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EURUSD / TRADING UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE - 4HEURUSD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS The prices are currently trending lower, indicating a bearish market sentiment. The next move depends on whether the prices break below or hold certain levels. Zone between 1.112 and 1.110 , This is identified as a key demand zone, meaning buyers may step in here to prevent further decline. If prices hold in this zone, there’s potential for a reversal upward. If the price closes below this range based on a 4-hour candle , it suggests continued bearish momentum. If prices fall below the demand zone, the next target would be between 1.107 and 1.104. This area is likely seen as a FVG , where the price may stabilize or find new demand. Stabilizing above 1.112 indicates bullish strength and suggests potential upward movement ,The next resistance levels are 1.117 and, if broken, the price could further rise to 1.122. Supply Zone : 1.117 and 1.125. Demand Zone : 1.112 and 1.110. FVG : 1.107 and 1.104.
Short
by ArinaKarayi
NAS100USD / TRADING INSIDE FVG AREA - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS FVG Area (19,880 - 20,098) , The price is attempting to reach a Fair Value Gap (FVG) area. This suggests that the market is looking for equilibrium within this range. The mention of trading and stabilizing in this range implies that consolidation is happening, and a decision on future direction may follow. Possible Decline to Demand Zone (19,540 - 19,367) , If the price doesn't sustain upward movement within the FVG and begins to weaken, it suggests a potential decline toward the demand zone. Demand zones are areas where buying interest is strong, potentially providing support for the price. Breaking FVG Area Could Lead to Rise (20,328) , If the price breaks above the FVG area, it is expected to rise, with the next target being the supply line around 20,328. Breaking this level could signal an uptrend. Uptrend Confirmation (20,654 - 20,785) , For a confirmed uptrend, the price would need to break through this supply zone. Supply zones often represent resistance areas where selling pressure could halt upward momentum. Supply Zone : 20,654 and 20,785. Demand Zone : 19,540 and 19,367. FVG : 19,880 and 20,098.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by ArinaKarayi
1
XAUUSD / SENSETIVE AREA TRADING - 4HXAUUSD / 4HTIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Yesterday: Gold prices declined by 1.70%. Today: Prices began to recover, rising by 0.95%.Analysts expect a further increase in prices, potentially reaching gains of 1.50% Gold is currently trading below a supply zone between $2,655 and $2,665. This zone represents a key resistance level, where sellers may dominate and prevent further price If gold continues to trade below the $2,655–$2,665 supply zone, it could decline further, with support levels at $2,637 and $2,614. If the price breaks above the supply zone, it may rise towards $2,686, a potential resistance level. Despite the recent dip, the market is under bullish pressure, indicating that buyers are still in control and could push prices higher in the near future. Supply Zone : 2,655 and 2,665$. Demand Zone : 2,637$ and 2,614$.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ArinaKarayi
1
USOIL / UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Recent Decline , Prices began to drop at the end of September by 7.12%. This indicates a noticeable downtrend, which could be driven by various market factors. Support Level at 67.22 , Currently, prices are trading slightly above this key support level. If the price breaks below 67.22, it may trigger a further decline of 9.80%. Potential for Rebound , If the support level holds, a potential rise could occur. Two potential rise targets are a 3.48% increase and a 6.27% increase, depending on how strong the support level is and whether positive momentum returns. Technical Analysis: Current Support Level , The price of USOIL is currently above 67.22. This level serves as a critical support point; if prices remain above this, it suggests bullish sentiment. Target Range (FVG) , If prices hold above 67.22, the analysis predicts an upward movement toward a Fair Value Gap (FVG) area between 68.73 and 69.48. This implies potential buying interest or liquidity in that range. Further Resistance , If the price breaks through the FVG area, it could rise further to reach a resistance level at 71.74. This indicates a bullish outlook if the upward momentum continues. Conversely, if the price drops below 67.22, it suggests a bearish trend, potentially declining to 65.24. This indicates a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish.
TVC:USOILLong
by ArinaKarayi
EURCAD SHORT EURCAD Set-Up Bearish Arguments: Monthly PCH is being respected Monthly Bearish FVG being respected Monthly swing high has been swept Weekly swing high is being respected Daily Bearish FVG is being respected Daily swing high is being respected 4H swing high is being respected Bullish Arguments: Weekly swing low is being disrespected Daily swing low being respected so far 4H Bullish FVG being respected 4H swing high being respected As observed, the bearish probability is around 70%, while bullish odds stand at 30%. For this reason, risk management is crucial. Trade Management: Stop-loss placed at the short-term high. First TP set at SellStop. Once this level is reached, move the SL to break-even (BE) and hold until the final target is reached. Risk-to-Reward (RR): 2.45 Risk: 2%
Short
by Jaytradermb
Analysis: BBNI Sell OpportunityMarket Context: - Price is within a bearish Discounted Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG). - Price broke Daily Trend Line. Entry: 5450 Stop-Loss (SL): 5850 and trailing Target Price (TP)2: 4300 (last swing low) Target Price (TP)2: 3100 (1.618 Fibonacci extension & Weekly Bullish FVG) Monitoring: Track the price daily and adjust based on new market information. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
IDX:BBNIShort
by Phoenix-Rise-Trade
Analysis: LQ45 Sell OpportunityMarket Context: - Price is within a bearish Discounted Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG). - Price broke Daily Trend Line. Entry: 960 Stop-Loss (SL): 990 and trailing Target Price (TP)2: 840-850 (last swing low) Target Price (TP)2: 730-750 (1.618 Fibonacci extension) Monitoring: Track the price daily and adjust based on new market information. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
IDX:LQ45Short
by Phoenix-Rise-Trade
USDJPY Sell PositionTrade Journal Entry USDJPY Sell Time Frame: - Daily (FVG Identification) - 4-hour (Entry Signal) --- 1. Trend Confirmation: Identified a Break of Structure (BOS) on USDJPY by breaking the previous low at 143.43, indicating a continuation in market sentiment and confirming a bearish trend. Noted as well that price is just below a trendline, providing another resistance for price to break. 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG): On the daily chart, noted a Fair Value Gap between 145.00 and 144.25. This gap is a potential reversal zone where the price has revisited, providing a trading opportunity. 3. Entry Signal On the 4-hour chart, an engulfing bearish candle formed after touching the identified FVG zone. This pattern aligns with the bearish trend and indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend. 4. Trade Execution Entry Price: 143.58 Trailing SL: 144.70 (above trendline) TP1: 140.00-140.5 (previous low) TP2: 135.00 (1.618 Fibonacci) Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:3 - 1:7.5 Monitoring: Check-in daily at 8 AM & 8 PM 5. Outcome: Exit Price: Profit/Loss: pips Summary: The trade is based on a bearish trend confirmed by down trendline & the break of the previous low supported by the bearish engulfing pattern within the daily FVG. --- Linarto Wijaya
Short
by Phoenix-Rise-Trade
WTI Long High riskOil Trade Setup FPMARKETS:WTI I've decided to go long just before the news release, as I noticed the liquidity sweep had already occurred. However, I'm cautious about this trade, as the bullish probabilities are mixed, and there are stronger bearish arguments. Trade Management: Stop Loss: Placed just below the liquidity sweep, as breaking this level would suggest further downside. Take Profit: Partial exits planned. First target at $72.38, with the remaining at the next level of buy-side liquidity. Risk/Reward: 4.85 Risk: 1%
FPMARKETS:WTILong
by Jaytradermb
The Fair Value Gap (FVG)The term "fair value gap" is known by various names among price action traders, including imbalance, inefficiency, and liquidity void. But what do these imbalances mean? They arise when the forces of buying and selling exert considerable pressure, resulting in sharp and rapid price movements. On a chart, a Fair Value Gap appears as a three-candlestick pattern. In a bullish context, an FVG forms when the top wick of the first candlestick does not connect with the bottom wick of the third candlestick. Conversely, in a bearish scenario, the FVG is created when the bottom wick of the first candlestick fails to connect with the top wick of the third candlestick. The gap on the middle candlestick, created by the wicks of the first and third candlesticks, represents the Fair Value Gap. The concept of FVG trading is based on the idea that the market has a natural tendency to self-correct. These price discrepancies or inefficiencies are generally not sustainable over time, and the market often returns to these gaps before continuing in the same direction as the original impulsive move. What are the Types of Fair Value Gaps? 1. Bearish Fair Value Gap A bearish Fair Value Gap occurs when there is a space between the bottom wick of the first candlestick and the top wick of the third candlestick. This gap typically appears on the body of the middle candlestick, and the individual characteristics of each candlestick are not particularly important. What’s crucial in a bearish scenario is that the gap on the middle candlestick results from the wicks of the surrounding candlesticks not connecting. 2. Bullish Fair Value Gap A bullish Fair Value Gap occurs when the top wick of the first candlestick does not connect with the bottom wick of the third candlestick. In this case, the specific direction of each candlestick is not as important. What really matters is that there is a gap in the middle candlestick, where the wicks of the first and third candlesticks have not linked. 3. Inverse Fair Value Gap An Inverse Fair Value Gap is an FVG that has lost its validity in one direction but remains significant enough to influence price movement in the opposite direction. For example, a bullish FVG is deemed invalid if it fails to act as a demand zone. However, it then transforms into an inverse bearish FVG, which may serve as a supply zone capable of holding the price. 4. Implied Fair Value Gap The Implied Fair Value Gap is also a three-candlestick pattern, but it does not feature a gap on the middle candlestick, which is why it’s called an “implied FVG.” Instead, it consists of a larger middle candle flanked by two relatively long wicks from the first and third candles. The “gap” is defined by marking the midpoint of the wick of the first candlestick that touches the middle candle and the midpoint of the wick of the third candle that also touches the middle candle. These two midpoints create the gap. Here are some factors that can lead to the formation of fair value gaps: 1. Economic Data Releases Key economic data releases, such as changes in interest rates or unemployment statistics, can similarly create imbalances. If the data surprises the market, it can trigger a swift price movement in one direction, resulting in a gap. 2. Sudden News Events Unexpected news that significantly affects market sentiment can lead to a rapid increase in buying or selling activity, resulting in a gap as prices adjust to the new information. For instance, if a company unexpectedly reports strong earnings, its stock price may surge, creating a gap on the chart. 3. Market Openings or Closings Gaps may form during periods of low liquidity, such as at market openings or closings. With fewer market participants, even a small amount of buying or selling can cause a noticeable price jump that isn’t quickly countered. 4. Large Institutional Trades Significant trades by institutional investors can also lead to fair value gaps (FVGs). When a hedge fund or financial institution executes a large buy or sell order, it can overwhelm the existing order book, causing a rapid price shift and leaving a gap behind. 5. Weekend Gaps FVG's are often observed between the close on Friday and the open on Monday, reflecting news or events that occurred over the weekend. KEY POINTS TO KNOW - Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are powerful tools traders use to identify market imbalances and inefficiencies. - FVGs occur when buying or selling pressure leads to significant price movements, leaving behind gaps on price charts. - FVGs can be identified through technical analysis involving the analysis of candlestick patterns and price chart patterns. - Traders can categorize FVGs into two types: Undervalued FVGs, where prices are lower than fair value, and Overrated FVGs, where prices are higher.
Education
by TaylorDeMario
4
GBPJPY Sell PositionTrade Journal Entry USDCAD Sell Time Frame: - Daily (FVG Identification) - 4-hour (Entry Signal) --- 1. Trend Confirmation: Identified a Change of Character (COC) on GBPJPY by breaking the previous low at 191.40 indicating a bearish reversal in market sentiment. 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG): On the daily chart, noted a Fair Value Gap between 193.30 and 195.85. This gap is a potential reversal zone where the price has revisited, providing a trading opportunity for sell position. 3. Entry Signal On the 4-hour chart, an engulfing bearish candle formed after touching the identified FVG zone. This pattern aligns with the bearish trend and indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend. 4. Trade Execution Entry Price: 192.30 SL1: 196.20 (above FVG high) SL2: 193.60 (above last swing high) TP1: 180.15 (low Aug 2024) TP2: 162.80 (1.618 Fibonacci) Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:3 - 1:21 Monitoring: Check-in daily at 8 AM & 8 PM 5. Outcome: Exit Price: Profit/Loss: pips Summary: The trade is based on a bearish trend confirmed by the break of the previous low, supported by the bearish engulfing pattern within the daily FVG. --- Linarto Wijaya
Short
by Phoenix-Rise-Trade
USDCAD Sell PositionTrade Journal Entry USDCAD Sell Time Frame: - Daily (FVG Identification) - 4-hour (Entry Signal) --- 1. Trend Confirmation: Identified a Change of Character (COC) on USDCAD by breaking the previous low at 1.3600 indicating a reversal in market sentiment and confirming a bearish trend. 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG): On the daily chart, noted a Fair Value Gap between 1.3640 and 1.3690. This gap is a potential reversal zone where the price has revisited, providing a trading opportunity for sell position. 3. Entry Signal On the 4-hour chart, an engulfing bearish candle formed after touching the identified FVG zone. This pattern aligns with the bearish trend and indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend. 4. Trade Execution Entry Price: 1.3595 SL: 1.3655 (above closest high) TP1: 1.3200 (low Jan 2024) TP2: 1.3125 (1.618 Fibonacci) Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:7 - 1:8.5 Monitoring: Check-in daily at 8 AM & 8 PM 5. Outcome: Exit Price: Profit/Loss: pips Summary: The trade is based on a bearish trend confirmed by the break of the previous low, supported by the bearish engulfing pattern within the daily FVG. --- Linarto Wijaya
Short
by Phoenix-Rise-Trade
XAGUSD BULLISHI strongly believe silver is set for a major rally in the coming months. To begin, I'm entering this swing trade with 12 key arguments I've identified, where 90% are bullish and only one is bearish. Bullish Arguments: Monthly PCH being disrespected Monthly PCL being disrespected Weekly swing low not respected Weekly Bullish FVG being respected Daily Bullish FVG being strongly respected Daily swing low not respected 4H Bullish FVG being respected 4H swing low disrespected 4H swing high disrespected Bearish Argument: Daily swing high being respected Trade Management: Stop Loss at yesterday’s low ($29.70) since a rejection would signal a continuation into the daily FVG, giving us a better entry. Take Profit at the swing high or near buy-side liquidity to lock in profits without being greedy. Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.69 Risk: 2%
FX:XAGUSDLong
by Jaytradermb
Getting Ready for a Strong Bull Market in ETHBTC!🚀 The pair seems to have bottomed out, and the arguments are increasingly favorable for an upward movement: 88.89% Bullish vs. 11.11% Bearish. Bullish Arguments: Monthly Bullish FVA Monthly Discount Array Weekly swing low being disrespected Daily swing low being disrespected Daily Bullish FVG respected Daily swing high being disrespected 4H swing high being disrespected 4H swing low being disrespected Bearish Argument: Monthly PCL being respected so far. 🔍 We are on the verge of a bull market. Remember to manage your risk and be masters of your emotions! Don’t hesitate to take profits and, most importantly, learn from your mistakes and successes. Let’s go for it! 💪
Long
by Jaytradermb
Bulls have the Bears by the "Neck" - AUHere I have AUD/USD on the 4Hr Chart! Price is now using the "Neckline" or Support of the failed Head & Shoulders the Bears were unable to finish, and pushing Higher breaking through the Falling Resistance created by the Highs of the "Head" and "Right Shoulder". Now I believe with an on-going Rate Cut cycle about to begin for the Federal Reserve, we will start to see the Bulls undo the previous Head & Shoulders Pattern one Swing High at a time! If Price will need to find some Support before it begins to continue further Higher, this Support can be found at either: - The High just before the Break @ .6732 or - Retesting the Break of Falling Resistance + FVG @ ( .6720 - .6715 ) Indicators: - RSI Above 50 - BBTrend printing Green Bars - Volume Delta showing Bullish presence increasing *TP1 - .67672 *TP2 - .68236
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
2
Bitcoin probabilities: 60% Bullish vs. 40% Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum is Losing Ground—60% Bullish vs. 40% Bearish Probability The bullish case for Bitcoin has weakened slightly due to several conflicting signals across different timeframes. Here's the breakdown: Bullish Factors: 🚫 Monthly PCL disrespected ✅ Monthly Bullish FVG respected 🚫 Weekly swing low disrespected ✅ Weekly Bullish FVG respected ✅ Daily Bullish FVG respected 🚫 4H swing low disrespected 🚫 4H swing low swept Bearish Factors: ✅ Daily swing low respected ✅ Daily swing high respected ✅ Daily Bearish FVG respected 🚫 Daily Bullish FVG disrespected (so far) Given the mixed arguments, it’s crucial to wait for further confirmation before making any moves. Strong economic factors expected this week could shift the market. Don’t get liquidated—patience is key! 🧘‍♂️ Master it to stay profitable. 🏆
by Jaytradermb
USDNOK ShortBearish Probabilities for USD/NOK: 88.89% 📉 Bearish arguments: - Monthly PCH respected. - Weekly FVG respected. - Weekly swing high swept. - Daily PCL disrespected. - Daily swing low disrespected. - Daily bullish FVG disrespected. - 4H FVG respected. - 4H swing low disrespected. - 4H swing high respected. 📈 Only one bullish argument: - Monthly PCL respected which is our PD Array. Trade Management: SL is positioned at the start of the Daily FVG, as a break there would signal a clear reversal or consolidation. TP is placed at the SELL STOP level, although if reached, the price may quickly target the DOL point. I will lock in profits at the first target and look for another entry afterward. Risk: 2% R/R: 2.06
Short
by Jaytradermb
ETH long momentum High risk Possible Momentum in ETH – 6 Bullish Arguments: 1️⃣ Swing low is holding. 2️⃣ Liquidity sweep below the swing low. 3️⃣ Discount Array Weekly 4️⃣ Bearish FVG disrespected. 5️⃣ Wick from the previous day still respected today. 6️⃣ Bullish FVG 1H respected Trade Management: The key focus is on how the weekly candle closes, so my stop-loss is placed tightly below the previous candle’s low. Target profit is set at the intermediate term high (ITH). Capital Risk: 2% R/R: 5.74
Long
by Jaytradermb
TWLO, rebalance to FVG, then make a bullish liquidity run So, my current analysis is built around a bullish bias on this chart. I’ve identified a few key elements that are lining up to potentially signal a strong move upward: Bullish Block Breaker: First, I've identified a bullish block breaker. This occurred when the price broke above a significant resistance level, indicating a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. This breakout suggests that buyers have taken control, and it's often a sign of a potential trend reversal or continuation to the upside. Fair Value Gap (FVG): After the bullish block breaker, the price left behind a Fair Value Gap. This gap is an area of price imbalance, where the market moved too quickly and didn't allow for a balanced trading range. I'm looking for the price to potentially retrace into this FVG, as the market often seeks to 'rebalance' itself by filling this gap. This rebalancing process can provide a strategic entry point. Bullish Order Block with 50% Retracement: Within the area where the FVG resides, I've also identified a bullish order block. This is an area of previous consolidation before the strong upward move. What adds confluence here is the 50% retracement level within this order block. This 50% level is crucial because it often represents a fair value area within the order block itself. Institutions and smart money traders often look to add to their positions around this level. So, if the price can hold above this 50% mark within the order block, it significantly increases the chances of a bounce. Confluence Zone: The combination of the FVG, the bullish order block, and the 50% retracement level creates a strong confluence zone. This area serves as a potential support level where I expect buyers to step in if the bullish bias is to continue. Looking for a Liquidity Run: After potentially rebalancing in the FVG and finding support within the order block at the 50% retracement level, I’ll be looking for the price to make a move towards a liquidity run. The target here would be key liquidity zones, such as previous swing highs or resistance levels. These are areas where stop-loss orders from short sellers or breakout orders from buyers are likely concentrated, acting as a magnet for the price.
NYSE:TWLO
by carrolltatejr87
1
Do not trade if you do not have high probability XAUUSDIt’s not just about the thrill of nailing a setup and making profits. It’s also about recognizing when an asset has you emotionally trapped, even when there’s no solid argument for your position. Here’s a lesson from my own experience: After making a huge trade on gold ( ) , I became fixated on the idea that it would keep falling, completely ignoring the market structure. This blinded me to the obvious bullish signals the market was giving. Here are the 7 bullish arguments for gold that I overlooked in my post-trade euphoria: Monthly PCH disrespected Weekly FVG respected Weekly Swing Low respected Daily Swing Low respected Daily FVG respected Bearish 4H FVG disrespected 4H Swing Low respected Not a single bearish argument in sight—a full 100% probability that the price would rise, and indeed it did. 🚨 Lesson learned: Being a profitable trader isn’t just about technical analysis. It’s about mastering your emotions, understanding market structure, and managing your risk. Stay humble, stay disciplined.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Jaytradermb