Get started

Futures

2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 350 points up and then 260 points down. Up move was stronger than I thought and I did not trade it but I nailed the down move. The bull wedge is broken and bulls might retest the breakout at 17600 but that could be the high for tomorrow. I still expect the lows to be retested and today printed another nasty reversal bar on the daily chart. I still expect the lows to hold (it can be a lower low but not close below 17000) but only if this JPN carry blowup did not create an event we are already in. If something broke, next logical support is 16500 but the big bull trend line at around 16800 was last touched in 2023-10 and will most likely not break on the next touch. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls tried 4 times to stay above 17600 and the bull wedge broke in the US session today. If bulls fail to keep the market above 17370, the lows will come fast because many bulls will give up below today’s low. Best bulls can hope for is to stay above that price and go sideways. Their first target is a close above the 1h 20ema which is currently around 17580 and the breakout below the bull wedge. If they keep the market neutral long enough tomorrow, we could try 17600 or higher again but as of now that is very low probability. Invalidation is below 17000. bear case: Bears sold off into the US close again and for tomorrow I do not expect another strong up move in the Globex or early EU session. Too many bulls got trapped again and they will probably wait for a retest of 17100 to look for longs again. Bears target is obvious and since they printed 4 strong consecutive 1h bear bars, they are in control of the market again. Invalidation is above 17650. short term: Full bear mode. Bear flag is broken and retest of the lows probably next medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update 2024-08-06: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: None but will probably look for longs around 17100 trade of the day: Long bar 2 since it was a retest of y close and stay above the bull wedge trend line. Could have closed longs at prior weekly high around 17700 or below bar 56. Next best trade was short bar 62 or bar 66. Decent chance we test the lower wedge trend line again after 3 pushes up.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150. Invalidation is below 5090. bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above. Invalidation is above 5280. short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
USDJPY recovers, downtrend conditionsA sharp shift in Japan's monetary policy, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disappointing US jobs data have pressured global markets since last Friday. . The yen's rapid rise began last Wednesday, when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and laid out a plan to gradually taper its bond-buying program. The US dollar fell nearly 5% against the yen last week and fell further on Monday. However, it recovered slightly by 0.09% on Tuesday and continued to recover on Wednesday. USD/JPY is currently trading around 147. There is a reason the yen could give up recent gains as the market may accept expectations of a US interest rate cut, but it will be more difficult to digest expectations of Japan continuing increase interest rates. Tuesday's data showed Japanese households remained cautious and will struggle to boost aggregate demand enough to keep inflation at 2%. Therefore, it will be difficult for the Bank of Japan to fulfill its desire to continue the cycle of increasing interest rates. However, this is only a subjective assessment, because everything from Japan needs additional information from the BOJ to be able to fully evaluate the path. On the weekly chart, OANDA:USDJPY recovered above 146.385 and above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. However, these recovery levels are not enough for USD/JPY to have bullish conditions when the confluence of the trend price channel (a) and the 0.382% Fibonacci level will be the current closest resistance. For USD/JPY to gain further upside it needs to bring price activity above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and then the target level of around 153,760 price points is the confluence of Ema21 and 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Meanwhile, once USD/JPY is sold off again below 144.520 it will continue to move towards 140.401 in the short term. Currently, technical position conditions for USD/JPY remain bearish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 144,992 – 144,520 Resistance: 148,654
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is under pressure as Stocks, DXY, Bond yield increaseOANDA:XAUUSD Right at the opening session (August 7), it decreased by 5Dollar to 2,384USD, equivalent to a decrease of 0.25% on the day, as of the time this article was completed. The strength of the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates are the main reasons leading to the sell-off in gold prices. In addition, the recovery in global equity markets has revived the market's risk appetite, which also affected the safe-haven asset gold. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with attacks by Hezbollah in northern Israel, could support safe-haven gold. U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, as a jump in Japanese stocks helped boost sentiment. The Dow increased 294.39 points, or 0.76%, to 38,997.66 points; Nasdaq index increased 166.77 points, equivalent to 1.03%, to 16,366.85 points; The S&P 500 increased 53.70 points, or 1.04%, to 5,240.03 points. On the European stock front, Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.08% on Tuesday; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.23% and Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.08%. The Dxy index, which tracks the strength of the US Dollar, also increased to 103,199, equivalent to an increase of 0.26% on the day, a continued increase from the trading day on August 6. Gold is under pressure partly because bond yields continue to increase, with USD10Y increasing to 3,909, equivalent to an increase of 0.33%, similar to Dxy, it also continued the increase of the previous trading session. However, geopolitical issues remain after Hezbollah launched attacks in northern Israel, Valencia added. An escalation of the conflict could boost gold's outlook and even pave the way for a return to $2,400 an ounce. Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah has launched a series of drone and missile attacks on northern Israel. According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market sees a 100% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold returned to test the support level noted by readers in the previous issue. The area is the confluence of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the horizontal support of 2,378USD and the lower edge of the price channel. The above confluence area is an important support area, because if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will be a negative signal for the uptrend, because this means that the uptrend from the inner price channel The medium term was broken under the same double top pattern that formed. Previously, the fact that gold was operating below EMA21 was a technical disadvantage as the EMA21 level would now become resistance in the short term. However, in terms of trend, gold is currently still trending up because the supporting factors are still working well. During the day, the bullish technical outlook from the price channel will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,385 – 2,378 – 2,362USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2416 - 2414 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2409 ⬆️TP2: 2404 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365 ⚰️SL: 2359 ⬆️TP1: 2370 ⬆️TP2: 2375
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-08-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral between 17300 and 17650. Market is trying to find a bottom in a big trading range. As long as market stays below 17900, it’s max bearish. I expect a slow grind to retest the lows over the next 1-2 days and those lows will most likely hold so we can move much more sideways. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls got their pullback but only printed an inside bar on the daily chart, which is weak. Their only goal is to get above 17900 and break above the July low and close as much of the gap to 18150 as possible. First target is 17700 and then the Globex high from Monday at 17732. Invalidation is below 17000. bear case: Bears kept the bounce below the 4h 20ema and below the Globex high from Monday. They want this bear flag to be shallow and mostly sideways before another strong leg down. A measured move down would bring us to 15600 but for that to happen in 2024, we would ne an event or nothing but annihilation of earnings next quarter. My head & shoulders target from 3 or 4 weeks ago was missed by less than 100 points on Monday, I consider this to be close enough. Invalidation is above 17900. short term: full bear mode. Target was 17844 and we got 17110. Play the bear flag for now but the lows will be retested. More sideways movement over the next days or weeks. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: Closed all shorts for 800+ points. Currently not interested in anything but intraday scalps. trade of the day: Shorting the Globex high double top 17650 after the second big bear bar. That was good for 170 points which was a bit lower than the gap to y close.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [05 August - 09 August]This week, the international gold price has continuously increased sharply after opening the week at 2,382 USD/oz due to increasing concerns about the US economic recession and the FED's announcement that it would cut interest rates in September. The gold price climbed to 2,477 USD/oz at one point, but then fell to 2,410 USD/oz and closed at 2,442 USD/oz. The US labor market has been deteriorating further, with the economy adding just 114,000 jobs in July, well below economists' forecasts of 176,000, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. More worryingly, the US unemployment rate in July jumped to 4.3%. This has increased expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September meeting without any further promises. The above economic data will be the echo for the recovery of gold prices next week. From a technical perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend on long-term time frames, although there are corrections in the short-term frame. Gold prices may continue to maintain wave 5 corresponding to the Weekly chart, increasing above the 2500 round resistance level next week if it breaks through the old peak at 2483. If it fails to break through this resistance level, gold prices will move sideways within the range of 2385-2485. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,437 – 2,431 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484 – 2,475USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2501 - 2499⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2505 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2384 - 2386⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2380
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD trend remains positive, data week is lightDue to weaker-than-expected US employment data and market expectations of interest rate cuts, OANDA:XAUUSD increased more than 1% at the beginning of last week's trading session when the market took profit. As tensions in the Middle East lead to increased safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold has become more attractive to investors. It is up 2.35% this week, showing an overall uptrend. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Fed could cut interest rates as early as September if the U.S. economy grows as expected. Gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, with lower interest rates reducing the opportunity cost of holding the asset and making gold attractive. The latest US Department of Labor released jobs data and 114,000 new workers were added in July, less than the 175,000 expected. The previous data was revised down from 206,000 to 179,000. The data also showed the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3% and average hourly earnings fell by a tenth from 0.3% to 0.2%. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets now see a 22% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, up from 12% previously. The market shows that the Fed will cut interest rates by 86 basis points at the remaining 3 meetings this year. Tensions in the Middle East increased, demand for gold as a safe haven increased, and Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, leading to further escalation of conflict. Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital after attending the inauguration of the new Iranian president, and both Iranian and Hamas officials blamed Israel for the attack. These developments further support gold prices as investors seek safe haven assets amid uncertainty. In terms of short-term forecasts, gold is expected to maintain its bullish trend, driven by risk aversion and dovish Federal Reserve policies. Geopolitical tensions and weak US economic data will support gold prices, Another piece of data to note is U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing that for the week ending July 30, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts were reduced by 9,535 lots to 188,909 lots; Futures contracts decreased by 9,535 lots to 188,909 lots. Economic data and events to watch out for next week Focusing on the market next week, investors will pay attention to the following important events. Monday: ISM Services PMI: to be released on Monday, will provide the market with more information on the state of the services sector in the US. Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision: will be announced on Tuesday and investors will closely monitor its impact on the global monetary policy environment. Wednesday and Thursday: U.S. Bond Auctions: Wednesday and Thursday's 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions will be closely watched, especially after the strong gains of the bond market this week. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold corrects after approaching target level at all-time peak. Note to readers in previous publications that the only closest resistance level was found technically. However, the profit-taking motivation did not cause gold to correct longer, while the support level at the confluence of EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement pushed gold prices to recover above the 0.236% Fibonacci, which should be considered a positive signal for gold prices. On the daily chart, the near-term target for gold prices will still be highlighted by the all-time high, price point of $2,484. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the trend price channel, its technical outlook remains bullish and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,431 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484 – 2,452USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2461 - 2459 ⚰️SL: 2465 ⬆️TP1: 2454 ⬆️TP2: 2449 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2494 - 2496 ⚰️SL: 2490 ⬆️TP1: 2401 ⬆️TP2: 2406
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered after a large correctionOANDA:XAUUSD recovered to above the original price of 2,400 USD after suffering a general decline in the market during the bloody trading session on August 5. In general, in terms of basic and technical trends, the uptrend for gold prices is still will prevail. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets and bet that the Federal Reserve now needs to sharply cut interest rates to spur economic growth. In addition, geopolitical developments in the Middle East are showing more and more signs that escalation is also a huge driving force for gold prices. Economic data US services sector activity recovered in July Activity in the U.S. services sector rebounded from a four-year low in July as orders and employment increased, data showed. The services sector expanded again in July, exiting its worst recession in four years, which may help ease fears of a widespread economic slowdown. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) comprehensive services industry index rose 2.6 points to 51.4, above 50, the index's key boundary. The July data was slightly higher than the average forecast of economists surveyed. The index was boosted by a rebound in services employment, orders and business activity, showing modest growth in the services sector, the economy's biggest pillar. Previously, US Department of Labor data released on Friday showed the unemployment rate rose to a nearly three-year high of 4.3% and job growth slowed significantly. The jobs report increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will make more aggressive interest rate cuts before the end of the year. According to CME's FedWatch tool, a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is certainly imminent. The data also showed that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut lending rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Political geography Gold prices remain significantly supported by rising geopolitical tensions and growing concerns about a global economic slowdown. The conflict in the Middle East appears to have widened, with Iran-backed Hezbollah saying it fired multiple missiles at Israel on Saturday in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in Tehran aimed at assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. In terms of fundamentals, geopolitical tensions have increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered significantly after suffering a large correction yesterday with another retest of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, keeping price activity above the $2,400 raw price is a positive signal for gold prices and staying above EMA21 opens up the prospect of a more extended upside with a short-term target around 2,431 – 2,437 USD. Looking at the overall picture, the structure for the uptrend of gold prices has not been affected with the price channel being the main trend in the medium term. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is bullish with notable price levels listed below. Support: 2,408 – 2,400 – 2,385USD Resistance: 2,431 – 2,437USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2426 - 2424 ⚰️SL: 2430 ⬆️TP1: 2419 ⬆️TP2: 2414 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2394 - 2396 ⚰️SL: 2390 ⬆️TP1: 2401 ⬆️TP2: 2406
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD heads to era levels, pay special attention to NFPOANDA:XAUUSD continues to trade with an uptrend, heading towards all-time levels as markets eye upcoming US nonfarm payrolls data, to be released today (Friday) this week. FED Although the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Wednesday, Chairman Jerome Powell said rates could be cut in September if the US economy grows as expected. Recent economic data supports interest rate cuts, but Fed officials remain skeptical about the reflation process and say they want to see more data. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29.5%. As an effective traditional economic and geopolitical risk hedge, gold typically performs well and finds support in low interest rate environments. In terms of economic data US ISM manufacturing data fell for a fourth straight month and initial jobless claims rose last week, again raising concerns that the US economy could fall into recession . According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, initial jobless claims rose from 14,000 to 249,000 in the week ended July 27. The survey forecast was for 236,000. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported Thursday that the ISM manufacturing index fell 1.7 to 46.8 in July. A reading below 50 indicates industry activity is contracting. The latest data was weaker than all surveys expected. Traders now await Friday's US jobs report for further direction on Fed policy. It is expected that the US will create 175,000 new jobs in July and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. If non-farm data falls short of expectations, the US dollar could suffer, thereby stimulating further gold price increases. Political geography According to many sources, Iran may attack Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this week. The United States is preparing for an Iranian attack on Israel in the coming days. We need to remember the time in 2019 when Iran also attacked Israel in retaliation for the assassination of the leader of Iran's special forces, and at this time gold increased significantly. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian political and military officials said Iran would retaliate for Haniyeh's assassination. A senior Israeli official said the Israeli intelligence community predicted Iran would launch a large-scale missile attack on Israel. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold fell and received support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement area it recovered and continued the main uptrend approaching all-time levels. Note to readers in yesterday's edition. In the short term, there is no more notable level of technical resistance than the all-time high at $2,484, while the closest support is at $2,437 and the main trend is an uptrend highlighted by the channel. price and moving average EMA21. In addition, the relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up, showing that the momentum and room for price increases are still wide. As long as gold remains above $2,437, it still has short-term upside prospects. Meanwhile, even if sold below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the downward momentum will still be limited by the confluence of support from EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.382%. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish with notable technical levels listed as follows. Support: 2,437 – 2,431USD Resistance: 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2476 - 2474 ⚰️SL: 2480 ⬆️TP1: 2469 ⬆️TP2: 2464 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2420 - 2422 ⚰️SL: 2416 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2432
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD price slipped because investors took profitsOANDA:XAUUSD decreased during the trading session on Friday (August 2), because investors took profits after this precious metal had a sharp increase in price during the trading session. Analysts believe that gold prices may soon exceed 2,500 USD/oz because the risk of a US economic recession may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates more strongly than expected. However, gold prices have risen 1.8% this week as demand for hedging increases amid heating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and investor expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates next year. September - a move that will create a more favorable environment for gold prices. According to the latest statistics, the US job market decelerated stronger than expected and the unemployment rate increased to the highest level since October 2021. The nonfarm payrolls report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of new jobs in the month was 179,000 jobs, compared to the number of 185,000 new jobs that economists reported in a survey by the firm. Dow Jones news. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from 4.1% previously. The report caused US Treasury bond prices to increase sharply while the USD exchange rate plummeted, creating support for gold prices, helping this precious metal avoid the risk of a deep decline due to profit-taking pressure. Along with that, the USD dropped sharply, with the Dollar Index falling 1.15%, closing the week at 103.22 points. This is the lowest level of this index since March. All week, the Dollar Index decreased 1.05%. This week, an important driving force for gold prices was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's announcement on Wednesday that interest rates could be cut as soon as September if the US economy performed as expected. With the recently released gloomy employment report, many experts believe that the Fed may have to reduce interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at the September meeting, instead of 0.25 percentage points.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-08-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning. comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling, which could produce a huge bounce upwards. 5000/5100 were my targets which I was not sure about if we could get there in 2024 but getting there in a couple of days is something special. I do not know the reasons for the selloff and neither do you or anyone else. Don’t fool yourself because random bro on twitter said it’s because of the jpn carry trade or whatever. All we know is that people are running for the exits and we almost had the first limit down day since covid. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls stopped the selling at 5119, which was in the area of the May low. And in between my lower target of 5200 and the most obvious big support 5000. If this is not an event where all technicals are out of the window, a pullback will happen, that’s the nature of markets. Bulls printed a textbook inverted head & shoulders and the target for that is 5420. The 50% pb from the ath to recent low is 5418. I am not saying that we get there tomorrow but bear trends have violent pullbacks and it’s absolutely possible to see that price again. For now bulls should be happy with holding above 5200 and going sideways. Invalidation is below 5100. bear case: Bears produced 3 extremely climactic bear bars on the daily chart and that is unsustainable. Market needs a pullback and everyone knows it. Market touched the 1h 20ema twice today for the first time since Thursday. The bear wedge already broke and market is trying to find a bottom. If bears are strong and this selling is the end of it all, any pullback will be violently sold again and market will probably not see 5350 or higher again. If this is not the end all be all, we get a healthy pullback to form a proper channel, which will lead us to 5000 over the next weeks. That is the reasonable and my preferred path forward. If bears go full panic mode, we see 5000 today and probably a bit lower just to get all stops below, before a bounce. This was most likely leg 2 (W3) of this current bear trend. Invalidation is above 5460. short term: Can’t be bearish at these lows. 5100/5200 will most likely hold and we trade in the given range for some time or see a bigger pullback to 5400ish. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Can futures predict market movements?I was wondering if futures can predict market movement. Here's a monthly chart showing two values: * green: the difference between ES futures and SPX, divided by SPX to keep it proportional in a rising market * orange: SPX itself It shows: 1. Futures fluctuate over the 3-month cycle 2. SPX declines after peaks in the difference between ES futures and SPX - see 2001, 2008, 2018. Over-optimism? 3. But there was no peak before the decline in 2022 !? 4. Bulls want to see the difference well below zero - see 2003-04, 2001-17 and 2020-22 5. In 2023 the difference between ES futures and SPX is back to levels seen in 2000 and 2007, which preceded drops in SPX of around 46% and 52% Not trading advice. Do you own research
SP:SPX
by lavoriamo
GOLD increased strongly after FOMC, pay attention to NFPAfter the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, OANDA:XAUUSD surged toward all-time highs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that US jobs data will begin to play an important role in setting monetary policy. Economic data U.S. economic data showed private hiring slowed in July, according to ADP's latest jobs change report. Additionally, building permits improved after a decline in May, while the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which the Fed uses to measure wage inflation pressures, fell in the second quarter. year 2024. FOMC The Federal Reserve once again decided to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. This is the 8th consecutive meeting of the Federal Reserve without adjusting interest rates. Powell said deflation has “extended” and noted downside risks to the labor market. “We think the current labor market is unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure,” Powell added, saying that if they see a decline in the job market, “we will respond.” Following these comments, Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report will be a key link in the Fed's move to focus more on employment. After Powell's speech, market participants were pricing in a 70 basis point (bps) interest rate cut later this year. Fed policy statement In their monetary policy statement, Fed officials noted that "The Committee believes it would be inappropriate to lower the target range until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% sustainably and the risks associated with dual mandates have become more balanced.” Traders should pay special attention to the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data for July and nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which will be released on Thursday and Friday. Geopolitical risks escalate Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the New York Times reported on Wednesday that three Iranian officials said Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered Iran to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the leader's murder. Hamas Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran and Hamas accused Israel of carrying out the assassination. The report indicates that three Iranian officials, including two members of the Revolutionary Guard, said Khamenei issued the order at an emergency meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council this morning. Wednesday. Not long ago, Iran announced that Haniyeh had been killed. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold increased significantly, reaching the target level at 2,437 USD and breaking this level, the gold price is now fully qualified to move towards an all-time peak. The current correction cycle has technically ended with the closest support for gold prices being noticed at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point. The main trend is noticed with the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as gold remains above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it still has enough room to rise in the short term with the target level being an all-time high. Meanwhile, even if gold corrects below $2,437, the decline will be limited by the confluence of the Fibonacci 0.382% and EMA21. During the day, gold's technical outlook is bullish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,437 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2475 - 2473 ⚰️SL: 2479 ⬆️TP1: 2468 ⬆️TP2: 2463 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2420 - 2422 ⚰️SL: 2416 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2432
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
USDJPY continued its upward trajectory on MondayUSDJPY continued its upward trajectory on Monday, consolidating above the 156.00 handle. Should this momentum pick up later in the week, resistance appears at 158.00, followed by 160.00. It's important to exercise caution with any ascent towards these levels, considering the possibility of FX intervention by Japanese authorities to bolster the yen. Such a move could quickly send the pair into a tailspin. Alternatively, if selling pressure resurfaces and prompts the pair to reverse course, initial support is positioned at 154.65. While prices are expected to stabilize around this zone during a pullback, a breakdown could precipitate a swift decline toward 153.15. If weakness persists, attention could turn to trendline support and the 50-day simple moving average near 152.50.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY is once again approaching the 160 levelJapanese officials recently intervened in the foreign exchange market as the USD/JPY exchange rate approached the 160 level. However, this time the upward movement has been more gradual and less volatile, prompting no action from Japanese officials. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading above 157.00 and has rebounded strongly off the 50-day SMA in early May. The issue of yen weakness is likely to persist due to the significant interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, supporting the carry trade.
by Xayah_trading
1
USDJPY forming a downtrendThe risk of Japan raising interest rates combined with recent suspected intervention in the foreign exchange market has supported the Yen's recovery. If US second quarter GDP and June PCE data are unimpressive then OANDA:USDJPY is expected to continue to decrease. Even though S&P Global announced on the same day that the US Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July rose to 55.0, the highest since April 2022, the market is still continuing to short USD/JPY ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting. On the daily chart, since OANDA:USDJPY broke below the price channel and found bearish conditions taking price activity below the EMA21 and below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it has formed a trend channel. decreasing direction. In the short term, the fact that USD/JPY remains in the price channel and is below the 0.382% Fibonacci level shows that there is still room for price decline to continue towards 151.128, the price point is the confluence of the lower edge of the price channel. and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. As long as USD/JPY remains in the price channel, the short-term trend will still be downtrend, on the other hand if USD/JPY falls below and breaks below the 0.50% Fibonacci level, a new short-term bearish cycle will be in place. opens with further targets at 148.570. During the day, the bearish outlook for USD/JPY will be highlighted by the following technical levels. Support: 151,875 – 151,128 Resistance: 153.119 – 153.685
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY trend, pay attention to BOJ decision this weekTraders are preparing for a series of market events this weekend, including policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, as well as Friday's jobs report. Six of the United States. The yen is recovering significantly mainly because of growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this week and some official yen purchases by the Bank of Japan in recent weeks helped boost the yen. As for the US Dollar, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week, but will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in September. Although the FOMC will not meet in August, Fed Chairman Powell could take advantage of the Jackson Hole meeting of central bank presidents in late August to prepare for an interest rate cut. By then, there will be more inflation data and the July jobs report released for policymakers to consider the conditions for cutting interest rates in September. Judging from the current market atmosphere, although the yield gap between the United States and Japan is expected to narrow as a result, the long-term arbitrage advantage will not be easily eroded. Because after all, the US is still the force that dominates the fluctuations of the currency market. Once the US changes its attitude towards cutting interest rates, the Japanese Yen will face many obstacles on the way to reversing its decline. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY continues to recover after receiving support from 151.875 and the recovery is temporarily limited by the technical point 154.734. It is worth noting that if USD/JPY manages to break the 154.734 level it will tend to approach the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level as the Relative Strength Index is bending upward from the oversold area, indicating room to trade. Price increases are very wide. Currently, the trend of USD/JPY is still noticed by the trend price channel and long-term pressure is noticed by EMA21. If it is sold below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, the next target level will be around 151.875. Thus, the level of 154,734 will be an important technical point for the downtrend of USD/JPY in the short term so the levels to protect open positions should be placed behind this technical level. During the day, the trend of USD/JPY will be noticed again by the following prices. Support: 153,865 – 151,875 Resistance: 154,734 – 156,850
by Xayah_trading
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Aug 4th—> Aug 9th)Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw volatility surge to levels not seen in over a year, with UST yields sliding to their lowest in months. Renewed concerns about wider conflict in the Middle East, coupled with fears of a rapidly decelerating US economy potentially leading to a recession, resulted in a forced recalibration in the markets. Let's delve into the key events that shaped this volatile week. 📈 **Market Overview:** Volatility spiked dramatically as geopolitical tensions and economic concerns dominated headlines. Renewed fears about a broader conflict in the Middle East and the possibility of a more severe recession in the US led to significant market movements. The FOMC held rates steady, disappointing those hoping for a rate cut. Chairman Powell's focus on employment risks suggested that the committee is nearing a time to reduce restrictiveness, but his message didn't align with the rapidly declining labor indicators. The week ended with a weak July employment report, following a disappointing ISM manufacturing report that spooked markets on Thursday, resulting in risk-off flows and a more dovish outlook towards the Jackson Hole Symposium. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📉 S&P 500: Down by 2% - 📉 Dow Jones: Down by 2.1% - 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 3.4% **Economic Indicators:** US Treasury yields dropped amid a slew of softer economic readings, with the yield curve steepening significantly: - **2-10 Year Spread:** Rose above -10 bps as futures markets and investment houses now foresee a 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September and potentially more than 100 bps in cuts by the end of 2024. - **JOLTS Job Openings:** Showed the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels. - **ADP Employment Data:** Missed estimates, with annual pay growth slowing to its lowest level in years. - **Weekly Initial Jobless Claims:** Hit a 1-year high at 249K. - **ISM Manufacturing:** Missed estimates across the board, with the employment component registering its weakest reading since June 2020. - **July Employment Report:** Payrolls, hours worked, and wages all missed estimates, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm recession indicator for the first time since the pandemic. **Commodity Prices:** - **Crude Prices:** Rose early in the week due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran but sold off later on rising recession fears. - **Gold Prices:** Climbed ~10% through Thursday due to a weaker US dollar but fell sharply after the Friday employment report. - **Bitcoin:** Also sold off sharply after the employment report. **Corporate News:** - **AI and Consumer Spending:** The themes of AI investment and weakening consumer spending dominated earnings reports. - **Nvidia:** Criticized by Elliott Management, suggesting AI is overhyped and in a bubble. - **Arm Holdings and Intel:** Reinforced concerns with Arm guiding lower and Intel announcing a fresh turnaround plan after poor results. - **Apple and Meta:** Reported better quarterly results, affirming significant capex growth for AI in the coming year. - **Consumer Sector:** - **McDonald’s:** Missed earnings and reported negative same-store sales, highlighting competition for value meals and deal-seeking consumers. - **Amazon:** Echoed similar sentiments about deal-seeking consumers, with capex increases tied to AI spending. - **Procter & Gamble:** Reported mixed results, noting market challenges expected to persist until the second half of next year, particularly in China.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears made another amazing trade selling above 2440 and since this was the third time, they are confident they can push the market lower to at least 2300 again. The selling was strong enough for a second leg and right now a measured move would bring us exactly to 2300. Coincidences huh. Every time someone tells you technical analysis does not work, just nod and make money. It’s not worth the discussion. comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months. current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months key levels: 2300 - 2536 bull case: Bulls showed weakness during the week before but somehow managed to turn the market around this week on bad looking daily bars. Unusual to say the least. I do think every time the patterns looks bad, it’s more due to the other side stepping aside than one being particularly strong. Anyhow, Market retested the ath again and printed a lower high 14 points lower. It’s the 5th time the bulls tried and failed. Do they get more or will they give up now? I don’t know. I thought the drop that started 2 weeks ago from the ath was decent enough to bring us to 2300 again but they failed at a higher low. So we are in a triangle and in the middle of it. Market is neutral between 2450 - 2490. Invalidation is below 2290. bear case: Not much to add because market is neutral. Bears need follow through on Monday to test the bull trend line below at around 2425. There is not much more to read out of this at the moment. Things change when bulls get a strong close above 2536 or bears print lower lows below 2390 again. Invalidation is above 2536. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode continues as long as the bear channel holds. Look for shorts near the top and take profits at new lows. → Last Sunday we traded 2381 and now we are at 2469. The bear channel broke on Tuesday and my invalidation was on point but my outlook was not. Always know your risk and start every trade from a risk point of view and now from a profit point of view. You will most likely never hit 90% winners consistently so get used to losers and don’t let them influence you in a bad way. short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed bearish pattern and added the triangle we are in
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
BTC - Watch for this correction Pattern to form This is the same chart I’ve been presenting for a few months now. Bitcoin has been showing interest in correlating with DXY’s major breakdown to sweep these Uber low zones. So long as we are respecting these trendlines, I’m convinced that Bitcoin will form a pattern approximate to these levels: 58,700 to 34,500 34,500 retrace up to 42,000 to 45,000 Rejection at this 42,000 to 45,000 zone indicated a drop to the ultra lows - 6,000 to 10,000 So far the price action and chart formation is pointing in this direction. I advise at least to keep an open mind, and understand that while most will expect bitcoin to go to zero. A sweep of these lows is just clearing liquidity prior to a 200k plus Bitcoin over the next 1-2 years. If this happens, buy 6-10k level We should see volatility the remainder of this Sunday and into Monday
Short
by DickDandy
1
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below 5450. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below. comment: Everything about this possible new bear trend I already wrote above, no new stuff to add here. current market cycle: Bull trap triggered on 2024-07-17. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600. On the weekly or monthly chart, the selloff during July/August will be the first leg of this bear trend. key levels: 5400-5600 bull case: Bulls got a huge bounce last week for 169 points but the bears sold it violently again for a 269 point drop. Not stuff that happens during bull trends. Bulls are running for the exits and I do think market won’t get above 5600 anytime soon again. Bulls best hope now is to go sideways and turn the market neutral again. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months. Invalidation is above 5600. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move. → Last Sunday we traded 5499 and now we are at 5376. Market started neutral and had big two sided trading, so outlook was good. short term: Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024. medium-long term: 5300 over the next weeks (will likely happen in August). Afterwards another pullback before we go down to 5000/5100 in 2024. current swing trade: Out of all shorts which I had since 5700. Will load again on anything above 5500. chart update: Bull trend line now clearly broken but bear channel stays for now. Removed bear gap #2. Whenever you see many lines in an area on my charts, it means that much happened there and it’s an area of importance. Expect pullbacks/bounces in those areas. Adjusted the 50% pb from 5601 to the recent low 5331.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
7
#BTC scalp setup short you can use leverage# hello folks , hope you’re doing well here is a wonderful scalp entry BTC just reached an area of strong rejection and cleared internal liquidity in LTF and now his is aiming the external one down bellow the previous low. #You can use leverage at your own responsability and according to your risk management plan Don’t forget to boost and support our Ideas to receive more Analysis We are using LEET ALGORITHMIC CONCEPT (LAC) a revolutionary new trading concept developed by LEET TRADERS COMMUNITY and based on the reasoning logic of the most powerful trading algorithms that control all financial markets . very high accuracy, No psychological factor or stress, the only rule is to follow the steps of the checklist until you reach the target ********* WAKE-UP NEO =) follow the white rabbit********
Short
by LEETRADERS