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Fundamental Analysis

Cryptocurrency Post-Halving Peak Timing Analysisx.com Analysis of cryptocurrency peak timings based on historical patterns following Bitcoin halving events. The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred on April 19, 2024, and this analysis measures potential peak timings from that point onward, drawing from past cycles. These estimates are derived from historical data! There are many ways to measure peaks. Yearly seasons to four year cycles. This method is purely based on Bitcoin halvings.
Long
by DiscoverTheChain
$INJ: Bullish reversal detected on the $INJ daily timeframe.CRYPTOCAP:INJ is a highly underrated project with immense potential. As part of the Cosmos ecosystem, it boasts a state-of-the-art blockchain featuring advanced tools, high speed, and low gas fees. I’ve been tracking CRYPTOCAP:INJ closely as one of my favorite tech projects. While it’s not as popular as CRYPTOCAP:SUI , I have strong faith in its technology and long-term potential. Looking at the charts, CRYPTOCAP:INJ has underperformed compared to other altcoins due to a bearish correction on the daily timeframe. However, this correction seems to be nearing its end. With the weekly timeframe still showing bullish momentum, CRYPTOCAP:INJ appears primed for a double push-up. Based on this analysis, I anticipate a strong rally, potentially reaching $30 and even $40 within the next month or two. DYOR!
Long
by CryptoNikkoid
1
WTI/OIL Bullish Signal triggered7 days ago my bullish signal for oil triggered and I am now long.Now many new facts are being released that are align with my signals. I have collected some very important and interpreted them.This will help you also t understand the backrounds. The bullish trend is currently at its weak phase where many false signals are ofcourse potentially possible. In this phase of the trend I focuse just on risk management(tightenning stops,to breakeven etc. But also increasing my positions in this phase and sizing them up are also possible. Later in strong phase of the trend Iwont increase my positions, but I let the profits run. I marked also Taking profits level for some of you who might are taking profits. Generally I let the profits run and just cut the losses if necessary. Important levels I marked in the chart. Here Important catalysts why I believe Oil will climb up: 1 India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion. India’s state-controlled refiner Bharat Petroleum (NSE:BPCL) announced its plans to invest $11 billion in a new refinery in southern Andhra Pradesh state, adding 180,000 b/d of capacity and an integrated petrochemical plant to meet domestic demand. France Launches First Reactor of 21st Century. 12 years overdue and four times the originally planned budget with a price tag of €13 billion, the Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor was finally connected to France’s power grid this week, marking the first addition of new nuclear capacity since Civaux-2 in 1999. 👉 Interpretation France Launches First Reactor of the 21st Century Key Details: Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor, costing €13 billion and delayed by 12 years, is now operational. First new nuclear capacity addition in France since 1999. Implications for Oil Prices: Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels: As nuclear energy replaces some fossil fuel-generated electricity, demand for oil (particularly fuel oil used for power generation in some regions) could decline slightly in Europe over the long term. However, this effect is minor since most oil demand comes from transportation rather than power generation. Transition Signals: The operational reactor signals Europe's commitment to energy transition, which may influence long-term sentiment about reduced reliance on fossil fuels. Neutral Short-Term Impact: Since the reactor serves a domestic market and does not affect global oil supply or demand immediately, the impact on oil prices is negligible in the short term. India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion Key Details: Bharat Petroleum plans a $11 billion investment in a new refinery with a capacity of 180,000 b/d and an integrated petrochemical plant. Focus is on meeting India’s growing domestic energy demand. Implications for Oil Prices: Increased Crude Demand: A new refinery requires crude oil as a feedstock, adding to global oil demand. Once operational, this expansion will support bullish trends in oil prices, especially as India becomes a larger importer of crude. Focus on Domestic Market: The refinery aims to meet rising domestic consumption, particularly for transportation fuels and petrochemicals, reinforcing India’s growing importance as a driver of oil demand. Positive Long-Term Outlook: While the refinery won't impact prices immediately, it highlights the bullish long-term demand trajectory for oil in emerging markets like India. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: India’s refinery expansion indicates long-term growth in oil demand, supporting bullish sentiment. Emerging markets continue to drive global oil demand, balancing out declines in demand from developed regions. Neutral or Bearish Factors: France's new nuclear reactor reflects progress in the energy transition, potentially reducing oil demand in Europe. However, the short-term impact is negligible. Conclusion India's refinery expansion supports a bullish outlook for oil prices, complementing bullish signal. While France’s nuclear reactor signals a step toward alternative energy, its impact on global oil demand is minimal and overshadowed by growing energy needs in emerging markets like India. Overall, the developments reinforce a stable to slightly bullish environment for oil prices. 2 Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria. The Turkish government is readying to start negotiations with the new al-Julani government of Syria to delineate maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea, a move that would allow Ankara to ‘increase its area of influence’ in energy exploration. US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout. The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan to Guyana for the construction of a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant that would use ExxonMobil’s associated gas production from the Stabroek block, staving off intense Chinese competition. 👉 Interpretation of this news Here's an analysis of how these developments might influence the oil market Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria Key Details: Turkey plans to negotiate maritime boundaries with the new Syrian government led by al-Julani. The goal is to expand Turkey’s influence in Mediterranean energy exploration. Implications for Oil Prices: Energy Exploration Opportunities: If Turkey successfully delineates maritime boundaries, it could lead to new oil and gas exploration activities in the Mediterranean. This would increase the long-term potential for energy supply, but the impact on oil prices would be delayed and dependent on successful discoveries. Geopolitical Risk Premium: Tensions surrounding maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean have previously caused geopolitical disputes (e.g., with Greece and Cyprus). The potential for disputes with other nations in the region could add a slight risk premium to oil prices. No Immediate Impact: Since this development involves negotiations and potential future exploration, it does not have an immediate impact on oil supply or demand. US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout Key Details: The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan for a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant in Guyana. The plant will utilize ExxonMobil's associated gas from the Stabroek block, reducing flaring and tapping into a previously unused energy source. Implications for Oil Prices: Gas as an Alternative to Oil: Increased natural gas production in Guyana could slightly offset demand for oil in power generation over the long term. However, this is unlikely to significantly impact crude oil demand globally. US vs. China Competition: The US financing reinforces its influence in Guyana, securing a foothold in the resource-rich region. This limits China's involvement but doesn't directly impact oil prices. Neutral Impact on Crude Oil: Since this involves natural gas and not oil, the direct impact on crude prices is limited. However, the increased utilization of gas could eventually reduce the flare gas associated with oil production, slightly improving efficiency in Guyana's oil operations. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: Potential geopolitical disputes from Turkey’s maritime moves could introduce a risk premium into oil prices. Long-term developments in Guyana's energy infrastructure reinforce stable energy supply, indirectly supporting efficient oil production. Neutral or Limited Impact: Both developments are longer-term in nature, with no immediate effect on crude oil supply or demand. The news leans more towards a neutral to slightly bullish influence on oil prices. Turkey’s maritime delimitation talks could introduce some geopolitical uncertainty in the Mediterranean, which may support a minor risk premium. However, neither of these developments directly counters or strongly amplifies your bullish oil signal, which remains supported by other recent market-moving news (e.g., Suez disruptions, Shell refinery shutdown). 3 Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) shut down one of its oil processing units at the 237,000 b/d Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore after the nation’s Port Authority reported a leak of oil products together with the cooling water discharge. Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal. The government of Mongolia has retracted the announcement of reaching a $1.6 billion deal with France’s uranium mining giant Orano, marking another odd roadblock on the way towards launching the Zuuvch Ovoo mine, in development since 2013. 👉I nterpretation of this oil trading news: Here’s how these developments could impact the oil market and your bullish signal on oil prices: Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak Key Details: Shell has shut down an oil processing unit at the Pulau Bukom refinery (237,000 barrels per day capacity). The shutdown was caused by a leak reported alongside cooling water discharge. Implications for Oil Prices: Tightened Refining Capacity: With one of Asia’s major refining facilities partially offline, there will be reduced supply of refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the region. This could support higher refined product prices, indirectly boosting crude oil demand as refineries aim to maintain supply levels. Short-Term Supply Disruption: Depending on the duration of the shutdown, the disruption could lead to localized supply shortages and increased imports to meet demand, which is bullish for oil prices. Environmental and Regulatory Fallout: If the shutdown is prolonged due to environmental regulations or extensive repairs, the market could factor in sustained supply tightness. 2. Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal Key Details: Mongolia has retracted its announcement of a $1.6 billion deal with France’s Orano for developing the Zuuvch Ovoo uranium mine. The project, in development since 2013, faces yet another delay. Implications for Oil Prices: Energy Diversification Delays: Delays in uranium mining projects hinder the global transition to nuclear energy, which is seen as a long-term competitor to oil and gas. This keeps oil demand relatively higher in the medium term. Market Sentiment: Although this news doesn't directly affect oil supply or demand in the short term, it underscores uncertainties in alternative energy projects, potentially reinforcing the importance of fossil fuels for global energy security. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: The Shell refinery shutdown could tighten regional supply and indirectly boost crude oil demand to support refining operations. Mongolia's uranium deal setback highlights delays in alternative energy development, indirectly supporting continued oil reliance. Neutral or Limited Impact: The uranium deal issue has no immediate bearing on oil markets but contributes to long-term energy security discussions. Conclusion The Shell refinery shutdown aligns well with bullish signal, as it adds a layer of supply disruption to the oil market. While the Mongolia news has less immediate impact, it reflects ongoing challenges in energy diversification, subtly reinforcing oil's role in the energy mix. Together, these developments lean towards a supportive outlook for higher oil prices in the short term. 4 All these news matter: While we got early bullish signals during the last days,now more news are released.Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue. Egypt reported that its Suez Canal revenues have plunged by 60% year-over-year in 2024 as Houthi maritime warfare cost the North African country at least $7 billion, worsening Cairo’s plight as the Egyptian pound slid to a record low over the past month. Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies. Libya’s Benghazi government agreed to a proposal from the rival Tripoli government to end fuel subsidies in the war-torn country, with gasoline prices remaining artificially low at $0.11 per gallon, the second-cheapest in the world. Interpretation of oil trading news today: Here’s how the two developments could influence the oil market, particularly in light of your bullish signal on oil prices: Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue Key Details: Suez Canal revenues are down 60% year-over-year due to Houthi maritime attacks. Losses of $7 billion exacerbate Egypt’s economic woes amid a record low for the Egyptian pound. Implications for Oil Prices: Supply Chain Disruption: The Suez Canal is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments. If Houthi attacks escalate or disrupt transit, it could delay shipments and increase transportation costs, creating upward pressure on oil prices. Risk Premium: Geopolitical instability in the region adds a risk premium to oil prices, as traders factor in potential disruptions. Currency Devaluation Impact: The weakening Egyptian pound might not directly influence oil prices, but it reflects economic instability that could worsen if the Suez remains compromised. Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies Key Details: Rival governments in Libya are cooperating to end fuel subsidies. Gasoline prices, currently at $0.11 per gallon (among the cheapest globally), are set to rise. Implications for Oil Prices: Higher Domestic Costs: Removing subsidies could reduce Libya’s domestic fuel consumption, leaving more oil and refined products for export. Market Balance: Increased exports from Libya could counteract some supply tightness caused by other factors, potentially capping oil price increases. Political Stability: This rare cooperation between Libya’s rival governments could indicate improving governance, which might increase Libya’s crude production and exports in the long term. This could have a bearish effect on oil prices if the market views it as a stabilizing factor. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: Suez Canal disruptions and geopolitical instability add to the risk premium on oil. Supply chain concerns may tighten market sentiment. Bearish or Neutralizing Factors: Libya’s subsidy removal could lead to increased exports, easing supply pressures. What to Watch For: Suez Canal Traffic: Any further disruptions or escalations in Houthi maritime warfare could amplify bullish momentum in oil prices. Libya’s Export Trends: Monitor whether Libya increases its crude oil and product exports following the subsidy removal. In summary, the Suez Canal situation supports the bullish signal you've received, as it poses a significant risk to global oil logistics. Libya’s subsidy removal might introduce a balancing effect but seems less likely to fully offset the bullish momentum from Middle East instability. More Tensions in the middle east in 2025 building Under Pressure, Iraq to Cut Gas Flaring. Amidst reports that Donald Trump might sanction Iraq’s imports of Iranian natural gas, Baghdad promised to cut flaring volumes by around 20% next year to meet rising demand, expecting to capture more than 85% of associated natural gas production. Finland Seizes Suspicious Russian Tanker. Finland’s coast guard has boarded and seized the Eagle S tanker carrying Russian oil in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of having caused an outage of an undersea electricity cable connecting Finland and Estonia, investigating potential sabotage. Beijing Issues 2025 Product Export Quotas. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued the first batch of refined product quotas for next year totaling 19 million tonnes, unchanged year-over-year, with recent changes to the country’s 13% export tax rebate making gasoline and diesel exports sub-commercial. The news from Beijing about product export quotas and the export tax rebate has several potential implications for the oil market, particularly refined products like gasoline and diesel, which could indirectly influence crude oil prices. Here's a breakdown: Key Points: Unchanged Export Quotas (19 Million Tonnes): The quota is the same as last year, suggesting that China isn't planning a significant increase or decrease in refined product exports. A stable quota means China's refining capacity and crude oil import needs might not shift drastically in the near term. Export Tax Rebate Adjustment: China's 13% export tax rebate on refined products like gasoline and diesel has been adjusted, making exports less profitable or even "sub-commercial" (not economically viable). This discourages the export of refined products, potentially keeping more supply within China for domestic consumption. Implications for Oil Prices: Domestic Market Focus: If China prioritizes domestic consumption over exports, its domestic demand for crude oil (used to produce refined products) might stay strong. This can be bullish for crude oil prices as China's overall demand remains a key driver. Global Supply Dynamics: Reduced exports of gasoline and diesel from China could tighten global supply of these refined products, potentially driving up their prices. Higher refined product prices could encourage refineries worldwide to increase crude oil processing, boosting crude oil demand. Market Sentiment: The market might interpret this as a sign of strong domestic demand in China, which is generally positive for oil prices. However, if global economic concerns dominate, the muted export quotas might limit the bullish effect. Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices could see short-term bullish momentum due to perceived demand strength and tighter refined product supply globally. Traders might also be cautious, monitoring other factors like global economic data, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical tensions. Conclusion: This news leans slightly bullish for crude oil, as it signals steady domestic demand in China and potentially tighter global supply for refined products. However, how oil prices react depends on broader market sentiment and other macroeconomic factors. Since you've received a bullish signal on oil, the news could support the signal, but always keep an eye on additional developments and technical confirmations in the market.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
GBPUSD preparing a long bull run!I think sentimentally (fundamentally) we should see a long bull run coming this january. So far I have a weekly/monthly level support area being respected. I also have a minor shift in in structure level on the daily. On the 4h am patiently waiting for a retest during one of the sessions ( NY/LNDN), then to confirm an entry, I will be using the 1h. I could be wrong though since fundamentally anything can happen in january since, you know, Trump can be very unpredictable.
Long
by Braveyn
12/27/24 - how i'm thinking about '25 and playsdearest friends thanks for following my stream of thoughts starting mid way this year. my publishing started as a way to "log" my thinking when i encountered new names to both hold myself accountable and not repeat my process, as had been the case many times before. and i figured... why not make it public, in case it added any value to the never ending game and puzzle we call "markets" (infinite quotations and IYKYK). judging by many of the likes, comments, follows and of course DMs (my favorite! you guys know who you are)... i really enjoyed it. as we turn the page into '25 1/ it's important to remember that what worked in '24 won't necessarily work in '25. however, for stories and factors that remain secular growers, there's no reason to believe they shouldn't offer further opportunity at the right prices 2/ we will face unknown unknowns. most of them, usually fake and g&y, will affect the tape and cause all sorts of bent out of shape emotions. we've all been there. but that's why it's important to show up, do the work... sunshine and rainbows or halloween at Diddy's. what's important is to have a plan and use the trading session to act, not react. and when you're confused... you're probably not alone, and sometimes the best thing to do, is nothing. 3/ technology is changing our lives at such a rapid pace and (working inside the world of Bitcoin and AI)... it concerns me a bit that most people have very little idea what's happening. while those of us who follow markets (as well), can discern these tides as the mkts are forward looking, even the markets, i believe, are not entirely pricing in this disruption for a number of reasons and the major one remains the idea that the dollar is the ultimate denominator. maybe i'll start at this (last sentence) to share my book into '25. what is the main way i'm positioning? - 3 themes. Bitcoin. AI. Energy. - concentrated - math and valuation matters to me when we look at the non mag7's (or even ex-US) in '24, it has become clear that the dollar milkshake is the best drink on the planet (for now). and with good reason. the tech moats built here are consuming the world, whether it be Google, Apple or Nvidia (or Tesla, or ... fill in the blank). even the incoming president wants to "make" Bitcoins in the US. that's the right idea. but one has to remember that we now live in such a printer go brrr "or else" world, that it's important to identify the assets that will either grow the fastest and are also not accurately priced for this growth runway. easier said than done. but many of these moats are essentially uninterruptible movies, especially as hardware now represents an (again) important input to these stories. so the denominator that i describe in the beginning of this paragraph (USD) is secondary to these asset-level denominators "money". *we have been taught that the USD is "money" and while that is technically true, it is is increasingly less true. the USD is increasingly a currency-only and the S&P, assets with harder supplies, like BTC are beginning to take a more center stage in this definition* so the goal is to be on the lookout for "money" that outperforms all other denominators. does your tech stock grow at 10% but cost you 30x PE? (like NASDAQ:AAPL ?) will that be a better "money" than NASDAQ:NVDA growing at 50% and trading at 30x PE? of course time will tell, but likely... NASDAQ:NVDA will outperform $aapl. so this is the logic. 1/ top pick remains $gdlc. it's about 25% of my book. many of you remember when it was 50%, 60% ("ALL IN" post). you're familiar with my sizing/ managing risk. and it's worked. the discount has gone from 35-40% to 10% today. it's still an excellent way to own CRYPTOCAP:BTC (about 70% of this fund is CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) and likely gets converted into an ETF in '25. but BTC remains in a precarious spot for now and i'd like to see some ST resolution on the downside before taking the size higher. more on this in future posts or if you'd want to debate in comments. 2/ second pick is $nxt. the ticker i've written most about. thesis is: solar represents largest incremental generation source for next 5-10 yrs. trackers are critical infra to these industrial deployments. there is no better solution than NASDAQ:NXT as they continue to take mkt share across the board. backlog is growing QoQ. earnings beat after earnings beat. 10% fcf yield, about 100% fcf conversion (NI->FCF) and ceo is a rockstar. it's a $60 stock today trading at $35 and at the whim of the ST flows in 1/ solar denial esp w Trump (but elon is big solar proponent), 2/ many solar names aren't best investments so water down the appetite for the passive flows/ ETFs ST and 3/ it's a rates-energy sensitive sector for now. however, NASDAQ:NXT has done an excellent job bucking all these trends and i remain confident the stock will hit its stride and don't want to keep a small position with where valuations are today (near floor IMHO) 3/ NYSE:TSM and NASDAQ:NVDA complex. i own both. just wrote about NASDAQ:NVDA this evening. NYSE:TSM is the only way all these next gen chips get built. AI/ GPU, CPU... ASICs (Bitcoin miners, among others). there is no second best. growth is 30%+, FCF yields are 5%+... "but muh taiwan risk". yeah. it's there, so what. size accordingly, be prepared. and there's $nvda. which while NYSE:TSM is 20x PE, NASDAQ:NVDA is 35x PE, but grows at 50% a year. there is no second best here either. i prefer to own the winners until proved otherwise in semis-related. the idea is to own the best verticals... and the top dog, such that valuation permits. both check these boxes. 4/ $uber. complicated, but also becoming a larger position in my book. AV (autonomous vehicles a la Musk) have taken the shine off this cash flow monster. nevermind their partnerships w/ Waymo and how AV will likely grow the transportation pie (at the expense of vehicle mfg's, NOT trips), but this will take time and the overhang is there. reminds a bit of the coof in '20 and travel names. took a while for the market (and people) to figure it all out... and resume w/ daily activities. the idea w/ NYSE:UBER is that 1/ AV isn't a winner take all market and Uber is the best demand aggregator out there and 2/ AV likely grows the transportation pie b/c cost to move is a fraction of vehicle ownership today. so you'd likely have one less vehicle as an example, and as a result, your uber, or robotaxi trips probably 10-20x in a year. so even if take rate is ultimately lower, the pie is multiples larger. anyway. big cash flow generator, growing high teens. CFO speaking recently a lot of strength going into '25. travel into YE has been solid. 4Q results likely great. stock cheap. 5/ "the bag". stuff I trade around, but worth flagging (and i won't get into shorts). this changes. but FOR NOW, i own... NASDAQ:LYFT , NASDAQ:BTDR , NYSE:S , NU, HIMS, NASDAQ:OKTA , NASDAQ:PDD , $TMDX. no particular order and not disclosing size b/c that would be distracting as i trade these around (e.g. PDD and HIMS were just re-added today lol) and a healthy 30% cash balance. in case of a dippity do dah at some pt in 1Q. many of my names are ITM C's (long dated) which allows me a full gross book... while maintaining liquidity. so there's that. it's been a good year. family, friends. jesus is lord. but let's turn the page. let's not rest on what's happened. onward and upward. love u all happy new year V PS - I picked this ticker to post on bc it made me lol :)
HKEX:82Long
by VROCKSTAR
2
12/27/24 - $nvda - don't overthink it. $200 in '2512/27/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NVDA don't overthink it. $200 in '25 - while you might be distracted by the 10x's being made in these last few months... space memes, salad bots, and now quantum fanboi <3, don't get lost in the meme and miss the best long with the best sharpe out there, NASDAQ:NVDA - while you scan X and there are mentions (valid) of application specific chips, NASDAQ:GOOGL and NASDAQ:AVGO come to mind, as does NASDAQ:AMZN , the demand for NASDAQ:NVDA 's silicon and cuda moat, nevermind the networking (M&A...) that have built this monster essentially mean there is *unlimited* demand. - while the AMEX:VOO FIRE bro's are happy to own a ton of NASDAQ:AAPL , let the smooth brain maintain it's contour. paying 35x for barely 10% EPS growth and at the whim of consumer's cracked out on CC debt is "better than fiat". cool. but we want the ultimate denominator that's a good offset to our CRYPTOCAP:BTC position. - NASDAQ:NVDA is growing EPS at 50+% for the next few years and trading at 30x PE. cash yields are still 3-4% at this growth. so "price target"? friend. 50x is more approps. - will orange man create some shake and bake in the markets that involve china/ taiwan and put this at $100... $125... at some pt? god knows. and i'm not part of the klub, so i prefer my tool... math/ reason which allow me to create position sizing and conviction in what this co has delivered. - took the oppty today to start re-building my length, even tho i'd also love the sticker lower. jan 17 2027 100C's for $60 is a good leg in. and i've got some ST gas on the Jan 17 2025 130C's b/c i see the stock strong in this tape and believe it's a core pick/ rotation from a lot of the trash that's rallied and runs hard into YE and early Jan (where i can monetize and creates some optionality). but if doesn't work/ i've not necked out, and can decide on right expires/ shares or play by ear. - oh. and if this matters. because it should. it's a rare situation/ name where population growth and affluence/ consumer woes don't really factor in. the customers are fiat rich AF. population could get cut in half tmr, and NVDA will grow just as fast. would the stonk get nailed b/c passive flows, mkt risk off all that jazz? duh. but the pt is, the underpinnings are much more unique than most consumer/ tech plays. - nvda remains at the epicenter of the AI disruption. and we might be inning 2? plan accordingly. V
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by VROCKSTAR
Bitcoin midterm and short term BEARISH,Increasing VolatilityI am currently bearish again in BTCUSD. After hitting all time high in December 2025 as expected BTCUSD was not able anymore to increase gains. THE LONG TERM TREND IS BULLISH; BUT MID AND SHORT TERM TREND bearish. Above 100.582 although it seems that bulls gain power, the bears attack fast and successfully the bulls. (orange area). In the chart you see how I dvided the prices into two categories(red+green areas) OR WHERE BULLS (green) and bears(red) have control. AT 100K;9560 specially volatility increases fast, a sign that these areas are fought by both powers. In these ares mayn false signals and false breakouts on both sides are possible.(fire) A drop below 90560 leads BTC to 81229,73k and 68,7K Below that area we will face a choppy but volatile market. The increaisng of volatility gains power of news,(also fake news), sudden catalysts.So be aware specially in those areas. The long term POC(Magnet sysmbol) is located at 49559 now.That is very important as these locations are very big magnets and attracting the price. In between we have very dangerouse gap that is also attracting BTCUSD price.(see the Chart) Here some important new of the last days and my interpretation that align with my bearish signal: Republicans will still have to deal with the debt ceiling in 2025....(the news and Interpretation how it will affect financial markets and crypto in 2025) Although President-elect Donald Trump wanted to start 2025 without having to worry about the debt ceiling, he did not get his wish. Addressing the debt ceiling, which will be reinstated on January 2, is still on the list of congressional Republicans’ New Year’s resolutions. The House last week fell far short of passing a two-year extension of the suspension of the limit as part of a GOP-led government spending bill. 👉M y Interpretation: Here’s how it could impact Bitcoin and the markets in general: The news regarding the U.S. debt ceiling highlights a potential risk to financial markets and the broader economy in 2025. Here’s how it could impact Bitcoin and the markets in general: Key Points from the News Debt Ceiling Reinstatement The U.S. debt ceiling will be reinstated on January 2, 2025, and congressional Republicans are expected to address it. A debt ceiling crisis can cause political and economic uncertainty, especially if there is a failure to raise or suspend the ceiling. Government Spending Package Last week, Congress passed a government funding bill that did not address the debt ceiling, disappointing President-elect Donald Trump’s wishes to resolve the issue sooner. Potential Market Impact Debt ceiling crises in the past have led to market volatility, particularly in equities, as investors react to the uncertainty and the potential for a government shutdown or a default on U.S. debt obligations. Implications for Bitcoin and Markets Increased Risk and Volatility Debt ceiling concerns often create broader market anxiety, especially in traditional markets. Bitcoin, being seen as a "safe-haven" asset by some investors, could experience increased interest if there are fears of U.S. financial instability, a default, or a downgrade of U.S. credit. Demand for Alternative Assets During periods of heightened economic uncertainty or risk of financial crisis, assets like Bitcoin and gold are often viewed as alternative stores of value. Investors may seek refuge in these assets, increasing demand and possibly providing upward pressure on Bitcoin prices. Risk of U.S. Dollar Volatility Dollar volatility due to the debt ceiling issue could also lead to heightened interest in Bitcoin. A weakened dollar could boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, pushing prices higher. Conversely, if the U.S. government resolves the debt ceiling issue efficiently, the pressure on Bitcoin may ease, and its price may fall. Market Sentiment and Speculation Given Bitcoin's speculative nature, market participants may react strongly to news surrounding the debt ceiling. Speculative trading could amplify price swings, especially as investors price in possible outcomes of the debt ceiling debate. How This Affects Your Bitcoin Position Potential for Volatility(Fire symbol in the chart) If the debt ceiling issue creates a crisis, Bitcoin could see increased demand as a safe-haven asset, potentially driving prices higher in the short term. However, if the situation stabilizes without a major crisis, the demand might subside, and Bitcoin’s price could stabilize or decline. Key Resistance and Support Watch for key levels around the current Bitcoin price (e.g., $93K-$95K). If the debt ceiling crisis intensifies, these levels could be breached in either direction depending on market sentiment. $90K and $85K remain critical support zones if the bearish trend continues. Monitor Global Sentiment Keep an eye on broader market sentiment, especially around U.S. debt ceiling developments and their effects on traditional financial markets. If broader markets experience a sell-off due to debt ceiling issues, Bitcoin could initially benefit from a flight to alternative assets. Conclusion The debt ceiling issue is a significant risk factor that could cause increased volatility in both traditional financial markets and Bitcoin. Given Bitcoin’s reputation as a hedge against uncertainty, the news could lead to short-term price increases if investors flock to it as a safe-haven asset. However, it’s essential to monitor how the U.S. government addresses the issue and the overall market sentiment. Continue to manage risk carefully, as the situation may evolve quickly. Bitcoin’s ‘Kimchi Premium’ Jumps Amid South Korean Political Turmoil (this news+ 👉I nterpretation) “Kimchi Premium,” which refers to the price gap between Bitcoin on South Korean exchange Upbit compared to Coinbase, has surged to the range of 3-5% this week, according to data compiled by blockchain data platform CryptoQuant. An increase in the metric usually indicates an elevated demand from South Korea-based investors in Bitcoin. The same metric for stablecoin Tether also has surged to the similar range. “South Korea faces an unprecedented wealth outflow amid political turmoil, declining birth rates, and slowing growth,” said Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant. “Inflation fears drive conversions of won assets into US stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and dollars. Many crypto investors prefer exchanges over banks, with Tether and Bitcoin trading at 2-5% premiums. 👉I nterpretation: This news about Bitcoin’s "Kimchi Premium" highlights the dynamics of South Korea's crypto market amid political and economic turmoil. Let’s break it down in the context of trading approach and bearish signal: Key Insights from the News Kimchi Premium Surge (3-5%) The "Kimchi Premium" reflects the higher price of Bitcoin on South Korean exchanges compared to global exchanges like Coinbase. A 3-5% premium signals elevated demand from South Korean retail investors. This surge suggests strong local buying interest, likely driven by uncertainty in traditional markets and the weakening South Korean won. Inflation Concerns and Asset Diversification Wealth outflows and inflation fears are pushing South Korean investors to move their capital into alternative assets, including Bitcoin, Tether, US stocks, and gold. A preference for crypto exchanges over banks adds to the demand, with Bitcoin and Tether trading at a premium. Political Turmoil President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration, impeachment, and the ongoing crisis have destabilized financial markets. The uncertainty adds to investor anxiety, further increasing the demand for alternative assets. Retail-Driven Market South Korea’s crypto market is predominantly retail-driven due to restrictions on corporate accounts. This means that market sentiment and speculative activity significantly influence prices. Weakened South Korean Won The won's decline against the US dollar (0.35%) adds to the appeal of USD-denominated assets like Bitcoin and Tether. This could sustain or even expand the premium. Implications for Bitcoin's Price Short-Term Buying Pressure in South Korea The Kimchi Premium surge indicates localized demand but doesn’t necessarily mean a global price rally. The premium reflects South Korea’s retail enthusiasm, not broader market strength. Impact of Retail Speculation Retail-driven buying can create short-term upward momentum but often lacks the sustainability of institutional-driven demand. If global macro factors or technical resistance levels remain bearish, the local demand may not prevent further declines. Risk of a Bubble or Sudden Sell-Off A rising premium can sometimes signal excessive speculation. If South Korean retail investors begin unwinding positions, it could lead to a sharp local correction, adding selling pressure to global markets. How This Aligns with Your Bearish Signal Localized vs. Global Trends While the Kimchi Premium shows localized buying pressure, your bearish signal likely reflects global market trends. Bitcoin’s recent drop from $104K to $93K aligns with broader market dynamics and not just South Korea-specific activity. Watch for Technical Reactions If Bitcoin approaches key support levels (e.g., $90K), South Korean demand could provide temporary relief. However, a failure to hold support might invalidate local demand as a bullish factor. Evaluate Reversals Cautiously Even with rising demand in South Korea, monitor if the global bearish trend shows signs of reversal (e.g., higher lows, breaking key resistance levels like $95K-$100K). Until then, stick with your bearish outlook. Key Levels and Trading Strategy Support Zones Key levels to watch: $90K and $85K. A break below these could signal further downside, regardless of localized buying interest. Resistance to Watch If Bitcoin rebounds, resistance at $95K-$100K will be crucial to determine whether the bearish trend is weakening. Potential for False Breakouts South Korea-driven price spikes might create false breakouts. Ensure your technical signals confirm any potential reversal before adjusting your strategy. Bottom Line The surge in the Kimchi Premium reflects localized demand due to South Korea’s political and economic instability. However, this does not necessarily negate the global bearish trend you've been following. Continue monitoring global signals, support/resistance levels, and whether the localized buying pressure can translate into broader market strength. Stay disciplined and adapt your strategy based on technical confirmations rather than isolated news events. News2 Why Bitcoin (Still) Likely Has Not Reached a Cycle Top Yet Over a longer-term horizon though, there are plenty of indicators that suggest we may still be a way, in both time and price, from a cycle top in Bitcoin. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, which compares the current price to the aggregate cost paid for all outstanding Bitcoin, has moved up from the < 1 level that has historically marked bear market bottoms in early 2023 to roughly 3 as of late December 2024. 👉I nterpretation Let's break down this news in the context of your bearish signal on Bitcoin and how it could influence the current market dynamics: Key Insights from the News MVRV Z-Score at ~3 The MVRV Z-Score is used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical patterns. Historically, cycle tops occur when this metric moves significantly higher, often near 7. At a Z-Score of 3, the news implies that Bitcoin is still below levels historically associated with a cycle top. This suggests there could still be room for upward movement in the longer term. Long-Term Holder (HODLer) Supply Decline A 7% drop in the proportion of Bitcoin held for over a year indicates increased selling pressure from long-term holders. This release of 1.4M BTC into the market adds to the supply, creating potential headwinds for price growth. Despite this, the news points out that cycle tops typically occur when this indicator drops further, suggesting we haven’t yet reached that point. ETF Inflows and Market Offset While long-term holders have been selling, some of this supply pressure has been absorbed by large ETF inflows. However, this balancing act might not sustain the price if selling accelerates. Uncertainty in Historical Patterns The article emphasizes that Bitcoin’s historical cycles may not repeat exactly due to limited data. This means that while historical indicators suggest the cycle top isn’t yet reached, the current cycle could deviate. Implications for Your Bearish Signal Short-Term Downtrend The bearish signal you received two weeks ago aligns with the current price drop from 104K to 93K. This selling pressure might be attributed to long-term holders liquidating part of their positions, as the news mentions. Medium- to Long-Term Outlook Despite the short-term bearish action, the MVRV Z-Score and HODLer supply suggest the cycle top may still be ahead. This means the current drop might be part of a broader consolidation or retracement before another rally. ETF Inflows as a Buffer While long-term holders selling adds pressure, ETF inflows could stabilize the market. Watch for news about ETF approvals, inflows, or rejections, as these could heavily influence Bitcoin’s next move. How to Align with Technical Analysis Short-Term Action Stick with your bearish signal for now, as the price trend supports it. If Bitcoin continues to fall or fails to hold key support levels (e.g., $90K), the bearish trend could intensify. Monitor Key Levels Watch for significant support zones (e.g., $90K or $85K). A break below these levels could validate further downside. On the flip side, if Bitcoin starts consolidating and moves back above $95K or $100K, it may signal a potential reversal. Use Leading Indicators Keep an eye on the MVRV Z-Score, HODLer behavior, and ETF news. A change in these metrics could signal whether the bearish momentum is temporary or part of a broader trend. Bottom Line The news indicates that the current bearish trend might be a retracement within a larger bull market. However, in the short term, supply pressure from long-term holders and bearish technical signals could continue to drive prices lower. Stay cautious, manage risk, and monitor both the technical levels and fundamental indicators closely. This combination will help you navigate the market effectively.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DaveBrascoFX
1
SOL/USDT 1W Chart ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the 1W SOL to USDT chart, looking at the large time frame, we can see how the price is moving in the uptrend channel in which we currently have a visible correction approaching the lower part of the channel. Seeing the current correction, which most likely held on support at our first stoplos, we will designate the locations of the next potential SLs: SL1 = 184 USD SL2 = 166 USD SL3 = 143 USD SL4 = 117 USD However, if the price changes direction and the visible green candle starts gaining strength, it is worth moving on to setting goals for the near future, which include: T1 = 211 USD T2 = 234 USD T3 = 253 USD T4 = 271 USD
by cryptodailyuk
Litecoin, Shitecoin: An OpportunityAs much as I blast Litecoin, I think there's a trading opportunity here. Some other OG cryptocurrencies have gone up 5x recently - XLM and XRP, for instance. I don't mind this, because I actually think those coins are at least a little more viable as currencies than Bitcoin. I'm keeping this short. Just taking advantage of volatility. A 40%+ pullback with the potential of a 200% move? I'll take it. Here to have fun, not here to question things right now. Litecoin active addresses are stable around 300k, though having steadily moved up over the last couple of years from 200K. bitinfocharts.com Bitcoin active addresses have climbed a bit recently up to 750K, after actually declining the last couple years. bitinfocharts.com As crappy as price behavior has been for LTC over the years, I like its growth pattern to an extent. It's important to keep in mind that while on a very slow long term uptrend, Litecoin has broken down out of its major long term uptrend (orange) This was why I had assumed more downside was to come. Given that LTC tends to pump last in the cycle, I'm taking a gamble on this thing flying back into the long term uptrend. There's A LOT of resistance overhead, especially at the broken uptrend, near $150-160 currently. Here's the shorter term structure, with some bullish arrows drawn. Taking out the recent low near $85 would be a bearish sign and could send price quickly back to $66 support. Let's see what happens. If the market has already topped, oh well. Risking a neglegable amount here. R/R seems decent to me. This meant for speculation and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by VictorCobra
BTC Will FLYA significant shift in Bitcoin's trend has been observed, as the upward parallel channel has given way to a top-bottom flat channel. This change in trend direction is clearly captured in the chart patterns. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the support line of the newly formed top-bottom flat channel. A reversal from this level could spark a substantial upward move. Our analysis suggests that Bitcoin is poised to retest the $100,000 level. Trading Strategy -Signal: BUY Bitcoin (BTC) -Entry Zone: 94000 - 94500 Target Prices: 1. TP1: 96200 2. TP2: 98000 3. TP3: 100000 Stop Loss: 92500 Follow my professional profile and support me as I can post more profitable ideas for you guys.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chart_Champ1
4