SPOT Gold, GDXJ as a predictor for BDR.AXSeems to be good correlation between 1/(XAUUSD/10-GDXJ) and the morning price action on BDR on the ASX. During the day spot gold movement continues to influence price movements on BDR.
GDXJ
Jnug to Gold Oct 27thThis just in!! If true, be careful tomorrow!!
King World News just reported that an associate of George Soros leaked info that the US GDP data tomorrow is going to be slightly better than the forecast. The forecast is for GDP to have risen up to an astounding 2.5% from 1.4%. I think that would be a huge jump. But KWN reported that it would come in at a manufactured 2.6%. WHY!? Because they want a great number before the election to help Hilary Clinton win. I am sure it is both sides that want this.
A Number that big would tank gold until the November non rate hike at the very least. So I drew a price target with a red arrow of where I think it could go if the report is correct. Otherwise, a miss would give us a short term pop. Either way, be ready! The report is set to come out at 5:30 AM.
Gold in bull pennant since retest of low, should break higherI expect a move back to top of triangle. 1hr and 4hr stochastics and rsi support a move higher. With a break of 1277.264, the bounce high after the major drop from 1308, we should be clear to 1292 in short order.
Invalidate and go short if trendline of triangle is broken and confirmed with consecutive hourly closes below trendline.
Gold forming cup & handle on daily bars, headed for 1293Cup and handle formation on daily bars. Neckline is at 1275. On a breakout above this level, target is same distance as bottom of cup to top right of cup, so $18. That would give us a target of 1293.
Invalidate if handle retraces more than 2/3 of cup depth, so below 1256.
Jnug to Gold Mid October 20161 Day Chart
Are we about to start wave 5? I say yes and I am excited for it.
If wave 5 is the same or bigger (as I have heard some analysts say for commodities) than wave 3, then I have worked out two possible price targets to reach probably Tuesday or Wednesday. A 100% Fib gain of wave 3 is approx. $16.58 which is coincidently right at about a resistance line, and near a down trend line (marked with the tan oval). My best case scenario price target is a measured move of the potential cup and handle pattern that appears to have been formed (refer to chart). The next move up (which is also wave 5) is supposed to be similar to the depth of the cup to the brim. So I drew a pink vertical line to measure the depth and then move it up. The approx. price target from that measurement is $18.36 (2nd tan oval). Oh and by the way….the 2nd oval happens to be the approx. level that the 50 DMA will be by Tuesday or Wednesday. Reversion to the mean??? Lets also not forget that the upper BBands are also descending fast with the 50DMA. HMMMMM!
Cot report shows a reduction even though the price went up for the most part. This suggest strength.
Volume dried up during the wave 4 consolidation. So I am looking for a Volume/price push early next week.
Continued
junior miners to continue break higher to 43Large pennant formation over last few days. Cup and handle forming inside of ascending triangle. If can get above 41.80, should move towards yesterday resistance around 42.15, then break out to 43
invalidate if break traingle on 1hr close.
Long Gold Miners1) Divergence in the 4hr RSI and MACD crossing over.
2) Price has touched the bottom of the downward trendline on Oct 06.
3) Support at 38.2% Fibo of the rally from Jan 2016 to Aug 2016
4) May see another downleg to sub 37 due to spiking USD but risk/reward is good for a bounce to 42
Risk/reward ratio is 3:1
GDX - Bull Market Soon to ResumeWe are nearing a bottom in the gold miners in the form of a wave 2 of the full wave 1 move up from the January low. The recent price movement on Friday gave us the setup for the final leg down as a v of C which can take the shape of a 5-wave impulsive move down or an ending diagonal.
The bottom should be struck between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the larger impulsive wave 1 high of 31.79, aiming for the 22-20 range. Once the correction is complete, we should then be prepared for the larger degree wave 3 move upwards that will take the GDX to at least 50.
GDXJ - Ending Diagonal In ProcessI'm seeing wave C possibly shaping up as an ending diagonal to complete wave 2 of the larger degree correction.
If the price movement follows the blue count on the chart, we should be going down in 3 waves a-b-c to form a bottom around the 50% retracement of the larger impulsive wave 1 high of 52.50, potentially going a bit lower.
This would be an excellent opportunity to catch the following impulsive wave 3 up which will very likely take the GDXJ all the way up to 100 and above.
HMY - Correction Nearing an EndHarmony Gold is following the correction seen across the gold miners. I see two similar counts playing out over the next few weeks:
Blue count: the whole wave C is an ending diagonal and we are currently in wave iv of the final move down.
Red count: an alternative count would see us fall to lower lows beginning of next week to complete wave iii of C and then make one last bounce upwards before the final leg down.
Either count would have HMY bottom within a month or so and potentially take us down to the 2.60-2.40 range.
jnug to gold4 hours chart
Lets start with what I got right. Non-farm payrolls was a miss and unemployment ticked up to 5% and as a result of this poor data, yes we gapped up at the open. I was saying between $1 and 1.50 and it was $1.21. But then down she went. So what went wrong? Yes its manipulation. Just about any other time of the year when we get numbers like this, this should have skyrocketed. Not a damn thing we can do about it except wait it out and look ahead. I looked up what happened on June 3rd to create such a huge run in Gold and Jnug. It was bad non-farm job numbers. And look at how it ran.
So I am looking ahead to Monday of course. But mainly because I am kind of curious and excited to see what China does after having to watch gold get artificially pushed down soooo much. Yes I still think this goes up but I don’t want to get anyone’s hopes up too much, So I will not try to call a top. I still think we are in the black broken line channel for now. Hopefully we trade back to the top of it before turning back down. If we get close to that, I for one am selling Jnug and buying Dust.
If you are able to check out the volume, you will see that volume was huge. This is a very good sign. I feel like with a suppressed price movement and a huge volume spike, that the catapult has been pulled back as far as it can go, all we need is someone to release the pin. Maybe China.
So as you can see from my chart, I am thinking maybe 1 ½ to 2 weeks more for Jnug before it turns down again. Left translated means this could go down lower, but I am not sure it is ready to break that neck line, if in fact this is going to be a H&S pattern. SO if it does go lower, then the H&S if probably off the table.
If anyone has any info that could be helpful then please feel free to add it. I am curious to hear what that “chartfreak” guy has to say from here on out.
Jnug to Gold2 hours chart
As my data changes, I will update posts and charts as early as possible.
Is anyone not confident that we go up?
I believe we had our bottom today and a nice reversal. Gold should follow soon. I believe that we are going to get some economic data in our favor either tomorrow, but most likely Friday, that will launch this thing. I am looking at reaching $16 by Friday. That would affectively close that gap that was made yesterday and put us back into the blue wedge. It also looks like we may stay inside the blue wedge for the next 2 - 3 weeks until we break down hard again. But I digress. Back to the short term. I believe that the economic data will be bad enough to propel Jnug and gold up. That momentum will carry us through to the upside until at least Wednesday morning for the JOLTS reports. SO I have a target of approximately $21.50ish for a top by mid next week. So for those of us that bought Jnug today or yesterday, you could have a 100% gainer on your hands. Not bad. A gift set up by our big money bank robbers.
When we do break down from that wedge, I cannot begin to predict where it might bottom. I have a hard time believing that we make a new deeper bottom, but then again, if we are left translated as it appears we will be, then that is possible. Too early to tell. However, the blue trading channel appears to be our course for October into November. If anything changes then I will update.
Then if the head and shoulders pattern is in fact going to play out, then it makes sense that we turn sideway for mid November and early December to complete the shoulder. We will see. If we are going to create a H&S pattern then it makes sense that we do not break the neckline which we came very close to hitting today. So late October early November could bounce off that neckline instead of the channel bottom. Just something to think about and be prepared for.
Hope this helps.
jnug to goldI wasn't going to post another chart until Friday but after reading my update, it seems easier to follow along with what I am saying with the updated chart as well. Ignore the Pink arrows and boxes, that's just for me to keep an eye on.
well price dipped below the major trendline today, signaling that sometime in the not too distant future it will drop below it. But in the meantime, I believe that today was the bottom and reversal day. Price is climbing in After Hours especially. So I am looking for $18.30 range for tomorrow and then $20 range for Friday. I am hoping that momentum will continue until next Tuesday to the top of the wedge for that day which should be approximately 22.40ish to $22.52, (where I will sell no later than Tuesday so my funds will be settled for the Friday Oct 7th report) before dropping back down to $20 range. (however, just like on the 12th -13th, it doesnt have to continue, and could drop a little bit). Maybe if I am lucky, price will push just past the upper trendline (maybe 22.60's) to give the same signal that todays brief push below the trendlind did. I am actually crossing my fingers that after Tuesday, Price drops down to the blue trendline again. If price drops to that trendline, I will buy Jnug at that point, and rely on the report to be negative, (good for Gold), and shoot up to the top of the broader wedge before settling for the day (7th) around $22 to $22.50 range. After that, I think the blue arrows tell the tale for Jnug price movement, hoping for price to reach $26+ by the 12th or 13th before dropping to the next price target for that Friday.
Obviously if any of my price targets change I will adjust it ahead of time. The further out we go, the less accurate they are. AS you can see, the price movements are much broader in November through March 2017. As time passes I will update the charts with my belief of price movements for that week.
Gold forming a falling wedgeSupport Level 1316, next horizontal support 1308. Resistance 1338. Gold will need a catalyst to move it up. Possibly OCT 1 china is admitted into the IMF SDR basket. China entry could weaken the dollar. Next catalyst is a no hike for December. I can see gold reaching 1400 by the end of Dec if we get no hike at all this year.
jnug to goldWell the black trend line did not hold like I thought it would. Price also briefly dipped below the blue trend line. That is usually a signal that it will be broken in the near future. So it appears that jnug will continue down tomorrow.
The two areas that it could bounce off of are $17.50 range and if that is broken then $16.67 range. But that looks to be about it if it gets that far. a little bit bummed. I did buy jnug at $18.41 and I will hold.
SO I shifted my cycle bottom line to the 27th . I truly believe that this will mark the bottom for this cycle. Kind of tough to try to time the market and predict the future. Cant always be totally correct. But if price still makes it to my price target area by Friday, then I will be happy.
Also as you can see there was a change to my arrows and a slight adjustment to the pick boxes for the next two weeks. I try the best I can to guess price path for the week. Tuesday is the cut off for the COT report and Big money knows that. So that's why I think tomorrow, if jnug continues to go down, will by the final day this week before it turns around.
Jnug to goldSO, While researching DUST, I discovered a possible conflict for Jnug price targets.
There is possibly another path, represented with the pick arrows and boxes. So here is my trading plan (subject to change as we proceed).
I currently hold DUST, which I bought this morning (9/22) when I saw JNUG get rejected from the upper wedge. I plan on selling DUST, using my Jnug chart as my guide. So sell DUST when Jnug fills the gap down at $18.35ish and then Immediately buy Jnug.
The possible conflict occurs around Oct 5. The question is will Jnug bounce and go higher or will it continue to drop to the pink box. I'm kind of thinking it will drop, which would be more in line with a cycle end. Since I cant be comfortably sure, here is my plan with Jnug at that point (ist week of October)....
If Jnug is touches the top of the wedge around the 3rd or 4th, then sell Jnug and simply wait and see which way it goes. If it drops to the pick box on 10/7 then I would buy Jnug for the short term left translated pop.
If it goes higher then I would wait a little bit longer to see if it hits the upper blue line and then buy DUST.
By the way, if it does drop to that pink box, then I would be considering that to represent the end of the cycle and beginning of the next left translated move. At that point I would adjust the fuchsia lines.
Gold Needs to break 1340 or its back downI see a dec no rate hike moving gold to 1380 to 1400, but looks like a consolidation might take place. Also dollar is gaining strenght
HUI - Daily (GDX, GDXJ)Miners have been a tough trade lately, especially for bulls like me that had become accustomed to shallow retraces. I'm treating this bounce as a corrective rally unless an impulsive move takes out HUI 286.05 strongly. Targets for yellow waves (3) through (5) will have to wait for confirmed completion of wave (2). White wave 3 of (3) could be expected to reach 463, hold 332 in wave 4 of (3), then stretch to at least 645.75.
Remember, the placement of labels are meant to suggest price targets, not timing.
Similar patterns are possible on the GDX and GDXJ ETFs as well as a large number of individual mining stocks.
Jnug to goldSo I was bummed that gold took off after Japans non move. Oh well, Im still buying Jnug for the short ride up.
Just a brief update today. I have slightly moved my arrows (price movement). I also included the Fuschia colored and black vertical lines to mark DCL approx. dates and the Black vertical line are what I believe is ICL bottoms.
My Idea is that jnug is on its own cycle, similar to gold but not following it exactly. Just look at the comparison for price movement in August with Jnug vs spot gold. Interesting at the very least. It appears that Jnug completed its own ICL bottom. The ICL seem to be 4 - 5 1/2 month long. The shorter DCL seem to be 4 - 5 weeks. So I am simply toying with this idea.
I do not believe we will get past $23.40 range in the next couple days. That will be our top and then more chop, just like the chart shows. And even though it is way far out, I still think Jnug bottoms on Feb 1, the day I think the Fed raises rates. Then we take off to incredible and very lofty gains.
Jnug to Gold updatewell, well, well...Jnug closed at $17.35! Right smack dab near my price target area of around ($17.50). And the week before it closed almost perfectly in the price target as well. So just to update, I think that Jnug will bottom around the $16.20 on Moday or Tuesday. Then with no rate hike, we will get a small run for a couple to fours days. I am looking at least to $26.50. Ill be watching closely at that level to see if it breaks through that wedge line to the $29+ range, but I doubt it. Next price target for 9/23 is around $21.50
Note: AS we progress, the other grey box price target areas may adjust like they have in this new chart
Jnug as a guide to Gold price movmentSince my spot gold chart is too cluttered to post, I thought this JNUG chart may be a better guide.
I use mostly Cycle analysis, and to a lesser degree .... Technical Analysis for price guidance, Max Pain Expiration, Cot report Tuesday cutoff, and typical seasonal movements. Oh and lets not forget the dependency on the data on the economic calendar as well. As of right now I am neither bullish nor bearish due to a couple factors. We are in and have been trading in a wedge. One that is starting to look like we wont get out of until the 3rd week of October. Only to trade in a larger wedge. note(I almost hope Gold does drop to a double bottom or close to it so I can trade it all the way down and then all the way up again).
If we don't break higher (Past Approx 1375 -80 range) by the end of September, then this is going down hard.
The shaded square boxes are the Max Pain price targets. Obviously the further out they go, the less reliable they are. They may change week to week. But still fun to note. Trying to keep an open mind.
I am looking for the current cycle to bottom in mid October and to be left translated. The next daily cycle, also left translated , should bottom in late November, and the final daily cycle for the year should peak at 26.48 range before heading down.
Lastly, the fact that, as of right now, the Max Pain price target in January is very, very low, suggests to me that the Fed will not raise rates until the January 31st meeting. After that, then Gold and Jnug should fly.
XAUUSD, JNUG, NUGT, DUST, GOLD, GDX, GDXJ, JDST
