Get started

GLD

AW Silver Long Trade Idea - Based On The Silver and Gold Video..This long trade idea is based on the latest video - THE SILVER & GOLD VIDEO linked below in related ideas. Silver has printed some very clear waves over the last few years and is getting ready for a nice move up. I do not believe Silver will make a new all-time-high in this run up, so shorting at the highs is encouraged. Only trade these moves if you understand the waves especially AriasWave because that is what this idea is based on. I created AriasWave methodology for this specific reason, so that you know what comes next. Confirmation for this move up will come in at break of 21.30. ENTRY: 21.30 (Or at Market) STOP: 18.00 (Critical Support) OR The Low Once 21.30 is surpassed. TARGET: $46.00 Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by AriasWave
AW Analysis - THE SILVER AND GOLD VIDEO...In this video I explain exactly what I believe is going on in the grand scheme of things. Everything you have been told about precious metals is a lie. Believe it or not, the waves are going to do what the waves will do. I believe that looking at precious metals as a safe haven asset is a fool's game. Humans will always come up with different reasons why it's a good idea to do anything. You could convince young traders that a warship is their mother. Check it out, let me know what you think. Learn the waves, it will be the best thing you ever did for your trading abilities. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AriasWave
AW Gold Analysis - The Great Gold Reset...If you have ever seen the price structure since 1344AD (yes one-three-four-four) you will realize that Gold is in a huge bubble. These psychological structures are built over time as the collective consciousness looks for answers by going back to the old ways. I see this as nothing more than another long-term Zig-Zag pattern that needs to see a final low before reversing back to the upside. That low would see price go below the $20 dollar area after we top out over the next few months. I believe that the tightening of the money supply over the coming years will destabilize the whole money printing thesis. Check out my previous idea on the 10-year bond yield linked below where I reflect on the pattern there since 1100AD. I believe Gold is making a similar pattern with the difference being the shape, size and duration of each wave component, as with any chart. They will both eventually go back to extremely lows over time with gold leading the way by several years. You cannot see the first part of the Wave A Zig-Zag because it happened between 1934 - 1971 during World War II. The latest move at the highs is a Weak 5-Wave Move which means it is the final move in this entire structure since 1934. When you see another all-time-high, this would be a good time to sell. Not financial advice! Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AriasWave
3
Have Gold and Silver bottomed? What do charts tell us?Gold has had a very healthy pullback into a critical zone. Last year it had a significant move down, took out all the lows around 1700, and bounced hard. Despite interest rates and the US Dollar being much higher than 1-2 years ago, Gold has held extremely well. After its rally since its November bottom, it finally pulled back and got into crucial support. To me, it's critical support because that's where the market topped before the last leg down, and a level around which it chopped for a while before breaking out at the beginning of the year. These levels are also crucial because they acted as resistance in 2011-2012, while this is an area the market traded at for a long time. Gold went in a relatively short period, from oversold, to overbought to back into a fair price (all on the weekly chart timeframe). It looks like it will aim for the 2100 level to sweep the double top that formed right after the Russian invasion, as the current structure doesn't look bearish. It feels pretty unlikely that we will get prices lower than 1700 before we take out the highs first. I would consider a close below 1700 a significantly bearish signal, but until then, I see the market as bullish. As it is now at the yearly pivot, it might have one last dip to fill some of the gaps lower and then start aiming for all the higher gaps, along with the double top, as such blatant double tops tend to be broken. Silver seems to be in a somewhat similar position. Silver has a double top created much more recently and has significant gaps to the upside. In my previous ideas, I discussed Silver going up to 24 and topping around that level. My longs worked, but I never shorted, and I am okay that I didn't because it took the trade a long time to work. Timing in trading matters, and you can't be in a short trade like this for too long. In this case, the market bottomed at massive support, bounced, had a healthy correction, and is now getting closer to support again. The chart is somewhat weird, but I doubt we will see much lower prices before seeing new highs. Both for Gold and Silver, I thought lower prices were possible, but until I see a liquidity crisis begin, I can't call for much lower prices. Both formed excellent bases, especially Silver. Gold to 1300-1400 and Silver to 14-16$ before going higher isn't impossible. However, given what's happening with inflation and the financial system, I doubt it will happen. China and Russia are buying Gold; long-term inflation won't get under control, and the risk of a significant financial crisis is looming. I would say that silver doesn't seem to be in a good situation, mainly due to its industrial demand being heavily impacted and the fact that central banks would only buy gold, not silver. So what's the bull case here for gold and silver? 1. Liquidity cycle turned up. Dollar and rates will come down while money will keep flowing. 2. Tensions among countries leading countries/investors to neutral alternatives. 3. Hedges in case of escalating crises of all sorts. It's possible that due to all the material and labor shortages, investing in stocks isn't ideal. Investing in commodities like Copper might be a better alternative, given their importance in a rapidly changing global economy. Gold and Silver might do very well in an environment of many negative changes but might not outperform some commodities that face major shortages. Below we can see the nice bounce of Copper off support and its clean reclaim of the Yearly pivot. For example, Copper could be one of the great beneficiaries of the transition to the green economy and the Chinese reopening.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BitcoinMacro
A traders’ week ahead playbook – trades in a lower vol market Looking at FX 1-week implied (options) volatility, we are guided by how the market sees the upcoming event risk impacting how far price can extend and subsequently our potential trading environment. It’s the percentile rank that jumps out here, as most FX pairs and gold are closer to the bottom end of their own 12-month range – in essence, the market is not expecting big moves – up or down – and while this is a reflection that price moves have realised at low levels, the data and known event risk are not expected to materially change the fundamental landscape. Implied volatility matrix The bond market is as influential as ever The bond market remains such an important driver of all markets, but after moves higher in yield on the week, we see fatigue in the selling in 2 & 5-year Treasuries - this has caused some angst to push the USD higher, after giving the USD bulls hope of a bullish breakout (USDX) from the consolidation zone. For example, we saw US 5yr Treasury rise to 4.14% on Friday but reverse to close at 4.02% and this has kept the yield premium over German bunds unchanged last week at 1.20% - it’s part of the reason why EURUSD held the 1.0655 support well. I am guided on the USD by UST 5’s this week, and while it still holds the premise to kick higher (USD positive) my base case is this price action becomes choppy and range-bound – it seems the volatility markets agree. The next big event risk remains Powell’s testimony This week’s US data holds some risk for traders to hold exposures over, but as we gear up for the 22 March FOMC meeting, the eyes of the world really look forward to Jay Powell’s Congressional testimony (7 March) as the next tier 1 event risk – we could see some better vol conditions leading into that speech. For this week, while we get a few Fed speakers, the Feb FOMC minutes are largely stale but could still hold some nuggets for the market to work with. Expectations for US core PCE look a tad low, with the consensus not having been adjusted for the big PPI surprise. We get idiosyncratic global event risks that could be vol events, but unlike US data which resonates through multi-asset markets, should be confined. Global events to put on the radar Canadian CPI could impact the CAD in a big way if we get a hot number above 6.3%. The RBNZ meeting could be also one to put on the radar – the market prices 44bp of hikes here, and NZD implied volatility is priced higher than other FX pairs. While inflation is rampant in NZ, the announcement of the state-wide emergency in response to Cyclone Gabrielle could see the RBNZ look to reduce the blow to households, such as we saw for the support to the Christchurch earthquake. I am not sure that hits home and households feel the support on a below-expectations 25bp hike - so it’s either 50bp (consensus) and be the bad guys (but they have a job to do right?) or leave rates unchanged in my mind – the latter an outcome that could mean the NZD gets smacked off the bat – a compelling risk-reward event-driven view here when only 1 of 22 economists are calling for it, although I’d be getting out quickly on that. Aussie wages hold significance – the bigger reaction in the AUD comes if the market gets a sense that the RBA’s sanguine view on a wage-price spiral is misplaced – as we see in the playbook above 3.5% YoY wage growth and it could get spicy. AUD positioning, however, leveraged accounts (typically hedge funds) are already long and the market AUDUSD is far more correlated to copper, AUS-US 5yr yield differentials and USDCNH. See the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern at 0.6877, where a break would target 0.6650 – I’m personally not the biggest H&S fan, but one man’s trash…. AUDNZD looks the better play for trading Aussie data and the daily looks ready to kick higher – I am on notice. Staying on the positioning vibe, I notice the JPY is by far and away the professional leveraged accounts' biggest long exposure at present – this could get tested this week with incoming BoJ gov Ueda speaking as part of a panel, while Nat. CPI could push further higher and see calls for an end to YCC kickback into gear – both clear risks for JPY and JPN225 exposures. Equity market moves On the equity side, we continue to watch the USD and bond market plays – the terminal fed funds pricing (now 5.28%) looks fair and I can't see it moving much higher than 5.3% at this point. Equity markets could find some support from that, but the bears will want to see 4050 give way in the US500, and 12,200 in NAS100 – That’s where the buyers are stepping in and a daily close below here could see a higher vol priced. The HK50 always gets a good look-in from clients and that seeing better-trending conditions, with traders selling into rallies into the 5- or 8-day EMA. Earnings from Alibaba and Baidu this week could impact the HK50, especially Alibaba given the implied move and sizeable weighting a HK$2.11t market cap hold. A big week of AUS200 earnings On the earnings side – in the US, while 81% of corporates may have reported, this week we get earnings and outlooks from several of the big retailers and that could impact at a macro level too. In Australia, we’ve seen 47% of the Aussie index report earnings, with 63% of those having beaten (or come in line) expectations on EPS, while 67% have beaten on sales, with an aggregate 12% sales growth seen. It’s the big week of earnings here too, with this being the week where the biggest absolute number of companies hit the wires – BHP, RIO, WOW, and QAN to name a few. It could get a level in the AUS200, which like the HK50 is also trending lower and needs to see support at the 38.2% fibo (of the Jan-Feb rally) at 7321 holds. Play of the week? CADCHF – one of the best mean reverting plays at present, with the market playing an ever-narrowing trading range – 46 days in a 200-pip range. The Bollinger Band squeeze could result in something explosive, and as we’ve seen in the past five years the cross can have some explosive moves when it does break out after a quiet period.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
Gold is about to breakout above $2k - Here we goThe Fed and US economic data will likely prompt s big move in Gold/Silver over the next 36+ months. My read on the data is that we are starting a price cycle that is similar to 2002~2005 again. Early bullish trending throughout 2002~05 prompted a massive 500% rally in Gold - reaching a peak in 2011. If that happens again from the $1700 support level, we may see Gold reach levels above $11,000 by 2027~28. This is NOT the same market condition as 2019~2022. Follow my research
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
2
What an incredible rally in GOLD from Support - what's next?This incredible rally in Gold won't really end until prices reach levels above $2250. My target is closer to $2400 - but we'll see how things play out. Overall, Gold moves in $350 price phases. From recent lows, the top of that $350 price phase is near $1985. I would suspect a moderate pause/pullback after reaching the $1985 level. The low of that pause/pullback will prompt another $350 upward price phase. If we assume the low of the pullback will be near $1900, then the upper target of the next upward price phase will be $2250+. Eventually, as Gold shifts into a parabolic phase, those $350 price phases will increase.. A. $481 B. $525 C. $566 D. $700 As the speculative phase in precious metals continues, we'll see varying expansion/contraction phases until the peak is reached after 2027~28. Hang tight, this is just getting started. Follow my research.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
GOLD and XRP: Fun Comparison IdeaHere we are looking at GOLDs chart structure prior to its massive 10 year run up in the 2000’s, compared to XRPs chart structure dating back to March 2020. It’s important to note that the GOLD fractal we’re looking at is on the monthly time frame while we’re looking at XRP on the daily… Nonetheless, the two charts have daunting similarities in structure, which I find very interesting. While this chart is strictly just an idea, and is not intended to in any way to say that XRP will continue to follow the path that GOLD followed into the early 2000’s, I found the similarities to be very thought provoking, so I thought I’d share it with you all. Do you think XRP is following a similar path to that of GOLD in the early 2000’s, or will XRPs chart deviate from here? Let me know in the comments! Cheers!!
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by GarethSolowayOfficial
7
GLD short term short, long term bull trend intactGLD was in a down trend from March 22 until early November 22 Since GLD broke that trend it has turn former resistance into support with confirmation on Jan 13 GLD broke through the next reistance zone around 175 and is now peaking at almost 180$ even though on Jan 17 and 18 GLD traded down and then came back strong on Jan 19 it still needs to come back and visit this former resistance for confirmation. ADX over 20 indicates strong trend, here on the 1 day it is 40 with the +DI (green) in bullish spread (40 v 13) 50 day DEMA crossed the 200 day DEMA in late November The price has gotten far above the 50 day DEMA, another clue that a short term correction is in order.
AMEX:GLD
by CryptoSlayerFX
What takes gold into $2k ??With the weakness in the USD - where the DXY holds the potential to crack the consolidation lows and EURUSD looks to break the 1.0875 and 1.0750 range - married with the grind lower in US real rates (lower pane) - we’re seeing new cycle highs in gold. A range break in the DXY would certainly be helpful in the quest to push price to $2000, which is the big target for the bulls ahead of the ATH of $2075 – given where XAU 1-week implied vols sit the market prices with about a 5% chance of a move to the big number this coming week, so one for another time and perhaps post FOMC meeting (1 Feb). Slower US growth is gold’s friend here and a hedge against a recession means long USTs, and gold appreciation. Are we sufficiently overbought? We're certainly heading that way but I'd argue the elastic band hasn’t been sufficiently pulled just yet. Here we see price now 6.7% premium to the 50-day MA which is lofty as you can see below, but we can get a far higher probability of mean reversion when price holds a 10% premium to the average. So watching USD flows in what will be a quiet week of data next week - also real rates for a move into the 2 Dec low of 1.10% - should we see both scenarios' play out then gold could push to $2k - but the risk of a pullback within the bullish trend and prior to price hitting $2k is clearly rising, although we expect drawdowns to be contained
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Pepperstone
2