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GDXJ

THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, HPQ EARNINGS; ASHR, GDXJ, EEM PREMIUMEARNINGS: HD (33/24) announces earnings on Tuesday before market open; HPQ (68/38), Thursday after market close. Although the rank/implied metrics are less than stellar, pictured here is an HD June 21st 180/185/200/205 iron condor paying 2.13 (1.06 at 50 max), expected move break evens, and delta/theta metrics of -2.22/2.96. Alternative Trades: June 21st 180/205 short strangle, 2.48 credit (1.24 at 50 max), one standard deviation move break evens, 4.33/9.35 delta/theta metrics. HPQ is a bit hard to work with given its size, which imply that the only way you'll get paid to play is via short straddle. The June 21st 19 is paying 1.60 (.40 at 25 max), with expected move break evens and delta/theta metrics of -5.00/2.23. Alternative Trades: June 21st 18 short put (bullish assumption; potential acquisition play), .45 credit, 29.78 delta, cost basis of 17.55 if assigned (a 7.9% discount over where the stock was trading at Friday close). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SORTED BY RANK/IMPLIED Top 5 By Rank: ASHR (57/30), GDXJ (50/28), EEM (41/21), GDX (40/34), SMH (37/29). Top 5 By Implied: OIH (34/34), EWZ (27/34), XOP (22/31), XBI (35/31), ASHR (57/30). We're a bit close in time for June setups (33 days) and a bit far out for July (61), so would probably wait until the July monthly is closer in time in the absence of absolutely desperation to pile on theta to burn ... .
NYSE:HD
by NaughtyPines
3
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, XOP, EWZ PREMIUM SELLINGAlthough there are quite a few earnings announcements up next week, none of them appear particularly attractive from both a volatility metric standpoint as well as a liquidity standpoint. For instance, MYL (78/46), EA (73/50), and ROKU (65/82) all have the right volatility metrics, but when you go to work setups, you're confronted with non-$1 wide strikes, not something you want to see if you need to roll out in time for duration ... . Consequently, you're left with looking at either single name with earnings in the rear view mirror or exchange-traded funds. On the exchange-traded fund end of things, GDXJ (51/28), ASHR (41/26), IYR (38/13), OIH (35/33), and GDX (34/23) round out the top five by rank; OIH (35/33), XOP (30/31), EWZ (15/28), GDXJ (51/28), and ASHR (41/26) round out the top five when sorted by 30-day. Pictured here is a GDXJ short strangle in the June cycle (47 days 'til expiry) that's paying 1.14 (.57 at 50% max) with break evens of 25.86/31.84 and delta/theta metrics of -3.21/2.12. Alternatively, the June 21st 29 short straddle is paying 2.36 (.59 at 25% max), break evens of 26.64/31.36 and delta/theta metrics of 11.96/2.35. The XOP June 21st 28/32 short strangle camped out around the 30 delta pays 1.16 (.58 at 50% max) with break evens of 26.84/33.16 and delta/theta metrics of 2.87/2.30. The EWZ June 21st 38/44 25 delta short strangle is paying 1.30 (.65 at 50% max) with break evens at 36.70/45.30 and delta/theta metrics of -1.42/2.84.
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
GDX - Metals Trading | Elliott Wave Structures I Q2 2019*If you like this idea please support it with a like so I can publish more. Thanks! More details about me in my signature. GDX - Elliott Wave Outlook Bullish Swings - Patterns: ABC swing in Intermediate (A) (green Simple Correction in Intermediate (B) (green) Ending Diagonal in Intermediate (C) (green) Bearish Swings - Patterns Sharp Bearish Impulse in Intermediate (A) (light blue) Simple Correction in Intermediate (B) (light blue) Ending Diagonal in Intermediate (C) (light blue) Bullish Harmonic Pattern Next expected swing: Bullish leg in an attempt to reenter the Channel. Structure change: A breach on the down-side in an impulsive manner could lead towards a down-trend confirmation for Precious Metals.
AMEX:GDX
by Lionheart-EWA
6
Elliott Wave View: More Weakness in GDXElliott Wave view calls the decline in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) from March 27, 2019 high ($23.40) as an impulse structure. In the chart below, wave 2 of that impulse ended at $22.93. Down from there, wave 3 ended at $20.67 and wave 4 ended at $21.43. The miners still need to break below wave 3 at $20.67 to validate the view and avoid a double correction. The internal of wave 3 subdivides as an impulse Elliott Wave structure of lesser degree. Wave ((i)) of 3 ended at $21.89 and wave ((ii)) of 3 ended at $22.29. Down from there, wave ((iii)) of 3 ended at $20.71, wave ((iv)) of 3 ended at $20.97, and wave ((v)) of 3 ended at $20.67. Wave 4 bounce unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((a)) ended at $21.19, wave ((b)) ended at $20.76, and wave ((c)) of 4 ended at $21.43. Near term, while bounce stays below $21.43, and more importantly below $22.93, expect the miners to extend lower. Potential target to the downside for wave 5 is $19.6 – $20, which is where wave 1 = wave 5.
AMEX:GDXShort
by Elliottwave-Forecast
THE WEEK AHEAD: INDA, GDXJ, XBI, XOP; X, AMD EARNINGSPictured here is an INDA (66/29) short strangle in the June cycle set up around the 25 delta strikes. Paying 1.00 at the mid, it has break evens of 32.00/39.00, a buying power effect of 5.65, and delta/theta metrics of .68/1.98. Unfortunately, it doesn't have the tightest markets, so expect a little price discovery should you want to get a fill. On the remainder of the exchange-traded fund front, GDXJ (54/30), XBI (25/28), and XOP (25/32) round out the top symbols ordered by rank; XOP (25/32), OIH (27/31), GDXJ (54/30), and EWZ (14/30) are the top symbols ranked by 30-day implied. Because I don't have any gold on at the moment, I'm leaning toward putting something on in GDXJ: the June 21st 28/33 short strangle is paying .97 at the mid with 27.03/33.97 break evens, a 3.90 buying power effect, and delta/theta figures of .13/1.92. And while we're well into earnings, nothing stunning pops to the forefront with ideal volatility contraction metrics, AMD and X appear to be the most amenable to that type of play with >50% 30-day. AMD (48/67) announces on Tuesday after market close, and the down-trodden X (54/56) announces on Thursday after market close. Both are also small enough to either short straddle or go 30 delta short strangle.
CBOE:INDA
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: NFLX, IBM EARNINGS; ASHR, GDXJ, XOP, EWZEARNINGS: NFLX and IBM both announce on Tuesday after market close, so look to put on something in the waning hours of Monday's session if you're going to do a volatility contraction play. Pictured here is a NFLX (42/46) 25/10 iron condor,* with the short option strikes at the 25 delta; the longs at the 10 (as of Friday close). Metrics: $825 max profit; $1675 max loss; 24.6% return at 50% max; break evens wide of the expected move at 311.75/393.25, delta -.74, theta 16.21. Potential volatility contraction from the nearest weekly (April 18th: 78.6%) to the May expiry (44.2%) appears to be in the neighborhood of 40%. The wings can naturally be narrowed to generate a softer buying power effect (e.g., the 310/320/385/395 pays 4.18 ($418) with a max loss/buying power effect of 5.82 ($582), -.45 delta, 6.48 theta and with break evens still wide of the expected). IBM (67/29): The May 17th 130/135/155/160 is paying 1.50 at the mid with fairly wide markets and pesky strike availability in the May cycle where you'd ordinarily want to pitch your tent. On check on a similarly delta'd setup in the New York session, I'd pass if you can't filled with a fairly delta neutral setup for at least one-third the width of the wings. Potential volatility contraction from the nearest weekly (April 18th: 53.9%) to the following monthly (May 17th: 28.4%) looks to be fairly decent at around 45%. THE EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND FRONT Top of the List: ASHR (53/29), GDXJ (33/28), OIH (27/31), XLV (24/14), GDX (21/22), XOP (20/30), and EWZ (18/32). We're kind of mid-cycle here with May being a tad short (33 days) and June being a tad long (68 days), so would probably wait to put something on until June comes more into view. Since I don't have anything on in EWZ currently, I might make an exception there. The May 17th 26 delta 38/43 short strangle is paying 1.19, with break evens wide of the expected move at 36.81/44.19, delta -.16, theta 3.6. BROAD MARKET With VIX finishing the week at a penny north of 12, we could be in for a long, dry summer of premium selling (who knows, really). A good time to dry powder out and keep it dry for the next uptick in volatility ... . * -- There is some research in support of the notion that 25/10's more closely emulate short strangle performance over a large number of occurrences; this is naturally intuitive, since you're paying less for the longs, bringing in more credit, and therefore generating more favorable break evens over a tighter winged setup.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
5