GLD
Gold Back to All Time Highs1. Gold price is entering a narrow wedge with an 11 month resistance and a 2 year support. This support has repeatedly been tested over the last 2 years, and is more powerful than the medium term resistance level.
2. Price is currently at the top of the wedge. A break of resistance sets up a run to all time highs, with pull backs around 1915.00 and 1965.00. I expect price to move higher swiftly after a break of 1820.00.
$BABA $NOW $CVNA $GLD I OptionsSwing WatchlistBABA 1D I Testing the $205 area for the third time, could be seeing a triple bottom before the breakout from this falling wedge.
NOW 1D I We could be seeing a possible inverse H&S, Watching above the $567 level for continuation and possible retest of $600 before its ER.
GLD 1D I After breaking out from a bull flag back, we are seeing GLD retrace back and possibly making a double bottom near $165.
CVNA 1D I Showed strength last week and it is testing ATH levels. Watching a break above $325 with volume to see it continue run up into earnings.
Gold BreakoutLike the seasons, the markets appears to be attempting a shift. I made a recent post about long term treasury yields flipping bullish this month so far and now Gold appears to be doing the exact same thing as it has seen a beautiful breakout of a descending broadening wedge.
This is one of the more bullish patterns that exists, which means if this monthly candle shown on the chart confirms, big things could be in store for the precious metal.
Keep a close eye on this and the stock market as a whole as the year goes on. If big money starts aggressively piling their cash into hedges such as gold and bonds, that could mean bad things for many of the overvalued stocks out there.
This would especially mean bearish things for speculative tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Closing (IRA): GLD September 17th 150/July 23rd 166... long call diagonal for a 15.43/contract credit.
Comments: Money, taking, running on this (which was pretty much my original intention if I got the move). My cost basis was 13.88, (See Post Below), so my profit is the difference between what I closed it for (15.43) minus my cost basis (13.88) or 1.55 ($155)/contract. 1.55/13.88 = 11.2% ROC. Naturally, there could be continuation, but the most I can make out of this diagonal is the width of the spread (16.00), and I'm not sure I want to hang out another 17 days (the duration of the front month), since it's been flopping back and forth across that 166 mark for a bit (which is where I'd need price to finish above to realize max).
$AAPL $AMZN $NVAX $GLD I OptionsSwing WatchlistAMZN 1D I As AMZN earnings approach on 07/29, we are seeing AMZN about to retest ATH levels, expecting a breakout.
AAPL 1D I After the breakout from our triangle AAPL running non-stop to retest ATH levels, earnings on 07/27 will decide where it goes.
GLD 1D I After breaking out from a bull flag back, we are seeing GLD retrace back and possibly making a double bottom near $165.
NVAX 4H I Is breaking out from a downtrend with volume, we are expecting to see a run up into its earnings on 08/09.
Rolling (IRA): GLD July 16th 166 to July 23rd 166... for a .36/contract credit.
Comments: Here, just rolling the short option leg of my GLD diagonal (See Post Below) while price is right at the short call strike to bring in a little bit more credit, reduce cost basis further, and improve my break even a smidge. I originally filled this for 14.24 (See Post Below), so my cost basis is now 14.24 - .36 or 13.88 and my break even 150 (the long call strike) + 13.88 or 163.88. Max profit potential now the width of the spread (16) minus my cost basis of 13.88 or 2.12.
GDXJ Arc indicates low risk entry with 250% upside The fun side of the arc in the junior miners is currently playing out. At the moment, we reside at the edge of the arc, which presents a very low risk high reward entry. Completion of the arc would indicate a gain of around 250% + overshoot, in an 18 months timeframe.
Dollar, Gold and the Euro - where to next?
I just read an idea posted in Tradingview that this is the time to buy the EURO.
As well there is a lot of chatter about Gold being a gift at these levels.
This big move started this week. I believe its too soon to take a position in either one of them. This is not to say there won't be backtests as investors rush in. Looking at these daily charts gives you the perspective to see what's really going on.
So to be clear - the value of the US dollar (DXY) affects the EURO and GOLD - as the both are based on the relative strength of the DXY.
This move isn't over - clearly the breakout is happening fast, it maybe over this upcoming week. However, that does not mean it return immediately to previous levels. Expect some accumulation and distribution.
A higher US Dollar slows down: inflation, and debt ridden non-US companies with US Dollar denominated debt, who now have larger financial obligations.
One thing that is VERY interesting is clear that all three, DXY, GOLD, and the EURO are balancing inside their respective triangles, for a much bigger move. If you have the answer to that - its worth a fortune.
Why is this happening? The Federal Reserve has now signaled that there are at least two rate hikes forthcoming. While in Europe there is none of this talk, ergo higher rates - stronger currency.
Last year there were numerous well respected pundits claiming the dollar was about to soar (such as Keith McCullough of Hedgeye and Raoul Pal of Real Vision fame) Pal wrote on Twitter April 25th, 2020: 'You see the biggest problem the world faces is the dollar. We are in a viscous doom loop where slowing growth causes the dollar to rise' I can't believe he hasn't deleted this tweet.
When in fact the absolute opposite happened. So tune out the noise and watch the charts for the 'Real Vision' ;)
Expect the US Dollar to push through the what is an obvious trend line and bend it not break it approaching the round psychological number of 93. This is also close to 1.61 Fib at the top of the channel. The yellow triangle is where you might consider taking a long position in either the metals or pairs that verses the US dollar.
Levels are indentified where both GOLD and the EURO may fall to.
As a side note, the US Equites have rallied in part because of weakness in the US Dollar, which rallied at every drop in the dollar - they may have some catch up to do as the dollar is rising faster than SPX or NDX is dropping although the Russell and DOW seemed to be paying attention.
Another case againt goldThis chart shows that Gold is currently at or nearing a high in comparison to the US Real yields cycle, and not at the buying price that many think it is. A possible 24% correction is in order IMO.
Gold volatility in playThe sudden drop in Gold was expected (privately shared) within a circle. But what was surprising was the immense drop, spurred by the sudden spike in the USD.
Noted that there appears to be an inverse Head adn Shoulders pattern forming, and the neckline and extension is marked in purple.
Projection for down and a fast up to 2100 in mid-October 2021 (previously September).
Watch for the bounce!
GLD ForcastThis most likely course for gold to take over the next week. I believe GLD will fill the gap, test TL, and then be rejected and break down lower. Scalping up to TL, and then Short will be the positions i will be looking to take. I dont believe that Gold will be a safe bet in the event that we see a 5-10% correction in the overall market.
Opening (IRA): GLD September 17th 150/July 16th 166 LCV*Comments: Pre-market, this is showing bid 13.89/mid 14.05/ask 14.21. Going long call vertical on gold weakness here (and taking a little advantage of call side skew), buying the back month 90 and selling the front month at-the-money. A sixteen-wide for which I'll be paying no worse (at least currently) 14.21, so a max profit potential of the width of the diagonal minus what I paid or 1.79 with an ROC at max of 12.6%.
I'll have several opportunities to roll out the short call for additional cost basis reduction in the event that this weakness isn't over.
* -- Long call vertical.
Don't get PLAYED by Big Money: Inflation Trade Over?To trade the markets you have to be AWARE of the world and what is going on. We have to read the news every day but we should not always take what people are saying at face value. The news is never a leading indicator but it can at times be an INVERSE indicator. Don't get played by big money "talking their position" ...
In this video we look at examples of the last two years when the media hype was the OPPOSITE trade to take for...
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