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Fundamental Analysis

12/3/24 - $qqq - quick comment on "risk"- by now it should be obvious that this isn't "normal" (hasn't been for over a decade, but esp in the last year). M2 turned positive and risk assets followed especially as labor mkt data started "allowing" fed to cut - but remember, inflation gauges are heading higher. oil probably only has one direction (energy is a big driver) and consumers are ape'ing on basically everything w/ credit card debt exploding higher. amazing! - what concerns me, though is this next fed mtg... 1/ any "cuts" won't really move the needle in terms of truly looser monetary policy 2/ mkts are already at nosebleed highs (let's just use PE e.g. 2-3% vs. 10Y rates) 3/ any indication that the fed is going to not keep with the current programming (b/c let's face it - they're certainly - well who really knows but the dark forces from h3ll - going to accelerate the print bc it's not necessary, look at the mkts!)... which means the only possible direction is possibly more restrictive 4/ now we ARE in year end. there are technically no -ve catalysts on the horizon so to speak, and the mkts need a reason to go down, not up. so the direction holds. i'm happy holding a big allo of BTC, NXT, TSM, META and NVDA and some select other stuff in that order. it's working well and i genuinely think the valuations for these are (ironically) decent 5/ but beware. that if the mkt starts to get the picture of what i'm spelling out above... it won't be next week where you get a pullback (i'm not calling for something extreme, but 5-10% will cause tears for a lot of leveraged low IQ types and zero them quickly)... but i'm prepared with a healthy cash balance, a bunch of shorts (today it's PLTR in size, SG which i've been monetizing a bit, NN, SMR also monetizing a bit and some B2B stuff that just got too expensive like TEAM which i actually like but i digress). just good to be aware of where we're at. try typing in "QQQ/M2" into trading view and look at monthly or 3M candles. note anything interesting? it's best to normalize by money supply one way or another. when and where did we last reach these levels ;) stay vigilant and don't drink too much. the party continues but it's good to remember the exit than be woken up with some unfortunate pictures of your PnL. could have, should have. V
NASDAQ:QQQ
by VROCKSTAR
12/18/24 - $uber - I'm irresponsibly long @$6112/18/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:UBER I'm irresponsibly long @$61 - won't rehash the thesis - but these guys will share the AV pie. the mkt is no doubt pair trading NASDAQ:TSLA v $uber. today that started to reverse even early in the session - looking at $uber/ NASDAQ:QQQ pair - the stock has clearly bottomed in my opinion - what matters here, however is the composition of how the market makers spool the index (which is targeted in a narrow range and IMO will finish higher from here into YE) - will we see some collateral damage, a follow on risk off day? anything's possible. but a lot of leverage was flushed today and quite frankly that's healthy. - so i'm irresponsibly long NYSE:UBER calls. $60 for jan 17 '25 ... and some dec 27 expires as well. will manage this v closely, but it's my highest conviction ST idea given the strength the stock showed today in the worst tape so far this year. b careful there. love u guys V
NYSE:UBERLong
by VROCKSTAR
2
$USINTR - Fed's Third Rate Cut (December/2024)ECONOMICS:USINTR (December/2024) source: Federal Reserve -The Fed announced another 25bps cut to the federal funds rate in December 2024, marking the third consecutive reduction this year and bringing borrowing costs to the 4.25%-4.5% range, in line with expectations. The so-called dot plot indicates that policymakers now anticipate just two rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter. The Fed also revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for 2024 (2.5% vs to 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs 2%). The same trend applies to core PCE inflation, with forecasts raised for 2024 (2.8% vs 2.6%), 2025 (2.5% vs 2.2%), and 2026 (2.2% vs 2%). On the other hand, unemployment is seen lower this year (4.2% vs 4.4%) and in 2025 (4.3% vs 4.4%) while the forecast was kept at 4.3% for 2026.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
24/12/13 Tesla 427 USD - volcano erupted Tesla actually as an high flyer. Since end of october, the value has been doubled. Are there any fundamental reasons, to substantiate such a move? 100% for sure not. Why? Musk will launch next year another cheaper car. This may help to keep the piece of the market, but not to increase very higher sales in total. 2024 tesla sold end of Q3 not more cars than in 2023. last quarter .- we will see. But chinese Market is blocked by there own. See, in what a velocity china creates new companies in EV. They do it in the same way how they did it with PV Moduls. Musk also will push the robotaxi. But he has neither a requires functionality nor a permission for such vehicles. And dont forget, amazon and google have already such cars driving. Google with her daughter with 50000 bookings per week, which will generate a lot of datas, Tesla does not have. And lot of important Tesla people in this technology leaved the company this year. But overall: the US taxi market revenue per year is roundabout 22 B USD. Maybe 10% net earnings. Even with driverless vehicles the net earings are 30%, maximal net earnings for Tesla will be in 3-4 years maybe 70 Million USD, 10 years maybe 800 Million USD (USA, europe). Discount it with 4% and you will see … If this robotaxi are good enough, not to buy an own car… we will see. Every man liked his own car. And if not, this business model will cannibalize the own business. So - Tesla is fundamental overrated. Technical side see chart. Maybe actually prices are driven by short covering (remember Volkswagen and Mr. Merckly was driven in suicide). So, prices now on upper bollinger boundary. Prices extrem above SMA 40 Weeks, which was a sign for sharp correction. And - I guess, some Short Sellers are coming onto to the floor. But - richest man in the world is naturally at any time aible, to buy for private, for several billions. That means: Hedge funds as short sellers must have min. 10-20 B USD to fight or covered. Dan 13.12.24
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Flyerdan
1
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY (November/2024) source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK edged up for a second month to 2.6% in November 2024 from 2.3% in October, matching forecasts. It is the highest inflation rate in eight months, with prices rising at a faster pace for recreation and culture (3.6% vs 3% in October), mostly admission fees to live music events and theaters and computer games; housing and utilities (3% vs 2.9%), particularly actual rents for housing; and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2% vs 1.9%). In addition, transport prices fell much less (-0.9% vs -1.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars were partially offset by a downward effect from air fares. Meanwhile, services inflation was steady at 5%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.1%, less than 0.6% in October and matching forecasts. The core CPI rose 3.5% on the year from 3.3% in October but below forecasts of 3.6%. On the month, core prices stalled.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD Downward Pressure: What’s Fueling the USD Rally?The EUR/USD currency pair kicked off the week on a negative trend, dipping below the 1.0500 threshold and reaching around 1.0460 on Monday. As I write this piece, the pair appears to be stabilizing, trading close to 1.05250 in early Tuesday’s London session. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders have been increasing their long positions, while non-commercial players maintain a bearish stance. This divergence hints at the potential for further downward movement in the pair. A cautious market sentiment has fortified the US Dollar (USD) against its competitors, putting additional pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Compounding these challenges for the Euro are the political uncertainties in France. Reports indicate that the government is on the verge of collapse after both far-right and left-wing factions introduced no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, as stated by Reuters. Moreover, the differing monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to impede any upward momentum for the euro. Attention today is directed toward the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. An increase in job openings could further strengthen the USD and the DXY index against other currencies. Currently, we are observing market movements without planning to initiate any trades, wanting to assess potential price levels before considering future positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
4
AUD/USD Declines as RBA Holds Interest Rates SteadyThe AUD/USD pair is experiencing continued downward pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% during its final policy meeting of the year. RBA Governor Michele Bullock articulated this choice at a press conference, highlighting that the interest rate has remained at this 12-year high for nine consecutive meetings in December. Currently, the price is trading around 0.6395, reflecting this bearish trend. Market participants are keenly awaiting key economic data, including the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement and Thursday's unemployment claims, along with the Core Producer Price Index (PPI). These reports are anticipated to introduce considerable volatility into the market. Should favorable economic indicators emerge for the USD, the AUD/USD could potentially approach the next demand zone. At this time, we are not looking to initiate any positions but rather to monitor the price movement and await a possible reach toward that demand area. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Stagnates Near 1.0500: All Eyes on the Federal ReserveThe EUR/USD currency pair is currently consolidating within a narrow range, lingering around the 1.0500 to 1.0490 levels. As investors turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, market sentiment remains cautious yet focused. Today's scheduled announcement regarding the US Federal Funds Rate, along with the subsequent FOMC statement and press conference, could further bolster the US dollar. Expectations are leaning toward a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates by the Fed. However, it is anticipated that the central bank will accompany this cut with somewhat hawkish commentary regarding future policy guidance. Such remarks could indicate that despite the rate cut, the Fed remains vigilant about economic conditions and inflation pressures. This meeting represents a crucial moment for market participants, as it could usher in significant volatility, particularly ahead of tomorrow's Unemployment Claims report. As traders assess these economic indicators, they are likely to position themselves accordingly, especially if the data reflects a robust labor market. Given the current landscape, our outlook for the euro remains bearish as the dollar shows a tendency to strengthen. The pressure on the eurozone continues to mount amid various economic challenges, making it difficult for the euro to gain traction against its US counterpart. As we navigate this period of uncertainty, traders are advised to keep a close eye on the developments from the Federal Reserve, as well as any shifting dynamics in the broader economic context. The next few sessions could prove pivotal for both currencies, influencing the short-term trading strategies of many market participants. We expect the dollar to maintain its upward trajectory, while the euro may struggle to hold its ground. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD: Euro Under Pressure, the Impact of Future Rate cutsThe EUR/USD currency pair began its London session with a promising bullish impulse. Initially, it appeared that the euro was gaining traction as investors showed renewed interest. However, this optimism was short-lived as the European Central Bank (ECB) officials signaled support for further interest rate cuts, leading to a swift reversal of intraday gains. Market analysts expect the ECB to implement a substantial interest rate reduction of around 100 basis points in the upcoming year. This prospective easing of monetary policy has raised concerns among investors, prompting them to reevaluate their positions in the euro. As the sentiment shifts, market participants are paying close attention to the ECB’s next moves and how they will impact the euro's valuation. In addition to developments from the ECB, investors are also focused on the Federal Reserve's dot plot, which will provide insights into future interest rate projections in the United States. As the Fed navigates its monetary policy landscape, any signals of tightening could play a significant role in influencing global currency movements, particularly with the euro in the spotlight. The Current State of the Euro As I write this article, the euro has surrendered its intraday gains and is trading around the critical psychological level of 1.0490. This decline reflects strong bearish pressure currently weighing on the currency. From a technical analysis perspective, the trends suggest a sustained downturn, raising questions about the euro's ability to regain its footing. Looking back over the past decade, seasonality data reveals a generally bullish trend for the euro during this period. However, the recent political climate, particularly the election of President Trump, has fortified the DXY’s (U.S. Dollar Index) upward momentum. This unexpected resilience of the dollar adds another layer of complexity to the euro’s outlook. With a target price established at 1.0350 for the euro, market analysts see potential for further declines. If the euro approaches this level, it could prompt a reaction from traders. However, at this juncture, the sentiment indicates little chance for a significant reversal in direction. The coming weeks will be critical as both European and U.S. economic data continue to unfold, shaping the trajectory of the EUR/USD pair. In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair started on a bullish note, the recent signals from the ECB and the prevailing market sentiment point toward a challenging environment for the euro in the short term. Traders will need to navigate carefully as they weigh the implications of interest rate cuts and geopolitical developments in their strategies. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
4
NASDAQ Before FOMC - New Chance For Bears?The NASDAQ has staged an impressive rally in recent weeks. We had pointed out bearish divergences in the volume, which the market ignored with a brilliant upward movement - this was not unexpected, as we remember from the aforementioned analysis. Nevertheless, these bearish divergences are still present and are now also clearly visible in the long-term cumulative volume delta chart. With tomorrow's FED meeting and signs of weakness, the chances of a short-term correction to one of the various open gaps are not bad.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ochlokrat
EUR/USD ANALYSISIn this analyze we are analyzing 1H time frame to identify that what will be the next move come occurs in EURUSD currency pair. I'm expecting that first price came down and touches our buying zone and than again move in upward direction. Let's wait when price enter into our zone and observed how will price react into our zone. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my analyze or prediction. #EURUSD 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Long
by TradeTacticsreal
1
New Zealand slides after Fed rate cut, NZ GDP nextThe New Zealand dollar has declined sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5685, down 1.2% on the day. The New Zealand dollar has been in freefall, plunging 11.6% since Oct. 1. New Zealand's economy is expected to contract in the third quarter by 0.4% q/q, after a 0.2% decline in Q2. If the economy  contracted for back-to-back quarters as expected, it would mean that the economy is in a technical recession.  Construction and manufacturing activity declined in the third quarter and a severe power crisis led to a decrease exports, all of which dampened GDP. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed rates by 50 basis points last month, lowering the cash rate to 4.25%. The central bank has trimmed rates by 125 bp since August but the economy is clearly in need of further cuts. Inflation is back within the target of 1% to 3% and we can expect another cut at  the next meeting in February barring a surprise jump in inflation. There wasn't much excitement around today's Federal Reserve meeting, as the market had priced in a quarter-point cut at close to 100%. This is exactly what happened, as the Fed cut rates for a third time this year. The Fed signaled that it expected to cut rates only two times in 2025, lower than previous projections of four rate cuts. With the US economy in solid shape and the downswing in inflation stalled, the Fed can afford to take its time before the next rate cut. The market will hear from Fed Chair Powell shortly. Powell could reiterate that the Fed plans to cut rates "gradually", which means modest cuts of 25 basis points. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5715. Next, there is support at 0.5665 There is resistance at 0.5801 and 0.5849
by OANDA
Potentially a good time to switch from BTC to ETH.Hi all, let's look at the 1W ETH to BTC chart, in this situation we can see how the price is moving below the downtrend lines, in this situation we have several such lines which also indicate strong resistance places for the price in a given move. Currently, a correction is visible, but as the trend reverses, resistance levels are visible at the following levels: T1 = 0.04504btc around 21.5% T2 = 0.05346btc around 44% T3 = 0.06004btc around 61.5% T4 = 0.06652btc around 79% T5 = 0.07623btc around 105% Now let's move on to stop-loss in case the market continues to fall: SL1 = 0.03166btc SL2 = 0.02213btc SL3 = 0.01612btc On the RSI indicator, we have a visible movement at the lower end of the range, which could potentially indicate an upcoming increase, here it is worth watching the trend line under which we are moving, because the moment of approaching it gives a renewed price recovery.
by cryptodailyuk