GME
SPY 1994 - BRINK OF THE LARGEST BULL RUN OR MASSIVE BEAR MARKETAll,
In previous posts I discussed how the market appears to be bullish (but overall bearish longer term for now) which it is ... till around 435-440 I think. What I did was take the 1994 speed fan/speed lines whatever you want to call them (big deal more than people think it's not some fib thing it's far far more in depth and you will see hedges like on AMC stop speed fans from peaks to cause a totally different dynamic the way the stock trades (google it in depth its not discussed in great detail for a reason IMO)
Bull Scenario:
-Entering back into this 1990s speed fan/arc/lines would cause a breakout of current pattern and send us exploding into an actually crazier bull run imo after a retest of the break.
Bear Scenario: (why you see all the doomsday stuff), this would be the current pattern we are in which makes sense. How many times have we seen SPY fractal on lower timeframes of rising wedge fall? Exactly. It has now worked it's way up to the daily/weekly/monthly time fractal. So I think around 440 430s we are going to see one of the biggest market changes in a very long time not sure which way yet, but it will be a massive change.
ZM - BIG MOVE COMING SOONAll,
I think ZM is at an absolutely critical area. This will either break up big time or break down and retrace wave 2? This is a wait and see and follow entier market direction with it. I potientally see it going for a retrace then breaking. However it's almost right over the edge of breaking. WW for sure.
AMC - Shadow Banking and Meme StocksIdea for AMCs:
- Commercial and Industrial Bank of China: $5T+ AUM. 4 biggest banks in world are in China (they are state owned - guess who is the largest asset manager in the world) with $17T+ AUM.
- p value of 0 for correlation with meme stocks.
- Look what preceded the short squeezes in meme stocks.
- If it quacks like a duck...
- Asset Management Companies/Corporations (AMCs) are shadow banks that quite literally rule the world. Money precedes policy.
2 ways to look at it:
- China has been cracking down on shadow banks: "Gamestop for AMCs?"
- AMC being elevated to meme status has shrouded the actual AMCs and now they are being worshipped.
- Who is behind the AMC short squeeze? It's simple... AMCs are behind AMC. That's who is backing the retail apes. Of course hedge funds get eaten alive... Always a bigger fish.
- Media blaring is worthless, even hedge fund/MM actions are meaningless. Look at AMCs. It is also too costly for MMs to manipulate this indicator.
- This is what moves markets. Know what moves markets and you can frontrun "6 sigma events".
- CIBC at the end of a distribution pattern, watch out.
- BlackRock and Vanguard together have $18T+ AUM.
- Can US and EU AMCs absorb all the selling with money printing (at the expense of further devaluation of USD and pricing out middle class)? I think not. More likely they will move together, US and EU just don't want to be the first one out. Bubble pop soon on global assets.
GLHF
- DPT
GME Gamestop Strong Support AreaGME Gamestop lost some traction on WSB recently, which made me think about a possible retracement to a support level that i might considering reentering this stock.
And that support is around the 130usd area!
I am looking forward to read your opinion on where GME Gamestop is heading now!
Doji and Spring!!! GME Daily GME got it - Doji followed by a nice spring candle on the daily chart.
Bears may still manage to smash the price down a little bit more before lift off - see chart of candle set up before last rip.
Don't fret if the GME spring gets pushed down a little more from here - GME is so close! Stay Buckled Up!
Not financial advice.
RTX - A PROXY FOR AIRLINES/AIRLINE INDUSTRY (RYCEY, AAL, BA)Airlines have had quite the run up since the low. Warren Buffet is way past his prime.
BUT WTF IS THIS PRICE ACTION!?
I've done a fair amount of "research" into the numbers here and here's my best attempt to make sense of it.
We all know the COVID correction was the E wave of a triangle. That was obvious. You see it on every major index.
Triangles happen in wave 4's... so now wtf is this "impulse??"
The 3-3-3-3-3 wave structure points towards some type of diagonal for the bullish count.
This sort of chop is going to wash people out if you don't have a game plan.
Here's mine.
It's always critical to pay attention to RSI or some other momentum indicator to spot corrections.
We know RSI rarely exceeds ~70 in corrections and rarely goes lower than ~30 in uptrends. We will use this rule to define most of the PA.
We define the primary channel shown in bold.
and subchannels for each subwave in lighter color.
Annotations shown on chart.
We see waves A and B of 3 clearly.
When you get into the subdivision of C, that's where you have to pay attention to detail.
Two conflicting things are shown.
By EW rules you have another leg up. This also makes sense from the geometry of an expanding diagonal - you want to put in that awkward third wave.
This would align with a channel break which is typical.
However, if you look at the 4 hr RSI, you are already getting a reaction at 70. For this reason, I am not swing trading this last "potential wave up."
I am waiting for a retrace of wave 4... might take a few months.
However, I am still holding my long-term RYCEY as it is possible that stock pops during this last leg up.
You usually see w4 marked by the channel bottom, and w5 must be larger than w3.
For this structure, that would lead to a >50% gain.
Here is my Boeing BA chart as reference which shows a very similar sort of relationship in movement, albeit coiling down triangle rather than impulse.
RYCEY
GME | Wyckoff Accumulation PS— Preliminary Support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a continued down-move.
- Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
SC—Selling Climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually in high point and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom.
- Often price will close well off the low in an SC , reflecting the buying by these large interests.
AR—Automatic Rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly decline.
- A wave of buying easily pushes prices up.
- The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation.
ST—Secondary Test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand.
- If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be decline as the market approaches support in the area of the SC .
- It is common to have multiple STs after an SC .
LPS—Last Point Of Support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after an SOS.
BU/LPS- Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistant, on diminished spread and volume .
SOS—Sign Of Strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume .
- GME is in a Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern
- Latest drop indicates a Bear Trap setting up GME for new ATHs
Elon Regrets Tweeting GamestonkI've enjoyed watching the GME saga play out over the past 6 months.
TSLA and the wood gang must regret when elon tweeted Gamestonk that iconic evening.
Before that tweet I didn't know anything about the stock market. You could say it was a wakening for many people.
TSLA has been racing towards this death cross ever since that night.
Most recently rallying through 2 ascending triangle breakouts only to come face to face with Death (Cross).
GME Short-Term TAShort-term TA (1-2 weeks).
We should be seeing a gradual movement upwards seeing as the past 2 days we have seen the price bottom out on the descending channel floor and was rejected twice (Double Bottom).
The price should be testing the 50 day EMA and 200 day EMA on both the 15 minute and 2hr timeframes (just my preferred timeframes).
The ceiling right now is around $208-210 with the 200 day EMA 2hr @ $210.91
Price has also respected the Fibonacci Retracement calculated support levels of 61.80% / $186.09 and continued up. The 50th percentile calculated resistance is $242.78 which would sufficiently confirm a break out of the descending channel consolidation; or cup and handle formation.
In the short term '15 min timeframe', we see the MACD is about to crossover bullish, so potentially we could see some movement upwards today.
All indicators pointing to large price increase. Posting this for posterity sake.
NYSE:GME
I'm seeing some major consolidation - and this is a really good thing. It means the proverbial rocketship is getting fueled up.
The implications of the fib retracement this are that the stock will trade within each of these bands. Each of the lines provides a support or a resistance level depending on if the price is going up (it's going to fight a resistance line) or if it's going down (it's being held up by a support line). Look at the price patterns in the blue box and you'll see a good relationship of price action within different price ranges. In short, within a few days or maybe a couple weeks max, I'd expect the stock to see a big jump. The longer it stays at a steady-level, the bigger the blast-off.
LazyBear RSI:
Now, look at the module just below the price & volume action. This is the WaveTrend oscillator that LazyBear designed. It's a fancier version of RSI oscillator. Below the blue, means oversold, above the red means overbought. Right now the indicator is mildly negative. But the slope of the line is becoming more shallow, which generally means you'd expect a reversal in the trend. The graduality of it aligns with a consolidation signal. In this case (a bull case) this is a good thing. It means things are getting setup.
GME bottom confirmed!!! BUY BUY BUY! great time to buy confirmed bottom. last time i buy 160, drop to 140 is better bottom. This time i think its 200 but 180 is better bottom. But i jumped the gun and bought at 216 bec of fomo! Now is perfect time to buy bro buy buy buy and get your NFT dividend next weeeeeeeek babbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy. LFG!!!! GME GME GME GME GME GME GME GME
GME reached important support levels. Is the bottom in?GME reached the 200 MA on the 8h + extended hours, it hit the S3 weekly, the diagonal support, a VP HVN and it managed to get into an area that was previously resistance (currently turned into support). So to me this either is the bottom, or GME is in trouble. This is a massive combo and the structure of GME in the long term is still bullish. In my opinion the double top at 340 has a change to break and is what has me quite bullish.
Of course there are several issues in the global economy, meme stocks haven't been doing well and so on... but this doesn't mean that we can't see another big rally. That requires that things don't crash right now and that we stay in a bullish environment for stocks... which over the last few weeks/months has been turning bearish and mostly favoring large caps. Going long here isn't a bad choice imho with stops below 160, otherwise wait for the market to close above 220 to start looking for longs.
$GME - Alt T+21-35 cyclesHere's what i think the cycles really look like. I don't like it when people just arbitrarily pick a place and start counting equidistant T+21 and T+35 forever and call it "The Cycle".
Instead i've gone ahead and arbitrarily picked my own dates and have drawn my own sort of equidistant T+21 and T+35's.
Believe what you want in the end. I've come to the conclusion that this is what the cycle looks like and not exactly like how everyone else visualizing it. I've used option flow data to find anomalous option data and based some of these cycles on those, on the 2 ATM offerings, DFV's exercise as well as the 2 market buy ins that happened sometime in Feb/March. Tldr: I didn't pull these out of my arse.
I'd love to sit and write my whole thesis here on how i've come up with this, but because i've in fact already written it elsewhere, i'm just going to link to there...
www.reddit.com
www.reddit.com
I'd paste this content here but the format would break a lot so... if you wanna know how i come up with this stuff, just read those 2 links or whatever. Anyway i think that people are counting T+21 and T+35 from the wrong place and are also too adamant about things happening on exactly T+21 and T+35 where that shouldn't be people's expectation. The T+'s are deadlines. People should be expecting things to happen BEFORE a deadline, not exactly on the day of the deadline and that's the mistake everyone is making when trying to visualize T+21 and T+35.
In reality, the cycles are much more dynamic than people are making them up to be. There's things like ATM offerings for more shares happening which just disrupt any existing cycles. For whatever reason, people aren't even taking these real life / fundamental things in consideration when counting T+21 and T+35. It's like doing raw technical analysis on a company you don't know, yes the technical analysis might show a bullish wedge, but you didn't consider the real life news that the company released saying they're going bankrupt... So yeah, if you don't factor these things in, you're just counting T+21 and T+35 from random meaningless points on a chart to other random meaningless points on the chart.
My visualization of the cycles whilst looking complete, it's really not. There's a lot more micro cycles i would've loved to add, but the chart would be come too convoluted for anyone to understand. The idea however is that within the T+35's, there's also multiple T+21's ending. You can identify these by the Short at T+18 and cover at T+21 patterns all over the chart. You'll see a lot of random large downward daily spikes, then an equal spike 1-3 days later which is the net 0 short cover. The only reason they drop the price here is to kick the can with options by hiding FTD's in far OTM puts in the $0.5 - $5 range (and maybe in the $0.5 - $50 range) then proceed to cover their net 0 short a few days later.
The behavior of the shorts is extremely visible on the chart, you just need to be able to identify their patterns correctly and i think i've for the most part done that.
GameStop (GME) • Gravity steps in soonI think GameSpot is done. We are going to see significant pullback from here.
Volumes are looking exhausted and there is no more steam to prop this up. All depends on the short interest and institutional interest to squeeze shorts up.
Overall there are several good reasons why this should go down (hard) while only one for this to move up.