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EURJPY And Historical Market PricesEURJPY is a clear example of when it is a good idea to check back for old PA levels. This is because the price has rallied and becomes more extreme. The more extreme price gets the older the PA levels that are relevant become because they have not been hit for a while. As the EUR gains VS the JPY this becomes the case. You can see to the LEFT handside of the chart denoted PA levels (where traders have created rejection) That forms the Bias for new moves. Any Qs ask.
by WillSebastian
3
USD/JPY Bears Eye Downward Trend as US Dollar Faces PressureThe current market for USD/JPY is dominated by the bears, who are eagerly anticipating a continuation of the downward trend. At this crucial moment, the trendline support is highly vulnerable. As Tokyo traders enter the market on Friday, the price of USD/JPY remains stagnant, resting below a significant resistance area near 132.70 on the 4-hour charts. The US Dollar is facing pressure, mainly due to the week's data that has led to the belief that the Federal Reserve will pause in its tightening policy campaign, with just one last rate hike scheduled for May. The primary focus of the market has been on the inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decrease from 6% in February to 5% in March. Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand, which was released on Thursday, also indicated a continued decrease in inflationary pressures, with a 0.5% drop last month. Over the twelve months leading to March, the PPI increased 2.7%, representing the smallest year-on-year rise since January 2021, following a 4.9% increase in February. In the event that the price breaks out of the dynamic trendline, we can expect to see a further pushdown in the price, moving in a downward direction.
by FOREXN1
7
For Those Asking About Buying GBP..Hey Guys, Some have asked me about buying the GBPUSD FX pair. We just had CPI data falling inline with expectations that did not enormously shift GBP upwards or to the downside. Nonetheless our bias remains higher for shorts. WHY? Because that is where Key Risk Averse PA zones exist (larger money short zones). This coincides with the fact you have risen on the GBP for a long amount of time now as a retracement. Within these retracements you will inevitably get rebounds of price as sellers RE move into the market within the upmove. So having said that we are not looking to buy LATE. the train has gone and we need to just wait at the stop again. Buying high is never a good idea. This is an issue. That's because if you are buying it you are buying it WAY after it's been bought (and it's no longer cheap)... If you keep doing that you will statistically be unprofitable (and naturally). Buy dips, sells rips.
by WillSebastian
GBP/USD Showing Bullish Continuation Pattern 50% Fibo 1.2400 SUPDuring early Easter Monday morning in London, the GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing a drop for the fourth consecutive day, as it takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 1.2400. This is a result of the US Dollar rebounding due to risk aversion and hawkish bets on the US Federal Reserve (Fed), following last week's pullback from a 10-month high. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's (BoE) next move is uncertain, causing doubts about the pair's future direction. Based on our analysis, the GBP has experienced a pullback towards the 1.2400 area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci level. We have identified a bullish flag pattern of continuation, indicating that there is a high probability of a new bullish impulse for the Cable.
by FOREXN1
10
EUR/USD steady despite lower than expected ADP reportOn Wednesday, EUR/USD saw a slight retracement from its initial move to 1.0970. Despite this, the Final Services PMIs in Germany and the Eurozone remained strong in March. The US ADP report came in lower than expected at 145K jobs, down from February's 261K jobs. As a result, EUR/USD experienced some gains and losses around the 1.0950 level. Initial resistance for EUR/USD can be found in the 1.0970/80 range, with the currency pair exhibiting a cautious note and showing fluctuations around the 1.0950 area. While hawkish comments from ECB policymakers and healthy prints from Services PMIs in the Eurozone supported the euro, the markets' prudence ahead of the NFP figures on Friday limited the bulls. For the EUR, market participants should keep an eye out for potential tests of the 1.1000 level, as the currency pair continues its weekly rally. The euro's price action will likely be influenced by the direction of the US dollar and the divergence between the Fed and ECB's plans regarding interest rate moves. Furthermore, while hawkish ECB-speak supports further rate hikes, some loss of momentum in economic fundamentals in the region contradicts this view.
Long
by FOREXN1
22
GBP/JPY:Vulnerable Below 164.0 Amid Positive UK Economic OutlookThe GBP/JPY pair is poised to experience further weakness below 164.00, despite a promising UK economic outlook. The sentiment among UK businesses has improved as political instability and inflationary pressures appear to be easing. However, any positive impact on Japan's inflation caused by external factors could cause problems for BoJ policymakers. The GBP/JPY cross is struggling to stay above the immediate support level of 164.00 during the Tokyo session, despite the Bank of England's (BoE) efforts to curb inflation through quantitative restrictions. BoE policymakers believe that the surge in February's inflation was a one-time occurrence, and that inflation will fall below 4% by the end of the year as energy costs decline. However, the robust economic outlook suggests otherwise. According to a report by Reuters on Tuesday, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said that most UK businesses expect sales to increase in the coming year, a positive development from late 2022, despite experiencing no sales growth in the past three months. The BCC also noted that "business sentiment improved as political turmoil and inflationary pressures showed some signs of easing" after a slump in business confidence in the latter half of 2022. Meanwhile, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill cautioned on Tuesday that inflation prospects still require careful consideration due to the potential persistence of domestically generated inflation. He also stated that "wage developments, particularly higher frequency indicators of current momentum, appear to be easing." On the Tokyo front, the Japanese Yen remains subdued despite rising oil prices. While this could increase Japan's inflation, any contribution to inflation through external forces would create problems for Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers.
by FOREXN1
7
USD/JPY Bears Dominate as US Dollar Hovers Near 2-Month LowsThe bears appear to be in charge of the USD/JPY as the US Dollar lingers close to a 2-month low. The market's focus now shifts to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls jobs data. The USD/JPY has dropped in Tokyo, reflecting the US Dollar's continued weakness. The pair is currently trading at around 131.50 and has fallen from its earlier high of 131.73 to a low of 131.30. The US Dollar remains under pressure, hovering near its two-month lows, as a result of several concerning data releases from the United States. These developments have reduced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, which now seems to be approaching the end of its monetary tightening cycle. Overnight data shows that labor market conditions may finally be easing, with job openings, a key labor demand indicator, down by 632,000 to 9.9 million on the final day of February. Furthermore, US factory orders have declined for the second consecutive month, falling by 0.7% in February after a 2.1% decline in January, following a 1.7% increase in December. This data follows the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s report yesterday that its Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.3 last month, the worst level since May 2020, from 47.7 in February.
by FOREXN1
3