Closing (Margin): GDXJ October 21st 26/27.5 Short Strangle... for a 3.16 debit.
Comments: Closing here at 21 days. Total credits collected of 2.06; closing out here for 3.16 results in a 1.10 ($110) loss.
GDXJ
Rolled (Margin): GDXJ October 21st 34 Short Call to 27.5... for an .83 credit.
Comments: Delta balancing. Total credits collected of 2.06. Resulting delta/theta 6.58/5.80 (as of Monday's close).
Too slowMove is not impulsive at all. But it will continue up.
I expect it could only fill the gap at 40$ and then "finito".
Time is mostly the same: second half of September.
Gold: about 1910$ (futures)
After this, another drop. and probably visit the previous lows, or could even go lower.
Slow Show (The National)
www.youtube.com
Gold to Resume Falling as Prices Challenge Pennant SupportGold looks ready to make another leg lower as prices challenge pennant support. A drop near the psychologically-important 1,600 level is in the cards.
The Anatomy of a Gold Bull Market"Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of financial markets."
-John C. Bogle
The gold price has some serious catching up to do, and will likely start the next leg higher as soon as the Fed is forced to pause its rate hikes. Gold miners will outperform in this scenario...
The Anatomy of a Gold Bull MarketGold is set to outperform equities as soon as the Fed pauses rate hikes in the coming months. Now is the time to back up the truck on physical gold and the miners and enjoy a multi-year run...
XAUAUD - Reversal within a larger Ascending broadening wedge. XAUAUD - Bullish reversal within a larger Ascending broadening wedge.
GDXJ: Shilly-shally…GDXJ is still hesitant to finally complete wave ii in magenta and is turning downwards again. As it can, of course, use the whole magenta colored zone between $37.26 and $24.77 to finish the overarching downwards movement, we give the ETF some more time to get its work done. However, as soon as wave ii in magenta is through, GDXJ should veer to the north, crossing the resistance at $36.58 and heading for the next at $51.92 from there. A 40% chance remains, though, that GDXJ could break through the magenta colored zone and drop below the support at $19.52, thus triggering further descent.
First Majestic Silver AG - Rare OpportunityFirst Majestic silver along with the rest of the mining stocks have been pummeled the last few weeks.. or months..er I mean years. It is my strong opinion that a rare opportunity has opened up in many of these stocks - historical.
These monthly candles really help depict the birds eye view necessary to spot the larger patterns and trend. AG has been forming a large wedge for many years and broke out a few years ago.. Price is now on the launchpad. It might be a slow rocket getting off the ground but it has a tremendous amount of fuel.
Newmont breaking out of the box and going lowerThe Bollinger Bands contracting inside the Keltner channel predicts an explosive move ahead that will last at least 8 days. Combine that with Newmont's Price Action creating a box which looks like it's breaking through. I would not be surprised if there was a retrace to the top of the box later today if action is aggressive, or Monday morning - then it's Sayonara Sucka.
I've already detailed all the reasons why in my gold/dxy threads why miners will experience more pain ahead. I'm selling OTM calls and buying ITM puts with the credit here. If it goes up, it's a squash - if it goes down, excellent revenue to average in at a lower price until miners turn around.
Opening (Margin): GDXJ October 21st 26/34 Short Strangle... for a 1.23 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 53/49. 1.23 credit on buying power of 2.98. 41.3% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 20.6% at 50% max.
The Death of the Shorts.New cycle up is here in the sector.
Major important bottom and miners will again move up for weeks.
Acording to what i expect also for gold.
A top will be around 45$ filling the gap there at the end of August, but could be extended in time to mid september also.
So don´t short or you´ll find your Death in Las Vegas, gamblers...
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Weak Miners Ride the tide of Over Bullishness?2 main scenarios I can see playing out in GDXJ. I Got in jdst a tad early but I feel it will play out in time. Maybe You can time it better. Good luck
monitoring 2hr bull flag set up notice the 2 previous bearish cypher patterns. The 1st pattern of the (X) leg appears to be acting as support. I'm looking for gold to get above the 2nd bearish cypher pattern, and Test its X leg for support. If it hold then Im looking for gold to breakout again above $1800 and retest $1840-$1850 area
The AD earlier this morning showed me an ascending triangle to $1840 area. I'm monitoring and do a position
Gold might be on the way towards $3500I believe so. That's why the recent dip in gold price and miners is to shake out the weak hands. I think gold is heading for 100% run.
GDXJ: Excellent!GDXJ is still acting squarely in accordance with our expectations and has advanced into the magenta zone between $37.26 and $24.77, where it should soon finish wave ii in magenta. Afterwards, GDXJ should turn upwards, crossing $36.58 and heading for the resistance at $51.92. There remains a 30% chance, though, that the ETF could fall through the magenta zone and below the support at $19.52, thus activating further descent.
GDX GOLD MINER may bottom@24 or 21 zone to retest channel.GDX seems to be doing a BIG UPCHANNEL started from the 2016 low & retested at the 2018 low. If this lower channel is to be retested, GDX may bottom at the 24 green zone. This is the most probable since this is also the 2016 VWAP & the FIB 0.618 retracement from 2016 low.
However, if you look at the VOLUME PROFILE, then GDX may fall more to the 21 zone to create a divergence, ending wave 1 of wave III.
BULLISH longterm: Gold & gold miners will be a good hedge during rising inflation or recession. Every portfolio should have this insurance policy & some other defensives like XLV health, XLP staples & XLU utilities. TLT bonds will also rise during recession while US10Y rates go down in a deflationary environment. GDX may be just in the early stages of the longest wave III rally & has a long way to go.
GDXJ Junior miners fell a lot more so I think percentage wise it will have to rise more just like today. Miners tend to be the leading indicator for GOLD. Gold may fall more to the 1670 to 1760 zone. Gold recovering 1800 will be very bullish while GDX reclaiming 30.37 wave 1 top & previous neckline pivot will also be bullish.
Not trading advice.
Parabolic Setup on the Mining JuniorsThis is a very asymmetric trade setup with nearly blue skies to 100 if it can catch some momentum in the coming sessions.
We also have a nice little fractal that shows us the path upward, should we break 49.
I would not front-run this one and would wait for 50+ daily close before a serious entry. With this level of confirmation in pocket, I'll be taking a rather aggressive stance.
Its a clear magnet-move to 100 - if for no other reason than it being one of the only decent plays available.
=PigMagnet
AMEX:GDXJ
TVC:GOLD
TVC:SILVER
MCX:GOLD1!
MCX:SILVER1!
ASX:GOLD
AMEX:GDX
NYSE:GOLD
CollapseSoon will begin the final leg down in the sector, that could take GDXJ to 23 $ level.
After that we have to see.
At some point this year, could see a multiyear bottom in miners.
That will mean that I thnik they will begin to outperform gold.
So, in cycles up, they will rise huge.
And in cycles down, the will fall, but not making lower lows. But that is still to be seen. Is something that at some point it should begin to happen
Even if gold trends lower, making lower lows, miners could not do so.
For those who don't now Clem Snide, here is a link with his music
The song: collapse
www.youtube.com
This is not the end of love (with gold)
GDXJ sharp move downI didn´t expect such weakness in the previous idea.
The move is being very intense, and it can continue in the same way
Before de month ends, GDXJ about 40,5$.
Then, there could be a move up to the 45$ before another push down to the 32$.
And all this could happen during the month of May.
Caution
GDXJ: Testing the watersAfter jumping down from its last high at the lower edge of the blue zone between $51.27 and $62.63, GDXJ has fallen below the mark at $36.58 to test the waters of the magenta zone between $37.26 and $24.77. We expect it to gather more downward pressure to advance deeper into the magenta zone, where it should finish wave ii in magenta. Then, the ETF should turn around and climb back above $36.58. From there, it should continue the ascent towards the resistance at $51.92. However, there is a 30% chance that GDXJ could break through the magenta zone and subsequently drop below the support at $19.52 instead.
$GDXJ to fall from here? $35 first, $20s next?GDXJ looks to be rejecting at resistance here which could setup a large move lower. I know everyone wants to be bullish gold, but both commodities and equities are starting to look weak here.
I think we're about to see a false breakout of the falling wedge and a break back below it down to $35 as the first target, and potentially the $20 range after that.
Green lines mark support levels. Let's see what happens over the coming weeks/months.
Massive Upside W/ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (USA: $GDXJ)! 🏆VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ®) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the MVIS®Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR), which is intended to track the overall performance of small-capitalization companies that are involved primarily in the mining for gold and/or silver.
