the opportunity to go long at low levels.
Recommendation: Go long around $2178
TP 2190
SL 2168
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Gold price trend analysis, easily make money for you
On Friday (March 8), the price of gold hit a maximum of $2,193. Gold prices were on track for their biggest weekly gain in five months, boosted by hints from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that he would cut interest rates. Spot prices surged more than 3.5% this week, indicating strong investor expectations for a rate cut.
Gold prices are on the verge of their biggest weekly gain in five months and near record highs, buoyed by Powell's hints that a rate cut could come mid-year.
This week alone, gold spot prices soared by more than 3.5%, marking the largest weekly increase since the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalated in mid-October 2023, and is expected to rise for a third consecutive week.
Speculative trading has fueled the rise, but the underlying driver remains expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts, boosting gold's appeal. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is set for its biggest weekly drop this year, further increasing gold's appeal to investors holding other currencies.
The current resistance level is $2193.25 and the support level is determined at $2174.34
Combined with the current gold trend: it is predicted that gold prices will continue to rise;
Short-term recommendation: Go long around $2,175
TP 2190
SL 2165
Listen to my signal and advocate seeking victory in stability and not making rash advances.
Comments welcome!
2024 Inflation Deceleration Projection - Long GoldMy views of Inflation:
In essence, the inverse correlation between gold and real rates persists, I anticipate a transition from QT to QE by the Fed come May, and subsequent rate adjustments in 2024, propelling Gold towards my $2300-$2400 target. My projection is underpinned by my forecast in the deceleration of inflation, evidenced by the significant retracement in Core CPI and Core PCE post hikes witnessed '21/'22. I anticipate a cessation QT activities by the Fed, given the satisfactory contraction in inflationary pressures, albeit with a cautious eye on the potential persistence or escalation of inflationary trends in the forthcoming periods. The question begs, will inflation be aligning with the Fed's 2% target? Yes, I believe it is, and this bolsters the thesis favoring Golds appreciation.
Currently, Core CPI and Core PCE trends underscore a significant retreat from the '21/'22 peaks, courtesy of the Fed's QT regimen. As I (and markets) anticipate May cuts, I infer the Fed's QT was adequate in curbing inflation. The latency in real rate adjustments post-Fed hikes may even suggest the Fed may have even overdone QT. The forthcoming period is critical for assessing persistent versus transitory inflation dynamics, again, with an overarching trajectory into inflation's trend towards Powell's 2% target. I believe this leans towards this alignment, underpinned by mostly structural inflation rather than cyclical, structurally; attributed to post-Covid supply chain recalibrations. Although I believe cyclical inflation occurred, I believe the Fed's QT was more than enough to put the foot down. This is because the structural inflation mitigation underscored the inefficacy of cyclical monetary policies in addressing non-cyclical inflation. Though I cannot stress this enough, I still believe cyclical inflation occurred and it is a problem to present itself come '24.
It seems Powell is quite tipsy, as he does not want to mess things up, after seeing headline CPI data in early January '24 on the 11th come out, Powell thinks he may have jumped the gun on his dovish FOMC meetings prior to the data.
We're observing an inflation slowdown, edging towards the Fed's 2% target, with a keen eye on inflation-growth dynamics and the Fed's uncertain stance influencing inflation's trajectory. The onset of a rate-cutting cycle sees downside-skewed inflation, with the main ambiguity revolving around the extent of cuts. Post headline January '24 CPI led Powell to believe he jumped the gun to his prior dovish FOMC meeting in December '23, amid core CPI and PCE indicating steady deceleration, validating Fed's inflation target alignment. Energy's influence on headline figures contrasts with core deceleration, hinting at possible hawkish Fed shifts if core inflation is affected. The divergence between rate cuts, growth, and energy prices underscores a sort of balance, with the consensus leaning away from further hikes, closely monitoring labor and inflation trends into '24. Despite recession forecasts, '22/'23's robust labor market debunked such predictions, underscoring overlooked nominal income growth's support.
Forecasting a recession in '22/'23 hinged on real income growth, bolstered by employment, easing structural inflation, and lower energy prices. Despite housing and consumer spending recovery, some argued ISM's YoY contraction, however the ISM is not meant to be seen as a YoY indicator. It's a diffusion index that reflects the breadth/growth of contraction compared to the previous month. The ISM is based on a survey on whether conditions for manufacturing business are improving or deteriorating compared to the previous month, clearly measuring that on a YoY basis makes no sense as this is a snapshot of the manufacturing sector’s current momentum, rather than a comparison to the same month in the previous year, which would be a YoY analysis. Thus, this didn't signal a recession. My early expectations of early Fed cuts are rooted in structural inflation resolution from supply chain improvements.
I believe to discern the Fed's rate cut strategy, we need to understand the spread between the Fed funds rate and core inflation metrics (CPI and PCE). The disparity will signify the Fed's probable target spread, with the Fed funds rate presently surpassing core inflation. A resilient economic growth, as indicated by the Bloomberg Economic Growth Surprise Index, might lead the Fed to maintain a wider spread, hinting at 3-4 rate cuts. Conversely, a growth deceleration could validate a more aggressive 5-6 cuts. The sentiment indices from the Fed's communications suggest a preference for a narrower spread. I think Powell doesn't want to jump the gun on cuts, as I believe it would be humiliating for him to cut in May and hike in March due to a reacceleration in core inflation figures.
With inflation trending towards the Fed's 2% goal, my analysis suggests potential rate cuts in 2024, alongside an Gold reaching my target $2300-$2400.
The content provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. It is not intended for qualified investors only. Users should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and will not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. Use this information at your own risk.
Disclaimer: The content provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. It is not intended for qualified investors only. Users should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and will not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. Use this information at your own risk.
Will gold continue to rise this weekThe market always changes, the last two weeks gold down or obvious big short, Friday straight up, Friday 2042 broke the daily pressure, the peak around 2062, the weekly line cross star, the shadow line is very long, the long-term forecast will continue to attack this week, the extreme pressure this week is 2064 and 2088, if gold stands on these two prices This week will form a big unilateral, but I think it is impossible, bulls and bears will fight again, the idea is still the shock to deal with Friday's surge mainly because the United States and Britain attacked Yemen, leading to the Middle East situation again erupted larger, bull news can continue to deserve our attention.
At present, the Asian bulls have been directly high, focusing on the opportunity of 2062 air pressure, the next 2041 is already a new small support, this position is a big pressure before, multi idling into a new support, if the short later again below this position, we need to redefine the trend
Support 2041,2030, pressure 2062, disk strong and weak water line 2048
Will Gold rally next week?Gold fell a whole week last week from Monday all the way to the daily line around 2030 to stop falling Friday formed a rapid rebound Friday's rebound is mainly because of the impact of non-agricultural data after the long and short game! Last week we captured 3 times the market profit! Starting Monday, we sell in 2075, Tuesday in 2064, Wednesday in 2049, Thursday in 2048, Friday in 2040, and then in 2030, we reverse many orders and sell again! Let us firmly grasp the triple profit!
Last week, several times tested the pressure position of gold 2050, the main theme of the gold market is currently on the bearish side, and now the price of gold into 2043 will it form a repair counterattack next week or continue to fall?
If you want to know, you can contact me on my home page with my contact information!
In short, next week will be a very profitable week! The market will give a very big market next week! At least 3x profit margin! If you want to grab next week's profits instead of burning your own account I suggest you contact me directly!
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GOLD M45, Key level, see why ... 📈Hello Traders!
I'm coming up with updates related to GOLD M45.
As you can see, GOld took the liquidity level mentioned in the previous post, I consider it an important level to execute a LONG TRADE.
Also, on the chart, we can recognize the level of accumulation , for now, we are in the manipulation stage, and I expect a distribution until the 2060 level.
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XAU/USD: Signal for Account Doubling
Due to holiday influences, market volatility has been exceptionally low today, with short-term adjustments observed. However, I believe that gold will continue its upward trend, presenting opportunities for long positions during declines. A prudent approach to the market is advised, avoiding reliance on chance outcomes.
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XAU/USD Long term Buys from 1945.000 up towards (2010.000)This is a long term move I am anticipating for the gold market, as the overall market is bullish on the higher time frame, this will be a pro trend trade that we can take up towards 2010 or even higher to make new ATH's (ALL TIME HIGHS.) To add, the internal structure is also very bullish now and we can be expecting an impulse move to the upside from these POIs marked out.
Currently, I want to see a pull back of some sort back to the demand zones around 1945 where price is at a much cheaper rate. This will give us an ideal entry model if we see a Wyckoff accumulation play out in this area as well as a clean CHOCH to the upside. Not only that but this zone has also caused a CHOCH already and it lays between the 0.78 fib range.
Confluences for Long term Gold Buys are as follows:
- XAUUSD is overall bullish on the HTF structure and LTF structure.
- Price has left a clean demand below that has caused a CHOCH to the upside and BOS.
- Lots of liquidity to the upside int the form of a trend line, asian highs and FVGs
- Price requires a pullback or a correction in order for price to continue going upwards.
- The zone also is inside the 0.78 fibonacci range and the zone has caused an impulse move.
- However, we are pending lower time frame confirmation as price is not near our POI as of yet.
- To add to this the Sentiment analysis also shows the gold market being VERY BULLISH.
P.S. I will be waiting for these zones for a buy unless price makes new demand zones then we will re evaluate our next move. Or we can wait for price to enter a new supply for us to sell back down towards these areas to then ultimately buy back up!
XAUUSD Analysis - Nov 16
Gold is currently trading within the range of 1955-1975, exhibiting overall volatile upward movement. Effective support is formed near 1955, and today's focus is on identifying two suitable entry positions.
Gold Support: 1955-1950-1945
Gold Resistance: 1975-1980
Initiate trades when gold reaches the specified resistance and support levels. I can tailor a trading plan that best suits you, ensuring stable returns.
XAUUSD:14/11 Today’s Trading StrategyIn the Asian market on Tuesday, the U.S. dollar index fell back to 105.6, gold prices remained at a weak level of 1945, and many traders were paying attention to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) released in the evening. A previous poll by the New York Federal Reserve Bank showed that one-year inflation expectations are declining, while prices in October are expected to fall to 3.3% from 3.7% in the same period last year. Core CPI is expected to be 4.1%, unchanged from the previous reading.
Gold prices showed a bottom-out trend on Monday. The lowest point hit 1931.5 and then rebounded quickly. The highest point reached 1949, but it adjusted after encountering resistance. The last closing price was 1945.97. On the daily chart, gold closed with a Zhongyang line, which indicates that gold has begun to stabilize after continuous declines. Judging from the overall trend, gold is still in a downward channel, with the upper long-short watershed at 1953. If this mark is exceeded, the platform resistance level of 1965 will be tested. Below, gold has formed a long-short reversal signal at the 1941 level. Touching this level for the first time today will become a support level. If there is an unexpected break below this level, the previous low of 1931 will need to be watched.
Based on the above analysis: Gold is expected to bottom out and form a bull reversal. The price of gold is expected to fall first and then rise today.
BUY:1935-1938
SL:1931
TP1:1942
TP2:1948
SELL:1957-1959
SL:1965
TP1:1953
TP2:1948
XAUUSD Longs from 1920 up towards 1960 (possibly higher)Gold is now looking very promising for another impulsive move to the upside which I'm expecting to happen around the price of 1920-1930. As price is approaching I'm waiting for a wyckoff accumulation to play out and a clean CHOCH so we can enter our buys back up.
As there is some asian lows around that region between the 5hr and the 4 demand, I would wait for that to get taken in the form of a spring to generate a better quality setup without there being potential reversal magnets against our trades. We will be targeting the 1960 POI as there is a good supply there that could potentially get respected however, as there is lots of liquidity lying above I would be expecting all of it taken as I am overall BULLISH on gold.
Confluences for XAUUSD Longs are as follows:
- Price approaching a strong level of demand (5hr & 4hr) that has caused BOS to the upside.
- The trend of the market is overall bullish and expect gold to take ATH's eventually.
- Price has swept lots of trend-line liquidity on the way down and has filled in imbalances that was left from the previous impulsive move to the upside.
- Lots of liquidity lying above in the form of trend line liquidity and lots of untouched Asia highs.
- Bearish momentum is now getting exhausted as we see price slow down ready for a potential reversal in the market back up.
P.S. Im looking forward for this move to play out post CPI as I don't personally trade news events due to its extreme volatility. However, as this will be a trade with the overall trend we can definitely be expecting another major rally that will break structure the upside.
High Probability Gold Upcoming MoveGold has been back to the pivot point near lowest highs. 1945 is weekly and daily support level. Lets go for long positions till immediate resistance @1970. Be informed that there is already hawkish tone from Powell for DXY. so War sentiments as well as Technical outlook are complicated so market might be flat till closing. There is no bigger move expected till closing.
XAUUSD:8/11 Today’s Trading StrategyLooking at the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and gold has encountered resistance and fallen since last Friday's high of 2004. There is only a single positive line on the K line, which is structurally very weak. Yesterday, the US market closed with a positive line in the 4-hour period. Seen as a correction, a single positive cannot change the trend. In addition, the continuous decline has made the indicator seriously oversold. The stochastic strength indicator RSI has reached the bottom with signs of turning. The short-term rebound correction is also reasonable. The rebound is for fell.
In the short term, gold is currently in a downward trend and has turned from a very weak form to a concussive trend. The price has temporarily formed a double bottom support rebound near 1953. It is expected that there will be a second bottom move after the rebound correction. If the second bottom does not reach a new low, this wave of decline will come to an end. At that time, go long on dips. If it breaks below 1953, it will start a new round of decline. Today, we will continue to pay attention to the support situation in this area. If gold continues to weakly break below the support, then the price below Looking further towards the vicinity of 1940. The top short-term focus is on the resistance near 1975/1978. This is near the low point of the previous high point shock. It is currently running downwards and pay attention to the top-bottom transition. If it continues to strengthen, focus on the vicinity of 1986, which is the golden section of 0.618 where gold fell by 1956 since 2004. But if gold rebounds too strongly, then you need to be careful that the market may fluctuate at a high level. In terms of gold operation ideas, it is recommended to focus on short selling on rebounds.
BUY:1955-1957
SL:1950
TP1:1965
TP2:1970
SELL:1970-1973
SL:1978
TP1:1965
TP2:1960