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JPN225 Correction Persists Ahead of the BoJThe Japanese index managed to swiftly rebound from the plunge caused by the central bank’s second rate hike and hawkish messaging at the end of July, as the market rout created some apprehension around the policy shift. Furthermore, the monetary setting remains accommodative and interests rates are still near-zero, while the stock market’s appeal goes beyond monetary policy and weak Yen. JPN225 comes from a strong week, fueled largely by the upbeat messaging from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang that spilled over to Japanese chip makers. Advantest and Tokyo Electron, two of Nikkei’s largest constituents, jumped more than 7%. As a result the index tries to regain the EMA200 that would allow it to exit its correction and challenge the August highs (39,204). However, the index is cautious this week, as tech optimism wanes and markets await the BoJ’s decision, preceded by inflation update. Policymakers are unlikely to raise rates again, but communication around the path ahead will be crucial. Official have pointed to further tightening ahead and another hike this year is reasonable, as inflation is well above 2%, wages have increased and Q2 GDP posted strong growth. Furthermore, the monetary policy shift and the Yen’s rebound have led to outflows from foreigners over the past seven months. JPN225 stays in correction and below the EMA200 the risk of bear market persists, although sustained below that threshold has a higher degree of difficulty. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225
by FXCM
Will Today's CPI Report Ease Crypto Pressure Post-Debate?Macro theme: - Fears of a global recession are weighing on Bitcoin as a risky asset, though the US economy remains on track for steady growth. - Investor engagement with exchanges has decreased, with lower trading volumes reflecting reduced interest. - Bitcoin's recent gains were impacted following the first debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with odds favouring Harris. - All eyes are now on today's CPI data; if inflation falls as expected, a short squeeze could ease the recent price pressure. Technical theme: - From a 4-hour chart perspective, BTCUSD is hovering around EMA21, indicating that the sideways mode persists. EMA21 has not crossed up EMA78 yet to create a complete shift of the current sideways structure despite that BTCUSD broke its previous descending channel.  - If BTCUSD extends its gain beyond 58200, the price may continue to reach the psychology level 60000. - On the contrary, if BTCUSD breaks below 55660, the price may retest the 54600. 
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DatTong
Public Sector (PSU) Banks at SupportAfter a stellar half decade post Covid, the shares of Public Banks have shown signs of exhaustion. But, the underlying companies are in good financial shape and posting record top and bottom lines. I still believe there is a lot of steam left in the like of Canara, BoB and SBI. I can see these stocks and the whole index turning back and hitting record highs in future. The idea shared is not a buy/sell recommendation. It is aimed at spreading awareness and help retail traders be more informed of the opportunities. This should not be taken as the basis of any financial commitments.
NSE:CNXPSUBANKLong
by Gaurav_Singh_5705
1
What does the future hold for Crypto Mining?I have chosen RIOT as the chart, but I am looking at MARA and also BITF. But as a whole, looking at the WGMI (Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF), BTC mining companies as a whole is taking a hit. Crypto itself is taking a huge hit and of course, this affects Crypto Mining. It did seem that Crypto was going to push higher as the expectations for the BTC ETF release was going to be the first part of pushing BTC to the "moon" and with the BTC halving, money would just start stacking for holders. But that didn't happen. There is a decent amount of geo political turmoil going on. Governments selling BTC. SEC doing what it can to get Crypto labeled as securities in order to bring the coins to its realm of oversight. The Yen carry trade unwinding. The potential of a recession. But there is the other side, where there is good news going on for BTC. The possibility of BTC becoming a reserve asset. The upcoming elections, with a a lot of fingers pointing at former President Donald Trump being very pro Crypto. But even if Kamala Harris (pointed in ALTCOIN daily), says that she is in support of crypto, then that will be a good push for Crypto to move higher. There is also the FED reducing rates towards the end of September; with the recent NFP coming out lower than expected and pushing the chances for a reduction in rates for 50 basis points to 50%. So if the self fulling prophecy for BTC hitting $100k - $150k do come true, then Crypto Miners are going to be cooking. Projects are already underway and the Crypto Market has been very resilent. There are those that thought Crypto was going to collapse during the silk road incident. Then after the cash in 2017 when BTC hit $20k. Then the Terra Luna incident. FTX collapse. Mt. Gox incident. And many others. Yet Crypto is still here. The main issue I think is where all the money is pilling into, and during 2017, crypto was starting to hit the mainstream and a lot of coverage was on it. Institutions finally starting trading BTC and others, as well a lot of retail traders and investors were pilling in. In 2021, people were staying home, receiving check after check of stimulus, wondering were to put it. Then when things started opening up, businesses were offering sign up bonuses. Afterwards, during both these events, once Crypto hit a certain lvl, a ton of people cashed out and instantly became very rich. This money flowed into other products, such as wants and/or other ventures/markets. Now money is flowing into different meme coins, AI, FAANG-M stocks, among other things. If BTC is able to push higher and hit the around $120k, then MARA, holding around 13,677 BTC will be worth around $1.65 billion, RIOT with a holding of around 7,250, will be around $870 million, and BITF, with holdings of around $1,016, would be around $121 million (which RIOT is attempting a takeover of BITF, offering a buyout of BITF, which BITF did not accept. If this does happen, RIOT would become a very strong competitor to MARA, pushing its exahash production from 12.6 to 19.6. MARA has an exahash of 29.9). For the price targets, if things go accordingly, MARA will likely be able to break out of the $20 resistance, avoiding the completion of the inverse cup and handle pattern. If this pattern forms, price will likely keep pushing lower, potentially to around the $8 lvl (at least breaking the $10). For RIOT and BITF, they have the same pattern as MARA, and WGMI price is in a monthly rising channel, so there is a strong possibility that price will drop, but if things go accordingly, then prices on these companies will also avoid the acceptance of the inverse cup and handle pattern. The psychological lvls for these two companies are $10 and $2, which could be hit depending on how things go these next few months. I am in a position on RIOT and a few on BITF, my positions are at a small loss, but I am selling covered calls and cash secured puts to offset the loss, which, when factored in, puts me at a net positive. Additionally, I am participating in the stock lending program, which is further offsetting my losses. I am on the side that price will push higher and I am willing to see it through. Protect your inventory (your capital), and have some great trading out there.
NASDAQ:RIOTLong
by DollarSaenz
14
Will the theme of weak demand and oversupply dampen oil prospectMacro theme: - Oil prices have declined since last week as investors expect an OPEC+ supply increase in Oct and a potential deal in Libya to resume production, possibly adding over 500,000 barrels per day. - Weak economic data from China, including Tue's ISM Manufacturing PMI, highlighted the country's sluggish recovery, fuelling calls for more stimulus. - Concerns over China's weak demand and the prospect of increased supply are likely to keep oil prices under pressure in the short term. Technical theme: - USOIL tested EMAs' area confluence with 77.00 resistance before breaking below 71.50 support to maintain a bearish structure. - If USOIL maintains below the 71.50 level, the price may continue to decline to test 67.80 support. - On the contrary, if USOIL can close above 71.50, the price may retrace to retest its EMA21 along with the upper bound of its descending channel.
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by DatTong
Silver / U.S. Dollar - Silver about to shine?Hey Traders We have silver here bounced out of demand zone, I am sorry but we should of been in this set up already from demand zone, unforeseen circumstances this week I have been away from charts, I have had this set up planned for a couple weeks now and my fundamentals line up very well, but no worries we can still get in so I am expecting silver to shine again and I'm looking to buy only. details for set up in the chart. Please like comment and follow cheers This chart material is for education purposes only / Demo account should be traded only
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Costy13
9
U.S. Dollar / Thai Baht - Reversal incoming ???Hey Traders We have USD/THB here on chart, my weekly fundamentals are telling me we have a potential for a reversal from demand zone, if you follow my charts I am using weekly charts for my analysis and daily chart to zone in on demand or supply to get area more accurate to place our buy or sell limit. So details are on chart where I am placing buy limit and sl and tp Please like comment and follow cheers This chart material is for education purposes only / Demo account should be traded only
Long
by Costy13
12
The Problem of Fundamental Analysis in the Crypto MarketFundamental analysis in the traditional financial markets involves evaluating a company's intrinsic value through a variety of metrics, such as earnings, revenue, and growth prospects. However, applying this same approach to cryptocurrency networks presents unique challenges. Cryptocurrencies operate on decentralized networks, and their value often stems from factors that don't align with conventional financial metrics. Key Challenges: Traditional Metrics Fall Short: Cryptocurrency networks are not companies with revenues, profits, or physical assets. Therefore, traditional metrics like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios or revenue growth don’t apply. Misleading Social Media Data: Social media presence and subscriber count might seem like indicators of a project’s popularity or potential, but these figures are easily manipulated. Fake followers, bots, and exaggerated engagement can create a false impression of legitimacy and success. Isolated On-Chain Metrics: While on-chain metrics provide valuable insights, they can be misleading if analyzed in isolation. For instance, a high number of active addresses might suggest widespread usage, but without context, it doesn't reveal whether these addresses represent genuine users or automated bots. Relevant On-Chain Metrics: Number of Transactions: Indicates the level of network activity, but doesn’t differentiate between meaningful transactions and spam. Transaction Cost: Reflects the cost of using the network, which can indicate demand, but also congestion or inefficiency. Active Addresses: Shows how many unique addresses are participating, but could be skewed by the creation of multiple addresses by a single entity. Commissions (Fees): High fees might indicate network demand, but can also point to issues like scalability problems. Hashrate or Coins in Staking: High hashrate or staking levels suggest network security and confidence, but can also centralize control if dominated by a few large players. Design Indicators: Whitepaper: This document outlines the project's goals, technology, and roadmap, but its value depends on the technical understanding of the reader and the honesty of the team. Project Team: The experience and reputation of the team are crucial, but the anonymous or pseudonymous nature of many crypto projects complicates assessment. Competitors: Understanding a project's competitors helps gauge its potential, but the fast-paced nature of the crypto space means that new competitors can emerge quickly. Tokenomics: The economic model of the token, including supply, distribution, and incentives, is vital, but poorly designed tokenomics can lead to inflation or lack of demand. Financial Indicators: Capitalization: Market cap is often used as a quick measure of a project’s size and importance, but can be misleading in low-liquidity markets. Liquidity: High liquidity indicates that an asset can be traded quickly without affecting its price, but low liquidity can lead to price manipulation. Emission Method: The way tokens are issued (e.g., through mining, staking, or ICOs) affects supply dynamics, which can influence price stability and long-term viability. In summary, while fundamental analysis in the crypto market is challenging, a multi-faceted approach combining on-chain metrics, design indicators, and financial indicators can offer valuable insights. However, these should always be interpreted with caution and in context, given the unique dynamics and rapid evolution of the cryptocurrency landscape. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Education
by Crypto4light
$PLTR | Allocation | Buy Limit | Technical Confluences: Price is in Overbought conditions in the Weekly Timeframe (Will take time to play out) Price action bounced off 3 Resistances; Horizontal Trendline, top range of a Parallel Channel and the top of a Supply Zone Fundamental Confluences: PLTR's specialized software platorms that are complex yet scalable in it'sdata handling capabilities gives them their edge Competitors have yet to catch up to NYSE:PLTR 's advancement but competition is starting to build against them from other big tech firms The growth potential in data analytics is massive and it has not include massive global expansion A large portion of their revenue depends on government contracts which is stable but is susceptible to any changes in government and their policies (something to watch for) ----- This counter is a one that I had enter prior to this as shown. The story for NYSE:PLTR in the data analytics field is something that must be held in a long-term portfolio. At the moment, I don't see NYSE:PLTR breaking up above the 3 resistances and am expecting a reversal which I will place Buy Limit orders (as shown) to allocate more into this stock. -----
PLong
by weekendanalyst
Knock Knock. Who's There? Vibecession Ft. US Interest RatesHello Everyone, IMPORTANT: ALL FED POLICIES LEAD TO NEGATIVE OUTCOMES TLDR AT THE END In February 2022 the Federal Reserve gave us the fastest rate raising campaign in history to try and combat very high inflation, but they were very late in raising rates causing one of the worst inflation in 40 years. During his speech at Jackson Hole he confirms rate cuts in September due to inflation being under control and the labor market "cooling." Good news is inflation is under control, however this is only the start of our labor market "cooling." Jerome Powell is extremely late in cutting rates and will be cutting rates because we are getting BAD economic data and the cracks are showing in our labor market, commercial real estate, and banking sectors. The Federal Reserve 100% KNOWS a recession is coming that is why they are cutting rates. We have Jerome Powell come up on stage sweet talk to us about a soft landing, inflation under control, and how he will cut rates to help the labor market. He's not going to be instilling fear in Americans as a chairman. Just Remember, ALL FED POLICIES LEAD TO NEGATIVE OUTCOMES. Recession is coming, Sahm rule and inverted yield curve hasn't been wrong and it won't be wrong this time. This time it's not different. TLDR: Jerome Powell is too late in cutting rates causing a recession
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by justaturboman44
1
EURAUD Sell IdeaThe reason I am selling the EUR/AUD currency pair is because inflation in the Eurozone has eased to 2%, which could prompt the ECB to cut interest rates again. Meanwhile, inflation in Australia has risen slightly while the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates unchanged, and on the other hand, Australia's trading partner, China, is making efforts to boost its inflation, which has been under pressure, by cutting interest rates and providing future stimulus. Therefore, the AUD has better long-term prospects compared to the EUR. Sell Limit : 1.65700 Stoploss : 1.66100 Take Profit : 1.64500 Be safe and protect your capital with stoploss
Short
by ICT_ID
9
$NZDUSD | Sell Trade | Market Exec |Technical Confluences: Price action is in Overbought conditions for Daily and Weekly Timeframe Price bounced off the 38% Fibo retracement Price is also rejecting the Resistance trendline Price action also reversed away from an Interest Zone Fundamental Confluences: With all other Central Banks in the DM space wanting to cut rates, it negates off the yield premium that NZD would be getting against USD Market is consolidating after all the USD sell-off and profit-taking mood is here now ----- Took a short position here targeting the 38% Fibo extension level while will look to cut above the Interest Zone. Risk/Reward ratio is at 2.41. Price should not break above the Resistance trendline to affirm the recent price has topped out. -----
Short
by weekendanalyst
2
Will EU CPI support a quick rebound of DXY?Macro theme: - The dollar hovered near its lowest in over a year but downside momentum is fading as markets have already priced in Sep easing. - A short-term rebound is possible if the EU CPI continues its downward trend this week. Technical theme: - DXY formed a small double-bottom pattern around 100.50 in the 4-hour chart and bounced up to retest its neckline, which is confluence with EMA21, indicating a potential trend shift. - If DXY closes above its neckline around 100.90, the index may retrace further to retest the previous swing high around 101.60. - Conversely, DXY may retest the bottoms again if it closes below 100.80.
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
$PYPL | Allocated & Watchlist | Buy Limit & Buy Stop |Technical Confluences: - Stochastics are in Overbought conditions in the Daily Timeframe - Price is close to the top of the Parallel Channel and is currently in the Interest Zone - Price action bounced off the Mid of the Parallel Channel which strengthens a bullish trend - Fundamental Confluences: - Paypal is considered a market leader in digital payments space due to its extensive network, brand recognition and services - Revenue has been constantly increasing every quarter but lacking in revenue growth - Better EPS, good FCF and reduced operating expenses are good storylines - However, digital payment systems are facing alot of competition these days and Paypal being one of the initial pioneers will definitely need to step up and conquer back this space ----- I have previously allocated into Paypal previously at 58.80 (when it was bouncing off the 78% Fibo retracement line. I am still watching to continue to build up my NASDAQ:PYPL allocation. I will be looking to add more in the higher Buy Limit zone if the price breaks the Parallel Channel and goes above the Interest Zone. I will also look into buying again close to the 61% and 78% Fibo line; assuming price cannot break the parallel channel this round and retrace backs down. Will continue monitoring it. -----
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by weekendanalyst
8 Key qualities of a good traderA good trader often possesses a combination of skills, discipline, and mindset that sets them apart. Here are eight key qualities: 1. **Discipline**: A good trader sticks to a well-defined trading plan and doesn't let emotions drive their decisions. They consistently follow their strategies, whether in profit or loss, avoiding impulsive actions. 2. **Patience**: Successful traders understand that good trades don't happen every day. They patiently wait for the right opportunities that align with their trading strategy, avoiding the temptation to chase the market. 3. **Courage**: Trading often involves making difficult decisions under uncertainty. A good trader has the courage to take calculated risks, enter trades that align with their analysis, and stay in positions even when the market is volatile, as long as their strategy supports it. 4. **Confidence**: Confidence in their trading strategy and decisions is crucial for a trader. A good trader believes in their analysis and is not easily swayed by market noise or the opinions of others. This confidence helps them stick to their plan even in challenging situations. 5. **Consistency**: Consistency in execution is key to long-term trading success. A good trader applies their strategy consistently across different market conditions, refining it over time but maintaining a steady approach to achieve reliable results. 6. **Analytical Skills**: A strong ability to analyse market data, charts, and trends is essential. Good traders can interpret technical indicators, fundamental data, and market sentiment to make informed decisions. 7. **Risk Management**: Managing risk is crucial in trading. Good traders set stop-loss orders, position sizes, and risk-reward ratios to protect their capital. They understand that no trade is guaranteed, so they always prepare for potential losses. 8. **Adaptability**: Markets are constantly changing, and good traders can adapt to new conditions. They update their strategies as needed, learn from mistakes, and stay informed about market developments to remain competitive. These qualities, combined with experience and continuous learning, help traders succeed in the long run. Many happy trading years ahead.........NicheFX.
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by Costy13
2
Market News Report - 18 August 2024As it did last week, the yen was the biggest loser, losing against the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, and the British pound. Fundamentally, our outlooks from last week remain the same for all but one market. Let's cover each one in more detail now. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The latest Fed meeting was overall dovish. However, STIR (short-term interest rate) markets have suggested a 53% probability for a rate cut next month, down from 68% last week. The Fed isn't pressured to lower the interest rate due to recent positive retail sales and employment numbers. While this indicates steady growth, the fundamental bearish outlook remains. Peep at the FOMC minutes on Wednesday in preparation for the new federal funds rate in mid-September. The DXY chart aligns perfectly with the fundamentals, having just broken a recent key support. However, the break wasn’t strong enough, so 102.358 is still an area of interest for major support. Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348 and will likely remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. Markets anticipate at least two rate cuts before the year ends despite there being less urgency on the Fed (as mentioned earlier). The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobs data indicate a cooling of the US economy, another bearish sign. Only geopolitical risks, bond market selling, and interest rate differentials can affect this overall sentiment. So, we cannot rule out a bullish fight for the dollar, but it is unlikely to happen, at least quickly. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest EU retail sales indicate that the consumer is taking some time to recover from the inflation shock. The European Central Bank (ECB) has stressed they are data-dependent. For fundamental analysts, it means that certain economic data like employment may boost the euro While also indicating that their interest rate meeting is 'wide open,' markets see an 87% chance of a cut next month (up from 78% last week). Interestingly, the chart tells a different story. The euro broke the latest major resistance, a possibility which we suggested in our last report. We must now zoom out to a daily chart to see the next target (1.11396) more clearly. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.06494. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path with the interest rate. They are data-dependent, meaning data around inflation, growth, and wage improvement can lift the euro. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the start of this month. However, they remain data-dependent and have no set future path. STIR markets are currently pricing in an additional two cuts for the remainder of 2024. A key theme for the central bank currently is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. Any future misses here would likely weaken the GBP. As with the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. Still, the major resistance (1.31424) is some distance away, while the key support (1.26256) is also far away. With both outlooks for GBP and USD being bearish, this market is open to moving in any direction going forward. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The interest rate is the chief bearish driver for the pound. However, STIR markets predict a rate hold next month. Furthermore, two-way risks remain based on upcoming economic data (e.g., inflation, labour, economic growth). Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate is bullish for the yen. However, STIR markets expect a hold (100% probability, from 95% last week) at the next meeting. Watch out for the year-on-year inflation rate for JPY on Friday. USD/JPY continues to cool down or retrace after its multi-week massive decline. The major support level to watch is 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. In addition to the recent rate hike, other bullish catalysts for the yen include lower US Treasury yields. The Bank of Japan is actively intervening in the forex markets, contributing to the JPY's upside last month. However, having moved quite a distance, a further retracement is imminent. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unsurprisingly kept the interest rate unchanged on Tuesday to keep the fight against persistent inflation rate. Based on their language, a hike isn't out of the question this year. Like many currencies, the Aussie remains data-sensitive, whether we look at economic growth, labour, or inflation going forward. The recent rise in China's share prices, which correlates with the Aussie, has been positive for the currency. Still, there is doubt over the longevity of this run. As further proof of the short-term outlook, the Aussie market has risen noticeably. It's only about 130 pips away from the nearest major resistance at 0.67986, while the major support level is down at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA remains hawkish as per last week's meeting, focusing on core inflation. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, with recent labour data keeping the bullish script alive. However, keep in mind that the Australian dollar is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries, being a pro-cyclical currency. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The New Zealand dollar is the only currency for which we have updated the short-term outlook (from neutral to bearish). This is mainly due to the central bank dropping the Kiwi's interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25% last Monday. Lower-revised cash rate projections also hint at the potential for further cuts in the near future. Diarise the upcoming new year-on-year retail sales number as the main high-impact news for the Kiwi. Like its closest relative (AUD), the Kiwi has retraced upwards after just scraping the recent support area at 0.58524. This still remains the focal point, while the major resistance is at 0.62220, an area which it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The central bank's dovish stance in its latest meeting (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. As with its counterpart, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The ongoing mortgage stress in Canada has forced the Bank of Canada (BoC) to be dovish, the first major bearish catalyst. With a rate cut last month, STIR markets have raised the probability to 99% (from 88% a week ago) of the same next month. Watch out for the upcoming data on the CAD inflation rate and retail sales this week. Thanks to dollar weakness, the CAD continues to strengthen mildly. It now looks to test a fairly recent major support target at 1.35896, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with the BoC governor Macklem himself saying it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Moreover, STIR markets have priced in an additional cut sometime this year (aside from the one for next month). The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. However, encouraging oil prices, along with improvements in jobs, inflation, and GDP, may redeem the Canadian dollar. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets forecast a rate cut in September (an 82% chance) and December this year. Secondly, SNB expects a moderate improvement in inflation, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and unemployment to rise slightly in the near term. However, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like the Middle East crisis. Despite a notable retracement, USD/CHF is largely bearish. The key support area to consider is 0.84323. Meanwhile, the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion The fundamental outlooks of each currency have remained unchanged from the previous weeks, except for the New Zealand dollar. However, as expected, prepare for anything on the charts while aligning this activity with the fundamental summaries.
by CityTradersImperium_CTI