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GME

$GME - That time of the year againIt's a bit early to celebrate, but i see decent signs of another GME run happening soon, at least within February. I i said, it's a bit early and the data needs several more days of prints to verify, if that's the case, i'd be setting this post to "Trade Cancelled" and i'd make a new one in it's place when its time. Now that warnings have been given, it looks like we might be having a strange and weirdly early run on GME, possibly covering before earnings, repositioning and dumping it on earnings. If the above is true, Vix may be on its way to 19 by next week, SPY may be wanting to dump. The data imgur.com There is a spike in progress. If it doesnt fizzle out, we're going to see some price action soon. The timeframe is still unclear. Initially i think we could see something next week but i need more data to verify. It is possible that this may be a buildup for a post-opex run, but it's still too early to say. This run doesn't quite fill all my criteria for a run, but i'm posting it just in case. I also have secondary data indicating that this is already a dud/no run, but here we are anyway. So we may see something: -Next Week -Around the 22'nd -Or not at all Updates daily. If i think nothing's happening i'll be setting the post to "Trade Cancelled". I wont be reading or replying to comments.
NYSE:GMELong
by leenixusu
25
AMC can price rise from the all-time low ? LONGOn this 15 minute chart I see support for upside on AMC now at its all time lows. My target is recent tweezer tops at 4.27 with a stop loss set at 3.93. Any price rise at all will likely start short seller's buying to cover and close to be added to new long buyers supporting a move higher. The dual TF RSI indicator shows a bottom at the all time low and bullish divergence compared with the price action which is sideways for the moment. The Mass Index indicator with a rise then fall over the threshold and trigger levels has signaled a reversal. I will take a long trade of both long shares and a call option. An alternative to hedge is long shares and put options at a ratio of 100:1 with the puts as cheap " insurance". If a short squeeze ( ? moonshot) ensues, the put option will stop out or get crushed to a complete loss of no consequence in the greater overall trade. DISCLAIMER Any long trade from an all-time bottom is extremely risky- only trade cash that you can afford to burn and not feel bad about it.
NYSE:AMCLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Can AMC continue after a good trading day ? LONGAMC on a 30-minute chart is putting in a double bottom. In mid-December, a symmetrical head and shoulders is formed. The right shoulder being higher than the left makes for a diagonal neckline which yields a target in the area of 5 confluent with the level of a high pivot on January 10th. A standard Fibonacci retracement of the Janaury trend down would put a target at about 4.55. The AI predictive tool looking back for similar patterns has printed a buy signal. On this instrument at this time frame, the indicator has a 98% accuracy for win rate. The ADX indicator shows a line cross and a "green" bull trend beginning. Overall, I find AMC to be set for a long trade targeting 4.5 and 4.95 for one-third each with the remaining to run in case a short squeeze gets underway.
NYSE:AMCLong
by AwesomeAvani
GME looks to be getting ready for a sling-shot bull-trap!With the recent bankruptcy of Evergrande, forcing the liquidation of its many short positions, rumored to include equities like GME, AMC, etc., many traders are expecting another brief 'short squeeze' as a result. The charts seem to indicate that GME could make a nice move from current levels ($14.75), possibly even dropping to the bottom of the wedge to the $13.90ish level before bouncing to the upper trend line (white dashed line) to approximately the $18.42 level in the next 15 to 20 days (mid-February), followed by what I believe will be a sharp reversal from that level to a downward move over the 2 to 3 weeks following, back down to the $11.83 level. If GME falls below the $11.83 level (lower white dashed line) on the charts, we could easily see the price drop below the $10 level. If you study the chart, GME is pretty consistent about making a move, falling back, then retesting at or near the top of the previous high before pulling back, which in some cases gives you a chance to break even on a bad trade or even double-tap a successful trade. Either way, GME can blow the doors off any size account if not traded with due diligence. No potential gain is worth blowing out your account. Great traders trade with discipline, and disciplined traders stand the test of time because they never put their ability to trade at risk. I personally never put more than 25% of my account at risk on a single trade. Don't take these charts as gospel, but don't ignore them either! There are two types of traders in my books: followers/copy-traders and leaders/trail-blazers. Which one are you? Good luck, and always use a stop or a buy-limit hedge!
NYSE:GME
by MetaShackle
GME TRENDS AND PRICE TARGETS, WE LOVE MEMESIf you've been following GME with me, you bought at 12.5 and below last month. Sell target 1 was 16.9, we came close but lost a tiny bit on the first topside pump. We bought the dip around 14.02 and below, and we were looking for 18, 21, and 25 with small retracements in between. I'm not sure, but per indicators, it seems we might see the higher targets of 21 and 25 before we see the retracement targets of 10 and 8. Faster and steeper we go up, the faster and steeper we drop, so remember, the time to be flinging money in without much worry was under 12.5. Now, you'll want to be trimming profits and compounding. How much should you sell and when? Only you can make that decision. However, feel free to use some my price targets if you're struggling to set your own. If you're new to trading or my charts. We usually buy and sell on the major trends, and use the breakouts as a chance to compound profits, or simply wait for the right trade to present itself, whether bull or bear. Just because we are selling at these levels in a longer term trade doesn't mean there aren't chances to jump into shorter term trades. However, USE caution at these levels. If you're bearish on this stock, you want to see it wedge down, and if bullish you want the breakout to the topside. I tried to make this chart as simple as possible. Squeeze targets included, but be REAL, it's unlikely, and it will be fast up and fast down should it occur. However, bears need to be real as well and realize that some of those topside numbers are very possible. Options get a little wild around the 26 and 32 dollar marks I believe. You only wanna play with weekly options if you know how they move in relation to the price or you'll get killed from theta. Good luck!
NYSE:GME
by nicktussing77
6
GameStop's Crypto Rollercoaster: The Rise and Fall GameStop ( NYSE:GME ), the once-famed video game retailer that captured the financial world's attention during the WallStreet Bets saga, has decided to shut down its NFT marketplace. After a year and a half of foraying into the crypto space, GameStop ( NYSE:GME ) cites persistent regulatory uncertainties as the primary reason for discontinuing its NFT platform effective February 2, 2024. The Rise to Crypto Prominence: GameStop ( NYSE:GME ) first hinted at its venture into the NFT space in 2021, a strategic move that raised eyebrows in the gaming and financial communities alike. By January 2022, the company had assembled a dedicated team of 20 individuals to manage its gaming NFT marketplace and disclosed a partnership with Immutable, signaling its intention to utilize Immutable X's blockchain. A $100 million fund, denominated in Immutable's IMX token, further solidified GameStop's commitment to the crypto realm. However, the excitement was short-lived, as the retailer promptly liquidated a significant portion of the acquired IMX tokens, offloading $47 million onto the market. This move raised questions about GameStop's long-term strategy in the volatile crypto landscape. Challenges and Layoffs: By July 2022, GameStop faced internal challenges, leading to undisclosed employee layoffs. Despite these setbacks, the company went ahead with the public launch of its NFT marketplace. However, the inclusion of Immutable X gaming NFTs didn't materialize until several months later, coinciding with the ousting of GameStop's CEO, who had overseen the company's initial foray into the crypto space. The Unraveling of Crypto Ambitions: Fast forward to the present, GameStop ( NYSE:GME ) has decided to bid farewell to its NFT platform, leaving traders and enthusiasts with questions about the company's abrupt exit from the crypto space. Notably, the discontinuation of its NFT wallet was declared approximately four months ago, raising eyebrows about the company's decision to stagger its departure rather than shutting down both products simultaneously. Regulatory Scrutiny and Uncertainties: GameStop ( NYSE:GME ) points to ongoing regulatory uncertainties in the crypto space as the primary driver behind its decision to cease NFT marketplace operations. The move comes amid a broader global conversation about the regulatory framework surrounding cryptocurrencies and NFTs. The absence of clear guidelines has left companies like GameStop grappling with the risks and challenges associated with navigating this rapidly evolving landscape. Conclusion: GameStop's rollercoaster journey into the crypto space, marked by ambitious plans, strategic partnerships, and subsequent exits, reflects the broader challenges faced by traditional companies venturing into the volatile world of digital assets.
NYSE:GMEShort
by DEXWireNews
$GME - Finally, but...I have 7 variations of these showing the same spike for GME and many other names in the market whilst only 1 other chart (the one i typically use to detect runs) shows that this is going back to 11-12. imgur.com Based on the above screenshot being so nicely parabolic looking, i think we're looking at a price in the early or mid $20's for now. Will keep you updated if it looks like it's going higher. GME looks good to buy as there's likely even more of a pump after this not only for GME but for many other names showing similar and even larger spikes (e.g ABSI and many others imgur.com) Looks like i was a week early on trying to catch the initial spike of the run. I had MIL:1K of calls expiring on the 24'th of Nov knowing that it could've easily skipped that week and gone for the next one as it has done many times before and ther we go... it did just that. Anyway, GME's IV is extremely high ever since my last post, so i'm not touching it neither in terms of options nor in terms of shares. I've chosen to get burnt on SPY puts instead with a decent amount of theta this time. I have positions in SPY, ABSI and a bunch of other stocks that i won't mention as ya'll will crowd up in them and kill em. Decided i'll give you this one since i'm out of this one due to high IV, so i'm throwing this one to the dogs. RC gave a beautiful signal on his tweet signifying there would be a run so i guess the data is confirmation (Or the opposite) Be careful of the upcoming COST earnings after SPY's dividends next week, if the retailer pumps, the sector stocks e.g GME and others will pump to and will vice versa. COST could be the reason we pump or we might pump before COST earnings and then dump on it's earnings.
NYSE:GMELong
by leenixusu
3
$SOl updated price targets - Huge potential off physical productExplore the "Sol Play" strategy tailored for the resistance zone between 104.45 and 114.12, with set targets at 130.89 (Target 1) and 198.79 (Target 2). Utilize the current diagonal channel, ranging from -7.76 to 23.27 at the bottom and 147.36 to 180.06 at the top, for a straightforward approach to market movements. Utilize charts for target points. Resistance zone 1: $104.45 - $114.12 Target 1: $130.89 Target 2: 198.79 The key driver behind this play is the introduction of the Solana Phone. As the first phone with a decentralized app store, it marks a significant step in the mobile era of Web3. Offering self-custody on the phone via Seed Vault and access to Web3 native dApps, the Solana Phone introduces a real-world use case product into the crypto market. This asset analysis focuses on the practical implications of the Solana Phone, recognizing its potential to bring a tangible, real-world utility to the crypto environment. The inclusion of a decentralized app store makes it a noteworthy development with implications for the broader crypto market.
Long
by Helios_Capital_Investment
Waiting to see how this head and shoulder plays outShort Squeeze is unlikely to happen again NYSE:GME GameStop's Split Will Be a Stock Dividend Dividend stock split isn't likely to affect short sellers. While shorts would be required to pay a cash dividend if GameStop issued one, a stock dividend works pretty much the same for all investors regardless of whether you're short or long. The effect is to increase the share count and lower the share price using the split ratio and there are no extra shares to pay back
NYSE:GME
by RealizeTrades
3
GME GameStop Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold GME before the previous earnings: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GME GameStop prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 15usd strike price at the money Calls with an expiration date of 2024-1-19, for a premium of approximately $2.63. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:GMELong
by TopgOptions
GameStop's Stock Experienced a Sharp IncreaseKey Takeaway 1. Investors eagerly anticipate GameStop's Fiscal Q3 2024 earnings report scheduled for December 6th, following the recent stock movement. 2. Despite challenges, there's speculation that GameStop could report a profitable quarter, presenting a potential catalyst for its shares and contributing to a noteworthy turnaround. The Reversal Is In GameStop's (GME) - recent stock performance has shown signs of a turnaround. After a decline of more than 55% since its peak in mid-June, GameStop shares surged 13% in the trading session on November 28, with an additional 12% increase in after-hours trading. While there isn't a specific catalyst related to business fundamentals for this short-term reversal, the most plausible reason is the stock's extended stay in oversold territory since September. The 14-day Money Flow Index (MFI) has been trading below 20 for the first time since July 2019, signaling an overselling condition. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been hovering very close to oversold territory since mid-October. GameStop's Earnings Just Around The Corner The recent reversal in GameStop's stock occurred just ahead of the company's Fiscal Q3 2024 earnings report scheduled for December 6. In the preceding three quarters, GameStop reported earnings per share (EPS) of 0.16 cents in January (primarily attributed to a robust holiday season), -0.17 cents in April, and -0.01 cents in July. It's important to note that the October quarter, which precedes the holiday season, poses challenges for the video game retailer chain. The third quarter is commonly a seasonally slow period for retail companies, lacking significant holidays. Furthermore, the release of major gaming consoles and blockbuster video game titles typically occurs in Q4. Consequently, consumer spending patterns may decline compared to other quarters, especially on non-essential items like gaming products. Price Momentum GME is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average. What does this mean? Investors have been pushing the share price lower, and the stock still appears to have downward momentum. This is a neutral sign for the stock's future value.
NYSE:GMELong
by DEXWireNews
A Price, A Retard, And An Impossible Number: The Ballad Of $1700Okay.. We all know who/what I am here, and if you don’t then you’re new and I welcome you. Let's imagine we're a financial entity, with: market making privileges in equity, and a large market share of order processing, meaning we could, potentially, internalize demand as liabilities (IOUs/FTDs) or let them pass through to the market. with access to all standard products, meaning we're only limited by having to find a counterpart to any financial instrument we might want to use - even bespoke instruments. a big balance sheet. a large contact network, including political, enforcement and media. a widespread reputation of "knowing what we're doing" in a field in which very few people know what they're doing. For some reason or another, we decide to short a stock - we're fairly confident that it'll go bankrupt. Why we are so confident is irrelevant - we just are. However, we're not really allowed - or it's suspicious, or just want to avoid the connection - to have a position in the securities we market-make, therefore we use our network of institutions to have a series of hedge funds - not us, but bound to us through shared ownership or debt or aligned incentives or whatever - hold the short positions for us. It's also possible that these hedge funds are taking this short position of their own volition, and we have nothing to do with it yet. The point is, this specific stock has a growing short interest. It's easy to find the shares to borrow. All broker-held shares are kept within the DTCC books, that means they're all kept in a neat pile. We can borrow from the pile/warehouse and throw a few pennies back as fees. We then sell these stocks to retail, so the stocks end up right back on the borrowable pile - they never "leave" the brokerage, and the brokerage stores them in the same pile. We're adding a liability (the short stock) and an asset (the cash) on our sheet. They're fungible, and it's all happening in aggregate and behind closed doors, so nobody has actual proof - hell, nobody has reason to suspect in the first place, since the stock in question is a "bad stock," according to the news, and so the collective meme says it should go down. Since each sold stock goes back to the pile, there's no shortage to the borrowable supply, and therefore no reason for the interest fee to go up. We can keep pointing at a share, using that share to create a liability, receive cash, and then point at the same share again. Also, if we occasionally/often fail to deliver/borrow, who's gonna notice, let alone stop us, right? In essence: Customer bids/demands a share. The bid is routed to us by the broker. We grab a share from the borrowable pile - add this to liabilities. We add this same share to the customer's assets. We also take the customer's cash from their assets, and drop it in our assets. The customer's share is stored in the borrowable pile, thanks to the broker, so the pile's size hasn't changed. Result: Demand is satisfied. The borrow pile is unchanged. Our liabilities grow. Supply is not reduced. We took the customer's cash. We just need to be careful about the reporting methodology - make sure everything's tidy when the picture's taken, and as long as the pile is large enough relative to the daily volume, it's foolproof. Alright fantastic, each sale is free money, and the sold stock goes right back for-sale. Unnoticed, we're actually recycling the supply. The demand, on the other side, isn't - buyers need actual cash to buy, and that shit runs out. With endless supply and limited demand, the price goes down. Price going down should increase demand, but as long as the price is expected to continue going down, then that's neutered - people don't buy because the price is low, but because they expect it to rise. Besides, more demand means more sales, and more profit, yes? Eventually, we're confident the company will go bankrupt, and then we'll just be left with two piles: one of cash, and one of worthless liabilities, valued at 0. Pure profit, no need to even pay taxes, since we didn't really close our positions. Then, two things happen. First, some schmuck begins actually looking at the numbers - "bad stock" meme isn't enough for him, and he realizes that the stock is too cheap, related to the fundamentals. He begins buying and spreading the word, which challenges our preferred meme. Suddenly, there's a narrative of counter-culture/resistance around buying the stock, it's seen as giving us the middle finger, and the kids think that's cool. Whatever, let's underestimate them. The second thing to happen, is that another guy - this one actually has three commas, so he's a bit more difficult to deal with - buys a bunch of the stock, and declares his intent to become an activist investor. He maneuvers intelligently, and before long, he's chairman of the board. While we're good at making memes for boomers, this dude is good at making internet-native memes, and he, without ever actually interacting directly with the community, manages to cement himself as a trustworthy, competent figure, opposed to wall street and internet savvy. He outlines a turnaround plan which actually - independently of everything else - makes sense, and he brings the drive and level of compromise a founder figure can provide, as opposed to distant institutional owners. Now, a short position is a leveraged position, meaning we can be margin called if our unrealized losses exceed our collateral. Therefore, as the stock price stops going down, and begins going up, we have to begin to actually monitor the stock price and the short position size, versus the rest of our assets - and not all assets, but those considered high quality liquid assets, and therefore valid collateral. The way this works is, different asset types get assigned different weightings: the more liquid and risk-free the asset, the higher it counts. Cash is completely accounted, at 100%, but a risky bond might be counted at 10% only. Some assets might not count at all. The difference between the average short-sale price, and the current market price, multiplied by the short position size, can't exceed our high quality liquid assets, or we get a margin call. Liability: Current Market Price * Position Size, the value of the equities owed Assets: Average Sold Price * Position Size, the cash we got for the sales Our collateral must be greater than the difference between these. `(Average Sold Price - Current Market Price) * (Position Size) < = Value of HQLA Suddenly, demand - which has been growing steadily thus far - spikes. This has gone viral, and the transacted volume goes insane - way beyond what we can handle. The daily demand is bigger than the pile, so we're forced to let some of it through. Our methods had not been stress tested before, and thus we slipped. This means the price starts increasing, which fuels both more demand - from FOMO - and more supply - from people who consider the stock overvalued, and an easy short. The internal supply chains break, suddenly everyone's getting margin requirement notifications. The brokers don't necessarily know what's happening, all they know is that they sold a lot of the stock, and before they can turn around and buy it from us, the price has doubled - margin requirements go up! So, seeing this, trading is stopped at the broker level - they literally can't afford to owe any more shares. The apple store is out of apples. Close only. We, however, can keep selling, and we do. No new long positions, only new short positions - perfect, the price has to go down, regardless of the demand! The price falls down, the news spin this as a squeeze that's now over. The price falls all the way down to 40$, and then something breaks. Someone gets a margin requirement they can't meet, or someone places a buy order that's large enough, or something else happens, and forced buying begins, which again spikes the price. Liquidations are carried out, and at some point, these short positions end up in the market maker's books. While a hedge fund can get killed from such a spike, not us. We're a massive player, and we can sustain a lot more. We consolidate most of the short positions, to avoid any further melt-ups, and formulate an actual long-term strategy to get out of this mess. Melvin, Archegos, and others, are now dead, and we hold their books within ours. Up to now, we've had to survive by using collateral against the short positions, which means that, at a certain point, we need to liquidate non-qualifying assets, and turn them into cash (or some other acceptable form of collateral.) Therefore, when the stock price rises, we need to sell our other positions, and turn them into cash. This explains the stock's negative beta: when its price rises, we sell other stocks to raise cash, which lowers their prices. When crypto is no longer acceptable collateral, we sell it for cash, and the price dumps around June. So, in essence, the stock price has an inverse correlation to the price of anything else in our books that's not collateral. However, this isn't the best way to handle this - this is affecting the rest of our business, and won't work in a longer timeframe. Since we're a market maker, we don't really need to do the whole song and dance around borrowing shares, and holding collateral we can just directly create them as liabilities. This is the famous Fail to Deliver - they marked your assets and their liabilities, but that's it. Also, instead of being worried about collateral we're now worried about solvency. Okay so we turn around to security based swaps/total return swaps. What are these? They're a piece of paper that's worth the difference between the values/returns of two securities. I can then replace the shorts vs. collateral method with swaps. No need to bother so much with high quality collateral, since whatever's on the other side of the swap essentially functions as collateral - I only need collateral for the difference. I can get a negative exposure on the stock price, against a positive exposure on the overall market. This way, if both go up together, then it makes no difference to me. Likewise if they both go down together. Any decrease in value from the movement of one is offset by the movement in the other. Let's assume our swap is done against a broad market basket and call it the counterweight (CW.) Now, instead of the stock and the market having an inverse correlation, they have a positive one. If the stock goes up 10%, then as long as the CW also goes up 10%, then the value of the swap hasn't changed. I don't have to massively sell anything, it's less suspicious, reporting rules are way more relaxed, the enforcement agency is much more, uh, amenable to my proposals. This works both for being long stock vs short market, or long market vs short stock - I can finetune my exposure both ways. Importantly, what before were these counter-cyclical spikes, are now pro-cyclical. Has the stock gone up? Nah, it's the whole market, nothing suspicious! While before we counteracted the demand with short-selling, now we just fail to deliver - essentially neutralizing demand. Sure, that's even more troublesome, but nobody's ever paid any mind to Dr. Trimbath before, why would they start now? So if anyone buys the stock, we just add that to our liabilities, without it impacting actual market supply/demand. We can selectively decide to let some demand pass, in case we need to raise the price. What this brings about, then, is a delicate balance: we can let demand for the stock reach the market, in which case the price increases. we can let demand for the stock go to our liabilities directly, in which case the price decreases. Then, we can observe demand/supply, and have an algorithm decide which % of purchases to deliver. Monitor social media. Bullish sentiment? Sell them calls, and reduce the delivery % (let the spot purchases go directly to the balance sheet) - price doesn't rise. Bearish sentiment? Do the opposite. So now If the stock's demand goes up, we can decide whether to lower the delivery %, through which we avoid a price increase, but in exchange become more levered. We want the price to be as high as possible, up to the point in which we get margin called - the ceiling. Therefore, we'll deliver as much as we can, and start FTDing when the price gets too high. If the stock's demand goes down, we can decide to increase the delivery %, through which we lower our leverage, but in exchange the price doesn't go down. We don't want low prices: more people will buy, and we'll lower our average entry price. Therefore, we'll reduce leverage as much as we can. We might prefer to lower the price, but that'd depend on more meme-manipulative strategies, and not market-based ones. Therefore, we observe demand + supply, and decide what % to internalize, and what % to externalize, thereby controlling the price. Depending on how big of an institution we are, we might be able to do the same, to a lesser extent, to the CW itself. Say, if we processed 70% of all orders, who's to say we can't nudge the S&P a bit, eh? Even if we can't, though, that's unimportant. If the CW's price goes up, that gives us more breathing range. We can tolerate a higher ceiling stock price without danger, so we'll internalize less, reducing leverage, and increasing the price, until we reach the new, heightened ceiling. If the CW's price goes down, that gives us less range. We can tolerate a lower ceiling high stock price or risk a margin call, so we'll have to internalize more, and become more levered, but lowering the stock price. Alternatively, we may choose to pump the CW - a couple million hitting the ask at the right moment should be enough. We have, then, two variables of import: the CW's price, over which we may or may not have a degree of influence. the stock price, which results from demand, which we observe, and % of FTDs, which we control. In this way, short selling is something we long stopped doing. Did the shorts close? Not really, but who cares. The question is whether we still have an exposure to the stock price, regardless of the mechanism. Up to now we have a nice little model. It's not infallible: our control over the variables might not be perfect, and if demand doesn't stop we'll eventually be in trouble, but these dudes need to eat - wait long enough, and they'll get discouraged. A split, you say? The size of my liabilities hasn't changed. Yeah, they're 4 times as many stocks, but IDGAF about stock number - I care about the notional size of the position. "In the shape of a stock dividend"? Yeah, nope. Spread some confusion about it. What can they do? Yeah, they'll seethe, but they've already been seething all along. If someone in an actual position of power comes around, we'll send some guys in suits to dazzle them with words. Who will they believe, the suits, or cherrypicked examples of particularly stupid apes? We like the chaos. The more chaos, the more tiring it is to find the truth, and the longer we can get away with shit. Unless the company withdraws from our system. In which case, I have no idea, because the debate shifts over to the legal battleground instead. What else could threaten us? Well. You know what. DRS. (Direct Registration of shares) Moving these lendable shares out of brokers hands, and off of the DTCC. On one hand, if 100% of the shares are accounted for outside our system, then we're suddenly on the defensive. Now they don't really have to care about what we say the price is, do they? They could separate completely, accounting for all the shares, and trade within a separate system. What would we do with the deluge of DRS that'll hit? I have no idea, but it seems like the supply/demand equivalent of dividing by zero. On the other hand, every share removed is, essentially, forcefully accounted demand. Say, you buy a share, I drop it on liabilities and FTD, and then you DRS it, then you're indirectly increasing leverage, since (total shares in books/actual shares in my vault, "the ratio") just got reduced by one on both the numerator and denominator. Do that enough times, and since the numerator is higher than the denominator, we're gradually increasing the ratio, which makes the effect of demand on price have a larger magnitude. How? Because the ratio is also the ratio in which I transform demand into either a price increase or leverage. When we turn demand into price increase or leverage, the rate at which that happens is that ratio - the more we DRS, the higher the "cost" of turning demand into price or leverage. Meaning, the more we DRS, the more violent price changes will be, and the more magnified the leverage assumed will be. DRS 100%, and that rate becomes Therefore, a separate market observer might want to consider two indicators as endgame conditions: the DRS percentage + its rate of change, which can be proxied by the price of the stock, against some measure of how much free cash retail has, because this determines the speed of DRS. The lower the price, and the more available cash, the faster DRS will increase. the price of the stock, against the CW (let's assume a broad market index of multiple asset classes.) If the stock outpaces the market, then we know the swaps are closer to breaking - this will have two possible effects: every time except the last, it will cause the stock price to go down, or the market prices to go up, to keep the swaps alive. eventually, the swaps will die, and then the stock will go up, and the CW go down, in a self-reinforcing de-leveraging. So now what the hell happens? I have no clue. I wouldn't want to find out, either. I'd take more and more risky moves. If at one point I'd have been careful about the legality of my moves, then by the end that wouldn't really matter much. Might even want to try to get political power to leverage that. After a certain point, the capital market problem spills over into the legal, social, memetic, political. Whoever's managing this shitshow hasn't slept well in a while, I can guarantee that. Let’s see how this Ballad continues/pans out, If you made it down here I commend you for at least taking the time in reading this.To all of my Retards, I will see you on Banana Planet.
NYSE:GMELong
by Captain_Cam
23