SILVER 50DMA cross up through 100DMA50DMA crossing up through 100DMA. First time in almost exactly 1 year. Angle of attack is pretty steep. I would love for this to mean a repeat of the 2016 PM/Miners story.
GDXJ
XAUUSD - Short IdeaIt seems if the channel line breaks 1234 -only support is 1198-1199 on daily.
Trend seems like it's not in favour of Gold either.
I would recommend waiting for a clean break with volume to confirm then short.
#Gold Report by MacroView Research 2.26.17Gold had another solid week with futures moving higher by nearly 2.5 percent. Bond yields in the U.S. closed lower as the curve continues to flatten post-Fed hike. The 10-year yield is down 12.97 percent from cycle highs, while the 30-year yield is down 8.49 percent. We did warn (back in September) that another Fed rate hike would be ultimately dovish.
MacroView continues to believe that the Fed will unlikely be able to deliver their foretasted number of rate hikes for 2017.
Real yields continue to drive gold prices higher, currently at -10 bps. Many fail to communicate (either out of ignorance or moral hazard) that gold does not move on the rate of change on nominal yield but on real yields: nominal minus the rate of inflation.
The fact of the matter is that if the Fed allows inflation to run hot but nominal yields continue to move sideways, or lower, gold is going to continue to outperform. Gold and U.S. real yields have a strong negative correlation of .93.
Since the Fed hiked last December, real yields have fallen over 40 bps and currently only 21 bps higher then when President Trump was elected.
Price action for gold is a bit overextended near-term with a 1D z-score of 1.76. Expect prices to pullback and consolidate gains. The U.S. dollar should remain range bound between 100.3 and 101.70. Nominal rate may move higher momentarily as pricing z-score on the 2-year yield hit -2. Longer-term price action remains healthy with a z-score of 1.03.
Key Weekly S/R Levels
S1: $$1,249
S2: $1,222
R1: $1,281
R2: $1,307
Potential deep crab pattern + major resistance area. If the deep crab pattern is completed I might enter a short position with a PT to previous structure high (1246.6). Regardless of the deep crab pattern, I'm expecting gold to reach the red rectangle. That area is ideal for a short position. There are too many signals pointing to that area (2 different types of harmonic swing (AB=CD patterns), 127.2% ext of 1124.3 - 1246.6, 161.8% ext of 1124.3 - 1220.1, and the 61.8% retracement of the major trend (1377.5 - 1124.3). That red rectangle is a congestion area and hence a potential kill zone. You could enter aggressively or wait for a retest. PTs are not defined yet, but I will wait to see if my prediction is correct in order to look for PTs.
Jnug to Gold Feb 24thSO I bet many people were wondering WTF is up with the price of JNUG if gold broke out the last two days. Well the answer is that the cycle for miners is coming to an end and there is usually a little pullback during the bullish times and a huge drop during the bearish times. *(look at miners from 11/14 to 12/08 and see what the price action did compared to spot gold which was tanking hard during that period. Miners does not always follow gold perfectly. But when it does correspond, we can get big moves like we had over the last two months) Since we are currently finishing a bullish impulse then we should continue to drop into next week. How much is the question. I put an extension on the 100DMA and 50 DMA to show where they should cross. I am hoping that price can drop to that location where they cross but at least think we could close that last gap just above it. The light green area is where I plan on selling my JDST and buying JNUG. There is always a pop in Jnug when the cycle starts. Just look at price when the cycle start on 1/27 and then again on 12/20. Evan during bearish times like on 11/14 we had a little pop. So I hoping for JNUG to fall to $8.75 range with an expected pop to $11.30. If price does not break through again then it appears it could chop sideways for a while.
The black triangles below are approximate zones where I am predicting without much certainty, that spot gold DCL should occur. I am not totally sold that we completed a DCL for spot gold yet and it may start to drop down to a decent 50% retracement or 50DMA.
I also have changed my spot gold opinion as of 2 days ago since gold has now finally broken through the zone I talked about. I will post the gold chart after this. So I am short miners for at least into next week.
XAUUSD: Daily uptrend updateGold is rallying after breaking out of the strongest local resistance level (red box). There is a new uptrend continuation signal that got triggered yesterday, and I reentered longs on the breakout. Currently in profit, and looking to trail stops and add if viable.
Keep an eye on the developments from here onwards, it becomes extremely interesting the higher we go. If you own physical gold, do pay attention now, since we approach a huge 'make or break' zone in the long term charts. The level outlined by the orange line here represents the strongest and most significant resistance in Gold, which if breached could signal a resumption of the long term advance in the yellow metal.
See related ideas for more information.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Hourly Gold FibFansFrom the looks of it, the next day or two will be very important for Gold. If we break the 2016 down line, the next major point of resistance according to these fibfans will not be until about 1280.
Gold - A 10-23 Day PredictionWhat will happen at the .25 fib? Will we confirm the new Bull Market? I'm not sure but i'm confident we will find out. If I were to take a guess, I would say up. Of course, my chart skills are still fresh and I most likely have it all wrong.
JNUG Long at 11.56 to 14.30My current JNUG trade.
*I am a rookie so trade with me at your own peril!*
Jnug to Gold - Im not long yetI'll keep this short and sweet. Until spot gold break through that large green area that I put on this Spot gold chart, then it is still possible that we are in wave 4 and not in the start of the 2017 bull run. However, I am not so sure how low it could go being so so late in the cycle. I put up the possibility of a head and shoulders pattern that could develop. Also keep in mind that the Yen has also broken out of it downtrending channel last week. and it ;looks like it pushed up into a minor wave 1. So this gold push is consistant with a minor wave 2 for the Yen. I will post this chart and Jnug.
If gold breaks above that green area then I will change my outlook to very bullish.
Gap fill on JNUG, TP 17-18.5The similarities to the move from last year is pretty recognizable. We consolidated around 7-8 and have moved up to 12. This year is a little higher than last year, but I see us in wave (3) of (5). Wave 5 should take us back to 17-18.5, filling the gap at 16.52 (highlighted by red arrow).
I hesitate to say it will be exactly like last year, but so far, the price action in the same ranges has behaved similarly, so go with it until proven otherwise.
Invalidate this idea if daily close below (2) (10.65)
Gold retrace, or continues or breakouts. Tonight is big.
The chart is self explanatory,
I have started taking out my long positions and accumulating shorts.
Though the bull run remains strong and just because of one candle down, it does not signal a crash.
TBH, there are a lot of reasons for gold to run hot in the past month, to me it was USD weakness that attracted the first wave of speculative buying and then shorts to cover.
This is a channel dating back to the summer. If it breaks upward I will take out my shorts.
The issue is that shorts need a strong dollar.
That has been stiffled by PBoC selling at night (PM me for details)
HP
Gold headed back to bull channel from 2016Clear break of 1220 and the bull flag from the bottom at 112x.
I think we are in wave 3 of 5 after the ABC correction and will have a symmetrical recovery back into the bull channel from 2016. In bigger picture I think we are in wave (iii) of (v) which will eventually take us 14xx+
First TP is around 1246 which is .75 quarter Fib from recent highs, and also the .5 Fib from the 2016 highs (not shown here).
Ultimate TP around 132x
Invalidate this idea if move back below 1195.
JNUG/NUGT ratio inverse h&s, neckline .9I expect this ihs pattern to fill out over the next few days. Break higher to 1+ I think could bring 50%-100% gains in JNUG as gold goes 13xx+ (current cup and handle on gold daily has TP of 132x). This is extremely optimistic, but not crazy.
Invalidate with consecutive daily closes with ratio below .8
Stock exhausted!! LIFETIME opportunity in a miner!!Stock exhausted!! LIFETIME opportunity in a miner!!
Beginner!! - comments welcomed- Miners short for now ?Hi, im a beginner so this chart is probably wrong !!!
if you have any comments .. i am more than happy to learn, thanks!
Jnug to Gold Rate Hike ?? Feb 1stSo typically the miners cycle would have ended today....and maybe it did. But like I said in a earlier post, I think we may stretch this cycle out until Feb 1st. If we do have a rate hike then I am expecting a similar movement down for that day and then a sharp rise the next few days. It also appears that we may be making a zig zag pattern which started zigging today. So while I think we could go up more, I just don't think it will be a big move up. Maybe up to the 10 DMA or at least touch the $8.74 resistance line before closing at the 10DMA. In other words, we should trade sideways for the most part, on Monday and Tuesday. Then IF a rate hike does happen, it would seem highly likely that we drop to touch the 50 DMA which as you can see would also be right at about the trend line at approx. $7. And then yes, a bounce to retest the recent highs.
At that point, everyone and I mean everyone is going to say (just like they have been saying) that we are going to break out and go to the moon. If that is the case then we should see a break out above that big blue down trending resistance line. Yes it can happen, but no I do not think it will yet. My chart speaks for itself for what I think will happen. I still feel that the 14.5 month cycle that I wrote about a couple weeks ago is in play. And while that is almost never perfectly 14.5 months, for the purpose of this chart, 14.5 months ends at the same time that spot gold is suppose to end its daily cycle (end of Feb/ beginning of March). A coincidence that really should not be ignored.
I would like to bring up a scenario that I think could play out. Rate hike on the 1st. A swift 3 - 4 days market sell off (see my SP500 chart) which would coincide with Jnug making a strong pop. Then, the broader market would start its 5th a final wave higher until the May rate hike which would draw money out of gold and miners. And analysts will be writing about how gold is weak because the market is strong so no one needs a safe haven..ect, ect. And lets not forget about the YEN. I will post my Yen chart to show you the move it started a few days ago. the Yen appears to also be starting its 5th wave. And currently the Yen is much more inversely correlated to gold than the dollar is to gold.
TRADE IDEA: GDXJ FEB 17TH 30/36/37/45 IRON CONDOR/FLYThere isn't much non-earnings stuff out there that has both high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility. This is one of them.
Here I'm going with an extremely narrow iron condor, such that it's almost an iron fly ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: $338/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $462/contract
Break Evens: 32.62/40.38
Notes: I'm going to treat this as a fly for purposes of take profit and look to get 25% max.
Cup and Handle - Gold gaining strengthMiners seem to be waiting for Gold above 1219/20 as a breakout. The next fib level will be around 1235-1240.
TP at 25
TP2 at 24.75
ST 22.41
This is if we break the cup and handle.
If you are a shorter term trader I suggest waiting to see for a clear breakout and buying the momentum.
Pce.
Piranha
Jnug to Gold pullback not finished YETI just read from someone that he believes that the daily cycle for gold is finished today or tomorrow. He called it a Shallow DCL....UMMM NO. The divergences have not resolved themselves yet. And we should at least pull back to the 50 DMA for a healthy DCL. This is a half cycle that we are currently in and it is my opinion that the weight of the possible rate hike on February 1st will continue to drag gold down possibly until the decision day just like the last two times. We could do a very small one day move up but we still have room to go down in my opinion.
As far as miners go. I think we have just started the pullback for miners (JNUG) DCL low which should normally end around the 26th or 27th. But this Rate hike date may also stretch the pullback until the day of as well just like before. I do think JNUG will pop briefly right after Feb 1st. I will post my chart as to what I THINK will happen in the coming week(s).
Lets also not forget about the DOW breaking 20,000 and the Japanease Yen. So this week is important. WE shall see who is correct. Just have your stops in place which ever way you lean.
jnug hidden bearish divergenceshere is jnug with a long hidden bearish divergence and a small bullish divergence. I am guessing on the price movement but this is how it could play out towards the end of this cycle to the beginning of the next. Remember that miners and jnug do not perfectly follow Gold. Just look at jnug or GDX or whatever through the month of November and compare it to gold.
