Cocoa to new highs before New YearVery aggressive trade, I'm skeptical about the Interest rates lowering coming in next months, though it should have a positive effect not just on precious metals but also agrocommodities.
Fundamental Analysis
Russell 2000 - rolling over?US stock index futures began the week on the front foot this morning. All four majors were trading in positive territory, shrugging off a mixed close on Friday night, and a generally disappointing week. Only the tech-heavy NASDAQ registered a gain last week, and this was just a modest 0.3%. The S&P 500 lost 0.6%, while the Dow and Russell 2000 lost 1.8% and 2.7% respectively. In fact, a look across the daily charts suggests that, while the NASDAQ displays upside momentum as it continues to hit fresh record highs, the S&P is now consolidating, and the Dow and Russell 2000 maybe rolling over, following an exceptionally strong bullish run. In some ways it’s surprising that the domestically-focused, mid-cap Russell should be in decline, given that small business optimism has surged higher since Donald Trump’s decisive election victory in early November. The news saw the Russell finally post a new record high, three years after the last one, as investors priced in the prospect of deregulation and a favourable tax environment. Perhaps some profit-taking should be expected after the Russell’s outperformance in November. But if that’s all it is, then buyers should soon turn up to take advantage of cheaper prices. Following last week’s inflation data, the consensus expectation is that the Fed will announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut following the close of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. If so, that would mean the Fed has cut by 100 basis points this year, or more accurately, since September. This is short of 150 points priced in at the beginning of the year, yet it has still provided a strong tailwind for equities in 2024. As things stand, the Fed is forecast to cut by a further 50 basis points next year, although much depends on inflation resuming its previous downward trend. In other news, Palantir and MicroStrategy have jumped higher following their inclusion, along with Axon Enterprises, in the NASDAQ 100. Super Micro Computers, Illumina and Moderna are all out.
Daily Analysis of Ethereum – Issue 230The analyst believes that the price of { ETHUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend.
Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Is Uber a good buy at the current price? Here is whyHello,
Here is our outlook on Uber Technologies.
Uber Technologies, Inc provides a platform that allows users to access transportation and food ordering services. The Company operates through two segments: Core Platform and Other Bets.
The Core Platform segment consists of Ridesharing and Uber Eats. The Other bets segment consists of Uber Freight and New Mobility platforms. Ridesharing refers to products that connects consumers with drivers who provide rides in a variety of vehicles, such as cars, auto rickshaws, motorbikes, minibuses and taxis. Its Uber Eats platform allows consumers to search for and discover local restaurants and order meals through online.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist
Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)
Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- A correction forming. Price is at the bottom of the corrective wave.
Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- Await zero crossover on MACD
Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- As shown in chart
Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target at $100 per share
Uber Technologies, Inc. financial performance for Q3 2024 and the nine months ended September 30, 2024.
Total Revenue: $11,188 million for Q3 2024, $32,019 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.
Income from Operations: $1,061 million for Q3 2024, $2,029 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.
Net Income including Non-Controlling Interests: $2,599 million for Q3 2024, $2,944 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.
Net Income Attributable to Uber Technologies, Inc.: $2,612 million for Q3 2024, $2,973 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.
Basic Net Income per Share Attributable to Uber Technologies, Inc. Common Stockholders: $1.24 for Q3 2024, $1.42 for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.
Diluted Net Income per Share Attributable to Uber Technologies, Inc. Common Stockholders: $1.20 for Q3 2024, $1.36 for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.
Revenue from the United States and Canada was $17,304 million, Latin America was $2,068 million, Europe, Middle East, and Africa was $8,939 million, and Asia Pacific was $3,708 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.
Uber announced the pending acquisition of Foodpanda Taiwan from Delivery Hero SE for approximately $950 million in cash, expected to close in the first half of 2025.
Beginning in early 2025, Waymo and Uber will bring autonomous ride-hailing to Austin and Atlanta, only on the Uber app. In these cities, Uber will manage and dispatch a fleet of Waymo’s fully autonomous, all-electric Jaguar I-PACE vehicles that will grow to hundreds over time.
You can find a summary of financial statements here:
Our recommendation
Since February 2024, Uber's stock (UBER) has been undergoing a correction, largely driven by concerns over the rise of robotaxi services potentially eroding the market share of traditional ride-hailing giants like Uber and Lyft. Notably, Waymo—Alphabet's autonomous vehicle division—recently expanded to Miami and now completes over 150,000 self-driving rides per week. Tesla is also set to enter the space with a planned robo-taxi launch in late 2025.
However, Uber is not sitting idle. The company, in collaboration with WeRide, has launched an autonomous mobility service in Abu Dhabi and is targeting fully driverless commercial services by late 2025 in the same region. This demonstrates Uber's proactive strategy to stay competitive in the evolving ride-hailing landscape. Beginning in early 2025, Waymo and Uber will bring autonomous ride-hailing to Austin and Atlanta, only on the Uber app.
The sharp decline in Uber's stock price—down 34% in recent weeks. The MACD indicator is showing that we shall be having a zero crossover soon hence suggesting that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, potentially signalling a trend reversal. The stock appears poised to recover and return to a more balanced supply-and-demand dynamic.
Despite current challenges, we expect Uber to remain resilient and successfully navigate market headwinds. The current price level presents a compelling buying opportunity, with a target price of $100.00 offering significant upside potential for investors who act now.
Current price: $60.80
Good luck and best regards.
FED's Impact on GoldThe Federal Reserve has signaled that it will continue with interest rate cuts in 2025, but at a slower pace. It is not expected to make a cut in January, due to persistent inflation and labor market strength. This suggests that the Fed will be more cautious in its next moves, keeping interest rates higher for longer than expected. Gold, traditionally a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty, could be affected by these policies. Prolonged high interest rates could make dollar assets, such as bonds, more attractive to investors, which would decrease demand for gold. However, inflation remains a relevant concern, which keeps gold as an option to protect purchasing power. In addition, the strength of the labor market could continue to put pressure on inflation, which would benefit gold as a safe haven.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold starts the week with a bullish momentum, trading at $2659. To continue its advance, it needs to overcome resistance at $2666, which could lead it to look for the next resistance at $2685. The checkpoint zone is at $2637, which marks a key support level.
Technical indicators, especially the mid-range crossovers, suggest that gold could face a bearish consolidation. If this scenario is confirmed, the price could pull back towards the checkpoint at $2637, a level to watch closely to assess the strength of the trend.
Short-Term Outlook
In conclusion, even if the Fed maintains a cautious stance, gold remains a valuable asset in the face of inflation and economic uncertainty. In the short term, gold faces resistance at $2666 and could correct towards $2637 if technical indicators suggest a bearish consolidation. However, inflation and economic strength could continue to support gold demand.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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Hang Seng - Stimulus package still lingering to the upside?Hi guys , next we would look into the Hang Seng. With the Stimulus package made in the Chinese economy we saw a very big boost into the price of the Hang Seng, of which afterwards we saw a decent correction to the current level, I believe from this point forward we would formulate an an ascending channel and push towards the higher level, maybe not the strong Resistance Level, but around the level which I wrote down on the chart.
Entry : 19,740
Target : 20,621
I have entered with 250 contracts.
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Consolidation Midweek Rally #8I wanted the price to break last week’s high to confirm that it was moving upward, and this happened on Tuesday. I decided to wait for Wednesday, specifically after 2:30 PM NY time, to see if the price would return to the 15-minute order block. However, that didn’t happen. Instead, the price formed a double bottom, and below it, there was a 4-hour order block and the high of the mitigation block. Seeing this, I chose to step back and not trade.
On Friday, I also didn’t trade because I avoid trading after three consecutive daily candles, even though I expected the price to create the high of the week on that day.
Enzyme is a Great Project IMOI have been meaning to post on MLN for a while. It is a small market cap but a really great project IMO. It essentially is trying to democratise fund creation so that anyone can create a fund that others can invest in. This is a major part of moving from the ponzi that is most of defi currently to something sustainable and I think it has the potential to become a major player in the defi space long-term. Immediate target is just over $100 but long-term could be face-meltingly high. I won't speculate now because there is not enough data but i'm thinking maybe around $3500 at the moment (approx. $10bn FDV)
US 10Y TREASURY: expecting a 25 bps cutAs the Feds December meeting is approaching, so the market nervousness is increasing. During the previous week the 10Y US benchmark reverted back toward the 4,4% level, from 4,2% traded previously. Such a move was a reflection of market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by additional 25 bps on December 18th. Also, ahead of the FOMC meeting, November inflation data was published, showing 0,4% increase in November, higher from market expectation of 0,2%.
Increased volatility might be expected also during the first two days of the week ahead. The current 4,4% level for 10Y US Treasuries might be its highest level for the week. As per CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently 97% odds that the Fed will cut by 25 bps. In this sense, some relaxation in yields might be expected during the week ahead.
Gold: only a short correction?The price of gold slipped a bit during the previous week, to adjust for the rise of the US Dollar. The highest-lowest trading range was between levels of $2.725 down to $2.650 where the price is closing the week. Still, analysts see this drop in price as only a temporary move, considering the FOMC meeting scheduled for December 18th, where the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 bps.
The RSI dropped to the level of 48, but is still not clearly indicating that the market is ready for a move toward the oversold market side. The MA50 continues to slow down its divergence from MA200, but the convergence has not started yet. This postpones the potential for a cross in the coming period.
All markets are currently set for a Fed's decision during the week ahead. This might imply some increased volatility during the week. As per current charts there are two possible scenarios for the price of gold for the week ahead. In one case, if the current level of $2.650 is broken toward the downside, then the price will continue its down trend, at least till the $2,6K support line. On the opposite side, if current level sustains, then the price will revert toward the upside, till the $2,7K resistance level.
SPX: in green to end a year?A week after the S&P 500 reached a new ATH, the market slowed down a bit during the previous week. The new ATH has been tested for a potential for further move toward the upside, however, there has not been enough market strength, so the index reverted just a bit to the downside. The lowest weekly level reached was 6.030 points.
The market's beloved tech companies were traded with a modest negative sentiment, except TSLA. A brand new star of the week was company Broadcom, which surged 24% for the week, after the company published that its AI-generated revenue soared by an incredible 220%. Analysts are noting high probability that the equity market will continue to head toward the upside till the year end. Such sentiment will be supported by the expected Fed rate cut of 25 bps on December 18th. However, they are also noting that the switch from large caps toward the small cap companies has been occurring for some time now, and will continue in the future period, supported by the environment of decreased interest rates.
EURUSD: the FOMC week aheadThe most important event for the eurusd currency pair during the previous week was the ECB meeting, where euro interest rates were cut by another 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 3%. In an after the meeting address to the public, ECB president Lagarde noted that more cuts might come in the early 2025, which will set the euro rates to neutral. Analysts are noting that this cut represents further ECB efforts to cope with both inflation and weakening of the Euro Zone economy. As for other macro data published during the week, the inflation rate in Germany final for November was -0,2% for the month and 2,2% on a yearly basis. Trade balance in Germany in October was positive with euro 13,4B, a bit lower from the market consensus of euro 16B.
Inflation data in the US were published during the previous week. Inflation reached 0,3% in November for the month, and 2,7% on a yearly basis. At the same time, core inflation was standing at 0,3% in November and 3,3% for the year. The Producers Price Index in November was 0,4% while core PPI was standing at 0,2% for the month.
The currency pair started the previous week by shortly testing the 1,06 resistance line, but soon switched to the downside. The lowest weekly level reached was 1,045. The eurusd is ending the week at the level of 1,05. The RSI modestly reached level of 41, but still is not ready to cross the 50 line and move further toward the overbought market side. The MA50 continues to diverge further from its MA200 counterpart, without an indication over a potential cross anytime soon.
The week ahead brings the FOMC meeting on December 18th, when the Fed will decide on the future course of interest rates. The market is expecting to see another 25 bps cut. This might impact some higher volatility on the market. As per current charts, there is some probability that eurusd might test 1,06 resistance level for one more time, but there is higher probability that the currency pair will turn back toward the 1,04 support level.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for December in Germany, Ifo Business Climate in Germany for December, Balance of trade in the Euro Zone in October, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany in December, Inflation Rate final for November in the Euro Zone, GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany for January, PPI index in November in Germany.
USD: Retail Sales in November, Industrial Production in November, Building Permits preliminary in November, FOMC Meeting and economic projections, Fed Press Conference scheduled for December 18th, GDP Growth Rate final for Q3, PCE Price Index in November, Personal Consumption and Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for December.
Daily Analysis of Bitcoin – Issue 230The analyst believes that the price of { BTCUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend.
Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Bitcoin: the demand holdsBTC had a relatively mixed week, but was traded around some positive news. Namely, the CEO of BlackRock, the largest investment company in the US, expressed his opinion that an optimised portfolio should contain up to 10% exposure in BTC. This is how BlackRock is advising its clients. Still, BTC started the week in a negative sentiment, reaching its lowest weekly level at $94.565. A positive sentiment returned to the market, so the BTC headed back toward levels above the $100K.
The RSI continues to move within a highly overbought territory, easing a bit till the level of 62. A clear reversal path has still not started, which is postponed due to strong demand for this coin, in the post-election period. The MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, without any indication of a potential slowdown in the coming period.
As BTC continues to move within the high-demand territory, the technical analysis indicators should be taken with a precaution. It is evident that the BTC will start its reversal at one point in time, but the exact timing is not possible to predict clearly based on technical indicators. The latest move from the $94K levels back to $101K levels shows that there is still hidden demand for the coin, which is waiting for the dip in price in order for cash flow to be moved into BTC. This sentiment will most certainly continue also in the future period. When the high demand for BTC will be exhausted, nobody can predict. However, what is certain is that BTC will continue with its volatility within a relatively short range, between the $95K levels, and back toward the $101K range.
MARKETS week ahead: December 16 – 22Last week in the news
The ECB cut euro reference rates by 25 basis points, which the market expects also for Fed at their FOMC meeting on December 18th. Markets were traded in a relatively mixed manner during the previous week, positioning as per expectations for the forthcoming rate cut. The S&P 500 tested for one more time the recent ATH, however, ended the week a bit lower, at the level of 6.051. The price of Gold reverted a bit during the week, on US Dollar strengthening, closing the week at the level of $2.647. The US Treasuries were reacting on inflation data, in expectation of the forthcoming rate cut, where the 10Y benchmark yields returned shortly back toward the 4,4% level. The crypto market had a relatively mixed week, with BTC shortly tested the $95K support line, but ended the week above the $100K level.
The European Central Bank cut interest rates for another 25 basis points, as expected. The ECB is for some time struggling to achieve the inflation within the targeted level of 2%, and to sustain the Euro Zone economy which was hit by the environment of high interest rates. The ECB President Lagarde tried to stay optimistic, and pointed to the better-than-expected growth in Q3 and that “the economy should strengthen over time”. The latest ECB economic projections were also optimistic. It projects a growth of 1,1% in 2025, while inflation should move around targeted 2%. Still, it should be mentioned that these projections do not include effects of potential moves from the US newly elected President.
The company Broadcom was highly discussed in the news during the previous week. It was in the market stoplight due to the company's surge in the price of shares by 24% for the week, after the company published that its revenue generated through AI products soared by an incredible 220% for the quarter. At the same time, the company reached a $1 trillion club. At the moment analyst opinions are divided regarding the future prospects for this company. On one side, there are those who strongly support the opinion that the company's value will only grow amid increasing demand for AI chips, while on the other side are those who noting that it is a heavy field for one company to stay competitive to NVDA.
The US Nasdaq index, which follows the 100 largest US companies, announced that it is planning to include MicroStrategy in its latest yearly rebalancing of the index. Analysts are noting that this move will be positive for Michael Saylor`s company, as it will increase the demand for shares originating from exchange traded funds.
News is reporting that one of largest banks in France, Societe Generale has successfully conducted the first Repo transaction with the National Bank of France. Bonds were deposited on Ethereum blockchain, in exchange for the central bank digital currency.
Crypto market cap
During the previous week the crypto market was traded in a mixed manner. One of the supporting notes for BTC came from CEO of the BlackRock investment fund, Larry Fink, who noted his opinion that a diversified portfolio should contain up to 10% exposure in BTC. A strong demand for BTC still holds on the market, which helped this coin to return toward levels above the $100K, after modestly reverted to $95K. Still, total crypto market capitalization decreased by modest 2% during the end of the week, losing some $80B in value. Daily trading volumes also eased, reaching $279B on a daily basis, which is a drop from $405B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $1.862B, which represents a 114% surge from the beginning of this year.
Most of the crypto coins were traded with a negative sentiment during the previous week. Still, the market was driven by BTC, in which sense, total weekly loss eased due to inflow in BTC of $ 26B, increasing its value by 1,3% on a weekly level. On the opposite side was ETH, with a weekly loss in the market cap of $19B or 3,95%. DOGE was also on a losing side, with a drop in value of $9,5B or more than 14%. ADA dropped by 12,2%, decreasing cap by $ 5B, while BNB ended the week down by 5,8%, losing $$6,2B. Among the highest losers in relative terms were coins like Bitcoin Gold, which dropped by 41% w/w, DASH, EOS, IOTA, DOT lost more than 20% in value, while the majority of other coins lost somewhere between 6% and 20%. Tether was one of rare coins which increased its market cap by 1,65%, increasing by this percentage the number of its coins on the market.
Increased activity within the field of circulating coins continues. The highest weekly increase came from SOL, which increased the number of circulating coins by 0,6%, and was followed by IOTA, with a surge of 0,5%. Thai week Filecoin increased the number of coins by 0,4%, while the majority of other coins had an increase of 0,1%.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market reflected the sentiment from the spot market as of the end of the previous week. BTC short term futures were holding relatively flat compared to the previous week, while the longer term ones just modestly dropped by around 0,5%. However, futures maturing in December 2025 were traded almost flat to the week before, with closing price of $111.685, and $114.090 for maturity in March 2026.
ETH futures which are maturing as of the end of the year had a significant drop of 18% on a weekly level. The longer maturities had a lower weekly drop of around 3,5%. Futures maturing in December 2025 closed the week at the level of $4.242, while those maturing in March 2026 were last traded at $4.320.
Buy this on panic saleexcellent opportunity to buy shares of a good company profitably, yes, perhaps there are some speculations about the reporting or documents. But I think that supermicro has a strong, stable and serious business
Cocoa vs BTC. Introducing Cocoa Futures Commodities TradingCommodity trading has been booming in recent months and years, as everything from industrial metals to oil, precious metals to soft commodities (coffee, cocoa) is getting hotter.
Last week, coffee futures traded in New York ICEUS:KC1! reached 348 cents per pound of beans, a new historical high, and frozen orange juice concentrate futures ICEUS:OJ1! exceeded the $5 mark for 1 pound, reaching also a new all-time high.
The macroeconomic situation, the continuing geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the overall market volatility caused by these large movements, create a lot of new opportunities.
In addition, the food and environmental crisis sweeping across the planet (a special type of environmental situation when the habitat of one of the species or populations changes in such a way that it calls into question its further existence) is creating extreme bottlenecks in supply chains everywhere, which leads to shortages on the one hand, and a corresponding increase in prices and opportunities on the other.
Both private investors and professional market participants can use Commodities Cocoa Futures to expand the possibilities of investment strategies - hedging risks and profiting from price fluctuations.
For market participants involved in the production and processing of cocoa, futures contracts will allow them to better protect their income from undesirable changes in exchange prices for cocoa beans.
In addition, for those market participants involved in the wholesale purchase of cocoa, futures contracts allow them to better protect their margins from undesirable price fluctuations in exchange prices for cocoa beans, which lead to an increase in purchasing costs.
The underlying asset of the futures is the price of cocoa beans on foreign markets. The contracts reflect the dynamics of the price of cocoa beans supplied from countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America to any of the five delivery ports in the United States.
In fundamental terms, on November 29, 2024, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) raised its estimate of the world cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to -478,000 tonnes from -462,000 tonnes forecast in May, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO also lowered its estimate of cocoa production for 2023/24 to 4.380 million tonnes from 4.461 million tonnes in May, a -13.1% decrease from the previous year. ICCO forecasts world cocoa stocks to be 27.0% in 2023/24, a 46-year low.
Cocoa prices have risen sharply over the past months due to uncertainty about future cocoa supplies. Recent heavy rains in Ivory Coast have led to reports of high mortality of cocoa buds on trees due to heavy rainfall.
Unfavorable weather conditions in West Africa are pushing cocoa prices sharply higher. Heavy rains in Ivory Coast have flooded fields, increased the risk of disease, and affected the quality of the crop. Newly harvested cocoa beans from Ivory Coast are showing lower quality, with quantities of about 105 beans per 100 grams. Ivory Coast regulators allow exporters to purchase quantities of 80 to 100 beans or slightly more per 100 grams.
In other words, West Africa is now exporting at its maximum productive capacity, but the deficit in world reserves remains and is growing.
The arrival of seasonal harmattan winds could also worsen the situation.
Declining global cocoa stocks is also a bullish factor for prices. Cocoa stocks tracked by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at three major US ports (Delaware River Port, Hampton Roads Port and New York Port) have been declining for the past year and a half and fell to a 20-year low of 1,430,974 bags on Friday, December 13, 2024 (down 15 percent over the past month).
Another important factor for prices is the seasonal approach of the Christmas and New Year holidays, especially in the main cocoa consuming regions - the US and Europe.
Cocoa prices on world markets are again returning above $ 10,000 per ton, while crypto fanatics in their manic persistence to get the last unmined bitcoin are ready to burn the planet Earth to hell and only deepen the food and environmental crisis striding across the planet.
The main graph represents a comparison across BTC and Cocoa prices over past several months.
So, what would you like to choose amid of recent rally in both assets - sweet cocoa or binary digits inside your computer?
Or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s talk about it!
Send your thoughts and questions into comment box below to discuss about Cocoa Futures Commodities Trading!
EURGBP RETRACESFUNDAMENTAL VIEW
On Monday, December 16, 2024, Eurozone data showed mixed results. French manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations, recording 41.9 compared to a forecast of 43.2, while service PMI improved to 48.2, surpassing the 46.9 forecast. Similarly, Germany reported manufacturing PMI at 42.1 against an expected 43.1, while service PMI outperformed, coming in at 51.4 compared to 49.5.
While In the UK, PMI data also reflected mixed outcomes. Manufacturing PMI registered 47.3, below the 48.4 forecast, while service PMI came in stronger at 51.4, beating the 50.9 forecast. As a result, EUR/GBP retraced during the European session, currently down 0.27% daily and weekly and 0.04% monthly.
Looking ahead of the week, key UK data releases include:
• Tuesday, December 17th 11:00 AM GMT+4: Claimant Count Change (forecast: 28.2k).
• Wednesday, December 18th 11:00 AM GMT+4: CPI y/y (expected increase of 0.3%).
• Thursday, December 19th: Interest rate decision (forecast: maintained at 4.75%).
• Friday, December 20th: Retail sales m/m.
These releases could significantly impact market movements
TECHNICAL VIEW:
EUR/GBP was in a broader downtrend but recently broke above the red trendline following last week’s impulsive move. The pair is currently retracing and moving toward the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8286, which aligns with the broken trendline providing a strong confluence zone. If this level is cleared, the next potential targets are the 50% Fib level at 0.8274, followed by the 61.8% level at 0.8263. Conversely, the pair could aim the previous peak at 0.8327 and possibly 0.8355. More so, price is currently trading above EMA 50. Breakout of these zones isn’t ruled out.
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Stock Price Soars Nearly 20%Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Stock Price Soars Nearly 20%
The chart shows that at the end of last week, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) stock price surged nearly 20%, breaking the psychological barrier of $200 per share and pushing the company’s market capitalisation to $1 trillion.
Last week, the company released its quarterly earnings report. The actual figures were close to analysts' forecasts — earnings per share of $1.42 vs $1.39 expected and fourth-quarter revenue of $14.05 billion vs $14.07 billion expected. However, the extraordinary rise in stock price was driven by a strong market reaction to the company's optimistic forecast, which is based on robust sales of chips designed for artificial intelligence (AI) applications.
Media reports highlight that the company’s revenue growth from the AI boom reached 220% year-over-year, and the total AI chip market could reach approximately $90 billion by 2027.
Technical analysis of the AVGO chart indicates the formation of a significant bullish gap:
→ In 2024, the price formed an ascending channel (shown in blue). Now it is near its upper boundary.
→ By measuring the width of the range between $139 and $185 to set a target for price movement following its bullish breakout, the level of $233 is obtained.
If the bullish momentum continues, the AVGO stock price could rise above the upper boundary of the ascending channel (as it did in mid-June), potentially reaching the specified target. Following this sharp increase, the price might correct, possibly moving toward the area of the bullish gap.
According to TipRanks, the average price target for AVGO shares is $229. However, given the information on anticipated future earnings released last Friday, these forecasts may be revised upwards.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025
The year 2024 has been a transformative period in the global financial markets, characterised by a mix of challenges and opportunities. Inflation battles, monetary policy shifts, economic uncertainties, and surprising bouts of optimism dominated the landscape. These forces created a volatile yet dynamic environment where some markets flourished while others struggled under significant pressure.
From central bank interventions to geopolitical developments and technological advancements, every corner of the financial world experienced notable activity. In this article, we will take a detailed look at the major trends and events shaping the global economy in 2024 and provide insights into what lies ahead in 2025.
Inflation and Interest Rates: A Balancing Act
In 2024, inflation showed signs of moderation globally. In the United States, it stabilised around 2.7%, marking a notable shift that bolstered market confidence and set a cautiously optimistic tone for the broader economy.
Throughout the year, rate cuts dominated monetary policy discussions. Following the unprecedented rate hikes implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, major central banks began scaling back rates. However, they had to walk a tightrope between a complex landscape of lower but still stubborn inflation and resilient labour markets and the necessity for monetary easing. The magnitude and pace of these cuts varied significantly, reflecting differences in economic conditions across regions and creating complex relationships in the forex market.
Analysts widely anticipate that policymakers will adopt a more measured approach to easing monetary policy as 2025 unfolds. Most developed market central banks, excluding Japan, are expected to reduce interest rates to neutral levels by the year's end. However, if economic conditions deteriorate more than anticipated, there is potential for central banks to push rates below neutral to support growth.
The Fed, in particular, faces a delicate balancing act, as it must carefully navigate potential policy developments—such as trade tariffs—that may not ultimately materialise. At the same time, any resurgence in inflationary pressures could prompt a shift toward a more restrictive rate trajectory in 2025 and beyond, further complicating the policy landscape.
Forex Market: A Year of Divergence
Currency markets in 2024 were shaped by a combination of monetary policy shifts, economic recovery efforts, and political developments. The US dollar experienced a rollercoaster year, initially depreciating against major currencies as markets anticipated the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it rebounded toward the end of the year, influenced by post-election optimism and expectations of protectionist trade policies under the Trump administration.
The British pound demonstrated resilience throughout 2024, supported by the Bank of England’s patient and measured approach to monetary policy. Despite potential rate cuts, the pound maintained its strength, reflecting confidence in the UK’s economic fundamentals. In contrast, the euro faced significant headwinds. The ECB’s aggressive easing measures widened interest rate differentials with the pound and the dollar, weakening the euro. By the end of the year, trade uncertainty stemming from potential US tariffs weighed heavily on the euro, given the Eurozone’s dependence on global trade.
The Japanese yen experienced mixed fortunes, bolstered by the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, the highest level since 2008. This move provided much-needed support for the yen, although concerns about potential US trade policies created downside risks. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars saw fluctuations driven by interest rate differentials, global trade dynamics and their respective economies' ties to the United States and China.
Analysts caution that President Trump’s tariff policies could intensify the overvaluation of the US dollar in 2025, potentially heightening the risk of global financial instability. The prospect of trade restrictions may add complexity to an already volatile economic landscape.
Commodity Markets: Precious Metals Shine, Oil Struggles
Commodity markets have seen a resurgence in investor interest. According to data from WisdomTree and Bloomberg, the proportion of investors allocating resources to commodities rose to 79% in 2024, compared to 71% in 2023—an expected rebound after a challenging year for commodities in 2023.
Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, emerged as top performers. As of time of the writing on 11th December, gold prices surged by over 30%, while silver outpaced gold with a 35% gain. Several factors drove these impressive performances, including geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, and strong demand from emerging market central banks. According to analysts, these factors should continue supporting precious metals in 2025.
Natural gas prices also experienced significant growth, rising 30% to 50% across major markets in Asia, Europe, and North America. Colder weather forecasts have fueled demand, particularly in Europe and Asia. Analysts suggest that this bullish sentiment in gas markets is likely to persist through the winter, with prices unlikely to see significant declines until well into 2025. However, high gas prices are expected to increase power costs globally, straining fragile economic growth in key regions such as China and Europe while rekindling inflationary concerns.
Oil, however, faced a challenging year despite geopolitical crises and production cuts. One of the reasons is a weak demand, particularly from China. In the United States, gasoline inventories exceeded long-term seasonal levels. According to analysts, the growing transition to electric vehicles in developed markets represents a long-term challenge for oil demand. Although some analysts anticipate a recovery in 2025 as OPEC+ production cuts take effect and geopolitical risks persist.
Stock Markets: Tech Leads the Charge
The US stock market delivered robust performances in 2024, reaching new record highs, with the technology sector at the forefront. Innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) played a pivotal role in driving growth, with major companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon reporting strong earnings. This momentum boosted broader indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recording gains of 28.57% and 27.4%, respectively, as of 10th December.
The broader market also benefited from declining inflation, interest rate cuts, and better-than-expected corporate earnings. These factors may contribute to the stock market growth in 2025. However, stretched valuations temper some of the optimism, and concerns about potential trade tariffs add a layer of uncertainty.
Looking Ahead to 2025: Key Market Drivers
As we look ahead to 2025, several critical factors are poised to influence the direction of financial markets.
Central Bank Policies
Central banks will remain pivotal in shaping financial markets in 2025. The balance between maintaining growth and addressing inflationary pressures will be a key theme for central banks throughout the year, influencing the strength of equity markets. Interest rate differentials will play a significant role in determining currency movements.
Global Economic Recovery
The global economy is expected to continue rebounding from pandemic effects. GDP growth, employment trends, and trade balances will be key factors influencing financial markets.
Trade War Uncertainty
Potential trade tariffs pose a significant risk. The scope, products, and geographies targeted will determine the impact on global GDP, inflation, and interest rates. Any escalation in trade tensions could disrupt markets and strain economic recovery.
Artificial Intelligence and Innovation
AI and emerging technologies may drive productivity gains, offering an upside to global growth. By boosting efficiency and reducing costs, AI could also exert disinflationary pressure, influencing economic dynamics in the long term.
Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitical risks, including trade disputes and political conflicts, remain unpredictable but could disrupt markets.
Final Thoughts: Embracing Opportunities Amid Volatility
The year 2024 brought its share of challenges and opportunities, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of global markets. From navigating geopolitical uncertainties and evolving monetary policies to embracing the transformative potential of technologies like artificial intelligence, market participants faced a dynamic landscape.
Looking ahead to 2025, the horizon offers new opportunities. Continued advancements in innovation, shifts in economic policies, and the resolution of key global tensions could set the stage for exciting market fluctuations. Use the new year to test your skills and look for new opportunities!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles.
"Crypto is an expression of Macro."
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation.
Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets.
In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management:
1. Quantitative Easing (QE)
The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention:
- Prevented a complete economic collapse
- Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets
- Kept interest rates artificially low
- Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession
2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy
Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management:
- Coordinated interest rate decisions
- Shared information about economic interventions
- Created global liquidity pools
3. Cyclical Liquidity Management
The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through:
- Periodic liquidity injections
- Strategic interest rate adjustments
- Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one
The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of:
- 2-3 years of expansionary policy
- Followed by a contraction or normalization period
This cycle typically involves:
- Expanding money supply
- Lowering interest rates
- Supporting asset prices
- Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating
The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions.
This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
GOLD → Correction before a possible fall FX:XAUUSD is moving into the correction phase amid last week's economic data. The price is returning to the channel and in general confirms the bearish character on the market.
Markets are ready for a 0.25% interest rate cut, but traders are waiting for hints on the Fed's stance: whether the Fed will continue to cut rates, go into a wait-and-see mode, or hint at a rate hike based on last week's economic data. Traders are eagerly awaiting the Fed's decision, which will be announced on December 18. The gold price is also receiving support from renewed tensions in the Middle East and political turmoil in South Korea.
Technically, after the false breakout of 2721 a deep correction is forging, which generally develops into a localized downtrend. The price is approaching the panic zone 2615-2600. At the Asian session a correction is forming and it is worth paying attention to the key resistance zones
Resistance levels: 2667, 2675, 2685
Support levels: 2646, 2633
The price is heading towards the imbalance zone within the correction. A quick approach and retest of resistance could trigger a rebound. Traders may enter the phase of profit taking before strong news
Regards R. Linda!
#BITCOIN $BTC Key points this week!Here are the key points driving Bitcoin this week:
New All-Time Highs: Bitcoin has surged to new all-time highs, breaking above $105,000, which indicates strong bullish momentum. This surge is partly attributed to the market's response to the anticipation of a pro-crypto administration under President-elect Donald Trump.
Potential Bitcoin Reserve Asset Status: There's buzz around the possibility that the Trump administration might designate Bitcoin as a U.S. reserve asset, which could further solidify its value and acceptance. This news has been a significant driver for Bitcoin's price increase.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Market sentiment is being influenced by expectations of a third consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which generally favors risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Lower interest rates can lead to increased investment in cryptocurrencies as investors seek higher returns.
Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis: Bitcoin's market is showing signs of stability with a reduced Volatility Risk Premium (VRP), suggesting that future uncertainties might be less of a concern, leading to a potentially calmer market environment. Technical analysis also indicates positive trends, with Bitcoin closing the week inside key Gann arcs, suggesting potential for further upward movement if these levels are broken.
Economic Events: Key U.S. economic events this week, including PMI, Fed rates, GDP, and inflation data, are expected to influence Bitcoin's volatility and investor sentiment. These events could either reinforce the bullish trend or introduce some corrections depending on the outcomes.
ETF Inflows and Whale Activity: Positive ETF inflows and an increase in whale buys are contributing to the bullish sentiment. There's no significant sell pressure around the $100,000 mark, supporting the upward movement in price.
These points collectively suggest a week where Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory, driven by both macroeconomic policies and market dynamics. However, the crypto market is notoriously volatile, and these factors could also lead to rapid changes in market sentiment.
