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GLD

Topside Exhaustion in GoldThe Gold rally faltered today into uptrend resistance on building momentum divergence, just ahead of the 2022 high-day close at 2050. Initial support with the March channel (red) with the broader outlook constructive while above the median-line (currently ~1920s) Ultimately a close above the record high at 2075 is needed to unleash the next major leg higher in gold with initial objectives eyed at 2150. Michael Boutros , Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com Follow Michael on MBForex @MBForex
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
Opened (Margin): GLD May 19th 185/Sept 15th 210 LPD*... for a 19.98 debit. Comments: Taking a bearish assumption directional shot in GLD here on strength. Buying the back month -90 delta put and selling the front month +30 to emulate the delta metrics of a covered put (i.e., short a one lot of stock + short a put). Cost basis of 19.98 with a 190.02 break even on a 25 wide. 5.02 ( SGX:502 ) max profit, assuming a finish sub-185, 25.1% ROC at max; 12.6% at 50% max. Will generally look to roll out the short put at 50% max to the shortest duration 30 delta strike that is at or below my break even. With the back month out in September, I have quite a few opportunities to reduce cost basis if the setup doesn't work out immediately. * -- Long Put Diagonal.
AMEX:GLDShort
by NaughtyPines
ETHUSD Breakout Eyes First Major HurdleA breakout of the monthly opening-range takes Ethereum towards the first major technical zone at the August highs / 100% extension of the late-November advance at 2029/42- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Initial support rests with the August high-day close at 1936 backed by bullish invalidation at the monthly open (1821). A topside breach exposes slope resistance (currently ~2150s) backed by the 100% extension of the broader June advance at 2222.
KRAKEN:ETHUSD
by MBForex
1
Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels ScalpSilver's price action has been curious, as it started to drop suddenly right at the beginning of February. Lost 5% in a day, in fact. Gold took a little bit longer to move, and notably dumped on a much smaller magnitude. I have an open call from mid-January that gold is likely to correct, and it appears to be coming to fruition: Gold GC1 - Discard Greed, Enjoy the Tranquility of Rationality The thesis being that the Nasdaq and tech will moon... Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for Permabears And as it does, metals will dump, and once the stock market is exhausted then the pump cycle will rotate back into metals, and things will really go. All that being said, I believe that based on Silver's price action that it's dumped for the purpose of short trapping and liquidating longs and is about to make another move up before silver really starts to head down. A warning on China Since January 10, the Chinese Communist Party has claimed that there has been 0.00 new Wuhan Pneumonia/COVID-19 cases. This comes after news that the country was absolutely sacked by the pandemic after Xi Jinping threw away the disastrous COVID-Zero social credit lockdown blunder. The after effects were so significant that countries like South Korea were suddenly blanketed in difficult-to-explain smog , which may very well have come from mainland cremation furnaces being on full blast. What this tells you is that at any moment, any bullish impulse in markets-at-large can be interrupted by big time pandemic problems, up to and including the USSR-style fall of the CCP. So you have to be careful, and you have to be prepared. Mainstream media is not going to alert you that there's any problems with their darling erstwhile model of the world they want to create: the Chinese Communist Party. They'll leave you ignorant until the disaster is sprung on you like a cantilever and you'll be the one who suffers the regrets. If you have heavy long positions you should really hedge with 60+ day 10% OTM puts on the indexes/index ETFs. The call To understand silver, we have to look at the long term price action. Monthly We're dealing with a _very_ wide dealing range between $30 and $12~. '22's low of the year was only $17.50, and any very very bearish scenario below that could see as low as $13. I have reservations that we see $13. I think that in reality a bear impulse on silver might only go as low as $15, and not for very long. On weekly bars, the present situation is more obvious. Weekly We're dealing with a 10+% pullback with both a trendline and the $25 algorithmic/psychological operation figure that went untouched. Not only did $25 go untouched, but they set a double top there before the curiously-timed dump that gold did not follow. Thus, I believe that what the market makers have set up to do is to raid the $25.50 level, perhaps in the period around Tuesday's CPI and into the end of February, before silver retreats back towards $18. The iShares Silver Trust $SLV likewise set a double top, failing to raid the previous daily high by 2 cents. All the stars are aligning, so to speak, and makes a fine trade long over $25 in anticipation of a Lyft-style fakey trendline breakout: LYFT - Buy the Dip, Ride the Lift $22 --> $25.5 is close enough to 15% and in a time horizon that should manifest before February is out. This play will also knock out a ton of short sellers, while bringing in a lot of momentum traders who like to buy highs. The MMs may also use this to drag in the fools who think that the USD is done and that their bullion will reign supreme, despite us living in an era when every central bank wants to install its own digital currency and its own CCP-style social credit system. And thus, if this pump does manifest, you have to mind your greed. Over $25 is a sell and you want to see big manipulation to the downside, because when this Party is very close to being finished, $50+ silver is legitimately coming.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by LordWrymouth
3
Gold - $2,000 Is ImminentGood news for goldbugs: GC Gold futures is projected to take out $2,000. Bad news for goldbugs: I still believe that both price action and fundamentals are short/medium-term bearish on gold and that this swing will amount to an exit pump before lower prices forecast in the below post are achieved. Gold GC1 - Discard Greed, Enjoy the Tranquility of Rationality I also believe that Silver is about to rip over $25 for roughly the same reason Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels Scalp And oil to $88 WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $5 Some key fundamentals on gold is that the Chinese Communist Party has been accumulating. I've heard that central banks tend to accumulate gold when their economy is in severe trouble and they want to make a bad situation look good. This is also a classic play in the CCP toolkit, trying to appear as if everything is great and the Party is very smart and stable even as tens of millions of citizens and technicians have died from the pandemic. Another reason for amassing gold is to convert foreign reserves/national currency into something they can trade for oil on the dark market. The CCP is not in a good situation. If you look at the stats the Party is reporting, they say that Wuhan Pneumonia (COVID) has totally disappeared from the country since Jan. 10. Not a single case, not a single death in two months, if you believe what the least credible regime on the planet has to say, at least, it's really a miracle. But you should never believe anything the CCP says. The Party is addicted to lying. There's data that says the Shanghai vault saw 140 tonnes leave in January, the largest withdrawal since 2018. Some analysis says the CCP has over 4,300 tonnes of gold in reality, twice as much as they report, making them the second largest holder behind the United States. So this tells us that the US is the market maker and the CCP, a crumbling regime that is the government of the one country everyone wants to seize control of, has decided to take a huge position, and at relatively high prices. There's good reason to believe, then, that the US has +alpha to be gained from dumping gold. But first, the MM and its custom algorithms need to take out the shortsellers who have stops above the $1,975 pivot and the buyers who will go long over the $2,000 psychological level while dreaming of a new all time high. The CCP is going to fall soon. But the skeletons in its closet from the 23.5 year long persecution and genocide against Falun Gong linger like a guillotine over not only its head, but over the heads of all the governments and corporations that have supported the Party and helped it to survive all these years. This means that the wish for China's opponents is to ensure a controlled demolition of the Party so that the truth of what's been going on all these years can be buried. The problem with getting ahead of ourselves based on last week's price action in terms of a long is that it's the beginning of the month and gold already went up 3%. So, in my opinion, I'm looking for a pullback into the $1,820 range to go long and with a target slightly over $2,000. Time horizon is by early April. Monthly candles show that February was an outside bar: Daily <--> 4H <--> 1H candles show that February took out its low of the month right at the end of the month as well. So ultimately, I expect the February low to hold, so long as I'm reading it right and price action is actually bullish, and so long as the fundamentals overall are actually bearish. And there's no reason to be immediately bearish. Although price was rather abruptly rejected at $1,975, on the way up, there were no pivots or imbalances created. The pivot was just drawn at $1,810~. We can tell this because last week's candle was also an outside bar. What I'm thinking is going to happen is that $2,000 will be achieved to clear out shorts and to trap breakout longs and hysterical top buyers. After that, the US market maker will dump metals hard to put greater economic pressure on Xi Jinping's PBOC and CCP as the world attempts to make the Party fall so that they can invade China and establish globalism, which will lead to real worldwide communism. Think of dumping metals as something of a soft sanction against China and Russia. The idea of globalism is to have the CCP's social credit scheme become standardized everywhere on the planet, and then humanity will live in a two class system: one where there is a very small group of Gates/Clinton-type elites who lord from their "holy" ivory towers over a very large garbage dump of slaves scurrying around for scraps. This is the plan. But over the very long course of history, a lot of governments and organizations have attempted to take over the world. World government has never worked out, and has always ended in disaster. Disaster, followed by a change of scenery. This is why we find buildings from old cultures at the bottom of the ocean and buried in the Earth. Be careful, and good luck.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by LordWrymouth
2
Gold - better levels for longs await Gold is in beast mode - we eye the 2022 and ATHs at $2070 and $2075 respectively and scalper aside it's hard to bet against the momentum play right now The USD is finding few friends and the ST bear trend is a massive tailwind for gold. We've seen US yield curves looking like they will resume bull steepening and rate cuts are once again being priced into OIS and fed fund futures - gold is not a hedge against inflation per se, but the symptoms of high inflation and tighter policy - i.e weaker growth and possible recession, which will likely require rate cuts to take policy back to neutral - and, of course, continued instability in US financials ahead of Q1 bank earnings on 14 April. Using a simple rates model as our guide for gold, we can see gold (inverted) has held a strong relationship with the level of cuts priced - I've used the difference between Dec fed funds and May (the peak pricing) - this simplistic model suggests, that in the short-term, gold may be a touch rich and we may see some heat coming out of the move before the buyers step in and we take another leg higher. Fundamentally it seems bad news equals bad news for the USD, and promotes a higher degree of rate cuts and subsequently gold upside Its all on Friday's NFP then - a reading <200k jobs and a weaker AHEs could see gold pushing to its ATHs
CBOT:ZQZ2023Long
by Pepperstone
🥇 Gold Futures: The Recovery After Melt In Bear HugThis publication was partially created by ChatGPT AI, under request to Offer Twenty Practical Tips On Why People Should Buy Gold. Good or bad, y'all be the judge. But here's what ChatGPT said... 1. Gold is a stable asset that is not subject to inflation and market changes. 2. Gold can serve as a good way to protect against economic crises and political turmoil. 3. Gold is highly liquid, which means it can be easily sold at any time. 4. Gold can be used to diversify a portfolio and reduce investment risks. 5. Gold is a universal asset that is recognized and valued throughout the world. 6. Gold can be used as collateral for a loan or loan. 7. Gold can be used as a gift or legacy. 8. Gold can be a store of value that will retain its value over time. 9. Gold can be used to create jewelry, which can also serve as an investment asset. 10. Gold can be used as an indicator of economic stability and inflation. 11. Gold can be used as a means of payment or exchange. 12. Gold can be used as an investment strategy on a long-term basis. 13. Gold can be used to craft collectibles that can increase in value significantly over time. 14. Gold can be used to create electronic payment systems that are based on the blockchain. 15. Gold can be used to create new types of investment products such as ETFs and futures. 16. Gold can be used to protect against currency fluctuations and devaluation of the national currency. 17. Gold can be used to hedge against inflation risks and government monetary policy. 18. Gold can be used to protect against the risks of geopolitical instability and war. 19. Gold can be used to protect against the risks of financial crises and bank failures. 20. Gold can be used to create an investment portfolio that provides stable income and risk protection. Gold Futures technical picture indicates on recovery after melt in bear hug, as a result of Gold prices break its 52-Week High.
COMEX:GC1!
by Pandorra
The Gold Odyssey - incoming, but wait...Ended the previous post on The Gold Odyssey (27 Dec 2022) with: So heads up, watch MAy 2023 for Gold prices to rally. Indeed the Down and then Uppish happened. Now, with the monthly chart, we find gold again at the border of the Constipation Box and people are getting all excited about it. I had questions about my views so I started to relook, a tad earlier than I really should (remember May 2023?) So, this chart was actually in response to someone who said that "gold always goes up" in conversation. I did not think it is "always" so I looked into the longer term and viola... The Constipation Boxes. Long term retracements can be 20-50% from peaks, and $300-400 multi-year ranges are observed. Therefore, it is opined that Gold buying should be closer to the bottom of the ranges (eg. 1 Nov 2022) or at least when technical indicators are more aligned and on your bullish side. IF you trace back, I bought Gold on 29 April 2019, two weeks after Trump launched the trade war of sorts. And released all Gold holdings on 9 August 2020. It has been a bit of a wait to get into a similarly bullish situation... The previous month closed nicely bullish, but it appears to be a little too close to the upper range, even though the technical indicators look like a bullish turnabout. Furthermore, the past three months appear reminiscent of a Bearish Sandwich Stack candlestick formation . So, let's just say that this is either 1. an imminent very bullish breakout; or 2. a bull trap to return back within the box for the next launch (possibly from about 18##) Am more inclined with the latter personally, but that's just me and my overall observations. Still maintain as per previous Gold Odyssey conclusion.
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
Spot Gold XAUUSD LongOn the 15-minute chart with a volume profile overlaid, XAUUSD broke down from a head and shoulders pattern and trended down into a double bottom. Stop Loss and 2 targets are labeled on the char along with supply and demand zones. I see this as a long swing to take on the forex market with using some leverage in conjunction with risk management in the trade including adjusting the stop-loss once the price reaches some unrealized profit and closing a part of the position once the first target is reached.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Gold trader – what takes the yellow metal to new highs?There has been an almost nirvana backdrop for gold appreciation through March, and the improved investment case has offered tailwinds which have seen spot gold trade into $2009. Gold longs would be disappointed the $2000 failed to hold though and subsequently, we see indecision on the daily chart, denoted by the pronounced ‘doji’ candle – this short-term indecision needs to rectify itself – so, either the bulls or bears need to become the dominant force. Gold longs will also want to see the breakout of the former Feb high of $1959 hold, and this could provide the platform for another momentum move higher. Naturally, this would then set us up for a daily/weekly close above $2000, which would clearly increase the prospect of a test of the highs seen in March 2022 of $2070.52. Some have suggested holding off from taking new long positions given the elevated nature of various oscillators, such as the RSI – while it tells a similar message (on risk v reward), a better guide is the net difference between the 3- and 8-day EMA, which has blown out to $40 – the highest level since March 2022. The prospect of price consolidation has therefore increased as some of the heat comes out of the move near-term. As a leveraged trader, when the bulls re-exert themselves, I would be a buyer into strength, where a daily close above $1987 would be a bullish signal. I would be far more hesitant to take longs if price closed the session below the 5-day EMA. The fundamental case for gold While the technical picture looks a tad stretched (but still bullish), the fundamental picture suggests some degree of caution is warranted. Positioning - CTA’s (systematic trend-following funds) have increased their position in gold futures to become ‘max long’. This flow has been a clear tailwind for the gold price, whereby these influential players now have limited capacity to add to an already extensive position. Pepperstone client’s current skew in positioning shows 56% of open positions in XAUUSD are held short. There have also been big flows into gold ETFs, where we saw c. 18m tonnes of inflows last week – in fact, Tuesday marked the biggest one-day inflow since mid-2022. Bullish, but is there more to come? The influence of the bond market – last week marked one of the most incredible volatile moves in US and EU bonds we’ve ever seen – I suspect funds were only to keen to hedge out some of the risks through long gold positions. The fact the US (and many other countries) has sticky, and still very high inflation, yet falling interest rate hike expectations has seen traders front-run an expected move lower in US real rates. Importantly, this relationship holds true, and we see US 5yr real Treasury yields falling from 1.89% to 1.39%, with gold rallying from $1807 to current levels. Recall, gold has no yield, so when the expected ‘real’ (i.e. bond yields adjusted for expected inflation) return falls, it makes gold relatively more attractive and vice versa. Gold benefits from expected rate cuts Here we see the difference between the May 2023 and December 2023 US swaps contract (the markets expectations of future rate hikes/cuts from the Fed) are currently pricing in 93bp of cuts through that period – last week we saw that at 120bp of cuts pried between May and December and gold followed closely. Fundamentally, one could make the case for consolidation in gold - where if this relationship holds, we’d need to see over 100bp of cuts priced to compel a rally back above $2000. A turn lower in sentiment towards US banks or a genuinely dovish turn from the Fed this week would push that pricing along. Conversely, if rate cuts do get priced out of the market here – perhaps as a better feel to banks or the general macro environment - then one could argue this could weigh on gold. QE5? Last week we saw gold buyers emerge after the Fed’s balance sheet increased by $300b – this was driven by the take up of credit from US banks as the Fed’s rolled out various liquidity facilities to help the US banking system. After much debate, the world has viewed this correctly not as QE, but as a credit line that will need to be repaid by the banks – either way, the Fed’s balance sheet expansion has supported gold. This week’s Fed balance sheet data could be influential again and the degree of demand for Fed liquidity could influence gold traders. Currency effect – on a bullish note, we can see gold has been rallying in all currencies, even the strongest, which in the past month has been the JPY. In fact, we just recorded new all-time high prints in XAUJPY (Gold priced in JPY), XAUAUD and XAUGBP. The fact we’re seeing the USD under pressure has been a tailwind for gold price – a breakout in EURUSD above 1.0635 gets the USD pumping to the downside which should support gold. Near-term drivers – we continue to watch the price action in US and EU banks and while things are calmer today there are still plenty of 2-way risks here. We get the FOMC meeting (Thurs 5 am AEDT) and this holds big implications for interest rates pricing, the USD and by extension gold – I see modest upside risk for the USD (gold downside) but much will come down to the FOMC statement and the increased level of concern.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Pepperstone
⚡️FLASH REPORT: GOLD PRICE 📈My earlier Feb 2023 flash report focused on a downside Change of Behaviour/Character in the uptrend of the Gold price from the Sept '22 low. At that time, there was a possibility that the uptrend ended. I then expected the price to re-test the Feb high. If that re-test of the high failed, I would have been confident to conclude that the uptrend was done. The caveat to this conclusion was if the price closed above the high. Fast forward to today, the price has now exceeded the Feb high. That means the downside Change of Behaviour is now void. As such, we should expect the price to move higher as the uptrend has re-established. The next logical target is the high at $2,070.
TVC:GOLDLong
by mrstockyetoro
$GLD $GOLD - Gold- my take but BEWAREMonthly chart on gold. BEWARE - Gold got suckered into in March of 2008. Here is a timeline: GLD - started Nov 2004 at $44.43 Broke out 09/2005 and topped out at $77.26 in May 2006 Consolidated until Sept 2007 with new 52 week high of 73.8. Continued consolidating upwards until it topped out at 100.44 in March 2008 (Bear Sterns sold to JPM for $2/sh) Consolidated until failed breakout rally in July 2008 before it dropped to $66 in Oct 2008 (when rest of banks collapsed) Rally then started a couple months later in December 2008 with 2-1-2 bullish reversal on monthly chart. Reversal continued until Sept 2011 when it topped out at $185.85. It bottomed in Dec 2015 at $100.23. 5 worst words of investing "this time it is different" What this is and always will be, is opportunity. Better than oil and other commodities look for sure. I am jumping on this train. This will be volatile, and I do not expect to buy all at once. My buy targets (not exact and I buy to the penny so do not use this) and stop is 1st buy - (Now) - around $180. 2nd $175 3rd $171 4th $161 - load up $158 stop If done properly, the most risk I have is around 7.65% to the downside with $205, $235, $250, and $300 as my long term price targets. $250 is the ultimate goal. This is for informational purposes only. This is not advice for anyone to use to buy or sell. These are my numbers and I did not provide all details. Just enough to sincerely help anyone who needs it.
AMEX:GLDLong
by UnknownUnicorn16739272
1