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Middle East escalates, GOLD recovery limited by 2,400 USDWhen tensions in the Middle East suddenly escalated over the weekend, after the opening of the Asian trading session on Monday (July 29), spot gold prices jumped by 15 USD in the short term and gold prices sometimes exceeded past the mark of 2,400 USD/ounce. On July 27, a rocket attack hit a soccer field in Megidar Shams, a town in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers playing soccer. 44 others were injured. This was Israel's worst civilian loss since Hamas launched attacks on villages and military bases in southern Israel from the Gaza Strip last October. On the night of July 28, local time, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement saying that after a 4-hour meeting, the Israeli government's Security Cabinet meeting ended late at night on the 28th and the meeting authorized Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Prime Minister of Israel. Despite recent volatility, gold maintains its underlying bias toward solid gains as markets increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by the end of the quarter. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market has fully priced in a September rate cut. The latest inflation data won't stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in September. The Fed is increasingly expected to lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September, at least at its meeting on this week. While the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting will be the main economic event this week, some attention will also be directed to the U.S. Department of Labor due to July nonfarm payrolls data. announced on Friday. In addition to cooling inflation, expectations of slowing growth in the US labor market will cause the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before the end of the year. The Fed is not the only central bank holding a monetary policy meeting this week. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, with market expectations that the central bank will also cut interest rates. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting later on Tuesday. Notable economic data and events Tuesday: US consumer confidence; JOLTS Jobs; Monetary policy decisions of the Bank of Japan Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Payrolls; US Pending Home Sales, Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision; US weekly unemployment claims, ISM manufacturing PMI Friday: US nonfarm payrolls Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has recovered, temporary gains are still limited by the original price level of 2,400 USD, which is also noted as an important target resistance level. For the gold price to have adequate conditions for upside, it needs to break above the $2,400 technical level and the next targeted target level at $2,408 in the short term, more so than the $2,437 price point. of Fibonacci retracement 0.236%. Temporarily, gold is not yet qualified to form a complete bullish cycle, while once gold falls below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level it will tend to retest the 0.618% Fibonacci level, and a Once the $2,362 level is broken below, a new bearish cycle is likely with a target around $2,329. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans more to the downside with conditions for a new bullish cycle noted above. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,385 – 2,378 – 2,362USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2414 - 2412 ⚰️SL: 2418 ⬆️TP1: 2407 ⬆️TP2: 2402 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2377 - 2379 ⚰️SL: 2373 ⬆️TP1: 2384 ⬆️TP2: 2389
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has more technical pressure, ready for major eventsOn Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day meeting and announce its interest rate decision. The market generally believes that this meeting will not make a decision to cut interest rates but will provide guidance for an interest rate cut in September. The fact that the Fed will not cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting has been fully priced in by the market, so interest rate guidance in September and the end of the year will be the focus of this FOMC meeting. Traders prepare for a series of market events, in addition to a midweek policy decision from the Federal Reserve, decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, as well as the nonfarm payrolls report. The US economy on Friday will also have a significant impact on the general market and the gold market in particular. In Asian markets on July 30, OANDA:XAUUSD recovered from the $2,378 level noted by readers in the weekly edition, but overall it needs to recover much more strongly to be able to get the conditions for Expectations of a new bullish cycle. The point worth noting is that the original price level of 2,400 USD will be the nearest resistance and is also very important. If gold breaks and maintains above this level, it will have enough conditions to technically increase in price. The target level after breaking $2,400 is $2,408 in the short term and more likely is $2,437. Meanwhile, currently, the gold price still has a more bearish position with initial resistance from EMA21 and the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level at 2,385 USD. Once gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will open a new downtrend with the target level then being around 2,329USD. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the oversold level, showing that there is still room to decline. During the day, the current position is heavily tilted to the downside with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,378 – 2,362USD Resistance: 2,385 – 2,390 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2419 - 2417 ⚰️SL: 2423 ⬆️TP1: 2412 ⬆️TP2: 2407 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2351 - 2353 ⚰️SL: 2347 ⬆️TP1: 2358 ⬆️TP2: 2363
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD fell slightly after reaching initial target, FOMC, PowellOANDA:XAUUSD decreased slightly after a significant recovery period, at the Asian trading session on July 31, gold decreased slightly from the Fibonacci level of 0.382% to 2,405USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of about 0.25% on the day. Middle East News On the evening of July 30 local time, an Israeli drone attacked a Hezbollah target in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. It is known that the drone fired 3 missiles, causing a building to collapse. Currently, attacks in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital have left 3 people dead and 74 others injured. The Israeli military announced it killed a top Hezbollah commander in an airstrike in Beirut on Tuesday in retaliation for a cross-border rocket attack three days ago. As sent to readers in the weekly edition, new points are emerging in the Middle East situation, and escalating geopolitical risks are always a potential motivating support for shelter demand. safe. Pay attention to the FOMC and Jerome Powell The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting ends Wednesday's trading session, with markets expecting the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged but could signal policy easing as early as September. At 01:00 Hanoi time on Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision, at 01:30 the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. Investors will need to closely scrutinize the Fed's policy statement and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for any information that supports expectations of the first rate cut in September. Previously, on July 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a dovish signal during an interview at an event at the Economic Club of Washington. Powell said second-quarter economic data gives policymakers more confidence that inflation is falling toward the Fed's 2% target. The comments could pave the way for interest rate cuts in the near future. At that time, Powell indicated that he would not wait until inflation reached the 2% target to cut interest rates, because the impact of monetary policy has a lag, and keeping interest rates too high for a long time will cause problems. Excessive inhibition for the economy. He further explained that if we wait until inflation reaches the 2% target to cut interest rates, we may have to wait too long because the tightening monetary policy is currently being applied, or the current tightening policy will still continue. impact and can push the inflation rate below 2%. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has surpassed the original price level of 2,400 USD, after reaching the initial target level, please pay attention to the weekly publication at 2,408 USD, the price point of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382%, and the upward momentum. The price of gold is also limited by this level. In the immediate future, keeping above the original price of 2,400 USD will be a positive signal for gold. But for gold prices to qualify for a longer bull run it needs to break above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level then target around $2,437. In the short term, gold will be supported by the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the lower edge of the price channel. During the day, the trend of gold prices is providing the conditions for a bullish outlook and notable technical points are listed as follows. Support: 2,400 – 2,390 – 2,385USD Resistance: 2,408 – 2,437USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2434 - 2432 ⚰️SL: 2438 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2422 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2387 - 2389 ⚰️SL: 2383 ⬆️TP1: 2394 ⬆️TP2: 2399
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-08-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Yesterday I was neutral until one side clearly gains control again and boi did the bears deliver today. 600 point drop from Wednesday high and a close below 18200. This is the biggest bear bar for many months and will be part of W1/leg1 of the new bear trend. We will most likely make new lows below 17800 next week. We have a nice looking bear channel that leads to the July low, from where we can expect the W2/two legged correction to form a broader channel which we can grind down to at least 17000 over the next weeks. If bulls somehow manage to break above 18400 again, I am wrong and we continue inside the trading range which we have been in for 5 months now. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) / probably the new bear trend has started today. key levels: 17800 - 18400 bull case: Yesterday I wrote that bulls could not get a single close above 18600 and market can test one direction/price only so much before it tries the opposite. Bulls gave up today and now we test the lows. The best bulls can hope for is to keep it above 17800 and continue inside the trading range. Given that we just had many earnings releases and the negative GDP print, I absolutely favor the bears. Invalidation is below 17800. bear case: Bears closed below the recent 33 bars and demonstrated strength. This selling will most likely get another leg down but now the primary goal for the bears is to keep any pullback shallow and preferably below 18300 to create two big bear gaps. Bear gap #2 will get smaller tomorrow but it should stay open, otherwise bears might fumble it again. Invalidation is above 18300. short term: full bear mode for 17844 or lower. There I expect a pullback to form a broader channel we will grind down over the next months. Buckle up. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Had shorts from 18700 and added 18900. Took most off today and leaving a runner for 17844. trade of the day: Short since bar 7, no ifs or buts. Bar closed below the previous 35 bars and at it’s low. Perfect signal and entry bar.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
WTI crude oil recovered nearly 5%, supported but still limitedTVC:USOIL rebounded sharply nearly 5% on Wednesday, far from the nearly 2-month low reached on Tuesday after the assassination of the leader of Hamas in Iran, investors fear the conflict in the Middle East could widen and the volume US crude oil inventories boosted. The Federal Reserve sent the market a signal in September to cut interest rates, and the US Dollar index dropped sharply, also creating momentum for oil prices. Government data showed US crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels last week, while the market expected a decline of 1.1 million barrels. Crude oil inventories fell for the fifth consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since January 2021. The news that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran has increased tensions in the Middle East overnight. The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% on Wednesday, which also supported oil prices. The Fed kept interest rates steady but left open the possibility of reducing borrowing costs at its next meeting in September. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ alliance consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia will meet today (Thursday). The alliance is expected to maintain current production policies and lift some output cuts starting in October. During this trading day, investors also need to pay attention to deeper market developments regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, pay attention to new news on the geopolitical situation, pay attention to the US ISM manufacturing PMI for July and initial unemployment numbers. US claims for the week ending July 27. On the daily chart of WTI crude oil, despite a very strong recovery since the lower edge of the confluence price channel with the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level, WTI crude oil is currently limited in its recovery by the Fibonacci 0.50%. Meanwhile, the bearish structure is still unaffected with the price channel as the main trend and pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as WTI crude oil maintains price activity within the channel and below Ema21, the technical outlook remains bearish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 77.10 – 75.07USD Resistance: 78.52 – 79.94USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
WTI recovered after hitting a 2-week low TVC:USOIL prices recovered after hitting a nearly two-week low after a surge in U.S. refining activity last week pushed gasoline and crude inventories down more than expected. US crude inventories fell 3.4 million barrels in the week ended July 5 to 445.1 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations for a decline of 1.3 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell 2 million barrels to 229.7 million barrels, much higher than market expectations of a decline of 600,000 barrels during the July 4 holiday week. EIA data showed distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 4.9 million barrels to 124.6 million barrels, compared with forecasts for an increase of 800,000 barrels. EIA said crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma distribution center fell by 702,000 barrels last week. EIA said refinery processing capacity increased by 317,000 barrels per day last week and capacity utilization increased by 1.9%. Gulf Coast refinery capacity utilization reached its highest level since June 2023. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he is not ready to declare inflation defeated, but he believes the US is still on track to achieve stable prices and low unemployment. The Federal Reserve will make interest rate decisions "as needed," downplaying suggestions that a September rate cut could be seen as a political move ahead of the presidential election in the fall. Investors are betting on an interest rate cut in September, which could boost economic growth and oil demand. Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September rose to 74% from about 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch data. OPEC on Wednesday maintained its forecast for relatively strong global oil demand growth this year and next, saying resilient economic growth and air travel would support summer fuel use. However, news about the geopolitical situation can still put pressure on oil prices. The Israeli delegation arrived in Doha to hold four-party negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza. This trading day will focus on changes in the US CPI and initial jobless claims in June, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials and news related to the geopolitical situation. The general market focus still revolves around macro data, inflation, Fed, interest rates, and geopolitical situation. Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, after WTI crude oil corrected to the downside, it took support from the 21-day moving average (EMA21) to rebound, and the upside recovery is also being limited by the Fibonacci retracement level. retreat 0.236%. If WTI crude oil can continue to recover to take price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it has the conditions to continue to increase in price with a target level then around 84.43USD in the short term. Meanwhile, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook. For the bearish case, WTI crude oil sold off below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, this also confirmed the trend price channel was broken to give way to a downtrend with a target of around 77.70USD. During the day, the technical trend of WTI crude oil is bullish with notable technical levels listed as follows. Support: 81.24 – 80.04USD Resistance: 82.94 – 84.43USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
Factors supporting WTI crude oil, weekly outlook analysisThis week, the crude oil market, especially WTI crude oil, experienced a series of fluctuations, ultimately ending the weekend trading session with a slight decrease in WTI crude oil futures prices. Despite pressure from a stronger US Dollar, growing US oil demand and falling fuel inventories supported crude markets, while geopolitical tensions added to market uncertainty. The strength of the US Dollar has had a significant impact on the crude oil market. The dollar hit a seven-week high against major currencies, making dollar-denominated crude more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially curbing oil demand. Global. However, strong US economic activity, especially business activity hitting a 26-month high in June, has provided some support to oil demand. WTI crude oil increased 3.23% this week to 80.52 USD/barrel. Brent crude oil increased 2.53% this week to $84.18/barrel. Supply and demand dynamics: Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that total petroleum product supply increased significantly last week to 21.1 million barrels per day, indicating that the US oil market is tightening. The arrival of the summer driving season, along with falling inventories, has pushed U.S. gasoline futures higher, reflecting growing demand. Geopolitical factors: Geopolitical tensions, especially the conflict between Israel and Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, have added pressure on crude oil markets. These events have raised concerns about supply disruptions, which could pressure oil prices. General opinion: Rising oil demand over the summer and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to be key factors that continue to drive crude oil markets, especially WTI crude. In addition, readers also need to pay attention to outstanding developments in the Fed's monetary policy because it will also affect oil prices because crude oil is priced in US Dollars. Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is gaining important upside potential with an uptrend formed and noticed by the price channel. On the other hand, WTI crude oil is still stable above the 0.382% Fibonacci level, showing the possibility that it will continue towards the next Fibonacci level at 0.236% in the near future. Along with that is support from the EMA21 moving average. In the short term, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel, above the EMA21, and the RSI has not reached overbought levels, it still has a bullish technical outlook. Notable levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 80.04 – 77.70USD Resistance: 82.94USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
2024-07-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: The bull trend line around 5430 held and market bounced for 150 points since yesterday. The 50% pb from this recent sell off was 5578 and today’s high was 5588, while closing at 5556. Tells you that market is respecting the 50% pb and could not close the month above it, which is good for the bears. Where does this leave us going into August? Absolutely neutral imo. Bear trend line is broken and the big bull trend line held. Bulls want a retest of 5700 and bears to stay below the 50% pb and sell off again, because at this angle they have a decent channel downwards to 5000. My channel on the chart was drawn last week. current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. key levels: 5400 - 5600 bull case: Bulls had the expected bounce and yesterday I said the selloff after hours was most likely a bear trap. So it was and bull want to keep the momentum going and closing the bear gap to 5640 next. If they can close that, they will most likely also retest 5700 but as of now, they could not close above 5600 and are under the 50% pullback. Had they closed the month above 5600, I would be much more bullish going into August. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears kept it below the 50% pb, around the daily ema and technically bulls just got a breakout retest of 5560. The selling into today’s close was strong enough to not expect an easy melt up through 5600 tomorrow. Bears also have going for them, that with this lower high, they have formed a proper channel, which could lead us to 5000 over the next months. 5570ish is the current price and the worst place to trade. Can go either direction and I will wait for strong momentum to either side. Invalidation is above 5600. short term: Neutral af. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-07-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: July is behind us, so let’s take a look at the daily chart since the weekly and monthly do not help in any way, analysing this. For dax it’s easy today because we absolutely have no Idea when it wants to go where, since my calculated 50% of this range is 18520 and market closed July at 18608. Absolutely neutral. We know for sure that the recent bull trend is over and we are in a trading range. We are in the middle of the triangle on the daily chart and you have to play the range until it’s clearly broken. Does the weekly or monthly chart tell us anything different? Absolutely not. The daily 20ema is completely flat and we just have to wait for one side to gain control and make new highs or new lows. Bullish above 18800 and bearish below 18100. Going into August I do expect more volatility and even if Bulls get another ath, odds are great that we will make new lows below 17800 over the next 2 months. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls made lower highs this week but could not get one close above 18600. They are weak as the bears and that is why we are mostly moving sideways. Bulls tried enough to get above 18700 by now and I do think they will give up tomorrow/Friday and we test 18300 or lower again. They would need a strong move above 18800 for higher prices. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Bears are weak too but at least they mostly keep it below 18600. They need to start producing lower lows again and test back to 18300. I do think odds favor the bears over the next weeks for lower lows but as of now, market is in absolute balance. First target for the bears tomorrow is a 1h close below 18500. Invalidation is above 18700. short term: neutral. Bullish above 18700 and bearish below 18500. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. —unchanged
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
GOLD rose 1% after US inflation dataGold prices increased 1% on Friday (July 26), as US Government bond yields fell due to optimism that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates in September, after data showed that inflation in the US increased slightly in June. At the end of the trading session on July 26, the spot gold contract increased 1% to 2,388.05 USD/oz, after hitting the lowest level since July 9, 2024 on July 25. Gold futures contracts added 1.2% to 2,381 USD/oz. US economic data was mixed to weaker today, showing inflationary pressures and weakening economic activity, paving the way for the Fed to lower interest rates twice this year. Fed policymakers on July 26 got fresh evidence of progress in the fight against inflation, raising expectations that they will use next week's meeting to signal a rate cut. Rates start in September. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals. The US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis said the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in the US in June inched up 0.1% compared to the previous month, after remaining unchanged in May. After the inflation data, the 10-year US Government bond yield fell to its lowest level in a week. Meanwhile, physical demand in India, the world's second largest consumer, received a boost when the country reduced import taxes on precious metals earlier this week. Gold prices in India also surged to its highest level in a decade this week.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fell more than 1%, the bullish structure was threatenedEarly in the Asian trading session on July 25, OANDA:XAUUSD decreased more than 1%, as of the time the article was completed, gold was trading at 2,372USD, equivalent to a decrease of 25Dollar during the day. Former New York Fed President Dudley (who enjoys perpetual voting rights on the FOMC and is known as “the Federal Reserve's third in command”) wrote: I have long been in the “hold interest” camp. high yield for longer periods of time. But times have changed and things have changed now so I changed my mind. The Fed should cut interest rates, preferably at its interest rate meeting next week. Gold traders are now awaiting second-quarter US GDP data today (Thursday), as well as the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, as this is the gauge Fed's preferred inflation. Reuters quoted sources as saying on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan may discuss whether to raise interest rates at its July 30-31 meeting and announce a plan to nearly halve its bond purchases. votes in the next few years. Although gold has been supported by news from India which has reduced import duties on gold and silver from 15% to 6%. But the main reason why gold prices are still being sold off is partly due to profit-taking motivation, and partly because the possibility of Trump's election will support the Dollar. Trump is known as the President with a gay tariff stance. harshly. The main factor currently supporting gold prices is market expectations that the Federal Reserve may actually decide to cut interest rates before September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is trading at a very dangerous price position for bullish expectations. As the current price activity falls below most important supports from the trending price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). Given its current position, gold is still likely to continue to sell off more towards the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, which is also the nearest support level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing down but still quite far from the oversold point, showing that the room for price reduction is still quite comfortable. Gold can only have enough conditions to increase in price when it surpasses the area of ​​2,400 - 2,390 USD, which is also considered the current pressure area. During the day, gold has conditions to fall further with notable prices that will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,362USD Resistance: 2,385 – 2,390 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2415 - 2413 ⚰️SL: 2419 ⬆️TP1: 2408 ⬆️TP2: 2403 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2349 - 2351 ⚰️SL: 2345 ⬆️TP1: 2356 ⬆️TP2: 2361
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-07-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Down, up, down up. Today was up where open was almost the exact low of the day. Market stalled around 18550 and it’s critical for the bears that it stays a lower high below 18650. Bears need to break the bull trend line for lower prices. Shorting above 18550 and buying 18500 was king today. Can not be anything but neutral going into tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls made around 100 points from eu open to close. Looks more like a leg in a trading range than strong buying. Bulls want a higher high above 18657 but I highly doubt that they get it. Market is in breakout mode. Watch the triangle on the daily chart. There are 2 potential bear trend lines above which can act as magnets. 18600 and 18660ish. I do think that if bulls can break above 18660 again, they can test the bear trend line from the ath around 18800. Invalidation is below 18480. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 18500 but bulls poked enough that they stepped aside and shorted above 18550 again. Bears need to keep this a lower high or risk a breakout out of this triangle. Their first target is a break below the bull trend line below 18480. Invalidation is above 18560. short term: neutral. Bullish above 18600 and bearish below 18480. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. —unchanged trade of the day: Long since EU open or shorting above 18550 and buying 18500. Clear support and resistance today but tbh, not a fun day to trade this.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-07-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Gold had a huge bull day and my line in the sand for bears was 2436. Market now broke above it 2 times and the buying into US close was strong enough for a second leg which could bring us above 2480 again. Still a trading range on the daily chart and anything above 2300 is good for the bulls. Probably another try at printing 2500 over the next days. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2500 bull case: Bulls want a new ath and all the stops too close above it. 2500 would be a nice round number to reach. After that I don’t have anything for the bulls. It’s a trading range since April and such big trading ranges happen before the final flag and this one here is probably it. I would not bet on another strong bull trend above 2500. Above was written last week and is valid as ever. Bulls do not want to drop below the 1h 20ema again or the chop continues. They want the momentum continuing and another strong break above 2460 for the second leg up. Invalidation is below 2440. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 2440 but market made higher lows and on the strong buying at bar 13, they stepped aside enough to let the market rip into US close. I don’t think many bears want to battle between 2450 and 2480, so I expect this becoming a quick move up before they see value in shorting again. Below 2440 I am wrong and bears showing strength again. Invalidation is above 2460. short term: Bullish af again. Want to see a proper channel form, that we can grind to 2480 or 2500. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Tricky. Bar 10 was strong enough to expect more upside but the pullback afterwards on bar 11+12 was deep enough to trap many traders out. Bar 13 was the long to be in while it formed but tricky in any case.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
USDJPY took a breather on ThursdayFollowing a robust rally earlier in the week, USDJPY took a breather on Thursday, displaying a lack of clear direction but maintaining a steady position above 155.00. If gains resume, resistance looms at 158.00 and 160.00 thereafter. Traders, however, must view movements towards these levels with caution, as Tokyo may step in again to support the yen, which could precipitate a swift reversal. On the flip side, if the bullish scenario fails to materialize and prices begin to head lower, the first support to keep an eye on appears at 154.65. On continued weakness, all eyes will be on 153.15, followed by 152.30-152.00, an important technical range, where the 50-day simple moving average aligns with a medium-term ascending trendline.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY surged to multi-decade highs around 154.80Earlier in the week, USDJPY surged to multi-decade highs around 154.80 before retracing slightly from those lofty levels as the weekend approached. If the downward reversal gains traction in the upcoming trading sessions, support looms at 153.20 and 152.00 thereafter, with 150.80 possibly becoming a focal point if these price thresholds are breached. On the flip side, if USDJPY resumes its climb, resistance is likely to materialize near 154.80, followed by 156.00, the upper boundary of a short-term rising channel in place since December of last year. While the pair maintains a bullish outlook, it's essential to proceed with caution given the overbought market conditions and the increasing probability of FX intervention by the Japanese government.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY rebounded from Fib0.618% levelOn Friday (July 5), data from the US Department of Labor showed that US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 jobs in June. The May data was revised sharply downward to show an increase of 218,000 jobs, compared to the previous value of 272,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, slightly above expectations of 4.0%. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed US jobs growth slowed slightly in June while the unemployment rate rose, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates capacity in September. Data-wise it is not favorable for the USD and this creates some pressure on USD/JPY. But the general picture is that USD/JPY still tends to increase fundamentally because the interest rate difference between the Fed and BOJ is still very large. On the daily chart, after OANDA:USDJPY correction since testing the edge on the price channel (a), the correction also received support from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. Note to readers in the previous issue. The 0.618% Fibonacci level acts as short-term support, while the EMA21 moving average and trend price channel (a) act as main supports and are also the main trend of USD/JPY. In the short term, as long as USD/JPY remains above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will remain supported and the possibility of a downside correction will remain limited and the target level in the near term is aimed at the 0.786% Fibonacci level. In case USD/JPY falls below 160.204 it has room to correct a bit more with EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.50% as targets. However, during the day the uptrend of USD/JPY will still be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 160,204 – 159,896 Resistance: 161,951 – 162,464
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered strongly by IndiaOANDA:XAUUSD Strong recovery, Gold price reached 2,418 USD/ounce during the Asian trading session on July 24. Spot gold ended a four-session losing streak as India's move to cut import taxes on gold and silver is expected to boost global gold demand. India plans to significantly reduce import duties on gold and silver The Indian government on Tuesday announced plans to reduce import tax on gold and silver from 15% to 6%. The move could boost retail demand and help curb smuggling in India. “To increase the domestic value addition of gold and precious metal jewellery, I propose to reduce customs duty on gold and precious metals,” Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in her budget speech on Tuesday. silver down 6%.” Increased gold demand in India could push up global gold prices because India is the world's second largest gold consumer. In addition to news from India, falling US bond interest rates is also a positive signal for gold. Gold prices recovered, due to falling US Treasury bond yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.5 basis points to 4.24%, which is a positive signal for gold. Traders are awaiting key US economic data, including June inflation and Q2 GDP, to gauge the Fed's next move. According to CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, the market expects a 96.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Since gold does not earn interest, cutting interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby making gold more attractive to investors. Pay attention to important US data The focus this week will be on US second-quarter GDP data on Thursday and the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, as this is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. A weaker PCE is expected to be positive for gold, mainly because the market will be more confident that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, up to now, gold is having its second day of recovery since profit-taking pressure caused gold prices to adjust to the important support area around 2,390 - 2,400 USD. Attention readers before. Gold prices also achieved the initial target recovery level at the $2,416 area noted in yesterday's publication and with the current momentum, the next target level will be around $2,430. If gold breaks the 2,430 USD level, the bullish outlook will continue to open up with a new cycle and the subsequent target level of about 2,465 USD, the price point of the 0.328% Fibonacci extension. As long as gold remains above EMA21 and within the trend price channel the main trend remains bullish and the bullish structure is not affected, pullbacks do not take gold price below EMA21 then it should only be considered as short-term adjustments. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,420 – 2,430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2434 - 2432 ⚰️SL: 2438 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2422 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2372 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2379 ⬆️TP2: 2384
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
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