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GLD

Ready for a Move Circled are at .78 Fib retracement you can see two wicks - these were two quick rejections. I was able to sell both of them and took some profit today at yesterdays VPOC today. HOWEVER look at this price action, it went nowhere today yet managed to sweep longs and shorts. We are sitting at the top of a multi-month trend line (see related ideas) , we are also sitting on the weekly and monthly VWAPS. We have completely balanced - and now here comes the move. Looking at the RSI on the back test you'll notice how weak it is - and it was quick (barely got filled) Targets : the obviously one is the VPOC shown at 1872, HOWEVER There are more. I believe we could see 1836 to 1818. There are VPOCs there and high volume nodes to offer support. Plan: If you we get one more back test (fake move) you can take a short in the highlighted area yellow box - if price shows strength past the .78 Retracement - its invalidated. To get into this trade you might have to do so at the Asian open at 9 EST. Mostly likely they try to ramp it and sell it to retail on their open.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Maximilianned
$BLNK $BA $GLD $BIDU I OptionsSwing WatchlistBLNK 4H I Breakout from massive downtrend, has to hold the $24 level for continuation. As the infrastructure bill is discussed, we expect to see some of those efforts to focus on electric vehicle stations. BA 4H I We caught the whole move on BA. After breaking out from the falling wedge we have seen BA with strong momentum to the upside. Expecting to consolidate between $240-$250 before seeing a continuation to the upside. GLD 1D I We also caught the breakout on GLD. As long as there is uncertainty and inflation fears in the market, we will see GLD continue with its upward momentum. BIDU 1H I On the hourly we are seeing an ascending triangle on BIDU. Its getting tight, so we expect a move this upcoming week. Although this pattern tends to be bullish we remain neutral as we can play a breakout to the upside or downside.
NYSE:BA
by optionsswing
1
Got Gold? Earlier this week I published a chart showing gold was against resistance. We pulled back from it in the last day or two. See related Ideas to understand more. I had set a Tradeview Alert if we returned to the end of the trendline. That was a couple of days ago. After hours (for Gold Futures /GC) my alert went off. Which is interesting - I think this a short squeeze, Gold moved a bunch after hours. So the plan: Today they came within a tick of touching the the VPOC at 1893 - and bounced incredibly quickly back to the median price at $1900, and then higher. They took out the POC at 1906 after hours - this means there are NO higher targets, they have been obtained. Now what? I think this target at 1883 is going to happen next week. Bigger picture it's clear Gold is back alive. I'd like to see it pull back the big arrow and then go very long from there. Institutional buyers will see this as a buy signal - I know will. Expect the overhead resistance to be challenged a few times but ultimately broken. NOTE: THIS COMPRESSED IMAGE IS A TV ISSUE I can edit the text, but NOT the image to deal with their compression of the image.
COMEX:GC1!
by Maximilianned
Double Bottom and RLCO Crossover: Gold is ready to RollGold has formed a double bottom (higher low) on the 30 hour 2 STDV Bollinger band. In addition, in a configuration with a high rate of success with Gold (and ES, Bitcoin, but not most FOREX unless it's commodity associated FOREX like the Ruble, NOK, or MXN), the 10 hour regression line has crossed over the 14 hour 0.2 stdv bollinger band (an improved version of the traditional RLCO crossover system designed for shorter timeframes). The signs point to a breakout.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by David_Warren_Ellison
1
VOX HighlightsFirst Quarter 2021 Highlights • Record revenue of $539,980 and gross profit of $479,271 reported for the quarter, with inaugural revenues received from the Koolyanobbing royalty; • Increased producing royalty asset count from one asset at May 2020 listing to four assets by Q1 2021 quarter-end; • Strong balance sheet position at period end, including cash on hand of $10,723,135, working capital of $9,117,150 and total assets of $29,024,889; • Completed three portfolio transactions to acquire an additional ten royalties, reaching a total critical mass of 50 royalties and streams; • Completed an overnight marketed public offering for aggregate gross proceeds of C$16.85M; • Subsequent to March 31, 2021: - Announced a strategic partnership with Electric Royalties Limited (TSX-V: ELEC) and the potential divestment of two non-core graphite royalties for C$2.9M; and - The Company appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as their auditors effective April 30, 2021. About the Koolyanobbing Royalty The Koolyanobbing royalty is an uncapped royalty of 2% on the average/tonne Free on Board ("FOB") sales value of iron ore extracted from the Deception Deposit on mining lease M77/1258. Prior to Vox acquiring the Koolyanobbing royalty from Vonex Limited ("Vonex") in 2020, a historical pre-payment of the royalty in the sum of A$3,000,000 was made by Cliffs Asia Pacific Iron Ore Pty Ltd to Vonex. As previously disclosed in Vox's filing statement dated May 12, 2020, no royalty cash flows are payable to Vox until this pre-payment amount has been exhausted. The outstanding balance as of December 31, 2020, was A$1,782,032. Vox has entered into a binding agreement with Yilgarn Iron Pty Ltd pursuant to which Vox will extinguish the outstanding balance of the Koolyanobbing pre-payment through a cash payment of A$1,782,032 within five business days from the execution date of the agreement. Following payment of the settlement amount, effective January 1, 2021, Vox will earn royalty revenues from the Koolyanobbing royalty. Royalty revenues associated with the Koolyanobbing (Deception Pit) royalty over the past two years and forecast for 2021 are as follows: 2019 = $724,198 2020 = $493,769 2021 Forecast = $600,000 – $800,000 The Deception Pit and the Altair Pit to the north are currently being mined at a rate of 1.1Mtpa – 1.3Mtpa. Historical royalty attributable annual production on the Vox royalty tenure (M77/1258, see Figure 2) has averaged 180,000t – 360,000t and Vox management expect this royalty attributable production rate to increase in coming years as mining transitions further north within M77/1258. For more information on Koolyanobbing, please visit the Mineral Resources website at: www.mineralresources.com.au
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by TH_Analysis
Gold - Top of Trendline Nice move for gold over the last two months. Its sits atop of a trendline from last September Its is considerably outside the Keltner Channel on this daily chart. I have measured the pull back to the median on line - and you can see what it has done in the past. As long as the trendline hold - this could be a decent short. Breaks the trendline then presumably there is more upside. Ran the same exercise on Silver - its still a bit away from an upper trendline resistance.
COMEX:GC1!
by Maximilianned
GOLD NEXT WEEK #19Forecast: Addressing market sentiment regarding Gold backed ETF's, COMEX and BONDs etc. Daily chart analysis, looking at the Gold price from a broader perspective. Fib, 0.618 @ ~1848 is a potential target in May before a deeper correction. About Gold Next Week # A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold's price action on a weekly basis. I'll follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points. Topics: Market sentiment, Gold Shares / Gold EFT's, $DXY and US10/30yr Bonds and Yields System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some fundamentals. Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade. Best Regards OmarDjurhuus
OANDA:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn212178
GDX, Gold Futures & RoyaltiesWith inflation expectations high and the purchasing power of fiat currency under threat, the traditional store of value is gold. Retail traders have fallen fowl to the manipulation of the yellow metal with the likes of JP Morgan paying $920 million in settlements. New regulations could turn the tide which will allow the price and fundamentals to make sense once again. One way of getting around the inflationary pressures and the price volatility within the precious metals space, is to invest in a royalty company. Red Cloud Securities likes Vox Royalty, as does Crux Investor. From Red Cloud: Vox Royalty Corp. (TSXV:VOX, BUY, C$5.70 target, David A. Talbot) announced it has recognized preliminary record revenue of C$668k (or US$540k) in Q1/21, below our expectations of C$766k. There were no operating costs attached (cash operating margin was 100%) for the quarter as all revenue stemmed from royalties, not streams. Key highlights in the quarter included initial revenue from the Koolyanobbing royalty (uncapped at 2% of FOB sales value royalty) which had iron ore mined at the recently commissioned Altair Pit; increased production from the Hidden Secret deposit, covered by the Dry Creek royalty of Karora Resources (TSX:KRR, BUY, C$9.00 target, David A. Talbot); and rebounding diamond prices in the quarter associated with the Brauna royalty. We believe the company’s revenue should continue to rise going forward, at least through 2023, and expect seven paying royalties by year-end (up from just a single royalty one year ago). FY21 guidance is also forecasted for C$1.7M to C$2.5M, while we forecast about US$2.9M given our higher gold price assumption. With the combination of ongoing royalty acquisitions, and further increases in revenue and earnings as recently acquired royalties come online (read more), we expect the valuation gap between VOX and peers to diminish. VOX currently trades at a P/NAV of 0.7x peers at 1.2x. Underlying Fundamentals Inflation has superseded the global pandemic as the primary risk affecting every corner of the globe. The Federal Reserve insists that the inflationary pressures are transient, not pervasive, though the CPI / PCE data shows that CPI has jumped month-on-month at the fastest rate in several years. Commodity prices have run up to all-time highs as bottlenecks in supply chains create an imbalance to increasing demand on a year-on-year basis, but we have also seen a massive rise in inflationary pressures from the price of energy, particularly through the price of oil. But to the frustration of the retail investor, the price of gold has failed to go parabolic. The largest economies are looking to spend big on infrastructure, and technologies are pushing towards a global target of net-zero carbon emissions over the next few decades. Gold’s usage within safety-critical technologies and components, fuel cell technology and carbon capture industries are pushing the physical demand at an increased pace with the current industrial/technology markets equating to approximately 7% of total demand. In the long term, gold serves as a strong strategic component in many portfolios, not only for its diversification benefits but also for its returns. As a store of wealth, protection against diminishing US dollar purchasing power and as a very liquid Tier 1 asset, pension funds and institutional money managers tend to allocate 5%-10% of the portfolio to the precious metal. Consumer demand driven by the Indian and Chinese markets is a large proponent of gold jewellery, and the Jewellery markets equate to 34% of the total gold demand. As the overall economic outlook and Risk-On markets do well, these consumers purchase more gold. When times are uncertain, as we witnessed in 2020 during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the consumers reduce their purchases of jewellery, but the institutions step into the market to de-risk their portfolio, as Gold is a safe haven portfolio hedge, which decreases the price volatility during the uncertain times. The New Regulatory Framework Gold is a High-Quality Liquid Assets and as of 2019, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) reclassified physical gold as a Tier 1 asset. Gold was previously viewed as a risky asset, classified as a Tier 3 asset, which meant that gold could only be carried on banks’ balance sheet at 50% of the market value for reserve purposes. Since the Great Financial Crash, a lot has been done within the banking system to try and protect the broader economy from banks blowing up, as Lehman Brothers did. As part of the regulatory framework, banks have been working under Basel 111 rules and the time is coming for some of the rules to be enforced on the gold markets. These new regulations are scheduled to be introduced for European banks at the end of June 2021 and in the UK from 1 January 2022, affecting all London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) member banks. The risks to the bullion banks are that they trade in an OTC derivatives market, not holding much, if any, allocated gold. Allocated gold is when an investor is allocated gold and is the outright owner of a certain amount of physical bullion. There will be a requirement for banks holdings to meet a ratio limit between tangible assets and unallocated assets. The ratio is named Required Stable Funding and the crux of the matter is that if the bullion banks can no longer trade their paper and unallocated gold without holding physical allocated assets, the derivatives market could collapse. The 3 parts of the Basel 111 regulations that affect the paper gold markets are: • The Available Stable Funding factor (ASF) is applied to the sources of a bank’s funding on the liability side of its balance sheet. Depending on the liability (shareholders’ equity, customer deposits, interbank loans etc.) they are multiplied by a factor, from 100% for the most stable forms of funding, such as Tier 1 bank equity, to 0% for the least stable. Being on their balance sheets, unallocated gold owed to a bank’s deposit customers is to be given a Basel III ASF of 0%, which means it will not be permitted to be a source of funding for any balance sheet assets, which must therefore be funded from other liabilities. • The Required stable funding (RSF) is to be applied to a bank’s assets. Unallocated gold positions are to be valued at 85% of their market value. Note that allocated gold, being held in custody, is not on bank balance sheets (except where the bank actually owns physical gold in its own right) and is therefore not involved in the calculation. • The Net stable funding requirement (NSFR) is the ASF divided by the RSF and must be at least 100% at all times. The bullish scenario is that LBMA member banks have to find a lot of physical gold, increasing the demand and pushing up the price. The second bullish scenario for gold stackers is that with the removal of the paper gold positions that suppressed the gold price from inflating against the M2 money supply / global fiat currency expansion, the physical gold price could adjust towards higher prices in line with inflation. Technicals From the chart, we can deduce that the futures market is currently breaking higher and the miners are too. It is conceivable that as physical gold reaches $2k t/oz prices and beyond what is likely to happen in the derivatives markets, a lot of investors will pile in, making the current price of Vox Royalty look very cheap for such a fast-growth company.
AMEX:GLD
by TH_Analysis
GDX higher into June regulatory shake up for LBMAJune 2021: May see the beginning of the end of the London Bullion Market Association The London Bullion Market Association (now known simply as LBMA), established in 1987, is the international trade association representing the global Over The Counter (OTC) bullion market, and defines itself as "the global authority on precious metals". There will be a requirement for banks holdings to meet a ratio limit between tangible assets and unallocated assets. The ratio is named Required Stable Funding and the crux of the matter is that if the bullion banks can no longer trade their paper and unallocated gold without holding physical allocated assets, the derivatives market could collapse. The 3 parts of the Basel 111 regulations that affect the paper gold markets are: • The Available Stable Funding factor (ASF) is applied to the sources of a bank’s funding on the liability side of its balance sheet. Depending on the liability (shareholders’ equity, customer deposits, interbank loans etc.) they are multiplied by a factor, from 100% for the most stable forms of funding, such as Tier 1 bank equity, to 0% for the least stable. Being on their balance sheets, unallocated gold owed to a bank’s deposit customers is to be given a Basel III ASF of 0%, which means it will not be permitted to be a source of funding for any balance sheet assets, which must therefore be funded from other liabilities. • The Required stable funding (RSF) is to be applied to a bank’s assets. Unallocated gold positions are to be valued at 85% of their market value. Note that allocated gold, being held in custody, is not on bank balance sheets (except where the bank actually owns physical gold in its own right) and is therefore not involved in the calculation. • The Net stable funding requirement (NSFR) is the ASF divided by the RSF and must be at least 100% at all times.
AMEX:GDX
by TH_Analysis
2
GLD ready to run 170-180, finally?One of the most unusual things about the market over the past few months has been this "inflation fear" has not helped gold out. Typically people flee to hard assets like GLD to try to preserve value while their dollars lose relative buying power and bonds get slaughtered. arguably, bitcoin has been poaching money from the GLD trade of late. But things may be changing.... Along with my bearish BTC forecast ( ), this might even make more sense (perhaps some money rotates back from BTC to GLD after the COIN ipo?) However, finally technicals on GLD are starting to firm up! First, we have a very nice double bottom ('W') formation. Second, we have a descending wedge breakout. Third, the momentum indicators -- MACD, RSI are finally setting a northerly direction. The "easy" trade here seems to be a short term push to ~~ 170 (completion of the 'W' pattern (W bottom of 158 and top of 164 gives a 6 point upside projection to 170) (point 'A') while the more challenging one would be a push all the way to 180 (point 'B').
AMEX:GLDLong
by tacosaurus