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AUD/USD steady despite weak GDPThe Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6704 in the European session, down 0.10% today at the time of writing. The Australian dollar took a bath a day earlier, sliding 1.1%, one of the sharpest daily declines this year. Australia’s economy gained a paltry 0.2% q/q in the second quarter, shy of the market estimate of 0.3% and unchanged for a third consecutive quarter. This was the softest pace of growth in five quarters and the small gain was driven by higher government spending as household spending declined. Yearly, GDP climbed 1%, in line with the market estimate and down from 1.3% in the first quarter. This was the lowest annual GDP release since the fourth quarter of 2020. Australia’s economic picture is being described by some local commentators as a “horror show”. This is not a wild exaggeration as GDP is in the doldrums, inflation remains sticky and consumer spending was flat in July. The Reserve Bank has maintained rates at 4.35% since November but inflation hasn’t fallen as quickly as anticipated. The GDP release is unlikely to be a factor at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next meeting on Sept. 24. The central bank is primarily concerned with inflation and the labor market. Governor Bullock has essentially ruled out a rate cut in the next six months but the markets have priced in a rate cut before year’s end and more cuts in early 2025. Bullock will speak at an event in Sydney early on Thursday and the markets will be looking for some insights from the hawkish Governor regarding future rate policy. There is support at 0.6681 and 0.6650 0.6738 and 0.6769 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD sinks ahead of GDPThe Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, down 0.88% today at the time of writing. Australia’s economy has been sputtering and the markets aren’t expecting much change from second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. GDP is expected to trickle lower to 1% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q1, which was the weakest pace of growth since Q4 2020. Quarterly, the market estimate for GDP stands at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in Q1. GDP-per-capita is expected to be negative, another indication that economic activity remains subdued. Australia has been hit by a drop in iron ore and core prices and exports fell by 4.4% in the second quarter, which doesn’t bode well for the Australian dollar. The GDP is unlikely to change the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plans when it meets on Sept. 24. The central bank is closely watching inflation, which remains stubbornly high, as well as the labor market. Governor Bullock has said she has no plans to lower the cash rate from its current 4.35% for the next six months. The RBA has stuck to its “higher for longer” stance and has maintained rates since November. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates on September 18, with a 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut and a 31% likelihood of a half-point cut. Ahead of the meeting is a crucial employment report on Friday. The previous jobs report was much weaker than expected and triggered a meltdown in the financial markets. Another weak jobs report would raise the likelihood of a half-point cut, while a solid release will cement a quarter-point cut. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6780 and is testing support at 0.6737. Below, there is support at 0.6708 0.6809 and 0.6852 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD sinks ahead of GDPThe Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, down 0.88% today at the time of writing. Australia’s economy has been sputtering and the markets aren’t expecting much change from second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. GDP is expected to trickle lower to 1% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q1, which was the weakest pace of growth since Q4 2020. Quarterly, the market estimate for GDP stands at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in Q1. GDP-per-capita is expected to be negative, another indication that economic activity remains subdued. Australia has been hit by a drop in iron ore and core prices and exports fell by 4.4% in the second quarter, which doesn’t bode well for the Australian dollar. The GDP is unlikely to change the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plans when it meets on Sept. 24. The central bank is closely watching inflation, which remains stubbornly high, as well as the labor market. Governor Bullock has said she has no plans to lower the cash rate from its current 4.35% for the next six months. The RBA has stuck to its “higher for longer” stance and has maintained rates since November. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates on September 18, with a 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut and a 31% likelihood of a half-point cut. Ahead of the meeting is a crucial employment report on Friday. The previous jobs report was much weaker than expected and triggered a meltdown in the financial markets. Another weak jobs report would raise the likelihood of a half-point cut, while a solid release will cement a quarter-point cut. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6780 and is testing support at 0.6737. Below, there is support at 0.6708 0.6809 and 0.6852 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD – Australian retail sales flat, Aussie shrugsThe Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6804 in the European session, up 0.09% today at the time of writing. Consumer spending in Australia has been weak, which has chilled economic activity. Retail sales for July didn’t provide any relief with a reading of zero, shy of the market estimate of 0.3% and well off the June gain of 0.5%. Consumers continue to feel squeezed by elevated interest rates and the high cost of living. The weak economy and a cooling labor market are making consumers even more cautious about discretionary spending. Will today’s soft data prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider a rate cut? The RBA is frustrated with the slow decline in inflation - Governor Bullock has said that the central bank is unlikely to cut for six months and RBA members have been discussing a possible rate hike at recent meetings. The markets are marching to a different tune and have priced in a rate cut in November with more cuts early next year. The remaining tier-1 events ahead of the Sept. 24 policy meeting are GDP and the employment report and both releases will be important factors in the rate decision. If these numbers are weaker than supported, it would support the case for a rate cut before year’s end. The week wraps up with the US Core PCE Price index, considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The markets are expecting a small increase in July – from 2.5% to 2.6% y/y and 0.1% to 0.2% m/m. A small move is unlikely to concern the Fed, which has shifted its focus to the weakening labor market now that the battle with inflation is largely over. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6808. Above, there is resistance at 0.6822 0.6776 and 0.6754 are providing support
by OANDA
Australian CPI falls but markets not impressedThe Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6796 in the European session, up 0.06% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s inflation rate continued to decelerate in July, although the markets were hoping for more. CPI rose 3.5%, down from 3.8% in June but above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the lowest figure since March but much of the decline was driven by electricity rebates which artificially lowered electricity prices. Core inflation eased but goods inflation remained flat. The markets weren’t impressed with the inflation data and the odds of a rate cut in November fell to 48%, down from 58% prior to the inflation release. The markets are more dovish than the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has discussed raising rates at recent meetings. The central bank is not satisfied with the pace of underlying inflation and has projected that it won’t return to the target band of 2% to 3% until the end of 2025. Governor Bullock has said that the Bank has no plans to cut for at least six months, but the markets are betting that the RBA won’t stay on the sidelines while the Fed and other major central banks are lowering rates. The financial markets are hanging onto every word from FOMC members and we’ll hear from members Christopher Waller later today and Rafael Bostic early on Thursday. As well, the US releases second estimate GDP for the second quarter on Thursday. The initial estimate showed the economy powering ahead with a 2.8% gain, double the 1.4% pace in Q1. The second estimate is expected to confirm the initial reading and confirm that the economy remains in solid shape, despite concerns about a weak employment labor which led to a market meltdown earlier this month. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6784. Below, there is support at 0.6771 0.6805 and 0.6818 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Is SP500 strike to cover crisisDear All, This is SP500 to GDP Ratio chart which is show us maybe we should ready for another crisis. If you compare this chart to Will500PR to GDP Ratio I have published before you can clearly see negative bearish divergence between these two that means total public traded shares do not touched higher top but SP500 index reaches higher rates; So its obvious to see a sharp shrinkage as soon as possible. See if FED can cover it by soft landing or not?
SP:SPXShort
by AtareumFX
GBP/USD extends gains as retail sales bounce backThe British pound has extended its gains on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2887 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day at the time of writing. It has been a winning week for the pound, which has climbed 1%. There was more good news from the UK economy as retail sales rebounded in July by 0.5% m/m, after a revised decline of 0.9% in June and in line with the market estimate. Annually, GDP surged 1.4%, compared to -0.8% in June and matching the market estimate. The pound has moved higher in response to the positive retail sales data. The bounce in retail sales reflects summer discounts and purchases related to the Euro 2024 and the Paris Olympics, such as apparel. As well, with inflation finally under control and running close to 2%, consumers are responding by opening up their wallets and purses. The positive retail sales report follows yesterday’s solid GDP release. The UK economy recorded rose 0.6% in Q2, a second straight quarter of growth. The economy is showing some strength in the second quarter but that may not have much effect on the Bank of England’s rate path. The increase in growth may not be sustainable and BoE policy makers have said that they are more focused on inflation, particularly service inflation, which remains much higher than the BoE’s 2% target. The markets are expecting further cutting before the end of the year and have priced in a rate reduction at the November meeting. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2884. Above, there is resistance at 1.2914 1.2841 and 1.2811 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Euro-Zone GDP Quarterly *3M (QoQ)ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ (+0.3 %) Q1/2024 source: EUROSTAT The Eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2022, to beat market expectations of a marginal 0.1% expansion and gain traction following muted readings since the fourth quarter of 2022. The result added leeway for the European Central Bank to refrain from cutting rates to a larger extent this year should inflationary pressures prove to be more stubborn than previously expected. Among the currency bloc’s largest economies, both the German and the French GDPs expanded by 0.2%, while that from Italy grew by 0.3% and that from Spain expanded by 0.7%, all above market estimates. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year ECONOMICS:EUGDPYY , the Eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.4%, beating market expectations of 0.2%, and gaining traction after two straight quarters of 0.1% growth.
ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
240729 Weekly OutlookThe following week have major data release including, 240730 Tue CB Consumer Confidence **** 240731 Wed Fed Interest Rate Decision ***** 240801 Thu Initial Jobless Claims **** 240801 Fri Nonfarm Payrolls ***** Unemployment Rate ***** Consumer Confidence is the major leading indicator alongside Michigan Consumer index. Investors should follow the rise of two indexes to lead increase in economic data like inflation, GDP, labor market conditions, as well as economic conditions. Fed rate is expected to remain unchanged, while market discounting the first cut in the cycle to come in September. Labor market show resilience all the way that give space to maintain higher rates in this cycle for longer. Even the first rate cute is forecasted for September, I would still expect the higher rates to stay here for longer period due to resilient labor market, as shown by labor market indicators. There are no signs for S&P to weaken this time, rather shuttle up and down at high levels. Note that last adjustment in S&P followed the deviation of 12% from major trend line 200SMA. Attentive investors could observe it previously. When the market finally digest selling orders, S&P should resume the rising trend.
AMEX:VOO
by moncap2023
USD/JPY – Yen on a tear, US GDP blows past forecast The Japanese yen continues to gain ground against the US dollar. USD/JPY is trading at 153.68 early in the North American session, down 0.14% on the day. Earlier today, USD/JPY fell as low as 151.93 (1.3%), its lowest level since May 3, before paring most of these losses. The yen has soared, rising 2.4% this week and a staggering 4.5% in the month of July. There’s plenty of buzz but also uncertainty in the air as the yen has gone on a torrid run against the hapless US dollar. The yen jumped 1.1% on Wednesday after a senior Japanese official urged the Bank of Japan to normalize policy. As well, the sharp drop in global tech stocks sent investors fleeing to traditional safe havens, including the Japanese yen. The Bank of Japan meets on July 30-31 and it’s a close call as to whether it will stay on the sidelines or raise interest rates. The central bank is also expected to announce details of a plan to cut bond purchases in order to reduce its massive monetary stimulus. The BoJ has hinted that a rate hike is coming, but the question of timing is up in the air. Core inflation rose to 2.6% in June and wages have climbed sharply, setting up the case for the central bank to raise rates. On the other side of the coin, consumer spending has been weak and inflation is relatively moderate. The US economy climbed 2.8% y/y in the second quarter, double the 1.4% rate in the first quarter and blowing past the forecast of 2.0%. An increase in consumer spending helped drive the strong gain. On the inflation front, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Federal Reserve, eased to 2.6%, down from 3.4% in Q1. USD/JPY tested support at 152.68 earlier. Below, there is support at 151.45 There is resistance at 154.33 and 155.56
by fisherkj4
Hang Seng Slips after New Disappointing Chinese DataLast week’s soft CPI report showed that China has not escaped deflationary pressures and today’s data reaffirmed the weak consumer demand environment, as retail sales rose just 2% y/y in June and the worst print since late-2022. Adding to the woes, the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 and the slowest pace in more than a year. HKG33 slips after the new disappointing data and remains in peril of breaching the ascending trend line from the 2024 lows and the 50% Fibonacci of the advance from that low (at around 17,200). That could open the door to further losses towards 16,000, but we are cautious around such moves. This week’s new disappointing releases may aggravate concerns around the economy, but also raise the chances of more stimulus by Beijing just as the Third Plenum kicks off, where officials will have the chance to discuss supportive measures. HKG33 can find renewed support as a result and last week it managed to gain ground, overcoming the poor inflation report. Although the upside remains unfriendly, the index tries to hold the initiative about the EMA200 (black line) that keeps it on track for 18,736, but sustained advance towards this year’s peak 19,794 does not look easy. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:HKG33
by FXCM
GBP/USD hits 4-month high on strong GDPThe British pound has extended its gains on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2876 in the European session, up 0.22% on the day. The sun is shining in London today and there’s plenty to smile about besides the pleasant weather. England has punched their ticket to the final of the Euro football tournament and UK GDP was stronger than expected. The British pound headed higher and has hit its highest level since March 8. The UK economy is showing signs of a rebound after slipping into a recession in the second half of 2023. Annualized GDP jumped 1.4% in May, up from a revised 0.6% in April and beating the 1.2% market estimate. Monthly, GDP improved to 0.4% after zero growth in April and above the market estimate of 0.2%. The weather has played a significant role in the improved data. April was unusually rainy, which dampened consumer spending. May, however, was the warmest on record which revitalized retail sales. Inflation has declined dramatically, from 11.1% in October 2022 down to 2% in May, matching the Bank of England’s inflation target. This has raised expectations that the BoE will deliver a rate cut but the central bank remains cautious. The BoE meets next on August 1 and markets expectations are a 50/50 coin toss as to whether the Bank will hold or take the plunge and lower rates. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Powell wrapped up two days of testimony before US lawmakers. Powell signaled that the Fed was moving closer to a rate cut decision but it was too early to declare victory over inflation and said “more good data” was needed before the Fed would feel confident lowering rates. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2872. Above, there is resistance at 1.2897 1.2825 and 1.2800 are the next support levels
by OANDA
NZD edges lower ahead of RBNZ decisionThe New Zealand dollar is steady on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6115, down 0.16% in the European session at the time of writing. The New Zealand dollar looked sharp last week against the slumping US dollar, climbing 0.88%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold its cash rate at 5.50% for an eighth straight time when its meets early on Wednesday. The RBNZ has been unwilling to shift away from its ‘higher for longer’ stance, despite the worsening economic downturn. The services and manufacturing sectors are both showing contraction and consumer and business confidence has been weak. The economy posted annual growth of only 0.3% in the first quarter after two quarters of contraction, which is a technical recession. The weak New Zealand economy badly needs a rate cut to kick-start growth, but the RBNZ’s first priority is to bring inflation back down to the target band of 1% to 3%, preferably around the 2% midpoint. Inflation eased from 4.7% to 4.0% in the first quarter but this is still above the target band. What can we expect from the central bank? With a rate hold widely expected at Wednesday’s meeting, the focus will be on the tone of the rate statement. At the previous meeting in May, the RBNZ projected that it wouldn’t lower rates until the third quarter of 2025 and the economy may have worsened since then, which could delay a rate cut even further. I expect that the message from Wednesday’s meeting is that rates will not drop before the inflation picture improves and the RBNZ could warn that rate hikes remain on the table. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6114. Below, there is support at 0.6079 0.6180 and 0.6215 are the next lines of resistance
by OANDA
Euro eyes French inflationThe euro has gained ground on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0707, up 0.26% on the day. The euro has stayed close to the 1.07 line for much of the week as it looks for direction. The eurozone releases the June inflation report next week. The French inflation release, which will be released on Friday, could be a precursor for the eurozone release. French inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.3% in April. Monthly, CPI is expected to tick up to 0.1%, up from 0% in May. The European Central Bank will be hoping that inflation moves lower towards the 2% target. The ECB cut interest rates earlier this month and another rate cut will largely depend on the direction that inflation takes. Policy makers have long been concerned about an inflation rebound following a rate cut and an increase in eurozone inflation next week would dampen hopes of another rate cut in the near term. The ECB meets next on July 18th. It has been a relatively quiet week for the euro but that could change on the weekend, as French voters go to the polls in the first round of a parliamentary vote. French President Macron called the snap elections after the extreme right made sharp gains in the recent European Parliamentary elections. Macron is hoping to mobilize the center, but if his plan backfires and the extreme right gains ground, it will trigger uncertainty in France and the financial markets and the euro would likely take a tumble. The election drama could mean volatility from the euro on Monday. In the US, Final (third estimate) GDP posted a gain of 1.4% q/q, as expected. This was slightly higher than the 1.3% gain in the second estimate. The US economy has slowed down significantly in the first quarter, after a strong gain of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Still, the Fed is yet to cut rates due to unexpectedly high inflation. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0710. Above, there is resistance at 1.0740 1.0688 and 1.0658 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD dips as UK growth stallsThe British pound has lost ground on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2760 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.29% on the day. The UK economy showed no growth in April, which was in line with expectations but below the March reading of 0.4% m/m. This was the weakest reading in four months, as manufacturing and construction declined, offsetting the rise in services. Yearly, GDP rose 0.6% in April, down from 0.7% in May and in line with expectations. April showers dampened consumer spending as the UK economy continues to struggle. With a national election taking place on July 4th, politicians will be monitoring and making use of every economic release. The ruling Conservatives are trailing badly in the polls and today’s weak GDP could well be another nail in the coffin for the Conservatives. The Bank of England meets next week but there is little chance a rate cut in the middle of an election campaign. The markets have priced in an initial rate cut in September, although an August cut is a possibility, when the BoE releases quarterly growth and inflation forecasts. The advantage of waiting till September is that the Fed may cut at its September meeting, which is a day before the BoE meets. If the Fed does trim rates, then a BoE cut would not have as much negative impact on the British pound. In the US, May inflation decelerated. The headline figure fell from 3.4% y/y to 3.3% and the core rate dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%. The Federal Reserve held the benchmark rate, as expected, but noted that inflation was moving closer to the 2% target. The Fed remains cautious and has signaled just one rate cut before the end of the year. The probability of a quarter-point cut in September is 61%, according to CME’s FedWatch. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2796. Below, there is support at 1.2733 1.2862 and 1.2925 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBP/USD shrugs as UK unemployment rises, GDP nextThe British pound is drifting on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2720 in the European session at the time of writing, down 0.08% on the day. The UK released the May employment report earlier today. Next up is GDP on Wednesday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for April, following a 0.4% gain in March. Today’s UK employment report indicated that the labor market continues to cool down, with a notable rise in unemployment. Claimants for unemployment benefits jumped by 50.4 thousand in May, up sharply from a revised 8.4 thousand increase in April and higher than the market estimate of 10.2 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% in the three months to April, up from 4.3% in the previous period and the market estimate of 4.3%. Job growth continued to slow, falling by 139,000. Wage growth in the private sector, a key gauge for the central bank, fell to 5.8%, its lowest level since mid-2022. The drop in wage growth was impressive as the government hiked the minimum wage by 9.8% in April and there were concerns that sharp increase would send wage growth higher. The job numbers will be a relief for the Bank of England, which needs to see a weaker labor market in order to start lowering rates. There won’t be a rate cut at the next meeting in June due to the national election on July 4th. The markets have fully priced a quarter-point cut by November and the employment report has raised the likelihood of a second cut before the end of the year to 40%, up from 20% on Monday, prior to the employment report. During the election campaign, BoE policy makers have cancelled all speeches and public appearances, which means there won’t be any feedback from the BoE about today’s inflation report and other key data over the next several weeks. GBP/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.2745. Above, there is resistance at 1.2795 1.2671 and 1.2621 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/JPY calm as GDP within expectationsThe Japanese yen is calm on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.91, up 0.09% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s GDP declines Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter with a weak reading of -1.8% y/y, following a revised 0.4% gain in Q4 2023. This was slightly higher than the market estimate of -1.9% and the initial estimate of -2.0%. On a quarterly basis, GDP declined by 0.5%, in line with expectations. This followed a small gain of 0.1% in the fourth quarter. The weak GDP data follows a soft household spending release last week, which showed decline of 1.2% m/m in April. The Bank of Japan meets on June 14th and is not expected to raise interest rates, after a historic rate hike in March. This was the first rate hike since 2007 and a clear shift away from the BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy. There is speculation that the BoJ might discuss reducing its purchases of Japanese government bonds in an effort to unwind monetary policy in order to shore up the ailing Japanese yen. Strong US nonfarm payrolls boost US dollar Friday’s US nonfarm payroll report was hotter than expected and provided a boost to the US dollar against all the major currencies, including the yen. Nonfarm payrolls in May rose to 272 thousand, blowing past the market estimate of 185,000 and much stronger than the revised gain of 165 thousand in April. Wage growth accelerated in May and was also higher than expected. Surprisingly, the unemployment rate crept up to 4%, up from 3.9% in April and above the market estimate of 3.9%. The strong job numbers have helped cushion the impact on the economy of high rates and that has kept inflation stubbornly high. According the CME’s MarketWatch, the odds of a quarter-point cut in September have dropped to 46%, compared to 51% just one week ago. There is virtually no chance of a rate cut at this week’s meeting, but investors will be very interested in what the Fed has to say. There is resistance at 157.52 and 158.28 156.33 and 155.57 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/JPY steady despite soft household spendingThe Japanese yen is calm on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.50, down 0.06% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s economic activity has been sluggish and household spending, a key driver of economic growth, declined by 1.2% m/m in April. This followed a 1.2% gain in March and was well short of the market estimate of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, household spending rose 0.5%, up from -1.2% but short of the market estimate of 0.6%. Japanese households have been curbing spending as inflation is high and economic conditions remain gloomy. On Monday, we’ll get a look at Japan’s GDP for the first quarter and the forecast is not looking good. The economy is expected to have contracted by 0.5% q/q in Q1 after no growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. This would point to the economy barely avoiding a recession. On an annualized basis, the economy is expected to have declined by 2% after a gain of 0.4% in the fourth quarter. The Bank of Japan meets on June 14th and a weak GDP report could complicate plans to tighten policy. The BoJ has hinted that it will continue on the path to normalization but if the central bank doesn’t make any moves at the June meeting, the weak Japanese yen could lose more ground. In the US, the week wraps up with the nonfarm payrolls report for May. This release is one of the most important events on the data calendar but has found itself overshadowed by inflation releases. Still, nonfarm payrolls is a market-mover that can have a significant impact on the US dollar. The market estimate stands at 185,000 for May, little changed from the 175,000 gain in April. USD/JPY tested resistance at 155.81 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 156.21 155.19 was tested in support earlier. The next support level is 154.74
by OANDA
USD/JPY eyes household spendingThe Japanese yen is steady on Thursday after showing sharp swings throughout the week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.27, up 0.10% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s consumers have been holding tight on the purse strings as inflation remains high and economic conditions remain gloomy. In March, household spending declined to 1.2% m/m, down from 1.4% in February. The downswing is expected to continue, with a market estimate of just 0.2% for April. Japan releases GDP on Monday and the markets are bracing for some bad news. Japan’s economy is expected to have contracted in the first quarter, with a market estimate of -0.5% q/q, after no growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. Yearly, the economy is expected to have contracted by 2.0%, after a small gain of 0.4% in the fourth quarter. Private sector demand has fallen and exports are also down. A weak GDP release could delay any plans at the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. The BoJ meets on June 14th and has hinted that it will take steps on the path towards normalization. The Japanese yen remains at low levels and could lose more ground if the BoJ doesn’t change any policy settings at the meeting. The US wraps up the week with nonfarm payrolls on Friday and the report is expected to show that the US labor market is slowly cooling off. In April, nonfarm payrolls fell to 175,000 down sharply from 330,000 in March. This marked the weakest job growth in six months. Little change is expected in the May report, with a market estimate of 185,000. USD/JPY tested support at 155.75 earlier. Below, there is support at 155.01 156.86 and 157.60 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Potential Head & Shoulders Forming! - AUHere I have AUD/USD on the 1 HR Chart! Price so far has began to form what looks to be a Strong Reversal Pattern, Head & Shoulders! You can see a clear Left Shoulder falling down to the Support Zone creating our "Neckline" @ .6633! Followed by the creation of the "Head" being a rejection off the Falling Resistance back down to the "Neckline" and NOW finally to potentially finish the Right Shoulder! Based on the first shoulder, the Resistance Zone @ ( .6671 - .6665 ) and with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level matching the height of the Left Shoulder @ .66727, I am looking for Price to hit this very spot and then show rejection pushing price back down to the Neckline for CONFIRMATION OF PATTERN!!! INVALIDATION OF PATTERN comes in if price decides to Break and Close above .66727 and is unable to move back down! Fundamentally, AUD had GDP come in at a .2% decrease and with heavier news for USD later this week, this idea could come to life so lets keep an eye out!! **On Confirmation of Pattern, I will be looking for a Target Profit down at Support @ .66000
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci