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** GBPUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
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GBP/USD Extends Recovery on Upbeat UK Retail SalesGBP/USD Extends Recovery on Upbeat UK Retail Sales, Targets Set for Further Bullish Momentum
The GBP/USD pair continues its recovery on Friday, propelled by the positive impact of robust UK Retail Sales data for November. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported surprising resilience in households' retail spending, defying expectations of a sharp decline. The upbeat sales figures were driven by a notable 2.8% surge in non-food retail stores, buoyed by significant discounts during the Black Friday Sale.
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
As forecasted in our previous analysis, the GBP/USD price remains firmly within a bullish uptrend.
This week, the price experienced a rebound precisely within the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci levels area, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
The current outlook suggests the potential for a new swing in bullish momentum, targeting 1.27930 as the initial upside objective.
Impact on Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy:
The robust Retail Sales data for November is likely to affirm the Bank of England's (BoE) commitment to its restrictive monetary policy stance.
The growth rate in wages continues to outpace the necessary threshold to bring down inflation to the 2% target.
Strong consumer spending, supported by higher wages, challenges the narrative of a clear downtrend in price pressures.
Market Sentiment and Future Considerations:
The positive momentum in GBP/USD reflects not only domestic economic resilience but also the impact of attractive discounts during the Black Friday Sale.
Traders are advised to monitor further economic releases and central bank communications for potential shifts in market sentiment.
The GBP/USD pair's trajectory remains bullish, with attention on achieving and sustaining the forecasted target of 1.27930.
As market dynamics evolve, the GBP/USD pair's resilience and positive sentiment offer traders an optimistic outlook for further gains. Stay attuned to economic indicators and central bank developments for potential influences on the pair's future movements.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.25500 with targets at 1.27930 & 1.28500 in extension.
GBPUSD: Bullish Rebound Confirmed, Eyes Set on 1.28321In the intricate realm of global finance, the decisions and policies of major central banks wield considerable influence over currency markets. One such pivotal institution is the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, whose recent policy trajectory has had a discernible impact on the GBPUSD currency pair. This essay delves into the nuanced dynamics that unfolded in response to the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and its consequential effect on the GBPUSD exchange rate.
The Federal Reserve's Dovish Turn:
Central to this narrative is the Federal Reserve's decision to temper the pace of interest rate hikes. The Fed opted for a dovish stance, signaling a cautious approach towards tightening monetary policy. Powell's inclination towards dovishness, characterized by a reluctance to aggressively raise benchmark interest rates, marked a departure from more hawkish postures seen in the last year.
Impact on GBPUSD:
Commencing on December 14th, an observable surge in the GBPUSD exchange rate ensued, catapulting from 1.25002 to 1.27937. This substantial uptick was emblematic of market participants reacting to the Federal Reserve's dovish signals, with investors seeking higher-yielding assets in response to the diminished allure of the U.S. dollar. The relative attractiveness of the British pound against its American counterpart found favor among traders, contributing to the pronounced rise in the exchange rate.
Support Levels and Resilience:
While the GBPUSD pair experienced a subsequent correction, touching the support level at 1.26124, its resilience was noteworthy. The bounce back from this support level underscored the underlying strength and confidence in the pound, even in the face of corrective movements. This resilience is indicative of a market sentiment that continues to favor the British currency.
Future Trajectory: A Glimpse at 1.28321:
As the GBPUSD pair rides the waves of market sentiment and central bank policies, forecasts point towards a potential further ascent. The likelihood of the exchange rate climbing to 1.28321 is grounded in the persisting dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, which, if sustained, could continue to dampen the appeal of the U.S. dollar in comparison to other currencies.
Rejection at Support: Unleashing Bullish Momentum
In the 2-hour timeframe, GBPUSD witnessed a crucial rejection at the 1.26903 support level, signaling a robust defense by bulls. This pivotal event serves as a potent indicator of underlying strength, hinting at a potential shift in market sentiment and affirming the narrative of a bullish continuation.
Technical Analysis: Bullish Rejection Pattern
Beyond numerical significance, the rejection at 1.26903 represents a convergence of market forces. Buying interest surpassed selling pressure, forming a bullish rejection candlestick pattern. Traders interpreting this pattern would likely see it as a confirmation of the market's intent to resume its upward trajectory.
Continuation of Uptrend: Fueled by Resilience
Confirmation of the rejection aligns with GBPUSD's resilience amid corrective movements. Buoyant market sentiment, driven by the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, acts as a catalyst for renewed upward momentum. Surpassing the previous high of 1.27937 becomes critical, paving the way for an ascent towards the envisioned target of 1.28321. Traders armed with confirmation from the rejection may target this milestone in the ongoing bullish trend.
Risk Management: Navigating Uncertainties
While the support rejection supports a bullish outlook, prudent risk management remains crucial. Unforeseen geopolitical or economic developments could introduce volatility, necessitating vigilance. Traders must be mindful of stop-loss levels and stay attuned to evolving market conditions.
Conclusion:
In the dynamic realm of currency markets, the rejection at the support level of 1.26903 serves as a pivotal chapter in the ongoing saga of GBPUSD. It not only validates the resilience of the pound but also provides a technical confirmation for those seeking to ride the anticipated wave of bullish momentum. As the pair gears up for a potential ascent towards 1.28321, traders and analysts alike will closely monitor the evolving landscape, mindful of the delicate balance between opportunity and risk in the ever-shifting currents of the foreign exchange market.
GBPUSDGBPUSD was trading in descending parallel channel. The price was reacting well the support and resistance of descending channel.
Currently the price has given the breakout of channel and now retesting the broken level where it is also forming a local support zone and seems like the price may go for another leg higher.
If the breakout sustain to upside the optimum target could be 1.2850.
What you guys think of this idea?
GBPUSD Longs from 1.26500 or 1.25500This week's forecast for GBPUSD involves waiting for additional selling pressure to occur before considering buys around the two nearby demand zones I've identified (10-hour and 11-hour). Following the recent reaction from a 7-hour supply, as the price is currently descending, I am anticipating the exhaustion of selling pressure and the accumulation of price.
Upon confirmation of a Wyckoff accumulation, validated by a CHOCH within my demand zone, I will be prompted to initiate buy positions aligned with the prevailing bullish trend in GBPUSD. Additionally, there is notable liquidity to the upside, including engineered liquidity and untouched Asian highs.
Confluences for GBPUSD Buys are as follows:
- There are two demand zones (the 10hr and the 11hr) that price could react off.
- Lots of liquidity in the form of engineering liquidity and asian highs.
- This idea aligns with the temporary bullish trend that GU has generated.
- Selling pressure is slowly getting exhausted and is pending an accumulation.
- For price to continue going higher and create a new leg it must react off a near demand.
P.S. While acknowledging the temporary bullish trend in place, it's important to recognize the overall bearish trend for this pair. This implies that eventually, the price will reach a certain supply level, triggering a significant bearish movement. However, for the present moment, it's crucial to adapt and align with the current bullish trend.
GBPUSD Analysis. Swing trade signal. Hello everyone, i want share my idea about GBPUSD.
At this pair in my opinion we are still in bullish trend. couple day after this pair touch to weekly resistance, GBP start drop against dollar, fall but if we look past we see stronger buyers than sellers, which i think needs active, today European session open with short positions, if we look at lower timeframe we see price fall is strong after open session, but in my opinion that fall what we have is correction.
With my strategy i see some supports, for that i used Fibonacci toll which helped me for identify possible interest points and draw some scenes.
Scene 1 - price has reaction at 4h support where we will see strong buyers, they will continue trend and brake weekly resistance where this pair had strong reaction from sellers.
Scene 2 - price don't have reaction at 4h support it comes to daily support where buyers will active, it will make liquidity and continue trend.
Scene 3 - price coming Strong downside, don't have reaction at my marked levels and continue downside trend to retest weekly support. IN THIS SCENE I AM GETTING STOP!!
My setup for that trade.
Open Long position - 1.26040
Stop loss - 1.25270
Take profit - 1.28369
I am risking 2.5% of my deposit at the trade, if i will lose that trade i will be still alive for find another opportunity.
I am going to long that pair because i am strong bearish at dollar and their economic which i have published and i will link in this post.
ALWAYS MANAGE YOUR RISK!!!!!
GBPUSD H1 / BEARISH CHANNEL, OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER SHORT 📉Hello Traders!
This is my perspective for GBPUSD H1. I see a formation of a bearish channel and at the moment the chart confirms the retracement from the resistance level. I expect a strong bearish move until the liquidity level. Good opportunity to enter short!
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upDespite a slight dip on Friday, the GBPUSD charts remain poised for potential new highs. The aftermath of the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish pivot faced resistance from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, moderating rate cut expectations and emphasizing the central bank's commitment to tackling inflation.
In this dynamic landscape, both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained unchanged rates but conveyed distinct messages. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey struck a hawkish tone, highlighting that there's "still some way to go" in their inflation battle. In contrast, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at sufficiently restrictive monetary policy, introducing discussions about rate cuts, a notion later tempered by New York Fed President John Williams, deeming March rate cut talks as "premature."
On the UK front, December witnessed an overall improvement in business activity, barring manufacturing, which lingered in recessionary territory since July 2022.
As we gear up for the upcoming week, the UK's economic docket will unveil crucial inflation figures and retail sales. Simultaneously, across the pond, the week kicks off with housing data and consumer confidence until Wednesday, followed by the final GDP print, unemployment claims, Durable Goods Orders, and consumer sentiment from Thursday onwards.
Given these developments, how should we approach the week ahead from a technical standpoint?
GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound continue its trajectory and sustain its momentum above the $1.26000 zone? The stakes are high, and we're on the edge of our seats!
The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from both the US docket for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities.
In this video, we've analyzed the Daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure.
We are keeping a close eye on the potential range between $1.27350 and $1.26000 where a consolidation could happen before the next BIG move. It's a decisive structure where both sellers and buyers will be vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days.
Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading!
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
GBPUSD - D1\H4GBPUSD
D1 - Possible completion of the ABC structure, which may lead to further upward movement to the levels of 1.29082
H4 - A 3-wave structure has been formed, which can lead to further upward movement, targets which can be seen at 1.28340. It is also worth considering when fixing behind the trend line, there will be confirmation of the continuation of the upward structure.
What can you expect?
You can consider entering from these levels ~1.26973 with a target of 1.29082
Cancellation if the price breaks the minimum of the 2nd wave - 1.26400
Long
Target 1.27495 - 1.27813 - 1.28340 - 1.29082
GBPUSD trading strategy todayOn Wednesday, the GBPUSD fell sharply during the European session as UK inflation for November came in below expectations. The fresh weakness is expected to completely reverse Tuesday's gains and challenge key support at 1.2636. With the overall decline of the GBPUSD, bears are expected to test the starting point of the upward impulse waves. Subsequently, the bullish bias will still exist to keep the structure of "upward impulse waves" intact.
But the focus is now on the downside. As the Relative Strength Index in the 4H timeframe fell below 50 and below the lower limit of the long-term rising regression channel, reflecting a shift in the technical outlook to bearish.
On the downside, the 1.2600 level is now the first support level for the bullish market. A 4-hour close below this level could open the door to a further slide towards the 1.2550 level. It is recommended to go short at the highs.
GBP/USD: Technical Signals Point to Bearish Momentum Amidst...GBP/USD: Technical Signals Point to Bearish Momentum Amidst Inflation Data
The GBP/USD currency pair, after a robust performance on Tuesday, encountered a reversal on Wednesday, shedding over 50 pips during the early European session. The pair's current technical outlook indicates the potential development of bearish momentum.
As of now, the pair is undergoing a retest of the support area, specifically around the crucial 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Despite this retracement, our bias remains bullish, suggesting the possibility of a new successful long setup. The target for this bullish scenario is set at 1.27930, with further potential extension towards 1.28500.
Examining the economic landscape, the recent UK inflation data adds a layer of complexity to the currency pair's dynamics. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the UK showed a decline to 3.9% on a yearly basis in November, down from the October figure of 4.6%. This reading fell short of market expectations, which were positioned at 4.4%. Additionally, the Core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food prices, witnessed a decrease to 5.1% from October's 5.7%, also below analysts' predictions of 5.6%.
These inflation figures introduce a nuanced backdrop for GBP/USD, contributing to the ongoing market sentiment. Traders and investors will be closely monitoring the pair's movements, weighing technical signals against fundamental factors, as they navigate the evolving landscape of this currency pair.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.2500 with targets at 1.27930 & 1.28500 in extension.
BUY TRADE SETUP ON GBPUSDHey Traders,
Check out this technical analysis on GBPUSD.
GBPUSD is currently trading with bullish momentum by staying above the bullish trend line.
So anticipate a retest of the broken above the flag pattern and consider entering BUY positions.
Keep a close eye on this; it could play out in either direction.
GBPUSD: The dollar finds its footing as Fed officials downplay hThe dollar index and dollar index futures both traded flat during the Asian session on Tuesday, but marked strong recoveries from four-month lows over the past two sessions.
A series of Fed officials said that although the bank will cut interest rates in 2024, expectations of an imminent shift are unfounded.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the bank has not committed to cutting interest rates anytime soon and joined some other officials in pushing back expectations of a sudden drop in interest rates.
However, market valuations are suggesting a nearly 63% chance of a rate cut by March 2024.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts also said Tuesday that the central bank will cut interest rates five times by 2024, with the majority of the cuts coming in the first half of the year.
💡 GBPUSD: Continuing strong growth momentumING stated that the focus in the UK would be on the November CPI data released on Wednesday. Service inflation is anticipated to be 6.6%, suggesting a limited progression in inflation. This development is expected to prompt the market to reduce some of its speculations about a potential UK interest rate cut. Although services inflation in the UK is projected to decelerate to approximately 4% next summer, providing leeway for the Bank of England to initiate interest rate cuts, there remains an opportunity for the Pound to benefit from certain policy repricing in the short term.
Observing the H4 chart, GBP/USD appears to retreat from the overbought territory, with the MACD double line and histogram bar diminishing upward near the zero axis. The ongoing decline from the peak of 1.2795 is likely to lead to a corrective downturn in the short term; however, it is anticipated that the price will find support in the 1.2600 region.
You can set BUY LIMIT, stop loss is necessary.
GBP/USD Eyes Bullish Momentum on BoE's Hawkish StanceGBP/USD Eyes Bullish Momentum on BoE's Hawkish Stance
The GBP/USD pair maintains its positive momentum during the early European session on Monday, propelled by the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish stance. The central bank's commitment to a prolonged restrictive policy to bring inflation down is supporting the uptick in the pair.
Currently trading near 1.26650, the GBP/USD pair is situated around the critical 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This area is being closely watched for a potential swing continuation, and the price could find support around 1.26500, paving the way for a fresh bullish impulse.
However, the pair faces challenges from the possibility of a bearish action in Wall Street and additional hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve. These factors could contribute to USD resilience, limiting the GBP/USD's upward push.
Market participants will keep a keen eye on the upcoming release of the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, scheduled for Wednesday. This economic indicator could play a crucial role in determining the pair's trajectory in the days to come.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.2500 with targets at 1.27930 & 1.28500 in extension.
GBPUSD is still in a strong uptrendGBPUSD: The British pound also had a very good rally after yesterday's monetary policy announcement. GU broke through the previous resistance zone and created a positive uptrend. The number of buyers is overwhelming. The scenario for today's session is for GU to buy at 1.2700 and Citi to continue rising with hopes of buying at 1.2820.