Fundamental Analysis
Watching and Waiting for a Trend line break on GBPAUDWatching and waiting for this pair to break this trend line on the H4 time frame.
Reasons I think price will break through:
- RSI was overbought on H4
- Bearish RSI Divergence on H4
- Bullish candles are getting smaller
What do you think?
*Also please remember these are trading ideas and not trading signals. Thank you.
Watching and Waiting for a Trend line break on EURAUD Watching and waiting for this pair to break this trend line on the H4 time frame.
Reasons I think price will break through:
- RSI was overbought on H4
- Bearish RSI Divergence on H4
- Bullish candles are getting smaller
What do you think?
*Also please remember these are trading ideas and not trading signals. Thank you.
PEPE/USDT Chart Analysis $PEPE/USDT Technical Analysis
#PEPE The price is undergoing a healthy correction within an ascending channel, stabilizing near the key support at 0.00001515 USDT. Holding above this zone could push the price towards 0.00002511 USDT and 0.00003340 USDT. Breaking below the support may lead to further correction to 0.00001290 USDT.
"Bitcoin to $13M per coin" - Michael SaylorBitcoin annualized performance is 60% on average
Let that sink in
Most traders trading Bitcoin aren't nowhere near that.
1. Introduction to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy
Michael Saylor began by outlining MicroStrategy’s decision to make CRYPTOCAP:BTC its primary treasury reserve asset.
He explained that the company sees Bitcoin as a superior store of value and an effective hedge against inflation.
Traditional fiat currencies, according to Saylor, are increasingly unreliable due to monetary policies that devalue them over time.
By embracing Bitcoin, MicroStrategy positions itself as a pioneer in the corporate adoption of digital assets.
2. Leveraging Zero-Interest Convertible Bonds
Saylor delved into MicroStrategy’s innovative financing strategies, particularly the issuance of zero-interest convertible bonds.
These bonds, amounting to approximately $3 billion, were issued with a 0% interest rate.
This seemingly advantageous rate is a result of high investor demand, driven by the value of the embedded call options within the bonds.
The volatility of MicroStrategy’s stock, tied closely to Bitcoin’s price movements, makes these options particularly appealing.
NASDAQ:MSTR volatility is about 2X the CRYPTOCAP:BTC volatility.
Additionally, the bonds were issued at a 55% conversion premium, the highest for such instruments at the time, reflecting strong market confidence in the company’s strategy.
Saylor explained that these zero-interest loans allow MicroStrategy to acquire CRYPTOCAP:BTC without the financial burden of servicing interest payments.
This approach enables the company to maximize its exposure to Bitcoin while maintaining financial flexibility.
3. Current Bitcoin Holdings and Financial Impact
Saylor provided an update on MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings.
As of November 2024, the company owns 279,420 bitcoins, purchased for a total cost of $11.9 billion, with an average acquisition price of $42,692 per Bitcoin.
With Bitcoin’s price surpassing $90,000, the company’s holdings are now worth over $25 billion, representing more than a 100% return on investment.
He highlighted how this significant appreciation in Bitcoin’s value has bolstered MicroStrategy’s market capitalization and increased shareholder value.
The company’s bold approach has attracted considerable attention from institutional investors and positioned it as a leader in the corporate adoption of Bitcoin.
4. Future Outlook for Bitcoin
Saylor expressed an extremely bullish outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting that its price could rise to $13 million per coin in the long term.
He emphasized that Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing adoption make it an inevitable cornerstone of the global financial system.
Saylor believes that Bitcoin’s value will continue to increase as more institutions and individuals recognize its potential as a store of value and an inflation hedge.
He also addressed the regulatory landscape, noting the challenges posed by governments and central banks.
However, Saylor remains optimistic, arguing that the decentralized nature of Bitcoin makes it resilient against such challenges.
5. Critique of Traditional Financial Systems
Saylor criticized the inefficiencies and risks of traditional banking systems and fiat currencies. He explained that central banks’ monetary policies, such as excessive money printing, erode the value of fiat currencies, making them unreliable for long-term wealth preservation.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, offers a decentralized and deflationary alternative that protects against these risks.
He also argued that Bitcoin’s adoption is inevitable as it offers a superior solution for wealth storage in a digital, globalized world.
Saylor positioned Bitcoin as a foundational technology for financial innovation.
6. Strategic Vision and Long-Term Commitment
In closing, Saylor reaffirmed MicroStrategy’s long-term commitment to Bitcoin. He emphasized the importance of maintaining a forward-looking vision, especially during periods of market volatility.
For MicroStrategy, Bitcoin is not merely an investment but a strategic asset that aligns with the company’s core mission of creating and preserving shareholder value.
Saylor ended by encouraging other companies and investors to consider adopting Bitcoin as part of their long-term strategies, arguing that early adoption offers the most significant rewards.
He underscored the transformative potential of Bitcoin, not just for corporations, but for the global financial system as a whole.
7. LONG AND STRONG
Critics of MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin strategy raise valid concerns, particularly regarding market volatility, regulatory risks, and the company’s reliance on debt to fund its investments.
However, it’s important to understand the rationale behind Michael Saylor’s approach and the broader context of Bitcoin as a financial asset.
Saylor’s strategy reflects an unwavering belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value as a hedge against inflation and a superior store of wealth compared to fiat currencies.
His boldness in using innovative financial instruments, such as zero-interest convertible bonds, demonstrates his deep understanding of both financial markets and the transformative nature of Bitcoin.
Saylor’s intelligence and foresight cannot be underestimated.
He is betting on a paradigm shift in global finance, and institutions like pension funds, BlackRock, and other financial powerhouses are beginning to adopt similar strategies, reinforcing his vision.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is not a speculative, short-term investment; it is a long-term play.
The minimum recommended investment period for Bitcoin should be 10 years, while the optimal strategy is to hold it indefinitely.
Selling Bitcoin prematurely undermines its potential as an asset designed to preserve and grow wealth in an environment where politicians and central banks continue to print money, devaluing traditional currencies.
Betting against Saylor and Bitcoin is betting against a future where decentralized, deflationary assets redefine the financial system.
As Saylor often emphasizes, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing global adoption make it an asset poised to appreciate forever, rewarding those with the patience and foresight to hold for the long term.
Thank you for reading
Daveatt
NAVIGATING THE MARKET PULLBACK🚨📉 #MarketPullback: Navigating the Market Pullback 📉🚨
The market pullback has many traders and investors on edge. Here's what you need to know to stay ahead:
💡 Understand the Trend:
A pullback could be a short-term dip in an ongoing uptrend or a sign of a larger correction. Identifying which one it is can help you make informed decisions.
🔍 Opportunity or Caution?:
A pullback presents an opportunity to buy at lower prices, but only if you believe the market will recover soon. Otherwise, holding off or cutting losses might be a safer play.
⚠️ Risk Management:
If you're buying the dip, ensure you're managing your risk. Setting stop-loss orders can help minimize potential losses if the market continues to drop.
🌍 Market Sentiment:
Pay attention to news and investor sentiment. If the pullback is caused by external factors, such as regulatory changes or macroeconomic conditions, it could last longer.
🤔 Are you ready to make your move or sitting this one out? Let me know your thoughts below!
🔥📊💬 Stay sharp. Stay informed. Trade smart. 💬📊🔥
Ripple-XRPUSD Periodic Analysis (Issue 54)The analyst believes that the price of { XRPUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend.
Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Will XRP stay in the sideways trend channels?Hello everyone, I invite you to a quick review of the XRP to USDT chart on the 12H interval.
As we can see, the XRP price is moving in a sideways trend channel in which the price bounce did not effectively overcome the resistance at $ 2.27, the next resistance is at $ 2.47, but then we have visible resistance at $ 2.61, another strong resistance is at $ 2.78, and only when we have a positive exit from the channel, the price can get a strong upward impulse around the resistance at $ 3.29.
In a situation where the market will have a further reaction and the price will start to fall again, we have visible support at $ 2.22, then strong support at the lower limit of the channel at $ 1.94, however, if the price leaves the channel at the bottom, it may get a drop to around $ 1.72, and further, taking into account the height of the channel, there may be a price reversal to $ 1.39.
The RSI indicator has room for continued growth, but a lot depends on the behavior of BTC itself.
The Ultimate Day Trading Framework: Rules for Consistent SuccessThese are general trading rules that serve as a foundation for your strategy. You must work on them further to develop a precise plan tailored to your preferences, the markets you trade, your time zone, and other related variables. The goal is to create a clear, actionable framework that you can follow consistently every single trading day. 🔍📈📊
General Trading Rules
Categorize Observations into Binary Decisions
Simplify decisions into two options (e.g., Risk On vs. Risk Off).
Decision determines the trade approach. ⚖️
Follow a Rule-Based System
Rules are essential for processing setups quickly and accurately. 🛠️
Focus on keeping the process simple and systematic.
Market Conditions
Trend vs. Trading Range
Trend:
Look to swing more of your position.
Uptrend: Prioritize buying. 📈
Downtrend: Prioritize selling. 📉
Trading Range:
Buy low and sell high (scalping focus). 💱
Risk Management
Evaluate Risk On vs. Risk Off for each setup. 🚦
Probability Assessment
Categorize setups as High Probability vs. Low Probability. ✅❌
Execution
Stay Agile
Constantly assess market conditions and adapt strategies accordingly. 🔄
Focus on Key Setups
On average, expect about 40 setups per day.
Be selective and only act on setups that meet your criteria. 🎯
By personalizing these rules and following them diligently, you can bring clarity and consistency to your trading process.
How to Trade Christmas and New Year Winter Holidays
As the winter holidays are already around the corner, you should know exactly when to stop trading and close your trades, and when to resume.
In this article, you will learn how Christmas and New Year holidays affect the financial markets and I will share with you my trading schedule.
First, let's discuss how winter holidays influence the markets.
Winter holidays lead to a dramatic reduction in trading volumes.
Many traders and investors take vacations in that period.
Major financial institutions, banks, hedge funds often operate with reduced staffing and early closes or are completely close for holidays.
All these factors inevitably lead to the diminished trading activity.
Look at the schedule of official banking holidays in many countries.
Since Tuesday 24th, the banks are officially closed in Europe, UK, USA and so on.
But why should you care?
If you have free time, why can't you continue trading?
Even if you trade technical analysis, you should admit the fact the fundamentals are the main driver for significant price movements.
One of the major sources of high impact fundamentals is the economic news releases in the economic calendar.
Look at the economic calendar.
You can see that the last day of high impact news releases will be Friday, December 20th.
After that, the calendar is completely empty.
The absence of impactful fundamentals will inevitably make the markets stagnate, making trading very boring.
Above is the EURUSD price chart with ATR technical indicator (the one that measure the market volatility).
We see a clear drop in volatility during a winter holiday season.
You can behold a similar pattern on Gold chart.
With the big politicians taking vacations during the holidays season,
we tend to see the local easing of geological tensions accompanied by a lack of significant foreign and domestic policy actions and announcements.
That's the US congressional calendar.
There are no sessions since December 23rd.
But there is one more reason why you should not trade during winter holidays.
The absence of big players on the market will decrease the overall trading volumes - the liquidity.
Lower liquidity will unavoidably increase the bid/ask spreads.
The widened spreads will make trading more costly, especially if you are scalping or day trading.
And when should you resume trading?
It always depends on how actively the markets wake up after holidays.
The minimal starting day will be January 6th.
I usually do not trade this week and just watch how the markets starts moving.
I prefer to begin my trading year from Monday next week, the January 13th.
Holidays seasons will be the best period for you to do the back testing and learning.
Pick a trading strategy that you want to trade with in a new year and sacrifice your time to back test it on different instruments.
Learn important theory and various techniques, relax and prepare your self for a new trading season.
Have a great time, traders!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Weekend Crypto Pulse: $BTC at $95,415 & $ETH Leading DeFi – Top Good morning, champions! ☀️
While traditional markets take a breather, crypto keeps the grind alive. 🕒
CRYPTOCAP:BTC holds strong at $95,415, still defying gravity,
and CRYPTOCAP:ETH sits at $3,527, the DeFi heartbeat going strong.
Weekend movers:
📈 CRYPTOCAP:AVAX up 4.5%, turning heads in the Layer-1 race.
📈 CRYPTOCAP:SOL climbing 3.2%, showing resilience in its recovery arc.
Take a moment today: plan, prep, sip that coffee. 🛠️ Balance your charts with a bit of mindfulness—crypto’s a marathon, not a sprint.
What’s your strategy for today’s market movers? Any hidden gems on your radar? Let’s share some insights. 💡
Btc next moveFirst scenario:
The price reaches the red box (small green candles), then the powerful red candle and further decline to 90500
Second scenario:
The price breaks the box with strong candles and reaches 108350 after the pullback.
If any of the above scenarios happened, we take a long or short position. After completing the scenario, the next move is analyzed.
HAUTO: TP NOK 141,- Generous dividends (+25%) [Pink: HOEGF]Some say Car-carrier (PCTC ) trade macro is challenging in, others claim this comes to pass late '26 or '27. All the while generous dividends are an insurance. Short term movements may meet resistance, must hold +100-ish, looking to medio jan 2025 for more upside.
Conensus TP : NOK 141
When and Where this Bull Market Ends / BTC.D and TOTAL3 BehaviorCRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Bitcoin Dominance and Alt Season Trigger:
The chart indicates that when Bitcoin Dominance reaches around 59%-64%, there’s a high chance of an BTC dominance market correction. This level often signals the end of a Bitcoin rally and the start of funds flowing into altcoins.
You can use this dominance level as a timing signal to anticipate the start of the next alt season.
Historical Patterns and Timelines:
Key vertical markers show important dates from past cycles, such as 2018, 2021, and projected points for 2025. These points highlight recurring patterns that can help forecast the end of the current Bitcoin rally.
TOTAL3 Index Trends Relative to BTC:
The TOTAL3 index (all altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) shows that after Bitcoin Dominance declines, TOTAL3 often experiences a sharp rise. This pattern has repeated in previous cycles, hinting at a potential similar move in the upcoming alt season.
Bitcoin Price Rallies and Corrections:
The lower chart shows Bitcoin's bullish and bearish phases, typically lasting between 450 to 550 days. This timeframe can help estimate the remaining duration of the current Bitcoin rally.
Future Predictions:
Based on the chart, Bitcoin Dominance is expected to reach critical levels again in 2025, potentially marking the start of the next major alt season. While this timeline depends on market conditions and investor behavior, it offers a general framework.
Total3 dumping, BTC crash. The untold reason.You'll hear it all over Twitter and YouTube: "The FED scared investors, and they decided to pull their money out, blah blah."
Let's be real—that's utter nonsense.
Investors had no real reason to pull money out of altcoins. Where would they move it to? The real story lies with the whales manipulating CRYPTOCAP:BTC to trap the ones who sold their CRYPTOCAP:BTC too early..
Here’s what really happened: we had a mini altseason, where many CRYPTOCAP:BTC holders took profits and shifted into altcoins. This caused a pump in CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 and a drop in BTC.D.
But then, to punish these moves and siphon off profits, the whales decided to crash CRYPTOCAP:BTC , conveniently using the FOMC as a cover.
If you sold CRYPTOCAP:BTC at, say, 100k and moved into riskier assets like SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:FLOKI , SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:BONK , or CRYPTOCAP:UNI , the whales made you lose 40%-50% of your capital by dumping CRYPTOCAP:BTC just 10%. Where did that lost value go? Straight into their pockets.
I know people who thought they were being clever, saying, "This is the peak; I'm moving to alts for x2 or x3 gains." Now they’ve lost 50% and are kicking themselves, wishing they’d never sold their $BTC.
This isn’t random. It’s not a coincidence. It’s a coordinated play to vacuum up the profits from anyone thinking they could outsmart the system.
DYOR.
CRYPTO SUPER CYCLE 2024-2026:BEAR TO BULL ALL WHAT YOU NEED HERE🔄 CRYPTO MARKET CYCLES: MAJOR TRANSITION - FROM BEAR TO BULL 2024-2026
Technical Market Cycle Analysis:
- Current price: $346.31
- Clear transition from bear to bull market
- Three distinct cycles identified: BTC, ETH, ATLS
Market Phase Breakdown:
📉 Bear Market (2022-2024):
- Declining trend complete
- Bottom formation validated
- Accumulation phase ending
📈 Bull Market (2025-2026):
- BTC cycle initiating bull run
- ETH cycle following
- ATLS cycle completing the sequence
Key Observations:
- "Traders confusion" zones marked at critical transitions
- Clear cycle progression: BTC → ETH → ATLS
- Market structure showing higher lows forming
- Volume profile supporting bullish transition
⚠️ Critical Points:
- Major market cycle shift in progress
- Multiple timeframe alignment
- Clear cycle rotation pattern
- Historical pattern repetition
🔔 Market Intelligence:
- Bull market projected until end of 2026
- Three distinct crypto cycles identified
- Clear market phase transitions
- Institutional accumulation evident
#CryptoMarketCycles #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #MarketPhases
Want detailed cycle breakdown? 📊FOLLOW ME
Unlocking the Wheat Matrix: The Code to Dominating CommoditiesUnlocking the Wheat Matrix: The Code to Dominating Commodities
What if I told you there is a way to see the hidden signals of the market? To move not with the herd but ahead of it, where clarity reigns and profits follow. This week, we delve into Wheat (ZW) — a market where the COT strategy reveals its secrets. The choice is yours: read on and learn, or remain blind to the patterns all around you.
Decoding the Setup
Understand this: this is not an invitation to blindly leap into the market. No, we wait. Patience is the cornerstone of mastery. When the technical tools confirm the market’s strength, only then do we act. Now, let’s break down the wheat matrix:
Code 1: Commercial and Small Speculator Positioning
The Commercial COT Index, using a 26-week lookback, reveals that commercials are at an extreme in long positioning. At the same time, the Small Speculator COT Index shows small specs aligning at a similar extreme. In the wheat market, unlike others, we follow the small specs rather than fading them. A deviation from the norm—an anomaly in the matrix.
Code 2: Commercial Extremes in Net Positioning
Commercial entities are nearing their most bullish stance in three years. History whispers a truth: when commercials move like this, the market often follows.
Code 3: Contrarian Signal from Investment Advisors
The masses of investment advisors are overwhelmingly bearish. Against this backdrop, the extreme bullish positioning of commercials sends a powerful contrarian signal. The matrix is showing its hand.
Code 4: Valuation Metrics
Wheat stands undervalued against U.S. Treasuries. When value aligns with positioning, the code becomes clearer.
Code 5: Seasonal Patterns
Seasonal truths tell us that wheat’s true bottom often forms in early January. This aligns perfectly with the cyclical and technical signals currently emerging.
Additional Signs in the Matrix
Spread Divergence: Bullish spread divergence between front and next month contracts.
Accumulation Indicators: Insider Accumulation Index and Williams ProGo confirm accumulation.
Technical Tools: %R is in the buy zone, and Weekly Ultimate Oscillator Divergence further supports the bullish narrative.
Cycles: The Recurring Patterns
44-Month Cycle: A major bottom forms now.
830-Day Cycle: Signals an upward move into March.
151/154-Day Cycles: Align with a cyclical bottom occurring now, projecting strength into March.
The Red Pill of Action
With these signals converging, the urge to act immediately can feel irresistible. Don’t. The matrix requires patience. Let the market reveal its strength. When the time comes, you’ll ride the wave with confidence.
The Path to Mastery
Trading isn’t merely a series of moves; it’s a philosophy. The COT strategy is a key, but only those who seek mastery will unlock its full potential. If you’re ready to see the market for what it truly is, join Tradius Trades. Here, we don’t just navigate the matrix of commodities—we redefine it. Are you ready to free your mind?