Fvg
EUR/USD Short - July 17 '23We are currently on a very high premium zone on EUR/USD. Formed lots of liquiidty with equal highs as well. Price liquidated higher forming a bearish engulfing candle on the H1 timeframe. Now price is closing the bearish engulfing candle imbalance and shifted market structure as well. Price above the NY opening price. Targeting a very nice zone of imbalance below. Lots of zones to rebalance below. Aggressive reversal trade, good luck traders!
EURNZD SHORT SETUP ABOUT FVGOn EUR/NZD we have a bullish setup this morning. a strong level has already been formed in the market, closing in less than 3 hours with a +1.5% gain. currently, the price seems to be heading towards the 1.7878 zone, where we have another bearish strong level. As always, we need to wait for the right confirmations on m15 and h1 before entering the market. risk management first and foremost. Wishing everyone a good day, greetings from Nicola, ceo of Forex48 Trading Academy.
CPI (June)CPI YoY:
Forecast: 3.1%
Previous: 4.0%
Actual: ?
With CPI on the very near horizon, here are my thoughts on what Bitcoin could do in terms of price action:
Bullish scenario - We all know that CPI tends to be a volatile event with aggressive whipsaws in price in both directions irrespective of the outcome. Therefore there is an opportunity to capitalise on the frantic LTF price action.
For the bulls A good place to enter is the local range low if we see a reclaim after a demand zone sweep. I think this is fairly likely and ideally we see price move to the downside first upon the data release as in general, THE FIRST MOVE IS THE WRONG MOVE... following this initial move to the downside a reclaim would be primed for local highs in my opinion. If there is no reclaim then unfortunately there really isn't much support on the way down as BTC would seek to fill the FVG at 27K. A reaction off this level will leave BTC in a good place to attack 32.5k, reinforced with the ETF narrative and decision coming not too far down the line.
Bearish scenario - As was suggested previously, the first move is wrong, therefore the second move is the true move and for the bears it's the opposite to the bulls. If we see price move to the upside upon data release, I would like to see a SFP of the local range highs before entering short with the range midpoint as first target, then range low, then FVG as final target. If that LTF range high holds after being broken, I would like to see a strong wick up into 32.5K resistance and a reaction off this level to the downside and supply liquidity has been taken. Any slow grind up into this level would have me concerned as to BTC printing a swing fail and not just blasting through after consolidating. If that does play out then I would re-evaluate and stay in cash while doing so.
Reminder: First move is the wrong move.
CPI is usually very volatile and therefor risky. It's easy to FOMO into random positions as a gamble, the market usually wins in those positions.
My Next Week View On GBPUSDFOREXCOM:GBPUSD
GBPUSD is still bullish.
But since we just took out external liquidity, I will wait till it retrace back inside the bullish range to rebalance an imbalance or find support at the 4H order block.
I will be buying GBPUSD at any of the discount PD arrays on 4H.
I will keep buying GBPUSD till we reach the 1.30043 level on weekly and monthly or till we have a shift in market structure on 4H.
Looking at the fact that we are currently at weekly and monthly premium, i expect price to give a some sort of retracement on 4H for smart money to accumulate more positions at any of the 4H discount arrays like FVG, Order Block etc, giving price the necessary support it needed to push up deeper into higher time frame premium arrays.
My GBPUSD Buy Setup For Next WeekCheck out this Buy setup for GBPUSD projection for next week move.
FOREXCOM:GBPUSD
Thoughts Process Behind the Setup:
Weekly Time Frame: Bullish plus FVG and bearish order block above price serving as a draw on liquidity.
Also, price already retraced to fill the FVG below price. Which means price is now ready to push higher to fill the FVG above.
Daily Frame: Price bouncing off daily bullish order block to fill an imbalance.
The only setback on daily for now is the bearish order block where price is currently at.
2HR: Price took out sellside liquidity and dropped further into the weekly FVG and then created a shift in market structure leaving a clear FVG behind.
Entry: I used my FIB to locate OTE around the FVG which is where i will be placing my limit order for entry.
What do you see on your own chart?
Usdcad Ready For a Bullish RunMy usdcad bullish view
FOREXCOM:USDCAD
Weekly: Usdcad is bouncing off weekly order block with old high above serving as a draw on liquidity.
4HR: Price took out sellside liquidity and created a shift in market structure leaving behind a clear order block and fair value gap.
Above price, we have multiple buyside liquidity and fair value gap which serve as a draw on liquidity for price.
I expect price to fill the fair value gaps above and take out the buyside liquidity.
Entry: I will set my buy limit order at around 1.31662 ote level.
Stop loss: My stop loss will be place around 1.31128 zone below the swing low.
Take profits: My final take profits will be at 1.36516.
But I will take partials along the way as price take out each of those swing highs on the way.
Do follow me for more updates like this.
Crypto Analysis - Bitcoin Monthly Price Action FVGWith so much indecision in the market the sentiment has been forked with Bulls and Bears ... the highest since 2003 according to bloomberg's analysis on the S&P targets for analysts High vs Low targets -
This general sentiment goes thru out markets that just follow an ebb and flow till something happens in that particular sector. A good example of this is Nasdaq bullish movement due to mostly AI boosting tech into new highs. Or the banking industry affecting the Dow.
With that said , Crypto looms with much uncertainty as nations adopt digital currency formed by legislations in their respective localities.
My personal standpoint is from a thesis that price action moves to liquidity and inefficiency. Crypto bull runs left much inefficiency and liquidity sits at key areas on the Monthly Timeframe:
The Annual Range midpoint for 2022 is noted at 31850
Orderblocks from June 2021 Mean threshold for Open to Close - 36168
Range midpoint 35061
A Fair Value Gap is formed for the month of May 2022
Quad levels for this area:
High - 37590
upper quad - June 2021 OB mean Threshold
Consequent Encroachement - Near June Close 2021
Lower Quad - 33370
Low, IOFED = ’22 Annual Range Midpoint
COINBASE:BTCUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BINANCE:BTCUSD
03/07/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $31291.8
Last weeks low: $29420.6
Midpoint: $30356.2
The week starting on Monday 19th of June was the latest rally for bitcoin, a strong move up leaving some large FVG inefficiencies left behind that price will look to fill in the future. The upside capped off at just under 31.5k, a high that the bulls couldn't top last week while chopping sideways in a much tighter range than previous, and consolidating under the all important 32-32.5k region where a lot of traders will look to do business.
This week for me will go one of two ways in my opinion:
A slow and steady drop from current price down into those FVG areas, the main one being 27.2-27.75k.
OR
We wick up above recent highs, tag liquidity in the supply zone around 32.5k before a sharp sell off back into those FVG zones before anymore progress can be made above this range.
FOMC minutes event on Wednesday may provide the volatility required for this liquidity grabbing wick.
WINLEV + PULLBACK OTE OB Pattern: Failed.WELP.
SL HIT.
It got so close to TP point yesterday though.
Sad.
Anyway.
Reason trade failed?
1. Strong resistance
2. Too ambitious tp point?
3. I should have closed the trade once I saw price made a lower high and flipped to the downside.
4. Maybe I should have made the SL or even entry point a lot lower than the FVG? Current price just bounced from the FVG and it looks like a good re-entry point. I'll see what I can do.
Pullback OTE + OB Trade StrategyPullback OTE + OB Trade Strategy
Pump + Pullback to OTE + Orderblock Strategy.
Tapped FVG below + Weak High = ripe for more pump. Just has to gather more gas at the orderblock to fuel the breakout.
I just can't think of any good or new thing to say about this.
I've done this several times.
You can follow this or not, it depends on you. Just put a stoploss and proper position sizing so you're good.
Gold W Buy Idea 5/20/23Gold is still at all time highs at the moment, so I am still not sure if it will go higher and break the previous month high (PMH)/the monthly high from 3/1/22 again OR break and retest this weekly (W) zone that it is currently playing in and go bearish again. I do know that there is a M liquidity zone + a W B (buy) FVG (fair value gap) right under where price is currently at.
For the STRATers, The W has formed a 2-1-2d-Rev.
So what I would like to see price do is break down to the W B FVG and bounce back bullish to hit the PMH(s).
ICT Power of 3 Strategy on GoldPower of 3 at work on Gold producing a 8.6RR move on 30/06/2023
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
AMD:
A: Accumulation
M: Manipulation
D: Distribution
Accumulation : Price range during Asian session, accumulating liquidity on both sides of long and shorts.
Manipulation : Price broke the low of the accumulation during London session to take out sell side liquidity and then fill the previous day imbalance.
Distribution : Price move away from the FVG leading to a shift in market structure on 5m time frame, plus a short pull back, follow by a massive move to the upside during the New York session to take out buy side liquidity above.
Fair Value Gap Strategy (FVG): GBPUSD 7.32x Reward TradeCheck out this 7.32RR trade I took today on GBPUSD.
OANDA:GBPUSD
Trade Process:
Daily is bullish with FVG serving as draw on liquidity.
1HR: Took out Sellside liquidity left with BuySide liquidity to take out.
15M: London Session open took out 15M sellside liquidity with high probability of taking out Buyside liquidity.
Entry: I used my fib to locate OTE at the FVG which is where i placed my buy limit.
Price retraced to pick my order and fly high to take out the buyide liquidity and the daily FVG.
CROUSDT Long Trade Idea (1H + 5m)1H:
- Price rallys downwards with momentum
- Price creates equal lows which is sell side liquidity
- This gets cleared as price moves lower
- Price also clears a major low, identifying a break of structure lower
5m:
- Price moves upwards with momentum, forming displacement
- Price clears multiple highs in this bullish move up
- Price forms a fair value gap (FVG) which is at a discount and this is where we go long
TP set to resting Buy Side Liquidity on 1H - 0.06040
SL set to the lowest low of the move upwards - 0.05604
EURCAD SHORT TO 1.38000EURCAD have been on the rise since August 2022, and now approaching the highs of 2022, what are my expectations?
We can see that above the 2022 highs, there is a weekly imbalance I labelled, so price might get to that highs before going bearish, remember that the first leg of the M formation, formed on December, so this will be our second leg. So we expect this move to flow to 1.38000
Why shorting?
There on the monthly timeframe, there is a high resistance zone we are currently on and we expect continuation of trend to the downside.
Please do share, and give a follow to support.
BTCUSDT LIQUIDITY STRUCTUREBTCUSDT price has been experiencing upward movement toward the previous SELL IMBALANCE & LIQUIDITY VOID created by previous sharp SELL OFF , so it is wise to consider SELL around these levels
Also price is reaching the BUY SIDE LIQUIDITY above previous EQUAL HIGHS at 32500
there are still strong UNMITIGATED SUPPLY LEVELS on the way and it is smart to consider SELL POSITION to the target of UNMITIGATED DEMANDS and FVG's around 24k$ to 20k$
If market want to become BULLISH it must clear the SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY first , which this HAS NOT HAPPENED yet , so I'm waiting for SELL ENTRY above previous EQUAL HIGHS to the target of DEMANDS from previous upward move that they pull the price down like GRAVIGY
SMC analysis on GMT/USDT (Bearish!!!)Hello guys ,Today i found a great opportunity on GMT with SMC.
the price is trying to breakout the trend line.(wait for the pullback)
open your position when price breaks the last LL(new CHOCH) and pullback to the trend line.(open your sell position at 0.2200)
the SL should be above the local green channel.(SL at 0.2225 is a good choice)
we have a FVG between 0.2075 and 0.2085, you can close the position at FVG.
it's just an idea , always do your research and analysis.
don't forget to follow and boost this idea :) thank you.
ES/NQ Weekly Analisys Weekly Analysis
June 20 - June 23, 2023
During the previous week, NQ entered the zone of the daily Order Block (OB) and came close to testing the Mean threshold of that OB. It also entered the Monthly BB-.
Therefore, this week, I anticipate a retracement to the 4-hour OB level between 15188.00 and 15094. For an ideal scenario, I would like to see a bounce from the range of 15186.75 to 15142.50, targeting the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB at 15534.00. It's also worth monitoring the Critical Level of the Monthly Break Block at 15722.75, although it may not be reached this week.
To recap the structure: Consolidation, followed by Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal.
Hence, my retracement level before the Order Block is set at 15186.75. Inside that zone, there are 15-minute BB+, as well as 15-minute FVG and 1-hour FVG. If the retracement fails to hold at the OB level, we should anticipate a reversal phase where it breaks 15066 and drops further, ideally reaching the Daily SIBI level between 14963 and 14866.75.
The same analysis applies to ES: ES also entered the zone of the Daily OB (4615.00-4486.25), which aligns with the Monthly BB-. Remembering the structure: Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal.
For ES, my retracement level is set at 4431.75 to 4423.25. The 4-hour OB is located at 4419 to 4404.50, with 15-minute FVG and BB+ within this range as well. If the 4-hour OB fails to hold, we can expect a Reversal Phase, leading to a test of the SSL at 4393.75. The Daily SIBI is found at 4381.75 to 4369.50.
However, a bounce from the Retracement Area should fill the Weekly SIBI at 4506.25. Additionally, there is a Daily Breakaway Gap to consider. Key levels to watch are 4524.00 and 4531.25, which correspond to the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB.