NFP TradeAll on chart, short could test breakout, NFP could bounce it off at .707 pullback to continue long.
GDXJ
Jnug to Gold 3/31/17There is really nothing to update this weekend that I see. For once I was bummed that price settled in the blue box. The price target for Today (Friday) was approximate 6.50 and if you include afterhours, then we closed at 6.53. I would have like to have seen it close at near its high. But oh well. I am still confident that Jnug will continue to go up for most of next week. However, special attention will be paid to when I am planning on selling in order to buy in to JDST for the end of cycle drop. I feel that Tuesday the 11th will be the last day of the cycle. (I know that is a tough call). So if I want to get into JDST for the drop then I have to sell my jnug early enough for that 3 day settled funds rule to not bite me in the butt. So assuming I am correct, I would have to sell my Jnug by next Thursday in order to not get hurt holding JDST with the new cycle pop. So that's it, nothing has changed since my last few posts. Everything looks pretty darn good. GL
Gold Minuette iii inside Minute 3It was correct that gold had a few combos to push time out via abc xabc to wxy and show us a better and hopefully final Minuette Wave 2. Wave iii should be 1.618, 2.618 or 4.25 of wave 1 so our first target is 1274. This is wave 3 inside Minute's wave 3 so it should contain some big moves. Look for a 1h channel breakout and the upper may provide a test representing wave 4.
Have fun, good luck, be safe.
GDX looking promisingMulti year lows were made in Jan-16 and the long-term reversal seems to have been confirmed Dec-17 as higher lows are established. Fundamentally gold miners have attractively priced PEs, are breakeven on gold spot prices, and provide an opportunity to hedge 2017-2018 inflation risk that Yellen has softly signalled.
Entering long and buying down to 18.5, with a target at the 31 resistance provides over 2:1 risk reward.
#Gold Report by MacroView Research 4.2.17Gold, weekly close $1,248.77
DXY, weekly close 100.56
US02Y Yield 126 bps
US10Y Yields 238 bps
US Real Rates 16 bps
1D Z-Score .89
1W Z-Score 1.18
TrendFlex Alerts Yes
As Q1-17 comes to an end, the macro-landscape remains interesting for gold. U.S. economic data remains mixed. We continue to see soft (i.e. consumer and business survey data) to remain mixed. For instance, ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs are pulling back a little bit while lagging CB consumer sentiment hits 16-year highs. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment gauge ticked lower to 96.9.
As we mentioned previously, sentiment tends to look like a derivative of the stock market:
Aside from gold’s eight-plus percent gain in the first three months of 2017, another key MacroView achievement was the prediction that the U.S. yield curve would flatten despite the optimism for the Trump agenda to get pushed through and maybe provide the economic steam that eluded the Obama Administration.
Heading into into 2017, bonds yields were rising at a troubling pace. It really wasn’t due to anything spectacular, in regards to growth, but due to the expectation that inflation would continue to run hot. We took the opposite bet and believe much of the hype was centered around commodity price speculation and China’s voracious credit demand. Well, we’re already seeing inflation pressures ease in China, Europe and the U.S.
If expectations for higher inflation continue to wane, we’re likely to see central banks roll back hawkishness – especially if it’s combined with weak-to-mixed economic data. Without the pressures on monetary tightening, this should ease up pressures for both bonds and gold.
Gold currently trades at a .96 and .97 percent correlation with the U.S. 10-year and U.S. 30-year bond, respectively.
The dollar remains a crowded position with the 5-year percentile at the highest level since 2016. Even so, the dollar is on shaky ground. The only thing that remains supportive for dollar bulls is the Fed speak that 3-4 rate hikes are possible this year. We doubt that considering previous hawks are now beginning to roll back their rhetoric following poor data, causing the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model to hit .9 percent.
Near-term positioning on gold is neutral, although our TrendFlex alert is still active. Gold could see some price digestion with key levels below:
Key Levels
S1: $1,236
S2: $1,244
R1: $1,256
R2: $1,261
THE WEEK AHEAD: KRE, EWZ, GDXJWith the beginning of the next earnings season two weeks out (at least before we see something decent), I'm looking to put on some basic exchange-traded fund premium selling plays to bide my time until then. Even there, however, the premium selling opportunities aren't fantastic:
KRE (Regional Banks): I haven't played this one before, but its background implied volatility is at 25%, putting it slightly above its mid-range over the past six months (it's in the 54% percentile or so). I generally like to see exchange-traded funds at >70% implied volatility percentile over the past six months and implied volatility at 35% or more, but if I abide by those metrics, I'd be totally sidelined here. (The May 19th 49/54/55/60 "nearly an" iron fly pays 2.53 at the mid with a buying power effect of 2.47; preliminary/off hours quotes).
EWZ (Brazil): In spite of the fact that its implied volatility has been a good deal higher over the past six months (background implied is at 32% -- in the 28th percentile over the past six months), it still has some decent premium to be offered if you're willing to short straddle or iron fly. (The May 19th 33/37/38/42 iron fly pays 2.12 at the mid with a buying power effect of 1.88; preliminary/off hours quotes).
GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners): This is one I was actually looking to play directionally off of support, but waited too long to put on the play, so now it's "nondirectional" for me or nothing. (The May 19th 30/33/40/43 iron condor pays 1.21 at the mid with a buying power effect of 1.79; preliminary/off hours quotes).
VIX: With VIX, my eyeballs are always peeled for a "Term Structure" play if there isn't a pop to be had. Unfortunately, neither a pop nor a Term Structure play are to be had currently. VIX spot is at 12.4, and the first /VX futures front month that currently is >16 is September -- way too far out in time for me to put on a play (I currently still have June 17/20, and July 16/19 short call verticals on).
Gold miners heading lowerMiners have had an amazing run for most of 2016, but now it's time to get back to reality. The over-all monthly trend is still DOWN, and markets don't turn around on just one bounce like we've had at the beginning of 2016.
This retest is the bears trying to continue the bear market, will they succeed? I don't know; I'm here to make money, but I know they will retest and try to breakthrough the 12-13$ level.
If they succeed, then it's just an expected continuation of the bear market in miners, if they fail and another bottom is formed; then we might start thinking of an emerging bull market.
Jnug to Gold "BBands are tightening, big move in two weeks"Jnug Daily Chart
The price action today was right in my little blue box so that was just about perfect. We retested the 10 DMA and closed below the 20 DMA. We still have two more days for the COT report (which cuts off on Tuesday), so I can easily see Jnug drop to the lower pink line. But I gave two ideas. The first pink line is an exact measurement of the first part of this zig zag move down. If that is all we get then I could see Jnug reaching the $7.90's (100 DMA) by the end of next week. But it really isn't too much at all to see Jnug fall to the lower pink line in the next two days. At that point I would be looking for Jnug to rally to that resistance zone that I highlighted and possibly topping out at the $7.75 range. That would be about a 34-35% move. Either way, I would sell Jnug and immediately buy JDST because as you can see, the cycle will be coming to an end around April 10th. So that means Jnug should drop that last week. The BBands should be nice and tight at that point, indicating a big move is about to commence. Interesting how those BBands are coming together right when the cycle ends and a new one begins. This should break Jnug out of the orange wedge and into the larger wedge. I think we will get a really big move at that point but it should only last 1 to 1 1/2 weeks. The reason why I say that is because the daily cycle for spot gold should end sometime in middle May. So I am expecting spot gold to have rolled over by then if it doesn't already start this next two weeks. Oh and another thing to point out. If you have not noticed, the 50 DMA has started to turn down and is really not that far away from the 100 DMA. If they cross, look out below. I am going to take a guess that they cross in early May.
I left my indicator as neutral because I do think we will drop for only two days and then run. GL everyone. lets hope I am correct again.
Gold on a nice uptrend Gold seems to have started an uptrend after the the interest rate hike. as expected in the previous charts.
Jnug to Gold "Everything is moving according to plan"Jnug Daily Chart
Well that move down this morning hit my target perfectly and bounced. I am wondering, however, will it drop just a tad bit more to touch or even intraday overshoot the 10DMA. We did not hit it yet. It turned down as price dropped today. And the 20 DMA is screeming downward. I feel we will be squeezed in between the 10DMA and 20DMA for next week. I think that early the following week, jnug will breakout of that sqeeuzed zone and move to the upside for a jnug Wave c move.
As you people may have noticed, jnug and Gold are not moving up as powerfully as the last two hikes. This move is not finished yet and I may be speaking too soon but I am getting that sense. It is almost as if the hikes are losing steam. However, I am still counting on a C wave move up to the $9.63 range and possibly only making there on one day with a daily close below the 50 DMA. As you can see, I have attempted to project the possible path for the 50 DMA and it is right below that target area.
Otherwise there is really not much to talk about. Everything is moving according to plan as I saw it. I post my gold chart next. And by the way, gold closed below the 20 DMA. No Juice? hmmmm?
GOLD spiked after rate hike as expected. As per my previous chart, I was expecting Gold to spike after the rate hike just as history shows. I also believe this won't stop here, this is the start of new leg up.
Bring in that rate hike....#GOLD #FEDGold at strong support of $1194, IMO great opportunity to load some
Jnug to Gold "week of the Fed" 3/11/17I almost didn't do a analysis this weekend because it seems pretty obvious to me now that Jnug is going up for the short term. Just look at the price action last week. Gold was falling but clearly Jnug was flat. I knew that it wanted to go up and towards the end of Friday afternoon, once spot gold turned around, Jnug flew. So what's next for Jnug? I think I will show two scenarios. A conservative one and a wishful thinking one that could happen as well. So the blue arrows are the conservative path that I think is very possible. As you can see, the black 10DMA is just above the closing price. And we are just below a notable resistance area (blue line $6.36). So it is very possible that Jnug drops a little to retest the breakout level into FOMC before moving higher. But then I look at spot gold, and I see a reversal candlestick that bounced off a downtrend line and think that if spot gold continues up even a little bit, and the broader markets also continues up, then we might just gap up, at least over the 10 DMA and possibly over the $6.36 area and fly up for two days to the very strong $7.75 area before slightly consolidating for a few days. Then up again.
I keep hearing everyone talking about the dollar in a head and shoulders pattern. Maybe they are correct. But the Yen doesn't look that way at all. In about two weeks we should get an idea (bearish or bullish) of where the intermediate trend is going to be headed. Gold usually rallies hard immediately after a rate hike... just like it did in December through February 2015/16 and also just like it did this December through Feb. So if gold does not rally hard...AND break out of the wedge, then that should sound the alarm bells because gold may actually make a lower low. Much lower. If gold is going to make a lower low, then this year would be its absolute bottom.
Up next my spot gold chart
Gold's Reversal to 1280-1300 rangeGold bounces here and returns tests 1280 & 1300. Gold won't break 1300 unless the drop gets stopped at 1260. Then we may see a break out in gold but I think it's unlikely.
#Gold Report by MacroView Research 3.5.17Last week’s gold report warned that price action was extended and a pullback is warranted; and a pullback is what gold traders got. Last week’s close was the first negative close in five, and it largely was on the back of surging 2-year yields as market participants aim to price in March rate hike.
The U.S. dollar surged earlier in the week but tapered off on mixed data and Fed speak.
It was confirmed that the U.S. only grew a meager 1.9 percent in 2016, and numerous banks, including BoAML and Goldman have all ratcheted down their Q1-17 GDP forecasts sub-two percent.
Interestingly enough, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is currently at 1.8 percent for the current quarter – just over a month ago, the figure was lingering just below 3.5 percent. That’s nearly a 50% reduction in four weeks.
Friday’s speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen wasn’t too exciting. She said a rate hike in March would be “likely” given that the economic data warrants such. In our opinion, her speech was more dovish then expected with no clear commitment to significant monetary tightening. Traders may have sense a bit of dovishness because the dollar fell over .50 percent causing commodities to rebound.
Gold has broken through our S1 but has found some footing at $1,222 (S2). The near-term positioning is not as extended: it went from a 1D z-score of 1.76 to -.57, and 1W z-score of 1.03 to .56.
That’s net-bullish, but the overwhelming expectation of a looming rate hike will cause pricing pressure near-term. The nitty-gritty is that the U.S. economy is stagnating and the credit cycle is maturing. The Fed is worried about a stronger dollar, so they’re going to still tighten 3-4 times this year? Unlikely.
We remain bullish with the view that a March rate hike will end up with more strength in gold. As seen in December 2015 and 2016, rates climbed higher into the expectations of a hike, essentially pricing it in, then the yield curve began to flatten. Due to current inflation levels, a flattening curve will then drive real yields lower and gold will likely retest $1,250.
Key S/R Levels
S1: $1,222
S2: $1,200
R1: $1,249
R2: $1,281
Deja vu, this is familiar.Black chart is XAUUSD -Notice the two green boxes. It is my assertion that this is a trend change in the miners. Wait for the bounce and load up short.
JNUG channel and cloud analysisJNUG channels that I see (disclaimer: they could be all wrong LOL). But I do think they'll help to provide a guide. For example, if we can't stay inside of the larger sky blue channel in March, I think it's obvious that JNUG will go lower, like $5's or even $4's.
As far as the Ichimoku Cloud, we fell out of the cloud in Feb. But use the cloud to get a feel for how strong the price movement is. If we break back in soon (I think we REALLY need to), look for strong green candles inside of it to carry us up through the cloud for a breakout above it.
JNUG ready to rock? JNUG missed an opportunity for a bullish Exponential Moving Average cross up over the past couple weeks. Felt horrible for anyone (...uh...guilty) who bought in the late Jan/early Feb thinking that insane movement was THE start of another wild bull run like 2016. I've improved my average to $9.40 by buying in the $6's. Using the Fibonacci Extension Tool on the Dec 2016 swing low to the swing high, I see a very precise touch on the 0.236 Fib line on this deep retracement, and expect this to be as bad as it gets. It could touch it again (and again and again) as this crazy market (and especially miners, and especially leveraged ETF's) love to play head games with the little guy/girl to shake them out when the circumstances appear the most dire. Stay strong, be smart. Use those simple, powerful indicators to make your decisions. But don't be stubborn either. I like the indicators I've used here, and in a minute I'll post a different chart with another simple one you can use.
