Very Long Term Bullish Outlook for GoldThis is the GLD but should apply to any gold investment option as this plays out. Very long term cup and handle pattern on gold's chart. Weekly candlesticks here with the beginning of the cup starting back in 2011. Handle is forming right now. Might not see the lid tested until 2024, with the full trade playing out potentially as long as 2029. That said, some targets are met very quickly after the lid breakout, something like 2025 in this case. With the price of gold currently at ~$1780, a 54% increase from here would put it in the $2740 range.
GLD
GDX Lame Duck ?This week, the GDX did a lame effort to test the 55EMA, if you could even call that a test. Hence, the 55EMA failure was pretty much a lame effort too. This downward consolidation is growing lame and old, but it does appear to continue perhaps for a bit more as I do not yet see strength in the accumulation... having said that, when it comes, it is likely to be rather overwhelming.
For now, the same zone is pushed forward as a Buy Zone or Break Zone.
This is like fishing... all is lame until the big bagger comes, when it really comes, it comes with a hard fight!
Stay safe!
$Gold $GL on accumulation buying process or another sell off.. $Gold $GLD has been falling down heavily for couple of days..
buyers came back at 1780s, and 1800-1805 will be potential for selling .. let see if big time frame buyers will accumulate at 1780s and above, or this will be another more selling to test 1760.
My bias is Neutral to bearish, and I don't see any strong bullish reversal evidence yet. I need Buyers to show their aggressiveness above 1800s area
GDX possible bottoming out... or?Over the last couple of weeks/months, perhaps even since Aug 2020, GDX had been a tad challenging but also very intriguing.
Firstly, the number of fake outs by GDX is numerous over 2021.
Secondly, it is followed by failures for lower lows.
Third, an opportunity appears to be forming... it is almost time.
The weekly chart on the left failed the 55EMA yet again, and returned to close near the range low, on a solid candlestick. Technicals are bearish, as is price action.
The daily chart demonstrates how quick a breakdown it can have, but also appears to have bounced off a long term steady support. The candlesticks show a classic example of bearish outcome, and even a possible technical bounce in the coming week.
Technicals however are skewed slightly towards bearish.
Overall assessment is that we have a chance of GDX bottoming out, but also at risk of a breakdown, possibly.
Gold... an odd odesseyEver since August 2020, Gold has been acting odd. It has been ranging in a rather large range, and somewhat random IMHO.
The week ended strongly down with an engulfing candlestick that covered a six week range, ending at the lower end of the range with a lower low. This is a rather bearish indication IMHO.
The daily chart showed this near term bearish with a gap down and long bearish candles.
Oddly... appears that the adjusted downside target is 1700-1720; with a longer term upside back to 2000.
Just be wary... I am.
Bullish Gold?
Not really - Gold would have to breakout over $1900
Last week we touched 1847 - which held, and then price dropped to about 1830
Running into a trendline which was on my chart - this trendline held. See chart at bottom.
Firstly all the shorts lined up at 1845-ish got beat today. As price worked up to the next Fib level - exactly.
I realize that many will see this as bullish as Gold went up while the markets were selling off - to my mind it was just a stop run.
Still believe we'll head lower but right with Fed meeting tomorrow - all bets are off. Its possible that they will sweep the book - go higher and then pull the rug.
You'll need expert video game reflexes to stay ahead of the Gold in next day or so.
Rather than play the futures market - I've opted for safer puts in GLD - 169 Feb 18 expiry.
I had closed my previous position for a $10 winner but it did not hit target - but honestly I took it off because of the upcoming Fed Meeting.
$GLD Testing Resistance Again.$GLD testing resistance on the downward trend line. Volume was massive today. Looking for follow through and a close above that downward resistance line. Looks like support was established on the low of the bearish engulphing candle on the monthly chart. I'm thinking that the high of that candle will offer resistance if the downward wedge line is flipped. (Perhaps some minor resistance at $174 as well) The volume was pretty bullish IMO. Looked like the most buying in months. Can GLD get above the wedge line?
I took a position today on the close. I'm looking for a close above the wedge line to add. I'm using this weeks low as my stop.
What's everyone's thoughts, feelings and ideas?
$GLD Decision Time.Looks like an epic cup and handle in the making for $GLD. It's getting close to make or break time. I'd like to see a break above that long term downward trend line on the possible handle. The $DXY chart suggests that the dollar is headed for a secular down trend. That chart is also getting close to an inflection point IMO. Maybe the Gold bugs finally get their day in the sun? A break above that downward trend line would be bullish and a good entry point for those with a bullish bias.
GOLD / GLD heading higherWhen zooming out on the chart, we notice a large cup-n-handle formed primed for a breakout. Interesting timing of the handle formation right around the time that the Fed will be raising interest rates which will cause overall market weakness. On the shorter timeframes, the charts are indicating GLD and GOLD have formed Bull-Flag patterns, one of which is in process of a breakout.
Personally, I have invested half of my commons account long into GLD for the 2022 and 2023 gold rush to safety. As always, this is my trade plan and is not deemed financial advise or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or asset. The stock markets contain risk and you should make your own decision based upon your risk reward profile and tolerance.
Gold: Rain of FakeoutsHello traders!
As I always told you buying on bullish breakouts never works. The winning probability of buying on bullish breakouts is 1 out of 6 but if you sell on bullish breakouts then the winning probability is 5 out of 6 times.
The numbers are the failed breakouts counting.
The Gold has already failed 5 times and this time we might see a mega pump in Gold price. This breakout can push the Gold price to break an all-time High. Again when we see a breakout of the resistance at 2076 then we will see some natural retracement.
Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected
I hope you will not follow those who just draw a trendline and shows an arrow towards the upside because it's not the correct way and these posts hurt my brain LOL.
Gold, 5 Jan: New year, new active sequence.Gold has ranged in the 1720-1800 zone for the past 6 months. Price is now at the channel median, which is also the 61.8% retracement. Two things should catch our attention here: Gold is testing the 61.8% level again, which signals that it is not a reversal level but price wants to go higher. And secondly, it appears to hold the 21 day MA. If an asset begins to hold various moving averages (like the EMA ribbon) some traders call this an 'active sequence'.
Elliott:
We are able to count a (i)-(ii), i-ii wave. If correct, we should see an expansion of momentum into wave 3 of 3.
Geometry:
Price bounced at the lower boundary of the channel and currently stalls at the median.
Oscillators:
The MFI is >50 and points upwards. Stochastic is overbought and due to reverse.
Correlations:
The DXY is at a multi-month resistance and potentially breaking down, which would be positive for Gold.
How to trade it:
If Gold continues hold and stay above the 21 day MA, we can use the active sequence to build further long exposure and speculate on an impulse move to the upside, which would align well with the Elliott count. The Stochastic tells us that another re-test of the 21 day MA is possible. A break of the MA would invalidate the idea.
Golds decision is here Gold will most likely rally to the 1855-1860 area before having a significant pullback. That area marks the major trendline that has marked the tops of this consolidation that has lasted close to 18 months. The bullish case would be marked by a touch of the trendline , a correction, then a decisive break and rally. The length of the consolidation will lead to a significant move that would target the all time highs and possibly much higher. A fail at the trend line will send gold plummeting to my lower support levels at 1669 then 1551. The next few weeks will be interesting! Safe trading.
GLD, can it see the $130s or lower? I think so.If you zoom out on $GLD, we seem to be trading within a large channel. Price action looks very similar to how it did in 2012 before falling off a cliff.
While everyone has turned bullish on GLD again, citing inflation as a reason for it to be a safe haven, the chart tells a different story. There seems to be strong resistance right above where we are and lots of room to fall lower from here.
Based on the chart, I think over the next 2-3 years, we'll see the price fall to the $131 level in orange, if not lower. I could see price going all the way down to the $116-120 level at the bottom of the channel before bouncing. I marked off buy areas in orange and green as I think it'd start to make sense to scaling into those regions should price get there.
If price falls below $146, that would be the signal that this move is likely to play out. Let's see how this longer term projection plays out.
Silvers bearish divergences I see bearish divergences building on the the hourly chart of silver as it moves its way far up into the apex of the rising wedge. This leads me to believe this move up is exhausted, barring any news that will be a catalyst for further upside. The MACD shows bearish divergence and so does the RSI. The pullback will be a very key determinant in regards to silvers low. The 3 key levels marked by horizontal supports on the chart will produce some bullish signals if they hold. Roughly $22.18 and $22.07 will act as a higher low if one of them decides to hold. The last line marking the recent low of silver as of late. A move towards that line will be a little worrisome since it was tested twice already. I do not see a convincing rally as of late , not to mentions golds struggle to stay above 1800. A break of $1860 gold will for sure signal another leg up in metals is about to happen. My views do not mean I believe that silver is about to crash, although that may be an actual scenario. Keep an open mind and happy trading.
Gold, 20 Dec. Forever $1800.Gold has been ranging for over a year around 1800, with deviations of +/-7%. Today here we are, back at 1800.
Wyckoff:
The range gives us a chance to do a Wyckoff analysis. It is possible to interpret the structure as a re-accumulation with a spring and two tests afterwards. We need to see the LPS and SOS phases next to confirm this interpretation.
Elliott:
We are able to count (i) - (ii) in blue and sub-wave i - ii (in green). If correct, we should expect a wave iii of (iii) that would bring Gold out of the re-accumulation pattern. Wave ii has retraced 78.6%.
Geometry:
The inside pitchfork provides us with diagonals that are well-respected by price. A break of 1878 would confirm bullishness.
How I trade it:
Most importantly, Gold has made a higher high, and a higher low, causing the MACD to crossover on the daily. We can now look for an active sequence that holds moving averages. If the wave iii of (iii) assumption is correct, we will see a swift move to the upside. The idea is to gradually build long exposure here, and exit the positions if price falls below 1770.
Would you long this?Different POV in BTC.
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
I'm still bullish on BTC.