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GAS

Again Waiting Downside Trend Resistance 1.870 to 1.920 level.Last week Price hit multi-year Support level 1.580$ and bounce back from multi-year support, Currently price hit long term downside trend resistance. Next, some month now Demand of Gas VERY LOW as Summer period starts, we will see come next week Price go back 1.510$ support 🛑SUPPORT/RESISTANCE ✅S1= 1.725 ✅S2=1.510 ✴️R1=1.840 ✴️R2=1.920 Please like, share, comments and follow me to get daily base analysis Thank you for your support, I appreciate it.
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by Allmypips
2
The "Future of the Gas Station? (Latin America)The "Future of the Gas Station”? (“Christ the Redeemer of Oil?”) One of the most beautiful (UNBELIEVABLY beautiful) and largest “mega cities” in the world which is also named one of the New Seven Wonders of the World is (in) the city of Rio de Janeiro. Perhaps the only other mega-city “city” on Earth that can come close to matching the natural amazing cliffs and crazy “year round” beautiful beaches of Rio de Janeiro is “Hong Kong” (there are many secret cities around the world that are better then Rio de Janeiro or Hong Kong for example along the Perl River or along Southern China or maybe someplace else hidden on Earth?) However, many larger cities are much much more expensive (Rent in Hong Kong for example is about 600% higher then in Rio de Janeiro and food prices in Hong Kong are are about 200% higher maybe even more if you dont trust the numbers??) Interestingly perhaps the “largest ever” oil corruption and fraud charges in the ENTIRE HISTORY of “ALL” of Latin America was quite recently (and is still going on to this day at least from the Brazilian stock market BOVESPA index’s perspective??). This was a major lawsuit that started at some “Gas Station” outside of Rio de Janeiro Brazil and centered around one of the largest oil companies in the world. At least 11 different countries where involved in the lawsuit for "corruption indictments" (even the United Stated SEC made off with $10’s of millions of dollars (cold cash) from this case?), at least 18 different companies where involved and 400+ people (criminals) involved with many going to jail for anywhere between 10 to 30 years of jail time and by some estimates something like R$6.2 billion (USD$2.5 billion) (which is about equivalent to price of construction of 10+ off shore oil rigs?). Even the president of Brazil was sentences to jail for 9 years and went to jail for about one full year+? What makes Rio de Janeiro especially beautiful and “amazingly religious” is a 600+ “ton” statue of “Christ the Redeemer” shining with “hands stretched open” above the mega metropolis of 10+ million people. The statue of Christ above Rio de Janeiro is truly one of the most amazing religious concepts that any modern megacity on earth lives and works under. The statue of Christ is so big and so fundamental that two thousand years from now it might still be there… it is a 600 ton god statue?! Perhaps its more often then we realize in Europe and North America, but religion is and has a very important key to Latin America (and many other cities on Earth). However, for Rio de Janeiro “god (apparently) is the key”? The giant statue of Christ the Redeemer atop Corcovado mountain looking down at everyone happens be one of the most stunning and most “godly” and fundamental religiously famous landmarks of our Earth? It one of the “wonders of the world?” One of the interesting things about the oil industry is that there is a lot of “suspicion” that everyone involved “maybe” is making a “ton” of money. Many people suspect the oil executives of being a type of “cult club”. Its possible that the corruption charges against Petrobras are “very complex” and even “creatively created” by a mastermind who understood the legal system and that they might have to “go to jail” just to convict everyone of what they are doing wrong anyway. In a lot of ways the (socialist “working class”) president of Brazil learned a very very important legal lesson after spending one year in jail and “getting out” and being “set free” after even contacting the United Nations Human Right Commission. The corruption maybe was with the legal system itself.. the judges? and Petrobras maybe wanted to see the Judges go to jail in addition to the president? However, the president was “popular” especially with labor activists and was eventually set free. The president was convicted of “money laundering” and “passive corruption”, defined in Brazilian criminal law as the receipt of a bribe by a civil servant or government official. Lula was sentenced to nine years and six months in prison and only served about one year. However, the president learned a very very important lesson about “doing things legally correctly” and maybe will even run for president again? (see many articles of news on this topic) So how does the “oil mafia” really work? How do we know if there really is such a thing as a “oil” corruption (problem) and how does this all actually work and do people really go to jail and get “busted”? What about the police operations in Brazil did they want some of this “oil” money too?? What was this Brazilian “Operation Car Wash?” And most importantly what can we do about all this? (for everyone!?) Whats the suggestions for Petrobras’s Future and the future of “oil” in Latin America? In the oil industry and in “big-time” obese operations world there is a term called “downstream”. Some companies get so chubby that they essentially dont need any of there sales stores that they actually sell their products in… in the oil industry a lot of companies “don't need gas stations” anymore so they “spin off” what is called their “downstream assets” and basically the gas stations are no longer part of the company. This allows for some “corruption”? However, there is good and bad sides to this, it makes it easy to “own a McDonald’s or Petrobras Gas Station franchise” but difficult to do anything “differently” or create “unique competition” with the financiers (the people with all the money) or the people that gave you the money at the top get “lazy” and want even more money from the Gas Stations. The law is typically behind the “money” and not the people who own and run the businesses day to day. A lot of these people are not use to “dealing with the legal system”. However, what happened in Brazil’s Oil Business was that someone working at a “gas station” might have “purposely” tried to “go to jail” just to get Petrobras “media light and attention” and then the real problem was actually something more “fundamental” to franchising and just being “reasonable”. The problem “with” Petrobras actually has to do with something called “franchising” and how gas stations all over the world really work. Imagine two possibilities a world where “everything is run by big oil business” or a world where there is a lot of independent smaller business. The problem is we need both and both sides say we only need that side. However, what if the problem is with wealth is maybe something “gravitational” or “universal”? Is there fundamental problems with ALL of capitalism? In the Communist Manifesto written by a Eastern European named “Karl Marx” believed that capitalism contained the seeds of its own destruction. He described how the wealth of the bourgeoisie depended on the working people (just like the people who actually work at these Petrobras McDonald (only franchise) Gas Stations) ... Eventually the proletariat (gas station worker) would lead a revolution against the bourgeoisie (Petrobras). The final struggle would lead to the overthrow of capitalism itself. Because the businesses (got too obese and fat) (and the governments that regulate them too) would just get too big and too powerful. For more then a few hundred years capitalism has hidden behind democracy… but what if? What if there was something really wrong? With both communism and capitalism then what? (we will not discuss that here.. however, there maybe some new political revolution needed that isn’t socialism, or capitalism or communism)? The art of franchising and “gas station-ering” maybe needs a “global overhaul”… the secret maybe isn’t in “more franchising” but allowing “greater freedom” and allowing independent business owners essentially to start their own unique businesses. And when we leave earth that all will get even more complected (this is the “transport” industry?) There are many detailed videos on corruption and “operations carwash” and it may help to hear what others have to say about this problem of “franchising”. Part of the key to understanding both sides of “real corruption” to understand “both sides” and even look into helping both sides solve those problems. It maybe that both sides wanted good? Even the Brazilian military “discovered” the problem in the first place? The head of Brazil's army wanted the president “behind bars”? and the New York Times even claimed "Brazil’s democracy is now weaker than it has been since military rule ended".. however, maybe the truth was different? Hope this helps you! Asher :)
NYSE:PBR
by idasuperman
Channel The Gas!*DISCLAIMER*-This is WEEKLY Chart- Not advisable to trade without an proper analysis. Not my fault if you traded and made a loss. It is not like trading on M15 or H4, ONE Candlestick is actually 1 week so it is long term trade. I will explain how to better catch the trade at correct level with no risk. The Natural Gas is in Channel, there has been multiple bounces on inside of channel trends. Price is approaching to support since 29th February 2019 where price has made the lowest low. There are support level where the 1st buy will be if price doesn't make it all the way to channel trendline likely in most case it will come short and go up. Lots of wicks incites that price has breaking out moment so breakouts can occurs at any time. Look for candlestick patterns like 3 Advancing Soldiers or Hikkake Pattern for an proper buying confimation BUT... If price has broken the support, it will be likely to bounce off channel trendline with candlestick pattern like Hammer, Bullish Harami, Morning (Doji) Stars Patterns and Long Lower Shadow. Please Google those candlestick pattern so you know what to look for once price are near to the key level for you to buy and hold over the weeks holding until the target is reached of around 3.0 - 4.5. This is just an idea, i will be following this and updating the progress as week goes by.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn4090857
Strong Bearish towards back Multi Year support 1.510$ Last week Price hit multi-year Support level 1.510$ and bounce back from multi-year support, Currently price hit long term downside trend resistance. Next, some month now Demand of Gas VERY LOW as Summer period starts, we will see come next week Price go back 1.510$ support 🛑SUPPORT/RESISTANCE ✅S1= 1.725 ✅S2=1.510 ✴️R1=1.840 ✴️R2=1.920 Please like, share, comments and follow me to get daily base analysis Thank you for your support, I appreciate it.
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by Allmypips
Apr 6 - A Short Look Ahead for Oil/UCOPrice is ranging right now within the green box. Support looks like it should hold. There may be larger powers at be that do not want crude to fall back below $25. Decent bounce off $2.50 support. I think it's safe to assume it'll hold for now. $2.78 resistance needs to break in order to continue trend upwards. Ultimately depends on the outcome of the OPEC meeting on the 9th. I believe they'll come up with a solution. It's either they do, or most of the economies around the world go into (deeper) failure.
AMEX:UCOLong
by OptiPulse
4
April 5 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 3-days of balance ($2460-$2525); declining volume; 20-day moving average; 4/2 Low of $2424.75. Technical: On 3/23, the market broke below $2270 (the bottom of a major balance area) and one time-framed higher through 3/26. For that week, multiple profile distributions resembled elongated p-profiles, indicative of short-covering activity. Market stopped one time-framing higher 3/27 and balanced $2525-$2630 with an attempt on Tuesday to break above the 20-day moving average. Market rejected the moving average, and snapped back to the top of a prior balance zone ($2460-$2525). With these past developments in mind, the market has been coming into balance over the past few weeks, digesting information, building value, shaking out weak hands. Aside from remaining in balance, the market could extend directionally, or extend and return to balance quickly. Taking out Thursday’s low of $2424.75, my immediate targets on the downside are $2400 and $2350. Upside targets include $2525, $2630, and gap near $2700. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: ‘The Rising Tide Lifts All The Boats’: Survey respondents “overwhelmingly positive about the present economic situation, with many feeling undeterred in their ability to repay debts and travel over the next year” (bit.ly). Update: Job security confidence up after CARES Act passage (bit.ly). ‘We Shall Overcome’: Fiscal stimulus introduced to “prevent mass homelessness, starvation and a wave of business closures not seen since the height of the Great Depression” (bit.ly). This comes on after the Fed compiled savings data showing that “40% of U.S. households would not be able to come up with $400 for an emergency expense" (bit.ly). The stimulus would ideally produce a “V-shaped recovery.” A CivicScience poll shows respondents “would spend a government stimulus payment on bills, necessities, and treats, rather than saving or investing the money” (bit.ly). Note On Distributions: IRS will begin depositing payments in April, but paper checks won't be mailed until the week of May 4, with final distributions occurring August 17 (bit.ly). Also, recent boosts to unemployment benefits may have the unintended effect of incentivizing companies to choose layoffs (bit.ly). However, a PwC survey suggests businesses are confident in their ability to keep employees (bit.ly). ‘Hold Tight’: Unwind of globalization due to tightening supply chains will push up manufacturing costs and prices (yhoo.it). Adding money into the system to aid spending will increase inflationary pressures, pushing yields lower. The expected sharp drop in earnings “coupled with increasing costs could trigger a wave of defaults.” Note that anti-inflationary weapons include rate hikes which could trigger defaults in the face of “a heavily indebted environment.” ‘99 Problems’ And Liquidity Is One: Investors observed disruptions in the U.S. Treasury market evidenced by wide spreads, difficult fills (bit.ly). The Fed announced its intentions to enhance liquidity swap line arrangements alongside 5 other major central banks, helping ease stress as institutions scrambled to service dollar-denominated debts, which sent dollar-funding costs spiraling (reut.rs). Update: Prior tightening has seen alleviation (bit.ly). IMF to mobilize $1T lending capacity to help nations counter the virus outbreak (bloom.bg). ‘The Walls Is Gray, The Clothes Is Orange’: Bill to address the virus shutdown and mitigate the economic impact adds to deficit and tilts outlook down, worsened by a lack in “mandated paid sick leave and universal healthcare, which may necessitate” further fiscal stimulus (t.co). Adding, if fiscal stimulus is successful, higher GDP growth would alleviate an intense “upward trajectory of the federal debt burden.” Debt would remain affordable in the face of low rates, “a key pillar of … fiscal strength.” Additionally, liquidity and functioning credit markets -- alone -- are insufficient in stopping bank asset declines; also, bank credit cost increases will ding profits, but equity, funding cushions are strong. Second Quarter GDP Change Forecasts: -7% Congressional Budget Office, -9% Bloomberg, -25% Citi, -34% Goldman, -38% Morgan, -40% Capital Economics. Comparison: “Between Q3 2008 and Q2 2009, the economy contracted 4.3% on an annual basis.” Read More Here: bit.ly ‘I’m Back’: China and other economic centers in the region are returning to work. That said, data shows the recovery is slow as people avoid social contact. Adding, supply chain activity, energy consumption, traffic congestion remain below normal levels (bit.ly). Also, China’s PMI shot higher, but important to note is that the index monitors the proportion of firms saying activity was higher/lower versus prior month (bit.ly). Unintended Consequences: As the Fed called for use of capital and liquidity buffers to support lending and distribute liquidity, banks acted as if they are or could become constrained. “The big banks faced a dual squeeze – from drawdown of loan facilities / increased financial market intermediation and from the growth in central bank reserves ... - all of which count towards the supplementary leverage ratio in normal times.” Though banks are not the cause of the imminent slowdown, when the economy weakens, they're not counter cyclical either. Example: While $BAC let "mortgage borrowers skip payments, it's also aggressively tightening standards for homeowners looking to raise funds via home equity lines of credit." Talk Of Credit Crisis: The fear that a coronavirus slowdown may cause a credit crisis was ignited after financial conditions tightened despite the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut (bloom.bg). Adding, Bloomberg suggests that signs of stress in the credit market are apparent through multiple channels; credit card and loan delinquencies are appearing on the consumer lending front, while across the world, “Non-bank companies have drastically upped their leverage since the last crisis, as treasurers have taken advantage of historically low interest rates” (bloom.bg). The same article alleges that this increase in debt and leverage is a problem, even in a low rate environment, due to the “profitability drought that is making it harder for companies to service debts.” Highly leveraged banks include JPM (22x leverage), Citi (35x leverage), Goldman (232x leverage), and BoA (12x leverage). See Post Here: bit.ly Refinance, purchase demand higher according to Better.com, a mortgage fintech (bit.ly). 80% of Asia-Pacific companies don’t have high exposure to coronavirus disruptions (bit.ly). Money Market Flows: Sophisticated investors super cautious, while retail less bearish (bit.ly). Dividend Futures: Point to massive slump, but the same markets braced for “far worse slumps in dividends after the 2007-09 recession than” realized (bit.ly). Adding, Goldman dividend per share forecasts price a 25% drop, then breakeven by 2024. Oil Update: Meeting between OPEC and allies to be postponed on mounting tensions (bit.ly). Recap On U.S. Impact: Firms not properly hedged (reut.rs). Basically, producers bought protective put spreads and collars which only hedged from normal (expected) declines. Here are break-even prices for oil producing countries (tmsnrt.rs). Adding, if there was a supply-war truce, two things would happen; first, prices would not return to pre-OPEC levels as demand has deteriorated; second, higher prices would help backstop energy and financial markets, allowing efforts to be diverted to fighting a global financial crisis (reut.rs). Supply Risks: Supply shocks to roll from Asia, to Europe and then North America, "with the worst impact for businesses to come in April and May” (bit.ly). Additionally, an ISM survey indicates that the virus caused supply disruptions for 75% of U.S. companies, leading to a hit in revenues (bit.ly). Cash Is Not Trash: World is fleeing to dollars, pushing up its value relative to other currencies. “This could help the U.S. consumer by making imports cheaper, if imports weren’t disrupted by supply chain constrictions. But with a stronger dollar, U.S. manufacturing will become uncompetitive, and foreign holders of dollar-denominated debt could get pushed into default. Other countries’ import and debt service costs will skyrocket, weakening their currencies and pushing up the dollar even further. The ballooning demand for dollars could lead to a currency liquidity crunch – the swap lines extended to foreign central banks in last Sunday’s Fed intervention were expanded even further on Thursday, a worrying sign that the initial measure wasn’t enough to relieve the strain on the FX markets” (yhoo.it). Margin Called: The holders of MBSs are fielding redemption requests, margin calls (on valuation dips) (bloom.bg). “Invesco Mortgage Capital, a real estate investment trust that invests in mortgage-backed securities, also saying it’s no longer able to fund margin calls. If forced sales accelerate, bond prices could fall and put pressure on other investors to mark down or sell ... holdings." "Real estate investor Tom Barrack said Monday that the U.S. commercial-mortgage market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a ‘domino effect’ of consequences if banks and the government don’t take prompt action to keep borrowers from defaulting." Adding, the Mortgage Bankers Association issued warnings on margin calls (cnb.cx). ‘Money Printer Go Brrrr’: The Fed will buy unlimited amounts of treasury and mortgage-backed securities (wapo.st). The tagged article also discusses a countrywide finance crunch (e.g., Rhode Island to run out of money in weeks) and mass layoffs. Before Market Crash: "Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash … Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now” (bit.ly). Adding, firm’s have reduced spending (bit.ly) which may weaken the economy. ‘V-Shaped Recovery’: "While real GDP could be hit through mid-year by cancelled flights and conferences and other business disruptions causing another round of inventory and capital spending cuts, the rubber band associated with a global rebound has been stretching for more than a year now” (bit.ly). Also, see why innovation always wins out during dark times (bit.ly). Survey of Chinese companies showed ⅔ of respondents only had the ability to cover fixed expenses for two months. While China “has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments” (bloom.bg). Carry Forward: In 2019, airlines and auto were expecting their worst year (bit.ly). This came alongside a trade-war induced slowing in factory activity across the G20 economies (reut.rs). Nevertheless, freight and passenger shipments were slowing in 2019 with orders for consumer good hauling trucks dropping 52% year over year and air shipments solidly negative with April 2019 being the first month in which “every region on Earth, without exception, showed lower outgoing and incoming changes in weight, year over year” (bit.ly). Still, in the summer of 2019, the probability of a downturn was “at least 40% due to a falloff in auto sales, an increase in unsold inventory and weakness in government spending” (bit.ly). ‘Climbing Mental And Emotional Stress’: Virus Impact On Work/Life Environment (bit.ly). Sentiment: 34.2% Bullish, 16.0% Neutral, 49.7% Bearish as of 4/4/2020 (bit.ly). Gamma Exposure: -289,385,495 as of 4/4/2020 (bit.ly). Dark Pool Index: 50.6% as of 4/4/2020 (bit.ly). Index Analysis: $SPX: SPCFD:SPX $RUT: TVC:RUT $NDX: TVC:NDX $DJI: DJCFD:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA $UKX: TVC:UKX $NI225: TVC:NI225 $HSI: TVC:HSI Futures Analysis: /GC: /CL: /NG: /ZB: Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
4
Massive Support zone on NATGAS by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your view of the chart Main items we can see on the Monthly Chart: a) There is a massive Support zone between 1,6 - 1,2 b) This Support has been working since 1992 c) Currently, the price is on 1,6 / The first contact with the support zone d) We think the price will make reversal structures before starting the bullish movement e) This Monthly chart provides us with an idea of a bullish potential of 120% towards the next Resistance zone at 3,7
NYMEX:NG1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
What we are expecting on NATGAS by ThinkingAnts Use this as a guide to develop your view. Main items we can see on the weekly chart: a) The price is on a significant support zone b) We expect a reversal movement based on the previous situations c) If the price goes up respecting previous structures that happened on the past, these are what we will be waiting -Breakout of the descending trendline -Corrective structure of 3 weeks at least, above the broken trendline or on its edge -Our Target for the bullish movement will be the next resistance zone at 2.5
NYMEX:NG1!
by ThinkingAntsOk