guessy goldy what? ... yep.. another flaaaaaag... heres another flag, which (im hoping) will be a nice ride to 1924 .. no, not the year.. were not in a plutonium powered delorian.. $ .. good ole dixie notes
GC
GC Bearish flag... again!must be pirates doing all the trading.. so may flaggies.. heres another one.. hopefully those pesky pirates will drop the poley woley.. should hopefully end up where the bars pattern (pink fake bars) end 1898.98 (i know .. lots of 9's and 8's.. it is what it is trollops! :p) .. hopefully another fun trip down south..
if these pesky pirates keep travelling south theyre gonna end up in australia having sold all their gold! .. silly billies!
dont trade if youre rubbish at self control and money management.. not really a good idea.. is it?
nope.. it is most definitely not ;)
gold daily update 3= do you seen gold new buy pinbar ???i dont advice buy now, but advice sell near 2000 and hold it 15 day until 1925 (SL=2020)
and buy near 1925 and hold it 30 day to new high near 2100
wish you win
Gold's struggle ahead?In the last article, we expressed a bullish bias for gold in the long term. However, we also noted that we could not ignore certain worrying signs that were putting us on a high alert in the short term; in particular, we mentioned 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA closing the gap and low volume accompanying the price higher. Since then, the price of gold has slumped from $2,027 to $1,955, representing approximately a 3.5% decline.
At the moment, a significant development we are closely tracking is whether the 20-day SMA drops beneath the 50-day SMA; if yes, then it will bolster the bearish case in the short-term/medium-term. Besides that, we also pay close attention to the support levels at $1,959 and $1,952; if the price breaks below them, it will be bearish for the short term. Contrarily, if the supports halt the selling pressure, it will be positive for gold. As for some other developments on the daily chart, we are watching RSI and MACD, which are both bearish; in fact, MACD broke below the midpoint, which suggests more downside for the short-term. Consequently, we stay on high alert.
In regard to the price target on the downside, we abstain from setting one as we deem it difficult to assess. But, in our opinion, the $1,925 or $1,900 (and potentially even $1,875) price tags are not out of reach. Because of that, we think it is still prudent to wait for a better price and stay on the sidelines.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. Yellow arrows indicate gold’s failures to overtake all-time highs.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bearish
Weekly = Neutral/Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
GOLD 4hour = all pro traders eye on red trendline AC indicator on daily chart now is full red and going to turn green (this mean if low not break we will see up trend soon) check AC on daily chart
3 scenario possible for gold for coming week
30% 1-2 day range then go down to 1925 (we must buy there and hold it 30-40 day) then start up trend
or
40% go up and touch red trendline then go down to 1925 ....then go up
or
20% go up wild to fibo 61% 2030 even upper to 2080 area
wish you win my friends,,,like always for pick position wait for PINBAR VERFY on gold
Gold Update (weekly Chart)Gold today broke through the flag bottom at 1985, so the seasonal effect is in play. I have three targets as of now: 1947.63, the pivot point of the weekly chart flag pole; 1924.60, the mid-point of the flag poll; 1921.6, the Gann confluence line (which would also be the base of the prior flag last year).
I see 1924 to 1921 as the likely target. If we had a sell off like last year, we would be looking at a low in the 1700 range -- highly unlikely. If that happened, I would load up the boat.
I am still bullish on gold long term, the macro elements are undeniable.
gc short move.. contiuation from previous move.bear flag/pennant breach - target is length of flag pole
Gold reaffirms its position of "safe heaven"In the current financial landscape, gold continues to emerge as a resilient asset, demonstrating impressive growth year to date. With an 11% increase in value thus far, gold's performance surpassed last year's modest 1.3% gain during the same period. This remarkable appreciation can be attributed to a combination of multiple factors, including economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and investor sentiment. As the world grapples with these challenges, gold continues to solidify its position as a safe haven for investors seeking stability and a hedge against financial turbulence. Moreover, the ongoing strength of this precious metal reaffirms its enduring appeal as a strategic investment choice in an unpredictable global economy.
While we maintain a bullish stance on gold in the long term, we must also consider the potential impact of stock market fluctuations on gold prices. As seen in previous instances, a weakening stock market can weigh on the price of gold, much like it did last year. With this in mind, we believe it would be prudent for investors to wait for a significant pullback in the price before adding more to their positions.
In our previous article, we highlighted the deviation of gold's price from its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which could have foreshadowed a retracement toward this indicator. Since then, the price has remained highly volatile, yet it has failed to retrace toward the 50-day SMA; in fact, the price and 50-day SMA have been gradually closing this gap. Nevertheless, we will continue to closely monitor key metrics, such as the 50-day and 20-day SMAs, along with trading volume, which has been declining since May 4th, 2023, when gold nearly broke above an all-time high. The decreasing volume is not particularly bullish and puts us on high alert.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The red arrow shows declining volume since 4th May 2023.
Technical analysis
Daily = Neutral
Weekly = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
GC HnS shortHead and Shoulders pattern identified, so short established at 2048 at uptrend breach fri 5th may.
price annoyingly breached resistance at 2020 so had to hedge orders back up to 2046. further shorts were added from 2040.
im expecting the price to reach at least between 1984-1987 area although i do think it may well over shoot before a pull back from that target area. if the price pulls back and PA indicates a down move, i may add shorts to target 1975-1978 area but will have to see how things pan out
Gold Bugs Squished?I've been talking about Gold COMEX:GC1! hitting a major high for my last two Livestreams (catch them Friday at 4pm Eastern after the market close). The current price action warrants a standalone post.
Each Livestream for many months has had at least one person ask what I thought about Gold. It was very simple: Gold was trending UP to test the major Monthly highs. In many of my social market chats about two weeks ago my gold bug friends began getting very excited. I urged caution. Price MUST break the high and confirm the breakout before getting long at this major Resistance Level. Now it looks as of gold price is respecting this monthly high from the last few years.
To be contrarian I had to short Gold (using AMEX:GLD ) based upon a Spike setup from Friday May 5th's high. Last week price pulled back and "should have gone" to retest and break the high. It did not and returned back inside the range. This sets up a short. I also know from taking market sentiment that a lot of traders may have gotten a bit overly optimistic. This could setup for a good pullback to at least the 1850 Level.
Gold Futures (GC) Weekly is Bull Flagging, But.....Gold is currently in a flag similar to that experienced last March and April. Last year's flag broke down, very unusual for this formation (normally it is a continuation pattern). Most likely the breakdown can be explained by the strong ramp up in the dollar index last year. Also, gold seasonality is usually weakest starting in April - June.
This flag is very tight, and being very near the all time high of 2089.20 at the flag peak of 2085.4 -- so I am biased in thinking that this flag may not reverse, even should DXY show strength. Of course, there are numerous geopolitical and other macro events which can have a positive effect on gold, if they create uncertainty.
Key areas to watch. A break below 1985.60 and hold and it will signal another flag breakdown. A break above and hold of 2085.40 (flag peak) and it signifies a bull flag continuation. These are simple areas to watch and are significant.
gold 4 hour say:break red line is new sell signal ICHIMOKU on my chart is for daily chart ,,,,it not important on gold (break trend is king on gold) , ,,,but i want show you 1925 is down target
ALERT= on news gold can go up , so put SL on last highs
dont pick buy until 1925 area ,,,,buy now is very dangrous ,,,,if you have buys,put SL in today low
if you have sell, wait 4-5 day,dont close soon
wish you win ,,,,keep wach AC indicator on daily chart ,,,,it say downtrend will start(if last high not break)
Joe G2H - Selling Gold, huge reversal on the dailyTrade Idea: Selling Gold
Reasoning: Major reversal on the daily.
Entry Level: 2034
Take Profit Level: 2003.75
Stop Loss: 2048
Risk/Reward: 2.1/1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
GOLD Update (weekly chart)Do you see how well those Gann fans squared work? -- Gold consolidates at the Gann confluence and either flags to resume is present path along its Gann ray, or it puts in a reversal at the Gann confluence (the crisscrosses of the fan lines). It most often resumes its path along the fan rays.
I currently have two possible paths for gold.
The first possibility is a fallback from the current level to around 1951.5 on 8/23/23 (downward sloping red arrow). From there. I could see an upward resumption to 2035.5 by 12/26/23. I have two questions about this scenario:
1) Will gold this year follow its historical seasonal tendencies? I'm speaking of gold in US dollars. If gold follows its historical seasonality, it should sell off during the summer months. Historically (from 2004 to 2022) the percentage gold has closed higher each month is as follows: May (47%), June (42%), July (63%), August (63%), Sept (42%). The fourth quarter has historically been bullish for gold. Given this pattern, we would see a selloff around May and June.
2) Is there anything "normal" about this year? We have escalating financial banking stress, potential budget standoffs, geopolitical tensions, and geopolitical forex coalitions being formed. None of these augment well for stability.
The second possibility, shown by the upward sloping arrow, is that given current macro tensions, gold will continue its current path and reach 2237 by 12/26/23, and 2407 by 4/29/24. This scenario makes the most sense, from a macro event perspective, as well as the "geometric construct" of the chart -- the current trend should continue to follow along the current ray, which is also aligned to the purple colored Gartley 1.618 extension (which ends at 2407) which is drawn from a starting point of September 2018 (which coincidentally, happens to be the last belt tightening period of the FED).
The current point & figure objective is 2596 and is taken from the stockcharts.com P&F chart using a three box construct and based on ATR 14 (you should always use ATR on a P&F chart for commodities like gold).
I am in the camp for the second scenario, I believe gold should be around 2237 by year end and around 2407-2596 by April of 2024.
Gold resistance - testing back below 2klast week was the first weekly close below 2k in GC since the recent breakout. Weekly chart highlights the multi-year range, big question is whether sellers have enough to re-take control of near-term trends this week. I don't doubt that Gold can prod a lasting move above 2k, I just don't think that'll happen until the Fed pivots and I'm not expecting that while Core CPI > 5%.
Am tracking a series of resistance levels overhead, 2008 near-term, 2023 above that. 2037, 2049 above that
supports 1980, 1954 and then 1944
next week is FOMC and ECB
Gold In a Longterm Wave 5 Uptrend DXY weakness translates into strong gold and now with fears of dollar losing reserve status and Russia buying record amount of Gold, there is a confluence of indicators suggesting now is a good time to be long gold over the next year or two
Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels ScalpSilver's price action has been curious, as it started to drop suddenly right at the beginning of February. Lost 5% in a day, in fact.
Gold took a little bit longer to move, and notably dumped on a much smaller magnitude.
I have an open call from mid-January that gold is likely to correct, and it appears to be coming to fruition:
Gold GC1 - Discard Greed, Enjoy the Tranquility of Rationality
The thesis being that the Nasdaq and tech will moon...
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for Permabears
And as it does, metals will dump, and once the stock market is exhausted then the pump cycle will rotate back into metals, and things will really go.
All that being said, I believe that based on Silver's price action that it's dumped for the purpose of short trapping and liquidating longs and is about to make another move up before silver really starts to head down.
A warning on China
Since January 10, the Chinese Communist Party has claimed that there has been 0.00 new Wuhan Pneumonia/COVID-19 cases. This comes after news that the country was absolutely sacked by the pandemic after Xi Jinping threw away the disastrous COVID-Zero social credit lockdown blunder. The after effects were so significant that countries like South Korea were suddenly blanketed in difficult-to-explain smog , which may very well have come from mainland cremation furnaces being on full blast.
What this tells you is that at any moment, any bullish impulse in markets-at-large can be interrupted by big time pandemic problems, up to and including the USSR-style fall of the CCP. So you have to be careful, and you have to be prepared.
Mainstream media is not going to alert you that there's any problems with their darling erstwhile model of the world they want to create: the Chinese Communist Party. They'll leave you ignorant until the disaster is sprung on you like a cantilever and you'll be the one who suffers the regrets.
If you have heavy long positions you should really hedge with 60+ day 10% OTM puts on the indexes/index ETFs.
The call
To understand silver, we have to look at the long term price action.
Monthly
We're dealing with a _very_ wide dealing range between $30 and $12~. '22's low of the year was only $17.50, and any very very bearish scenario below that could see as low as $13.
I have reservations that we see $13. I think that in reality a bear impulse on silver might only go as low as $15, and not for very long.
On weekly bars, the present situation is more obvious.
Weekly
We're dealing with a 10+% pullback with both a trendline and the $25 algorithmic/psychological operation figure that went untouched. Not only did $25 go untouched, but they set a double top there before the curiously-timed dump that gold did not follow.
Thus, I believe that what the market makers have set up to do is to raid the $25.50 level, perhaps in the period around Tuesday's CPI and into the end of February, before silver retreats back towards $18.
The iShares Silver Trust $SLV likewise set a double top, failing to raid the previous daily high by 2 cents.
All the stars are aligning, so to speak, and makes a fine trade long over $25 in anticipation of a Lyft-style fakey trendline breakout:
LYFT - Buy the Dip, Ride the Lift
$22 --> $25.5 is close enough to 15% and in a time horizon that should manifest before February is out.
This play will also knock out a ton of short sellers, while bringing in a lot of momentum traders who like to buy highs.
The MMs may also use this to drag in the fools who think that the USD is done and that their bullion will reign supreme, despite us living in an era when every central bank wants to install its own digital currency and its own CCP-style social credit system.
And thus, if this pump does manifest, you have to mind your greed. Over $25 is a sell and you want to see big manipulation to the downside, because when this Party is very close to being finished, $50+ silver is legitimately coming.
Gold - $2,000 Is ImminentGood news for goldbugs: GC Gold futures is projected to take out $2,000.
Bad news for goldbugs: I still believe that both price action and fundamentals are short/medium-term bearish on gold and that this swing will amount to an exit pump before lower prices forecast in the below post are achieved.
Gold GC1 - Discard Greed, Enjoy the Tranquility of Rationality
I also believe that Silver is about to rip over $25 for roughly the same reason
Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels Scalp
And oil to $88
WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $5
Some key fundamentals on gold is that the Chinese Communist Party has been accumulating. I've heard that central banks tend to accumulate gold when their economy is in severe trouble and they want to make a bad situation look good. This is also a classic play in the CCP toolkit, trying to appear as if everything is great and the Party is very smart and stable even as tens of millions of citizens and technicians have died from the pandemic.
Another reason for amassing gold is to convert foreign reserves/national currency into something they can trade for oil on the dark market.
The CCP is not in a good situation. If you look at the stats the Party is reporting, they say that Wuhan Pneumonia (COVID) has totally disappeared from the country since Jan. 10. Not a single case, not a single death in two months, if you believe what the least credible regime on the planet has to say, at least, it's really a miracle.
But you should never believe anything the CCP says. The Party is addicted to lying.
There's data that says the Shanghai vault saw 140 tonnes leave in January, the largest withdrawal since 2018.
Some analysis says the CCP has over 4,300 tonnes of gold in reality, twice as much as they report, making them the second largest holder behind the United States.
So this tells us that the US is the market maker and the CCP, a crumbling regime that is the government of the one country everyone wants to seize control of, has decided to take a huge position, and at relatively high prices.
There's good reason to believe, then, that the US has +alpha to be gained from dumping gold. But first, the MM and its custom algorithms need to take out the shortsellers who have stops above the $1,975 pivot and the buyers who will go long over the $2,000 psychological level while dreaming of a new all time high.
The CCP is going to fall soon. But the skeletons in its closet from the 23.5 year long persecution and genocide against Falun Gong linger like a guillotine over not only its head, but over the heads of all the governments and corporations that have supported the Party and helped it to survive all these years.
This means that the wish for China's opponents is to ensure a controlled demolition of the Party so that the truth of what's been going on all these years can be buried.
The problem with getting ahead of ourselves based on last week's price action in terms of a long is that it's the beginning of the month and gold already went up 3%.
So, in my opinion, I'm looking for a pullback into the $1,820 range to go long and with a target slightly over $2,000. Time horizon is by early April.
Monthly candles show that February was an outside bar:
Daily <--> 4H <--> 1H candles show that February took out its low of the month right at the end of the month as well.
So ultimately, I expect the February low to hold, so long as I'm reading it right and price action is actually bullish, and so long as the fundamentals overall are actually bearish.
And there's no reason to be immediately bearish. Although price was rather abruptly rejected at $1,975, on the way up, there were no pivots or imbalances created. The pivot was just drawn at $1,810~. We can tell this because last week's candle was also an outside bar.
What I'm thinking is going to happen is that $2,000 will be achieved to clear out shorts and to trap breakout longs and hysterical top buyers.
After that, the US market maker will dump metals hard to put greater economic pressure on Xi Jinping's PBOC and CCP as the world attempts to make the Party fall so that they can invade China and establish globalism, which will lead to real worldwide communism.
Think of dumping metals as something of a soft sanction against China and Russia.
The idea of globalism is to have the CCP's social credit scheme become standardized everywhere on the planet, and then humanity will live in a two class system: one where there is a very small group of Gates/Clinton-type elites who lord from their "holy" ivory towers over a very large garbage dump of slaves scurrying around for scraps.
This is the plan. But over the very long course of history, a lot of governments and organizations have attempted to take over the world. World government has never worked out, and has always ended in disaster. Disaster, followed by a change of scenery.
This is why we find buildings from old cultures at the bottom of the ocean and buried in the Earth.
Be careful, and good luck.
GC Trade UpdatesRecap on my position on the GOLD (GC) that I have in my portfolio with the physically replicated ETC XAD1 on the Frankfurt stock exchange.
From WS Italy:
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodities Strategy at Saxo Bank, said:
“Overall, we expect a favorable 2023 for the gold market, supported by recession and equity market devaluation risks: an eventual peak in central bank rates combined with the prospect of a weaker dollar and inflation that does not return to the expected level of less than 3% within the year. Furthermore, the de-dollarisation observed by several central banks last year, when a record amount of gold was bought, looks set to continue.
As often happens, the market has already “discounted” even if specifically it would be better to say “appreciated” what happened in the previous months, the threat of recession, and above all the recent banking crisis of SVB and Credit Suisse (imminent acquisition by UBS) .
All in all, I think it’s time to rebalance a position in profit of almost 10%.
I will take home part of the profits, aware of the fact that, as said by the analyst, gold could still go up. We are not talking about an index, but a commodity, which has historically exceeded 2000$ an ounce and has even dropped significantly.
I sell part of the position waiting for better times for other purchases.
As always, I leave you with Warren Buffett‘s quote: “We simply try to be afraid when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are afraid”
Keep moving forward!
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
Gold (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave Bullish Sequence Favors HigherGold (XAUUSD) broke above the previous peak on February 2, 2023 at 1959.74. It shows a bullish sequence from 9.28.2022 low favoring further upside. A 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 9.28.2022 low targets 2148 – 2360 to the upside. Near term, cycle from 2.28.2023 low is currently in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 2.28.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 1858.33 and dips in wave 2 ended at 1809. The metal extends higher again in wave 3 towards 2009.75. The 1 hour chart below shows pullback in wave 4 ended at 1933.90.
Wave 5 higher is now in progress with subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from 4, wave ((i)) ended at 2003.28 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 1943.70. Up from there, wave (i) ended at 1987.57, wave (ii) ended at 1949.30. Gold then extends higher in wave (iii) towards 2032.13 and dips in wave (iv) is proposed complete at 2000.50. Expect Gold to extend higher in wave (v) to complete wave ((iii)), then it should pullback in wave ((iv)) before the rally resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 1933.64 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
Gold decoupling from stocks is a positive signOn Monday, gold broke above $2 000, making a new high at $2 009.85. Unfortunately, gold erased its gains the next day and plunged as low as $1 934.34. Although this drop did not last long either, and after the FOMC, gold skyrocketed back above $2 000. Currently, it trades near the $1 990 price tag. In the long term, we continue to be bullish on XAUUSD. However, we expect it to remain highly erratic as investors might cash out their profits in order to cover their losses in the stock market (once the selloff speeds up). Therefore, we will closely monitor gold’s price action in the following days; seeing gold decoupling from the stock market will be a positive sign.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also displays simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bullish
Weekly = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
ASIA: GBPCAD - BOBBI/REVERSAL - MOMENTUMBreak out break back in with momentum shift. Failure to make new high and broken trend line. Lets see if it plays out
