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Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 30th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 30th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, within a consolidation period likely followed by a breakout. Exercise caution and patience with trades. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5127-30, 5121 (major), 5108 Major Supports: 5083 (major), 5067 (major), 5039 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5136, 5150-55 (major), 5176 (major), 5191 (major) Major Resistances: 5205-5208 (major), 5230, 5246 (major), 5270-75 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation Breakout: Anticipate a breakout from the current 5120-5155 consolidation range. Plan accordingly for both bull and bear breakout scenarios. Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5121 for potential long entries. Focus on bids within the current range and knife-catches on major supports if deep flushes occur (5067, 5039). Short Opportunities: Due to the potential for a strong breakout, approach shorts cautiously. The 5176 and 5191 levels offer shorting opportunities, but with increased risk in the bullish environment. Utilize level-to-level profit-taking. Risk Management: Implement disciplined risk management in this potentially volatile period. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5120 support within the current consolidation range is crucial for bulls. Breakout and Retest: Look for an upside breakout from the 5155 resistance area, followed by a successful retest for further confirmation. Targeting Higher Levels: A breakout could trigger an upward move, focusing on targets at 5176, potentially extending to 5191. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5121 signals a downward move. Watch for a bounce/failed breakdown as an entry point for a short position, with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 30th, 2024 Market Dynamics and Corporate Earnings Global Activity: High activity with 1,300 company earnings reports expected; Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting closely watched for rate decision insights. Sector Highlights: Tech sector leads with major gains by Nvidia and Super Micro; Financials gain on rate cut hopes; Real Estate and Energy sectors lag. Economic Indicators and Central Bank Decisions FOMC Meeting: Coming up on 5/1 Jobs Data: Upcoming release expected to influence Fed's future decisions, especially on inflation control. International Markets Asian Markets: Mixed responses with Japan's Nikkei up and Shanghai Composite down. European Central Bank: Anticipated to follow Fed with potential rate cuts amid inflation challenges. Analysts' Projections and Market Sentiment Future Rate Cuts: Initially expected in mid-2024, now possibly delayed due to persistent high inflation. Investor Outlook: Cautiously optimistic but prepared for potential volatility due to uncertain monetary policy outcomes.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
GOLD recovers from key support areaOANDA:XAUUSD stabilized after hitting a more than two-week low as concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East subsided, while investors await key economic data to further clarify the timing of US interest rate cuts. America. Israel stepped up its attacks on the Gaza Strip, its worst shelling in weeks, but fears of a wider conflict eased after Iran said last week it had no plans to retaliate for the attack. apparent Israeli drone strike, financial markets showed signs of increased risk appetite and sold off safe-haven assets. Markets are also paying attention to signals from the United States, with US inflation data and a Federal Reserve statement suggesting that there may not be an interest rate cut in June. Recent comments from Fed officials suggest there is no need to cut interest rates immediately, reducing the appeal of zero-coupon gold. Markets now expect the Fed's first rate cut will most likely come in September. Markets will closely monitor US GDP data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data on Friday for further insight into the US economy and timing. In previous trading, the S&P Global PMI was weaker than expected, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates. This month, the manufacturing PMI index fell from 51.9 to 49.9. On the other hand, both the services and composite numbers fell to 50.9 from 51.7 and 52.1. According to the US Department of Commerce, other data for new home sales increased the most in six months, as building permits remained at a narrow level despite an upward revision of -3.7%. from -4.3%. The data helps gold prices recover but in general PMI data is not a data that can be used to guide the market so it will only work in the short term. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold fell sharply and gained support from an important technical area for a medium-term uptrend sent to readers throughout the publication at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and EMA21, it had the most recovery. stable and currently trying to hold above the $2,322 level. $2,322 is also a key technical level and if gold holds above it will likely continue to recover towards another key technical level of $2,365. Currently, technically speaking, gold still has all positive conditions with a medium-term trend from EMA21 and a long-term trend from the price channel. Meanwhile, the negative (bearish) case could widen further if the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level is broken below and the target level then targets the upper edge of the price channel and beyond the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. . This means the protection levels for open long positions should be placed just behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,334 – 2,365USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Monday, April 29th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 29th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, following a multi-day rally. However, proceed with caution as a period of price discovery and more complex action is likely after the strong movement. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5127 (major), 5117, 5102 (major), 5089 (major), 5082 Major Supports: 5068-72 (major), 5043 (major), 5034 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5150 (major), 5168-5171 (major), 5185 (major) Major Resistances: 5206-5208 (major), 5230, 5245 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation Anticipated: Expect a period of consolidation and complex price action after the recent surge. Overtrading can lead to losses. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5127 or 5102 as potential long entry points. Prioritize bids within the current range for a cautious approach. Short Opportunities: Target the 5185 level (resistance of the downtrend channel) for possible short positions. Consider level-to-level profit-taking within the range. Risk Management: Maintain disciplined risk management in this potentially volatile environment. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5127 or 5102 major supports is crucial for bulls to maintain control. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5150/5168-71 zones for a potential run to the next major target, 5185. Adding on Strength: In an ultra-bull case, look for bull flagging above 5127 to add exposure in anticipation of an upward move. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5102 could trigger a deeper retracement. True bear case resumes with a break below 5033. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 29th, 2024 Equity Market Overview Global Performance: S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose over 10% in Q1 2024; European and Asian indices also hit highs. Sector Trends: AI boom fuels tech sector gains; value stocks participate more in market rallies. Bond Market Dynamics Interest Rates: Delayed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve impacting bond yields. Performance: High yield bonds outperforming investment-grade due to favorable risk-return amidst volatile rates. Key Economic Indicators Inflation and Sentiment: Persistent inflation concerns; consumer sentiment improves slightly. GDP and Employment: Strong GDP growth and employment figures support bullish equity market sentiment. Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment Short-Term: Continued growth expected, but potential for increased volatility. Long-Term: Earnings growth modest in sectors like IT, significant in "Magnificent 7" companies. Federal Reserve Policy and Market Outlook Fed Stance: Maintains rates; cautious on inflation. Market Impact: S&P 500's performance influenced by rate cut expectations; market may face limited growth post-rate cuts.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Middle East has few new points, GOLD adjustsDuring the Asian session on Monday (April 22), spot gold had a gap and opened lower, falling to a low of $2,370/ounce as of press time. Gold is mainly under pressure because tensions around Israel and Iran appear to have cooled, which has eased risk aversion, thus putting pressure on gold prices. On April 19 local time, Israeli Army Radio said Israeli security officials confirmed that Israel had launched an attack on Iran. Iranian state television on April 19 confirmed that an air defense system specifically designed to intercept drones east of Isfahan, Iran, intercepted three small drones that day. According to local military officials in Isfahan, this interception did not cause any casualties or damage. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on January 19 that reports of Israeli attacks on targets in Iran had not yet been confirmed and that Iran had no immediate plans to retaliate against Israel. According to the report, the above mentioned senior Iranian officials also expressed doubts about whether Israel was responsible. Iran: “Foreign sources about the incident have not yet been confirmed. We have not suffered any external attacks and discussions on this issue are more about infiltration than attack.” According to Reuters, Israeli leaders and the military remained silent. Iranian media's reaction to the attack was also silent. There are no new points in the development of geopolitical conflicts, all attacks are just in the media "literally called gangsters". There are no new points and no risk of escalation. Gold will be under selling pressure because it is considered a safe haven asset during market periods with many risks and especially geopolitical risks. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data. If US GDP data is stronger than expected, the US dollar could hold its ground and put pressure on gold. Surveys show that the initial quarterly real GDP rate in the United States in the first quarter is expected to increase 2.1%. According to CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, there is a less than 20% chance that the Fed will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in June. On Friday, the US will release data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. The core U.S. PCE price index in March is expected to rise at an annual rate of 2.6%, compared with a 2.5% gain in February. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold dropped significantly this morning, it again received support from the technical level of $2,365. Note to readers in the previous issue and was limited by this level. . Temporarily, gold still has enough conditions to increase in price technically as the short-term uptrend remains stable with the price channel and support level at the technical point of 2,365 USD. Maintaining above 2,365 USD gives gold the ability to retest the 1% Fibonacci level at 2,382 USD. However, a break below $2,365 would open the door for a broader bearish correction with the target level then likely to be the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. Support: 2,336USD Resistance: 2,358 – 2,382 – 2,400 – 2,417 – 2,431USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2414 - 2412 ⚰️SL: 2418 ⬆️TP1: 2407 ⬆️TP2: 2402 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2335 - 2337 ⚰️SL: 2331 ⬆️TP1: 2342 ⬆️TP2: 2347
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Risks cool down, GOLD is sold off to a critical pointOANDA:XAUUSD have fallen sharply from recent highs due to the impact of reduced geopolitical risks and a stronger US Dollar. Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, have maintained a hawkish stance on interest rates, which has weighed on gold prices. Sentiment has changed as expectations for a Fed rate cut were revised to a potentially longer than previously expected June date. Iran downplayed the retaliatory Israeli drone strike on April 19, which was previously seen as an escalation of the conflict. Federal Reserve officials have made hawkish comments recently. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a lack of progress in fighting inflation is the reason interest rates must stay high for longer. Chicago Fed President Goolsby also agreed with Powell. Goolsby said progress on disinflation had "stalled". Notably, Goolsby is one of the most dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Investors now await the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report on Friday for further direction on the outlook for US interest rate cuts. In fact, in recent times, gold has been deeply affected by major and sudden events. The media war in the Middle East has caused gold to increase sharply followed by news that suddenly cooled the conflict. Sticking to a rigid trend is a mistake that takes a lot of time to correct. There are some people who have won by following the market risk and making purchases and then receiving certain profits. But when the risk suddenly disappears, not reacting in time or knowing but not accepting the change is a huge mistake that brings heavy losses. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has broken out of a short-term downtrend after breaking below the $2,365 level noted in the weekly edition and is now trading at a very important support area for the uptrend. medium term while maintaining price activity above EMA21. Meanwhile, if the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level continues to be broken below gold will continue to be at risk of further declines with the target level then at the upper edge of the price channel and more than the 0.328% Fibonacci level. This means if open long positions are taken they need to be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. During the day, gold is expected to recover slightly but is not yet qualified for a strong price increase with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,325 – 2,305USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2357 ⬆️TP2: 2352 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2282 - 2284 ⚰️SL: 2279 ⬆️TP1: 2289 ⬆️TP2: 2294
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Friday, April 26th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 26th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls maintaining short-term control but facing the after-hours earnings event, which could bring sudden volatility. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5067, 5058 (major), 5048 Major Supports: 5036-33 (major), 5010 (major), 4996-5000 (major), 4935-40 (major), 4904-08 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5080-82 (major), 5092 (major), 5108 (major), 5126-29 (major), 5145-50 (major), 5177-81 (major) Major Resistances: 5222, 5243-46 (major), 5272 (major) Trading Strategy Earnings Volatility: Be prepared for unpredictable price action and adjust your strategy in real-time. Trading the Range: Expect price to play within the broad 5036-5126 range. Exercise caution and consider bids/shorts within the range rather than chasing direction. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5067 or 5058 after earnings. Focus on bids cautiously within the range, prioritizing the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs at major levels. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5126-29, 5145-50, or the major 5177-81 zone if reached. Given earnings, approach shorts very cautiously. Profit-Taking: Use level-to-level profit-taking on any position taken, given the increased volatility risk. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the current 5036-33 major support is critical. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5108 zone for a potential run to the next major target areas of 5126-29 and 5145-50. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5036 triggers the downside move. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 26th, 2024 Economic Environment March PCE inflation report and its impact on the Fed's policy decisions. Apollo Global's acquisition of US Silica and implications for the materials sector. Stock Market Updates Mixed signals from global markets amidst geopolitical tensions. Bank of Japan's interest rate policy. Global Market News Market response to various corporate earnings and announcements. Additional Market News Bond market dynamics and potential interest rate cuts. Gold's performance and investment implications. Currency market updates and the impact of the Bank of Japan's actions. Additional Market Insights and News Economic Indicators and Outlook US GDP and Economic Growth: Analysis of the latest GDP report and its implications for growth trends. Corporate Earnings Outlook: Forecasts for 2024 and sector-specific performance expectations. Inflation and Interest Rates: Understanding the relationship between inflation, Fed policy, and corporate earnings. Labor Market Dynamics: Assessing the health of the labor market and its impact on consumer spending and corporate profitability. Technological Advancements and Market Shifts Generative AI and Business Transformation: How is GenAI impacting decision-making and efficiencies in various industries. Quantum Computing and Competitive Edge: Exploring the potential of quantum computing in various sectors and its implications for competitive advantage. Sustainable Technology Initiatives: The increasing focus on green technologies and the integration of sustainability with innovation. Industry Cloud Platforms (ICPs): Examining the adoption of ICPs and their role in accelerating digital transformation. Reminder: The after-hours earnings events introduce major volatility risk. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 4.21 - 4.26Last Week : Last week Globex opened and pushed out of Value of 5227 - 5066 Range, by RTH Open we were able to make a push over 5207.50 the Edge low but we needed acceptance over 5207 - 04 area and instead selling came in which took us through the Mean and right through VAL of that Range without any buyers being at VAL, instead we got covering and buying under Value which gave us the consolidation between the bottom Edge and VAL of that Range until Mid Week. After shorts were done covering and no stronger buying came in to push us back inside Value we continued for the lower Stops through the 5086 - 66 Edge and eventually made a move from the Edge to VAH, Mean and VAL of the lower Range. This time around we found buying at VAL of the range and we finished Friday with a pulled back to VAH, push above Value and saw selling come in to bring the price back inside Value and close at the Mean of the range, this was perfect scenario to end the week as we know markets like to find areas to balance in and closing inside Value is signaling potential balance. This Week : Going into this week we have now accepted in this 5086 - 4925 Range, Month End is upon us, and we have our Settlement Ranges and Supply above VAH and above 5086 - 66 Edge. Can the market continue lower ? Yes. Can the market get a big bounce and go back over 5050 - 60 - 80s? Sure it's possible. Anything can happen but for now to keep us grounded we have few things that the structure is showing us. We can clearly see Supply and Sellers above VAH, we can see that around VAL and under Value we have buying or at least SIZE short covering which has and can keep us up, if we didn't have that then Friday we would have kept going and taken that VAL and ON Low which we created on the scary Thursday flush. Of course doesn't mean covering will still be there this week and that sellers will still be over VAH but until it shows us otherwise we can't force for big continuations under Value or hope for big bounces over 5050 areas. One of the scenarios to look for after big moves up and down like we had is for market to find some balance, could this be the Range we will do it in ? If that will be the case then we can spend quite a bit of time around this 5086 - 4925 Range until we see clear moves and acceptances over/under it. If this will be the case we will look to spend most of our time trading around Value of this Range and pushes outside of Value to find their way back in. This could be the case for more than just this week but for now we will play it week at the time because who knows. We will want to focus mostly on 5066 - 5013 // 5019 - 4967 and 4972 - 20 Intraday Ranges. Trading level to level catching 10-15 point moves between them is ideal if we start balancing in Value because that tells us we have buyers and sellers, might need to be patient letting the moves properly set up as the volatility has been pretty crazy recently, not a time to be a hero forcing for big moves in my opinion. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5019 - 4967 Key Resistance 5019 - 13.75 Means 5001.75 - 4997.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25 Key Support 4972 - 67 IF Accept Under 4972 - 67 Means 4955.75 - 4952.50 // 4940.50 - 37.75 Key Support and Edge Low 4925.25 - 20 IF Accept Over 5019 - 13.75 Means 5034 - 31 // 5048.75 - 45.75 Key Resistance and Bottom of top Edge 5066.50 - 60.75
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
EURUSD is at risk after information is revealed about FOMC, SNBOANDA:EURUSD NEWS AND ANALYSIS - ECB officials eye June meeting for first rate cut, SNB delivers a surprise cut - Dollar drop appears short-lived as EUR/USD heeds resistance ECB OFFICIALS EYE JUNE MEETING FOR FIRST RATE CUT, SNB DELIVERS A SURPRISE CUT Despite the EU and US having different growth prospects, the ECB remains cautious about cutting rates. They are eyeing up the June meeting as significant. Wage growth has been a focus, but it seems the ECB is running out of reasons to delay rate cuts. Today, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 bps to normalize monetary policy. This decision was prompted by challenges in the external environment, the appreciation of the Swiss Franc, and inflation below two percent expected to continue next year and in 2026. DOLLAR DROP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS OANDA:EURUSD HEEDS RESISTANCE Yesterday's dovish Fed announcement led to a decline in expectations of a 25 basis point hike, causing the dollar to drop. As a result, EUR/USD saw gains and tested resistance levels at 1.0942 and 1.0960, which correspond to Fibonacci retracements from the recent decline. The 50 and 200-day simple moving averages and the support level at 1.0830 are important factors to consider.
by Xayah_trading
1
EURUSD stabilized and recovered modestly over the past few daysAfter enduring notable losses last week, EURUSD steadied and mounted a modest comeback over the past few days, rebounding off the psychological 1.0600 level and pushing past the 1.0650 mark. If the pair continues to recover in the coming days, resistance is expected at 1.0695 and 1.0725 thereafter. On further strength, all eyes will be on 1.0820. Conversely, should sellers reassert themselves and take charge of the market, technical support becomes apparent at 1.0600. Bulls must vigorously defend this technical floor; any failure to do so could exacerbate bearish momentum in the near term, paving the way for a deeper decline towards the 2023 lows near 1.0450.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD stabilized and rebounded off the psychological 1.0600After steep losses in recent days, EURUSD stabilized and rebounded off the psychological 1.0600 level on Wednesday, pushing past the 1.0650 mark. If the pair manages to build upon its recovery in the days ahead, resistance lies at 1.0695, followed by 1.0725. On further strength, the focus will be on 1.0820. On the other hand, if sellers return and regain control of the market, technical support emerges at 1.0600. Bulls must staunchly defend this technical floor; a failure to do so could reinforce bearish pressure in the near term, resulting in a deeper pullback toward the 2023 lows located near 1.0450.
by Xayah_trading
Technical outlook for EUR/USDOANDA:EURUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD jumped on Wednesday, with bulls seemingly determined to challenge trendline resistance at 1.0950 after the FOMC announcement. In the event of a retest, sellers will need to fend off the advance; otherwise, there will be minimal obstacles to a rally towards 1.0970, a key Fibonacci level. Alternatively, if upside pressure begins to fade and sellers spark a bearish reversal, support can be identified at 1.0890, followed by 1.0850, where an ascending trendline converges with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
by Xayah_trading
1
USDJPY is close to 151.958The Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased its policy interest rate to 0.00-0.10% in March, bringing interest rates out of negative territory. Although the yen was expected to increase, the market witnessed a decline in the yen, causing the OANDA:USDJPY exchange rate to increase. Although the Bank of Japan gave limited guidance on further policy tightening, markets viewed the move as a moderate interest rate hike, so the yen's depreciation fueled sentiment. that the central bank could intervene to support the yen. In addition to great nonfarm payrolls data, hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve officials helped US bond yields reach their highest level in more than four months and also supported USD/JPY. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit 4.42% on Monday, its highest since November 27. Higher US bond yields and the USD push USD/JPY higher still. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY has not yet broken the confluence resistance level by the upper edge of the price channel (a) and the 1% Fibonacci level of 151,958 to qualify for a new bullish cycle. While USD/JPY still has a primary bias to the upside, sustained activity below 151.958 provides room for short-term downside corrections without changing the primary uptrend. In the long term, the main trend of USD/JPY is up with the main price channel (a) as the long-term trend and the short-term uptrend supported by EMA21. The main uptrend in USD/JPY will be highlighted by the following technical levels, and traders should also pay attention to the possibility of a slight correction occurring. Support: 150,767 – 150,102 Resistance: 151.958
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY edged lower on WednesdayUSDJPY edged lower on Wednesday, stepping off its multi-decade high established in the previous session when the pair hit 154.78. Should the downturn reversal gain momentum later this week, support can be spotted at 153.20 and 152.00 thereafter. Below these levels, 150.80 may become a focal point. Conversely, if USDJPY resumes its rally, resistance looms at 154.78, followed by 156.00, the upper limit of a short-term ascending channel. Despite the pair’s bullish bias, caution is warranted due to overbought market conditions and the growing possibility of FX intervention by the Japanese government.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY broke above the 152.00 resistance levelThe US dollar surged on Wednesday due to higher-than-expected US inflation numbers. This led to USDJPY reaching new highs for 2024 and its strongest level since 1990. The March Consumer Price Index report showed persistent inflation in the North American economy, reducing expectations for a June FOMC rate cut. Headline CPI increased by 3.5% YoY, surpassing forecasts and accelerating from February's 3.2%. The core gauge, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, also exceeded expectations at 3.8%, indicating a potential increase in price pressures. Wall Street reacted swiftly, pushing U.S. Treasury yields upwards across the board on bets that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to maintain a restrictive position for an extended period. Against this backdrop, the U.S. 2-year yield jumped more than 20 basis points, coming within striking distance from recapturing the 5.0% psychological mark. Traders also adjusted their view on the FOMC’s trajectory, pushing back on the timing and magnitude of future reductions in borrowing costs. That said, futures contracts now price in less than 40 basis points of easing for the year, with the first potential cut likely occurring in September. The table below shows current meeting probabilities. Fed Chair Powell recently downplayed inflation concerns at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum. However, recent high CPI figures may prompt a reassessment of policy outlook and lead to more hawkish rhetoric, which could benefit the U.S. dollar. While the dollar may consolidate in the short term, it's uncertain if it can continue to appreciate against the yen as Japanese authorities may intervene to support their currency. OANDA:USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDJPY broke through resistance at 152.00, reaching its highest level since June 1990. Without intervention, speculators may attack the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel near 155.70. If prices fall below 152.00, support is expected at 150.90 and failure to defend this area could lead to a retracement towards the 50-day moving average at 150.00, with channel support near 149.25 being closely watched.
by Xayah_trading
2
USDJPY does not show a clear directionUS DOLLAR FORECAST – OANDA:USDJPY - U.S. dollar loses ground on Monday ahead of high-impact events later in the week - Core PCE data and Powell’s speech on Friday will be the center of attention - This article examines the technical outlook for USD/JPY The dollar fell slightly on Monday, but losses were limited by higher U.S. Treasury yields. Traders took profits after last week's strong performance, while others held back due to upcoming high-impact events like the release of core PCE data and a speech by Powell on Friday. OANDA:USDJPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY showed no clear direction on Monday after last week's surge, with the pair hovering just under last year’s peak at 152.00. A breach of this barrier might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene in support of the yen, potentially limiting the breakout's longevity. Nevertheless, absent FX intervention, a surge beyond 152.00 could set the stage for a push towards 154.40. Alternatively, if bears wrest control from bulls and initiate a reversal, support can be spotted at 150.90, followed by 149.75 subsequently. The pair might stabilize around these levels upon a retest, but if a breakdown occurs, a drop towards the 50-day simple moving average at 148.90 could be in the cards.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY is trading within a limited rangeOANDA:USDJPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY traded within a confined range on Thursday, lingering just below overhead resistance at 152.00. This technical barrier warrants close attention, as a breakout might prompt intervention from the Japanese government to support the yen. Should such a scenario unfold, a rapid reversal below 150.90 could occur ahead a possible drop towards the 50-day simple moving average at 149.75. In the event that USD/JPY takes out the 152.00 level and Tokyo refrains from intervening, opting instead to allow market forces to find a new equilibrium for the exchange rate, buyers might gain confidence to launch a bullish attack on 155.25, a key barrier created by the upper boundary of an ascending channel in place since December of last year.
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 25th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 25th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls maintaining short-term control. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5088-92 (major), 5082, 5077 (major), 5067 Major Supports: 5054-57 (major), 5033-36 (major), 5005-10 (major), 4966 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5104 (major), 5115-20 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5171-75 (major) Major Resistances: 5191 (major), 5225, 5240-45 (major) Trading Strategy Trading the Chop Zone: The 5088-5115 range is currently a choppy, congested zone. Exercise caution with overtrading and consider sniping within the zone over chasing direction. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5088-92 or 5077. After earnings, focus on bids cautiously within the range, prioritizing the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs at major levels. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5115 or the major 5171-75 zone if reached. Given earnings, a breakout of the current flag pattern is possible and could be considered, but use caution. Profit-Taking: With Meta earnings, use level-to-level profit-taking on any position. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the current bull flag structure (5088-5115) is critical. Look for a base building within this range or a breakout. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5133-36/5155 zone for a potential run to the next major target, 5171-75. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5077 triggers the downside move. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 25th, 2024 Earnings Releases Meta Earnings: Reports weak revenue guidance, drops 16%.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
AUDNZD entered a period of consolidation as prices fell slightlyAUDNZD entered into a period of consolidation as prices eased in the form of a bull flag pattern. After yesterday’s close, a bullish continuation appears on the cards for the pair despite today’s intraday pullback from the daily high. A move below 1.0885 suggests a failure of the bullish continuation but as long as prices hold above this marker, the longer-term bullish bias and the prospect of a bullish continuation remains constructive. One thing to keep in mind is the risk of a shorter-term pullback as the RSI approaches overbought once more. Upside target appears at 1.1052 (June 2023 high) and 1.0885 to the downside.
by Xayah_trading
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 22 - April 26]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased mainly due to escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. Gold prices recorded a fifth consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak since January 2023. Despite strong gains in the dollar and bond yields, expectations of an interest rate cut in 2024 have faded. decline. Israel's response comes a week after Iran's drone and missile attacks on Israel pushed gold prices to a record high of over $2,426 an ounce. Recent statements from Fed officials suggest there is no rush to cut interest rates in the short term. This view is echoed not only by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell but also by John Williams of the New York Fed and Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed). According to Kitco, in addition to persistent inflation, it is important to emphasize that the continuously tightening labor market reinforces the view of a strong economy, supporting the "soft landing" scenario, indicating that the The expected first interest rate cut will be delayed. It is worth noting that the market focus has shifted slightly from Fed policy to geopolitical risks, influencing investor strategies and gold pricing. Israel reportedly struck back at Iran on Friday morning, hitting a military site with drones, but it was limited and did not appear to cause much damage. Gold prices rose nearly 1.6% after concerns about widespread conflict in the Middle East disrupted global markets following the above event. Fed officials agree that interest rate cuts are not urgent. The market currently predicts the probability of an interest rate cut in September is about 67%. High interest rates make holding non-yielding gold less attractive. Next week is a week of little economic data of note, as traders focus on March U.S. new home sales on Tuesday and March durable goods on Wednesday. On Thursday, there will be the release of the first quarter US GDP report, quarterly PCE data, weekly initial jobless claims and pending home sales data. The week's most notable data will appear on Thursday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold remains stable with technical conditions supporting an upward price trend as reported to readers throughout recent publications. The short-term uptrend is noticed by the price channel and the medium-term trend is noticed by the EMA21. The weekly close above the 1% Fibonacci extension opens up the prospect of continued upside next week with a near-term target of $2,400 full price and beyond all-time highs. Currently, there are no notable resistance points to set expectations for a possible downward adjustment. If gold is sold off below 2,365 USD, it will have conditions to technically adjust downward to the target level. then at the 0.786% Fibonacci extension point. The trading plan for next week will consider buying if the price falls and adjusting to around 2320, and selling if the price increases to reach 2473. Looking ahead, gold remains tilted towards the bullish case and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,382 – 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417 – 2,431USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading