NZD/USD - 19/11/2024 Something to keep an eye on for the morning.
Daily narrative and context defined, potential ST on hourly timeframe to continue lower
Fvg
SPX 500 day trading LONGAnalysis: Market Structure & Probabilities
OANDA:SPX500USD
PML (Previous Monthly Low) has been broken, moving higher than last month's low.
PMH (Previous Monthly High) has also been broken, pushing beyond last month’s high.
PWH/PWL (Previous Weekly High/Low) similarly breached, with price moving higher than the previous month's range.
PDL (Previous Daily Low) and 4H Swing High/Low have also been surpassed.
These indicators suggest a strong bullish bias, with an 87.5% probability of further upside movement vs. a 12.5% bearish scenario (reflected in PDH, as the price dipped below yesterday’s high).
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.14
Simple as that.
XAUUSD / RANGE BETWEEN SUPPLY ZONE AND DEMAND ZONE / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Previous Price Movement , The price initially rose to a supply zone, achieving a profit of +240 pips, indicating a successful upward trade before the price began to decline.
Current Support Zone, The price has now fallen to a demand zone between $2,565 and $2,550. This zone is viewed as a potential area of support where buyers may enter, potentially reversing or slowing the decline.
Potential Price Increase, There’s an expectation that the price could bounce back up to an FVG between $2,636 and $2,664. This gap might act as an interim target, providing resistance where the price could stall or reverse again.
Upward Continuation , For prices to continue rising, they would need to stabilize above the demand zone between $2,565 and $2,550. If they do, the target for the next supply zone lies between $2,687 and $2,708.
Risk of Further Decline, However, if the price breaks below and stabilizes under the demand zone, it suggests a likely continuation of the downtrend, as it would indicate a weakening of buying support.
Overall Trend , Despite the downward moves, the overall trend is described as under “upward pressure,” indicating a bullish bias in the larger context.
DXY Potential Rally to 108: High-Probability Setup with FVG The DXY is currently positioned around 105, showing momentum to potentially push up to the 108 region. This area features a high-probability Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the daily and weekly timeframes, providing a strong confluence zone. Price previously failed to sustain on the monthly OB, indicating a move towards the buyside liquidity above this PD array.
Should we see price react at the 108 FVG, it could present a reversal opportunity, especially given the alignment with overlapping daily and higher timeframe FVGs. However, if bullish momentum continues, this setup may also lead to further liquidity grabs.
Always remember: DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
BITCOIN / OVERALL UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE / 4H BITCOIN / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Bitcoin recently reached an all-time high (ATH) of approximately $90,000 before experiencing a corrective phase. Prices are expected to stabilize in the demand zone between $76,982 and $74,781. Should Bitcoin maintain stability above this level, it may reattempt its ATH, targeting a new range of $92,000 to $95,000. However, a break below this demand zone could indicate a further decline towards a lower support region between $70,379 and $66,920. Overall, Bitcoin continues to exhibit bullish momentum despite corrective phases.
XAGUSD / TRADING UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE / 4HXAGUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Overall Trend , The prices are currently under downward pressure, suggesting that the market is in a bearish phase until a breakout occurs from the current trading channel.
Demand Zone , The asset is attempting to reach a demand zone, which is between 30.27 and 30.01. If the price stays above this range, it is expected to rise toward the supply line at 32.03.
If the price stabilizes above the demand zone, there is a potential for upward movement toward the supply zone, which lies between 32.55 and 32.92. This suggests a possible reversal or rally in price.
Conversely, if the price breaks and stays below the demand zone, it indicates a further downward movement, with the next target being the FVG (Fair Value Gap) area, between 29.71 and 29.16. This would suggest that the market is under significant bearish pressure.
Supply Zone , The overall sentiment remains bearish until the price moves above the supply zone (between 32.55 and 32.92). As long as the price is trading below this range, downward pressure is expected to persist.
NASD100USD / TRADING BELOW ATH PRICES / 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Current Price Action , The Nasdaq has reached a historical peak (ATH) around 21,250, Prices are showing signs of a potential decline after hitting this high, suggesting a possible retracement.
ATH Resistance (21,250): If prices stabilize below this level, it signals a likely bearish trend.
Demand Zone (20,906 - 20,781): This is the first support area where buyers may re-enter. If prices reach here and hold, it could signal consolidation or a potential bounce.
FVG Zone (20,482 - 20,324): A further decline to this fair value gap would confirm a downtrend, indicating bearish pressure. Breaking this level would suggest a more substantial downturn.
If the Nasdaq breaks below the FVG, it’s expected to target the next demand zone between 20,074 and 19,916, which represents a significant support range for a potential bounce or further drop.
If prices stabilize above the FVG zone (20,482 - 20,324), this could indicate potential for a rally back towards the ATH at 21,250, as buyers maintain control in this range.
XAUUSD / FURTHER DECLINE / OVERALL UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE / 4HXAUUSD / 4HTIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
. Current Downtrend: The price is currently in a downward movement.
Demand Zone (Support): The analysis identifies a demand zone between $2,565 and $2,551. A demand zone typically represents a price level where buying interest is strong, potentially causing the price to stabilize or increase.
Expectation if Stabilization Occurs , If the price stabilizes above this demand zone, it suggests a potential rebound , The price may then move upward to reach a supply zone between $2,618 and $2,618. (It seems this zone might have been mistyped, as it should likely be a range.)
Further Increase if Supply Zone Breaks , If the price closes above the supply zone with a 4-hour (4H) candle, this signals continued upward momentum , This could lead to an increase toward a higher supply zone between $2,732 and $2,749.
Further Decline if Demand Zone Breaks , If the price falls below the demand zone (between $2,565 and $2,551), this suggests a likely continuation of the downtrend, with further declines in price expected.
XAUUSD / TRADING DEMAND ZONE / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Time Frame and Initial Target , The analysis is based on a 4-hour (4H) chart, which is commonly used for short- to medium-term trading insights, A previous target was reached with a +550 pip profit due to a decline to the demand zone, implying successful movement in line with expectations.
Current Price Movement , Prices are trying to reach $2,605 in the demand zone , As long as prices remain above this level, there is potential for an increase, likely moving toward a supply zone between $2,687 and $2,708.
Possible Downside , If prices break below and stabilize under $2,605, this could signal a further decline to the next demand zone between $2,565 and $2,551.
Overall Market Pressure , The trend shows upward pressure, but breaking the demand zone between $2,565 and $2,551 could confirm a downtrend, indicating a bearish shift if support does not hold.
XAUUSD / UNDER DEMAND ZONE PRESSURE / 1HXAUUSD / 1H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
This analysis describes a potential price movement for gold within a 1-hour timeframe based on demand and supply zones:
The demand zone is identified between $2,643 and $2,659. The text suggests that if gold prices stabilize at or above this zone, it could signal an upward move.
If prices stabilize within or above the demand zone, they may rise to the supply zone, located between $2,688 and $2,703 , If prices surpass the supply zone, the next target level mentioned is $2,710.
If prices break below the demand zone (below $2,643), it could indicate a potential decline , In this case, target levels would be $2,618 and $2,605.
Bitcoin Wait for a good longThe bullish case is strong, but proper risk management is essential if you're looking to go long. The current market is heavily overleveraged with long positions, causing sharp wicks and rejections, typical of a bull run.
I plan to wait and open a position at $60,750, keeping in mind that the price could drop further to $57,700, where I also plan to enter. However, don’t sleep on that level—it might be the last opportunity to open a long at a good price!
BINANCE:BTCUSD
AUDUSD Long- day tradingForgot to post this trade earlier!
FX:AUDUSD
Let's see if it reaches the buy-side liquidity: we've got a W pattern, swing low, FVG, discount array, and buy-side liquidity in play.
Honestly, it looks poised to go higher if today’s level holds; otherwise, more downside ahead. EUR/USD has recovered well, but tomorrow will bring a new challenge.
XAUUSD / BREAKOUT THE SUPPORT TRENDLINE / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Target Achievement , The analysis mentions a prior target of +430 pip profit, with the price currently yielding a 1.58% rate. This suggests that an expected price decline has already occurred and reached a specific profit target.
Demand Zones , The current demand zone is between $2,659 and $2,649. If prices stabilize above or within this range, there may be an opportunity for prices to rebound and move towards a higher range , If prices break below this demand zone, a further decline is anticipated toward a lower demand zone between $2,618 and $2,604.
Supply Zones , If prices rise, the target supply zone is set between $2,687 and $2,710.
For an uptrend to be confirmed, prices would need to break and stabilize above this supply zone, indicating potential for further upward movement.
Overall Trend , Despite potential rebounds within the specified zones, the asset is noted as trading “under downward pressure,” suggesting an overall bearish outlook unless key supply or demand zones are broken in favor of a trend reversal.
US30 / TRADING INSIDE ASCENDING CHANNEL / 4HUS30 / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Current Price Trends:
Following Trump’s win, the US30 index rose by 4.90% , The index is now testing historical peak levels around 44,045, with a potential to reach 44,532 if the upward trend holds.
Technical Levels and Price Action:
The analysis suggests that if prices stay below a certain “ascending channel line,” it could indicate weakness, possibly leading to a decline , The first potential downside target is a “Fair Value Gap” (FVG) between 43,381 and 42,984 , If prices break this zone, further declines could target another FVG range between 42,716 and 42,335.
Trend Confirmation:
If the price remains below the second FVG zone, it might confirm a downtrend , Conversely, if it stays above these levels, it suggests potential for a continued increase.
NAS100USD / UNDER FOMC PRESSURE / 4H NAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Recent Price Movement ,The price has reached a new historical level, breaking past the last all-time high (ATH) of 20,788.
Current Target , Prices are trying to approach 21,125. As long as there’s upward pressure, there’s potential for growth.
Potential Retest of Support , Before continuing to increase, prices might retest an old supply zone between 20,788 and 20,662. This area serves as a potential support level, and if the price remains above it, there’s a higher chance for further increases.
Upside Target , If prices stabilize above this support zone, there’s a chance of reaching a new ATH around 21,125. If it breaks this level, the next historical zone lies between 21,200 and 21,350.
Downside Risk, If prices fall below the old supply zone, it could indicate a decline, with a potential target of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 20,482 and 20,335. This level represents a potential lower support area if the price trend reverses.
XAUUSD / TEST TO SUPPLY ZONE BEFORE DECLINE / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The asset is aiming to reach a supply zone between $2,747 and $2,732, This zone represents an area where selling pressure is expected, potentially capping upward movement.
Prices are under downward pressure, especially after the news about Trump’s election, which has impacted the market sentiment.
As long as the price stays below or within this supply zone, the expectation is for further declines , If prices stabilize below the current supply zone, they are expected to move down towards a demand zone between $2,657 and $2,638.
For a confirmed downtrend, the asset would need to stay below this demand zone, potentially pushing prices lower toward the next zone between $2,618 and $2,605 , If prices break through the upper boundary of the supply zone ($2,747), there may be an upward move toward a higher supply zone between $2,773 and $2,790, suggesting a possible trend reversal or upward correction.
XAUUSD / AFTER VOTE OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE AMRICAN / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Initial Reaction to Election Outcome, It suggests that gold prices dropped by 3.46% following Trump’s win, indicating an immediate market response likely due to investor sentiment or economic expectations associated with his presidency.
Current Trading Position, The current price is below an “ascending channel” (typically a technical pattern indicating a trend), which could signal a weakening upward trend. However, it remains within a “demand zone,” where buying interest could support prices.
Demand Zone and Support, As long as gold stabilizes above the $2,657 - $2,638 demand zone, there is a potential for prices to rise back up. This zone acts as a support level, where enough demand could prevent further declines.
Upside Target (Supply Zone), If prices hold above the demand zone, there is an expectation of an increase toward the $2,732 - $2,747 supply zone. This is seen as a resistance level where selling pressure may limit further upward movement.
Downside Risk , If a 4-hour candle closes below the demand zone, a further decline is anticipated, potentially pushing prices down to the next demand zone between $2,618 - $2,605.
Overall Trading Range , The analysis concludes with a broader price range for gold between $2,790 (upper limit) and $2,605 (lower limit). This range outlines the expected volatility in gold prices.
FILECOIN LONG-SWING TRADINGI’m starting to go long on altcoins, beginning with Filecoin. I see a realistic target before the weekend, ahead of a potential breakout.
BINANCE:FILUSDT
This is a swing trade setup, with the plan to close it by the weekend or on Sunday at the latest.
Entry Strategy:
OTE (0.705) + FVA + FVG + Overlapping Defense
Trade Management:
Consider taking the first profit at the 1.62 Fibonacci level. However, with altseason on the horizon, I'm aiming higher—targeting the 2.62 level to close the trade if all goes as expected.
Altseason is approaching. Stay calm; there’s still time to position yourself for solid entries at good prices before December.
Trading NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 05/11/2024Last week concluded with a 3% gain using the Judas Swing strategy, which yielded three trades in total: two on EURUSD and one on NZDUSD. The EURUSD trades resulted in one win and one loss, while the NZDUSD trade closed with a win. These results have set the stage for a thrilling week ahead in the markets, and we can't wait to see what unfolds! As usual, we arrived at the trading desk at 8:25 EST to delineate our trading zones.
Once these zones have been marked we need to wait for the high or low of this zone to be swept, this step is essential to help us get a bias for the trading session. After 40 minutes, the liquidity at the high of the zone was swept, indicating that we should look for potential selling opportunities in this session.
While we may lean toward a sell this session, we hold back from entering until we see a clear structure break on the sell side. During this shift, price should create a Fair Value Gap, giving us an optimal entry point to step into the trade. After an hour's wait, we finally got a Break of Structure on the sell side, which also resulted in a Fair Value Gap being created.
To fulfill all the entry criteria on our checklist, we must wait for price to retrace into the Fair Value Gap that has formed, and we can only execute the trade once the candlestick has closed. After 10 minutes a candle entered the Fair Value Gap, indicating that upon its closure, we may proceed with executing the trade.
By risking just 1% of our account for a potential 2% gain, we reduce emotional attachment, knowing the loss is manageable, while positioning ourselves for greater rewards. Shortly after entering, the trade went into a drawdown; however, since we had risked an amount we were comfortable with losing, the current state of the trade did not move us.
Upon reviewing the position after some time, we noticed that the trade had started moving in our favor, although it hadn't moved much from the entry price. Given the average trade duration of around 11 hours for the strategy, there’s no rush, we simply need to wait for the setup to deliver as expected.
While the trade didn't reach our desired outcome and we took a 1% loss after the stop loss was hit, we remained unaffected because we were fully prepared for this potential outcome.
NAS100USD / UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE / 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Market Movement Post-Election:
The analyst mentions that after Trump’s victory, NAS100USD rose by 610 pips (a pip here likely refers to a unit of price change in the index, even though “pips” are more common in forex markets). This initial increase reflects market optimism or a reactionary move post-election.
Current Supply Zone:
The NAS100USD is currently trading in a “supply zone” between 20,662 and 20,788. A supply zone in trading refers to a price range where there’s likely to be selling pressure. The price is near its all-time high (ATH) around 20,788, which could mean resistance.
Potential Scenarios Based on Price Action:
If a 4-hour candle opens and stays below the ATH level of 20,788, the analyst expects a decline in the price. This might reach a fair value gap (FVG) between 20,482 and 20,335. An FVG often suggests an area where the price could correct or balance out.
If prices move lower, they could reach a demand zone between 20,088 and 19,961. A demand zone is a price range where buying interest could push the price back up.
Scenario for an Upward Move:
Conversely, if a 4-hour candle closes above the ATH level, it suggests a potential continuation of the uptrend. The price might then aim for a new historical range between 20,972 and 21,125.
USDJPY / TRYING TO REACH DEMAND ZONE AFTER SUPPLY ZONE / 4HUSDJPY / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Current Price Action:
The prices are trying to reach a demand zone between 150.210 and 148.835. A demand zone typically indicates an area where buying interest is expected to increase, potentially causing prices to rise if they stabilize here.
Upward outlook:
If prices remain and stabilize inside or above this demand zone, it suggests the possibility of an upward move. This would be a bullish indicator, pointing towards an increase in price to the next supply zone between 152.763 and 153.914. Supply zones are areas where selling pressure may occur, potentially leading to price resistance.
Downward outlook :
If the prices break below the current demand zone (148.835), this would imply bearish pressure, suggesting a possible further decline. The next target in this scenario is another demand zone between 146.422 and 145.917, where buyers might step in again.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Despite the potential for a decline if the current demand zone is broken, the analysis notes that prices are currently under bullish pressure. This means the overall market trend is upward, but staying above the key demand zone is crucial for this bullish outlook to remain valid.
XAUUSD / UNDER CHOICE PRESIDENT AMRICAN / 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Market Influence of Election Results:
The text suggests that if Donald Trump wins the election, it could impact the financial markets by increasing the price of gold and decreasing the value of the dollar. This reflects the common market reaction where political uncertainty or risk can lead to a “flight to safety” in assets like gold.
Current Gold Price Levels:
• The current price range mentioned is between $2,728 and $2,709. This is described as a support or stabilization zone, where prices are attempting to maintain a level above $2,709.
• If the price stabilizes above this range, there’s an expectation that gold could continue to rise, aiming for a “Fair Value Gap” (FVG) between $2,756 and $2,772. Above this FVG, there is a “supply zone” where upward momentum might slow or reverse due to selling pressure.
Downward Scenario:
• If the gold price falls below $2,709, it suggests a possible decline toward the “demand zone” between $2,688 and $2,672. A demand zone indicates a level where buyers might come in, potentially stopping or reversing the price decline.
Overall Trend:
• The text concludes that gold is trading under upward pressure, meaning that current market sentiment is biased toward price increases. This could be influenced by factors like inflation concerns, economic instability, or political uncertainties tied to the election.
BITCOIN / UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE / 4HBITCOIN / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Demand Zone (Support): 67.435 - 66.457
• Above this Zone: As long as the price remains above this range, it suggests a higher likelihood of a bullish trend, with potential to move upward.
• Potential Target on Stability Above: If prices stabilize above this demand zone, it may attract buyers, leading to an upward movement toward the supply zone.
Supply Zone (Resistance): 71.484 - 72.916
• Upside Potential: Should the price continue to rise after holding above the demand zone, it may reach this supply zone. This area could act as resistance, where selling pressure might increase.
Downside Risk and Confirmation of Downtrend:
• Break Below Demand Zone (66.457): If prices fall below the demand zone, it could signal the start of a decline, with a potential target around 65.320.
• Break Below 65.320: A drop below this level would further confirm a downtrend, suggesting stronger bearish sentiment.
Trend Confirmation:
• Uptrend: Stabilizing and maintaining price levels above the demand zone supports a bullish scenario.
• Downtrend: Breaking below 65.320 would confirm a downtrend, indicating a bearish
