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New Zealand dollar sliding, GDP nextNZD/USD has extended its losses today. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6222, down 0.59% on the day. The New Zealand dollar continues to fall, and fast. The currency has slumped 1.93% this week and is trading just above 0.6216, a 2-year low. There is plenty of hand-wringing ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, as the financial markets nervously await the next rate increase. The meeting is live, with the Fed most likely to raise rates by 0.50% for a second straight meeting. However, there are voices calling for a massive 0.75% hike, notably, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs. It would be a shock if the Fed delivered a 0.75% increase, given the turbulent economic environment. The recent US inflation report shows inflation continues to accelerate, raising doubts that an aggressive Fed can guide the economy to a soft landing and the inversion of US Treasury yields is adding to these concerns. A 0.75% salvo from the Fed could lead to a sharp backlash from the markets, which the Fed will be keen to avoid. The US dollar enjoyed a spectacular day on Monday against most major currencies, and the dollar index surged above resistance at 105. US 10-year yields rose as high as 3.38% earlier in the day, and the upward movement continues to support the US dollar. Risk-correlated currencies like the New Zealand dollar were pummelled, with NZD/USD falling by 1.49%. New Zealand releases first-quarter GDP later today, with the markets bracing for a modest gain of 0.6% QoQ. This follows a 3.0% gain in Q4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be keeping a close eye on the strength of economy, as the Bank tries to steer the economy to a soft landing while raising interest rates. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6244. Below, there is support at 0.6099 There is resistance at 0.6288 and 0.6413
by OANDA
UK to announce GDP figures todayEUR/USD ⬇️ GBP/USD ⬇️ AUD/USD ⬇️ USD/CAD ⬆️ XAU ⬆️ WTI ⬇️ Major currencies retreated over the weekend, alternating between sharp falls and trading flat. EUR/USD slowed at 1.0520, closed at 1.0515 and currently trading at 1.0482. Tomorrow (14 June), the Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices will provide insight into European inflation. The British Pound followed the Euro by dropping to a closing price of 1.2314, now at 1.2271. Later today in the afternoon, the UK Office for National Statistics will provide a series of GDP and Manufacturing Production figures, with employment data to follow afterwards. Meanwhile in the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) announcement on Tuesday is expected to increase from 0.5% to 0.8%, a further divergence to the core PPI forecast, indicating soaring energy prices to be the primary source of inflation. USD/CAD closed at 1.2781, and kept climbing to 1.2814. With new cases in Beijing faltering hopes of reopening, the Aussie was weakened against the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair declined to close at 0.7051, and just went further down to 0.7006. Gold futures were at 1,875.5 last week, the rally ended after meeting resistance at 1,880 level, eventually returning to 1,864. Crude oil experienced wild fluctuations from a closing price of 120.67, now bouncing between 116 and 119 a barrel. United States 10-Year Bond Yield ascended to 3.200%, a high since 2008. More information on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
AUD drifting ahead of retail salesThe Australian dollar started the week with gains of close to one percent but has been mostly drifting since then. AUD/USD is trading quietly, just below the 0.71 line. It hasn't been a very good week on the Australian release front, raising concerns that the economy may be slowing down. Manufacturing and Services PMIs both slowed in May, while Construction Work Done and Private New Capital Expenditure both recorded declines in the first quarter. The week winds up with April Retail Sales on Friday, which is projected to slow to 0.9%, after a 1.6% in March. Australia releases GDP next week, and an underperforming release would likely dampen sentiment towards the Australian dollar. The new Labour government is rolling up its sleeves after its election victory and getting to work. Both Labour and the defeated Liberal party made campaign promises to review RBA operations, including how it targets inflation. The new Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, says he will announce his findings shortly. Chalmers said on Wednesday that he had inherited "very tricky" economic conditions, including rising inflation and interest rates, and a massive trillion-dollar debt. The FOMC minutes didn't contain any surprises, which actually soothed nervous markets. Investors have become increasingly concerned that the US economy might tip into recession. Recent data, such as housing, has been weak, while at the same time that the Federal Reserve has embarked on an aggressive rate-hike cycle aimed at slowing the economy and containing inflation. With inflation still not showing signs of peaking, there have been calls from some Fed officials to deliver a super-super-size 75 bps hike. To the relief of the markets, the minutes appeared to put to rest such a drastic move, as the Fed signalled that it will hike by 50 bps in June and July, followed by a pause in September. This would allow the Fed to monitor the effects of the June and July hikes on the economy and on inflation levels. 0.7118 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.7196 There is support at 0.6996 and 0.6918
by OANDA
Pound rises on US inflation, GDP loomsThe British pound is in positive territory, as the currency tries to break a four-day losing streak. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2355, up 0.36% on the day. US inflation dipped in April, but still came in above the forecast. Headline CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, above the estimate of 8.1%. Core CPI came in at 6.2%, down from 6.5% but above the estimate of 6.0%. The US dollar is broadly lower as a result, although the decline would have been sharper had the estimates been right on. Today's inflation data will no doubt result in some headlines proclaiming an "inflation peak", but I would caution that it seems premature to declare that inflation is on its way down after just one release. Higher interest rates will do the job and curtail inflation, but it will take time. In the meantime, today's inflation report will not change the Fed's stance, and the CME's FedWatch has pegged the likelihood of a 50-bps rate hike in June at 89%. Looking forward, inflation gazing has become even trickier in the current environment. There are huge unknowns around price pressures due to the Ukraine war, as well as the extent of China's slowdown and the impact on supply chains due to China's uncompromising zero-Covid policy. With energy prices at very high levels, it will be difficult for headline CPI to come down. Over in the UK, we'll get a load of data on Tuesday. The key release, Preliminary GDP for Q1, is expected to slow to 1.0%, down from 1.3% in the fourth quarter. The UK economy is showing an unhealthy mix of slower growth together with soaring inflation, which has raised concerns about stagflation. The BoE has been raising rates to curb inflation, but investors have not been impressed, as the pound has hit hard times and hit a 23-month low earlier this week. There is support at 1.2199 and 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418
by OANDA
GDP about to slow down!I have created this chart based on analytical ideas of Raoul Pal. The idea of this chart is to show that we can expect a decline in gross domestic product (GDP), based on looking at the rail car freight decline. We have seen one of the sharpest declines in rail car freight. On top the leading indicator for the GDP the ISM (from the Institute for Supply Management) is moving down indicating that growth in GDP will slow down soon. Will we see a slow growth and a declining inflation? Stay tuned for more charts on this series.... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
FRED:RAILFRTCARLOADSD11Short
by CarpeMomentum
USA: That GDP HeadlineCNBC: U.S. GDP fell at a 1.4% pace to start the year as pandemic recovery takes a hit First thing we need to do is ignore the headline completely and dig into the details. "Just tell me if it's good or bad!" It's not that simple. The problem with any broad-based measurement like GDP is that the good stuff is hiding in the details. Quick recap of the GDP calculation: GDP = private consumption + gross private investment + government investment + government spending + (exports – imports) And it's that last part that matters most: (Exports - Imports). Take a look at this chart comparing US imports and exports 👇 Usually, the two move roughly in lockstep even as the US maintains a large trade deficit with the world (by importing more than it exports). That trade deficit has ballooned since the pandemic with imports massively outpacing exports. Why does that matter? Because Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. Imports, by definition, aren't produced within the country's borders. One countries' imports are another countries' GDP (the exporter). So the yuuuuge trade deficit was a big part of the picture. There was plenty to be positive about in the report. Demand was strong and as Jason Furman notes private final domestic demand was up 3.7% in Q1. Consumption: +2.7% Business fixed investment: +9.2% Residential investment: +2.1% Yes, it's a negative GDP print, but the underlying economy is still strong. However, it's also a negative GDP print, so we shouldn't just dismiss it out of hand. We need to frame the recession talk. A recession is defined as: "A significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." Then there's a technical recession which is defined more simply as: "Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth" We're nowhere near it on the first measure, but just one quarter away on the second measure... 😜 And the data today was once again indicative of a strong economy in March. Income & Consumption both came in above expectations. The Employment Cost Index at 1.4% will be hot enough to keep the Fed sweating about a wage-price spiral embedding inflation in the economy. For now , the US economy is ticking along nicely.
ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ
by FinkPro
Euro rebounds on strong GDP, inflation dataThe euro has bounced back on Friday with strong gains, ending a nasty 6-day losing streak. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0565, up 0.64% on the day. It has been a rough road for the euro, which hit a 5-year low this week as it broke below the 1.05 line. We're seeing a correction today, primarily due to solid GDP data out of Germany and the Eurozone. German GDP rose 4.0% in Q1 YoY, above the estimate of 3.8% and well ahead of the 1.8% gain in the Q4 of 2020. Eurozone GDP rose to 5.0% on an annualized basis, matching the forecast and above the prior release of 4.7%. The euro also received a boost as Eurozone CPI is expected to hit 7.5% YoY in April, up from 7.4%. Despite today's positive data, there are dark clouds on the horizon, which will more than likely send the euro back to its losing ways. France and Italy, the largest economies after Germany in the eurozone, both recorded negative growth of -0.2% QoQ in Q1, while Germany eked out a 0.2% gain. This points to the heavy toll that the Ukraine war has taken on the eurozone economies, and the war could certainly intensify, with Russia making a push in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine. There is also uncertainty surrounding the sanctions against Russia. On the one hand, there is talk of the EU banning oil imports from Russia, which would badly hurt the Russian economy but also dampen growth in Western Europe. At the same time, there are reports that some major European energy companies have accepted Moscow's demands to pay for gas and oil in roubles. This could lead to a collision between the companies and European governments, which could turn into another headwind for the struggling euro. As if the euro doesn't have enough on its plate, the hawkish pivot by the Fed has widened the US/Europe rate differential and sent the euro tumbling in recent weeks. With the Fed poised to raise rates by 0.50% next week and further super-size rate hikes on the table, the euro appears on track to drop to 1.03, and parity has become a realistic possibility. 1.0553 is a weak support line. Below, there is support at 1.0411 There is resistance at 1.0657 and 1.0728
by OANDA
NZ dollar drops to 22 month-lowThe misery continues for the New Zealand dollar, which is down almost 1% on Thursday. NZD/USD has fallen below the 0.65 level and has plunged 6.54% in the month of April. ANZ Business Confidence was unchanged in April, with a reading of -42.0. That means close to half of New Zealand businesses are pessimistic about the economic outlook over the next 12 months. The problems identified by businesses are nothing new, with shortages in materials and workers and inflation driving up costs. New Zealand inflation hit 6.9% in Q1, a 30-year high. In addition to the surge in inflation, businesses expect inflation to continue to rise - in April, inflation expectations rose to 5.9%, up from 5.5% in March. The upside risk in inflation expectations is a paramount concern for the RBNZ, which faces a massive battle in wrestling inflation to lower levels. Today's weak Business Confidence report will exacerbate those worries and will support aggressive rate tightening from the RBNZ in order to get a handle on spiralling inflation. A back-to-back hike of 0.50% at the May meeting is a strong possibility. Even with the RBNZ in aggressive mode, the US dollar continues to pummel its New Zealand counterpart. The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver another half-point hike at next week's meeting and has hinted at more oversize rate hikes in order to curb high inflation. US Treasury yields are moving higher, which is supporting the US dollar rally. Yields rose on Thursday, even though US GDP surprised with a contraction in Q1, the first negative growth recorded since the pandemic recession in 2020. NZD/USD has broken below the 0.6504 line. Next, there is support at 0.6381 There is resistance at 0.6569 and 0.6692
by OANDA
BITCOIN TODAY - Very Weird Market Conditions 😾 Hi everyone, many news today: dollar killing it despite the Negative Advanced GDP today. I am certainly not a happy bunny today since I am attempting to go short on USDJPY (It should drop next). Markets doing just fine (the good news) after META and other major stocks released good earning reports. Situation in Ukraine remains scary and hopefully ends, or at least remains in Ukraine without escalating. Bitcoin: BTC Dominance is in 'slow death' mode, going sideways while Altcoins still have more losses. Scary. Let us know your thoughts and what you expect from the markets, your opinions. Things will be clearer again soon- and hopefully more green than red. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
by FX_Professor
U.S. Dollar Index Weekly TA : 04.27.22As you can see, the next target of the dollar index has been reached and is now trading in the 103 range. Note that this range is the highest level in the last 5 years and we have to see if the high inflation in the United States can cause the break of this 5-year resistance level or not ... Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 04.27.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
TVC:DXY
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
Pound shrugs as UK GDP revised upwardsThe British economy performed better than expected in the fourth quarter. Final  GDP rose by 1.3% in Q4 of 2021, upwardly revised from the first quarterly estimate of a 1.0% gain. Final GDP beat the forecast of 1.0%. On an annualized basis, GDP in 2021 jumped 7.4%, a massive turnaround from -9.3% in 2020. The economy has almost completely recovered from the pandemic, with GDP currently only 0.1% below the pre-Covid level in Q4 of 2019. The recovery is certainly good news, but there are dark clouds nearby, namely, soaring energy prices and the spectre of stagflation. BoE Governor Bailey had a stark warning for consumers this week, saying that real incomes would suffer a "historic shock". The BoE has raised interest rates three consecutive times, but this hasn't slowed down inflation, which accelerated to 6.2% in February, a 30-year high. The Bank says the Ukraine war could push inflation as high as 8% in Q2 and even higher in the third quarter. It seems that double-digit inflation is a real possibility later this year, which would truly be a nightmare scenario for Governor Bailey and Finance Minister Rishi Sunak. The BoE doesn't have a magic answer for surging inflation, which has also reached the US and other major economies. The BoE, can, of course, hike interest rates in order to subdue inflation, but the danger is that high rates could choke off economic growth. Governor Bailey has a formidable challenge of charting out a rate-tightening cycle in which interest rates are high enough to lower inflation but don't derail the recovery. Time will tell if Bailey will "get it right" with the pace and size of upcoming rate hikes. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.3281 and 1.3380 There is support at 1.3102 and 1.3022
by OANDA
NZD extends gains ahead of GDP, Fed raises ratesThe New Zealand dollar has extended its gains for a second straight day. NZD/USD is trading just above the 0.68 line in the North American session. As expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2018. Fed Chair Powell said he expects inflation to start to ease and that the Fed had a plan to raise rates during the course of the year. Today's lift-off is just the start of a rate-tightening cycle, but it remains unclear just how fast a pace the Fed will take towards normalization. The markets have priced in six rate hikes during the year, but this projection may have to be scaled back due to the tremendous turbulence in the financial markets. The war in Ukraine has injected plenty of volatility into the financial markets. We've seen risk apprehension subside when there has been talk of a ceasefire, only to rise back up when the fighting continued. Today's reports are more encouraging, with the warring sides apparently working on a detailed plan to end the fighting, which would include Ukraine declaring neutrality. An announcement of a ceasefire would raise risk appetite and likely give a boost to the New Zealand dollar. New Zealand releases GDP for Q1 later today, with a gain of 3.2% YoY expected. This follows a dismal third quarter, which saw the economy, which was hampered by Covid restrictions contract by 3.2%. A strong gain could extend the New Zealand dollar's current upswing. NZD/USD has support at 0.6763 and 6716 There is resistance at 0.6893 and 0.6974
by OANDA
2
Pound falls, US inflation jumpsGBP/USD has reversed directions on Thursday, giving up most of the gains from a day earlier. In the North American, session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3132, down 0.41% on the day. In the US, headline CPI continued to accelerate, with a gain of 7.9% for February YoY. This matched the forecast and was up from 7.5% beforehand. With inflation running close to 8%, a rate hike is a virtual given at next week's Federal Reserve meeting. What happens after that is less clear, as the Fed has to worry about stagflation, given the massive upswing in oil prices. The markets had priced in six rate hikes this year, but the turbulence due to the Ukraine crisis and the staggering rise in oil prices will translate into the Fed being more cautious about future rate hikes. Earlier today, a meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine earlier today did not result in any breakthroughs, although the sides agreed to continue to meet. The fighting continues, and with the Russian invasion force appearing to have stalled, there are fears that Russian President Putin could double down in frustration and hit more civilian targets. This would exacerbate the massive humanitarian crisis due to the Russian invasion, which has already affected millions of Ukrainians. The markets will be treated to a data dump from the UK on Friday. The highlights include the January reports for GDP and Manufacturing Production. GDP is expected to jump 9.3% YoY, following a 6.5% gain in December. Manufacturing Production is forecast to accelerate to 3.1%, compared to 1.3% beforehand. Strong readings would be further indication that the UK economy continues to improve, with the next BoE rate meeting just a week away. GBP/USD has broken through support at 1.3146. Below, there is support at 1.3057 There is resistance at 1.3249 and 1.3380
by OANDA
1
Pound falls, US inflation jumpsGBP/USD has reversed directions on Thursday, giving up most of the gains from a day earlier. In the North American, session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3132, down 0.41% on the day. In the US, headline CPI continued to accelerate, with a gain of 7.9% for February YoY. This matched the forecast and was up from 7.5% beforehand. With inflation running close to 8%, a rate hike is a virtual given at next week's Federal Reserve meeting. What happens after that is less clear, as the Fed has to worry about stagflation, given the massive upswing in oil prices. The markets had priced in six rate hikes this year, but the turbulence due to the Ukraine crisis and the staggering rise in oil prices will translate into the Fed being more cautious about future rate hikes. Earlier today, a meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine earlier today did not result in any breakthroughs, although the sides agreed to continue to meet. The fighting continues, and with the Russian invasion force appearing to have stalled, there are fears that Russian President Putin could double down in frustration and hit more civilian targets. This would exacerbate the massive humanitarian crisis due to the Russian invasion, which has already affected millions of Ukrainians. The markets will be treated to a data dump from the UK on Friday. The highlights include the January reports for GDP and Manufacturing Production. GDP is expected to jump 9.3% YoY, following a 6.5% gain in December. Manufacturing Production is forecast to accelerate to 3.1%, compared to 1.3% beforehand. Strong readings would be further indication that the UK economy continues to improve, with the next BoE rate meeting just a week away. GBP/USD has broken through support at 1.3146. Below, there is support at 1.3057 There is resistance at 1.3249 and 1.3380
by yesfish
1
Yen posts gains despite weak dataJapan's factory output declined for a second consecutive month as supply disruptions continue to take a toll on manufacturing. Industrial production for January fell 1.3% m/m, worse than the consensus of -0.7%. There was no relief from retail sales for January, which dropped 1.9% m/m, compared to the forecast of -1.2%. Covid health restrictions contributed to the drop in consumer spending. The weak data will weigh on GDP for the first quarter, which is still expected to show a small gain. Inflation has risen but still remains below the BoJ's target of 2%, which means that the central bank can be expected to continue its loose monetary stance, at a time when most major central banks are tightening policy. The crisis in Ukraine could further muddy the outlook for the county's fragile economy. Oil has pushed above the 100-dollar level and a disruption in Russian oil deliveries to world markets will send oil prices even higher, which will raise prices and dampen consumer spending. The war in Ukraine continues, although there was a small ray of hope as Russian and Ukrainian officials met today for face-to-face talks for the first time since the Russian invasion. The crisis has shaken the financial markets and the Russian ruble plunged over the weekend in response to tough sanctions from Western countries. Along with the US dollar, the yen has been an attractive safe-haven asset for panicky investors who have been dumping riskier holdings. USD/JPY has held steady since the crisis began, unlike the other majors which have buckled under the weight of the US dollar as risk appetite has dampened. USD/JPY has support at 114.71. Next, the 100-DMA at 114.37 is providing support There is resistance at 116.06 and 116.59
by OANDA
FEDFUNDS severely lagging inflationNormally, when inflation is high, the Federal Reserve will increase the FEDFUNDS rate which discourages banks borrowing money in order to fund investments. This in turn discourages lending and generally increases borrowing costs across the economy - including borrowing costs for the national debt. When you subtract it from the YoY inflation numbers, you can see inflation before and after a government response. Notice in the 70s, inflation peaked before the FED kicked into gear and raised rates. Today, we are at a much higher inflation before a FED response. You would think if they wanted to respond, they would have earlier than the they did in the 70s, but today, it is later. Why? I think they are trying to gain control over inflation through talk only. When rates go up, so do interest payments and we'll see a systemic collapse of asset prices / GDP, and in turn government revenue followed by insolvency. Good luck, FED.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by rrmhearts
31
Canadian dollar yawns despite solid GDPThe Canadian dollar is flat on Wednesday, trading at 1.2685 in the North American session. Canada's GDP outperformed in November, but the positive news wasn't enough to move the sleepy Canadian dollar. GDP expanded by 0.6%, above the consensus of 0.4%. The growth was broad-based across the economy and GDP has now pushed above its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. However, December is expected to be weaker, as the Omicron wave resulted in strict health restrictions which hampered economic growth. The BoC projected Q4 growth of 5.7% in October, but CIBC is forecasting growth above 6%. The strong November GDP provides support for the BoCs hawkish stance, with a strong likelihood that the BoC will raise rates at the policy meeting on March 2nd. Federal Reserve Chair Powell admitted last week that the Fed was undecided about future monetary policy. A March lift-off is a virtual certainty, but after that, the markets are in the dark about the Fed's intentions. This has led to wide-ranging projections of the number of hikes in 2022, with estimates as low as three and as high as seven. If inflation does not show a marked drop in the coming months, I would expect to see the Fed implement five or more rate hikes this year in order to wrestle inflation down towards the Fed target of 2%. The lack of guidance from the Fed has led to plenty of speculation about the Fed's plans. Chair Powell will need to improve his communication with the markets as to future monetary policy; otherwise, we can expect the financial markets to exhibit strong volatility as investors hunt for clues about potential rate moves. . USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2857 and 1.2948 There is support at 1.2615 and 1.2464
by OANDA