Textron: Why Textron Remains Bullish and Its Next Potential MoveAverage performance in the 3 months following the first interest rate cut of the Federal Reserve easing cycle: +15.2%.
Textron (NYSE:TXT) is a multi-sector company that leverages its global network of aerospace, defense, industrial, and financial companies to provide various solutions and services to its customers.
The company operates through six segments: Textron Aviation, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, Finance, and Textron eAviation.
Its stock trend has been uncertain for several months, ranging between $80 and $95. However, fair value forecasts predict that the stock will exceed $100 and reach $104.38 (about 20% higher than the current price), which would be a historic record !!!
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Fundamental-analysis
Buy NZD/JPY Bullish ChannelThe NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 90.80, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 91.49
2nd Support – 91.92
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 90.35. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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Buy XAUUSD (Gold) Bullish FlagThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2660, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2681
2nd Support – 2696
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2648. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 26, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) remains depreciated against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) July policy meeting on Thursday. The yen faces challenges as traders expect the BoJ to ponder before further rate hikes.
The minutes of the BoJ's monetary policy meeting expressed a general view among members on the importance of remaining vigilant on the risks of inflation exceeding targets. Several members indicated that raising rates to 0.25 percent would be an appropriate way to adjust the level of monetary support. Some others suggested that a moderate adjustment in monetary support would also be appropriate.
Pressure on the U.S. dollar is being exerted by the increased likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) at upcoming meetings. According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets estimate the probability that the Fed will cut rates by 75 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25% by the end of this year at around 50%.
Traders' attention is now focused on the release of final annualized U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter (Q2), due later in the day. On Friday, inflation data will be released in Tokyo, which could provide further insight into the economic outlook and possible monetary policy moves by the Bank of Japan.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 25, 2024 GBPUSDGBPUSD:
GBP/USD continued to rally the Pound for the second day in a row, breaking above 1.3400 and hitting new 30-month highs after the US Dollar weakened significantly on Tuesday.
Wednesday will be quiet for the Pound in terms of data, although traders will be keeping an eye on statements from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Green. MPC member Green will be speaking at the North East England Chamber of Commerce.
The U.S. portion of Wednesday's economic data list is also underweight for the midweek market session. August's monthly new home sales figure is unlikely to have much momentum one way or the other, followed by a speech from Federal Reserve Board of Governors (Fed) member Adrian Kugler, who will speak at Harvard's Kennedy School in Cambridge.
Consumer confidence deteriorated across the board on Tuesday, with consumer expectations for 12-month inflation accelerating to 5.2 per cent. Consumers also reported a general weakening in their six-month outlook for household financial conditions, and consumer assessments of overall business conditions turned negative.
The pullback in consumer confidence results triggered renewed trading in the rates markets in favour of a subsequent sharp rate cut in November. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, rates markets are pricing in nearly 60% probability of a second 50 bps rate cut. 7 November and only a 40% probability of a more reasonable subsequent 25bp rate cut. Earlier in the week, traders were estimating roughly equal odds of a 50bp or 25bp rate cut.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level
EURO FUTURES, EURUSD FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY OUTLOOK What we have here is the fundamental outlook from the Net-positions of Big Fund Managers.
Fund Managers are normally trend following.
Every time there is a negative or positive divergence between the price chart and the Fund Managers Net positions, Price usually follows next forming the trend.
Fund Managers net positions moves the market because they have big reportable positions to the CFTC.
We are currently approaching a Daily and Weekly Supply zone which could be the cause of price falling down in the next few weeks.
Also, Euro is negatively correlated to DXY, wherein we are currently in the oversold reading.
***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
Alpha Group - What next post-earnings and CEO sucession plan?My take on Alpha Group:
Alpha Group LSE:ALPH leads, in my view, as the UK's best FXRM firm, and institutional lending provider. What most lenders don't do is take a mixed approach - both expertise and technology when developing and implementing their services. From a macro perspective, Alpha Group provide stronger growth prospects than peers, as well as higher margins. They are continuously making large investments into their infrastructure, expanding their already strong platform. Analysts ests. momentum continues to be strong, due to the cheap valuation (despite the inflated NII).
The acquisition of Cobase had provided an additional vector of growth for the company, and will continue to do so into the future. Presently, and historically, Alpha Group have always displayed a super solid balance sheet, indicating mgmt. are in control. Buybacks are continuous, with £20m now completed in this year alone, leaving them with a huge cash position, over £180m.
And, as we all know by know, interest rates are dropping globally! Slowly, but surely, we will come down to a more modest cost of borrowing, and Alpha Group are a major beneficiary of this.
4th September 2024 - 1H24 results
• Total income up 19% yoy to £107m. Revenues at £64m, a 16% yoy rise. 1H underlying EBITDA @ £25.3m (39.4% margin), surpassing PH’s estimate of £23.3m.
• Additionally, an increase in net client additions and revenue per client. Corporate FXRM client base grew by 9% yoy, and institutional FX client numbers rose 11% yoy.
• Cash up again! Now sitting on £180m at the end of the first half. Buyback on track, now with £20m completed.
• As at 04/09, trading at approx. 6x ‘25e EV/EBITDA and an 8% FCF yield, still suggesting good valuation for buying.
10th September 2024 - CEO Transition & Succession
- Alpha Group announced today that Morgan Tillbrook, CEO, has decided to step down from his duties at the company.
- He will continue his role up until the end of the calendar year, where he will then be succeeded by Clive Khan.
- Clive is currently Chairman at Alpha Group and is also the CEO of takepayments. takepayments was recently acquired by Global Payments NYSE:GPN , which I believe provides perfect timing for Clive to step down as CEO and step up for the role at Alpha Group.
- With over 30 years in the FX and payments industry, there's no real better option than Clive, as his philosophy is almost identical to Morgan's.
- He transformed takepayments from a failing bill payments business into one of the leading card acceptance businesses in the UK. As for Morgan, he too has a history of angel investing.
- I anticipated a potential move for Morgan, as his long history of angel investing gave me a "heads up" to his absence.
- At the open on the 10th, the markets felt disappointed and surprised, causing the stock to drop c.10% on the day.
- However, Morgan made absolutely clear in his formal announcement that he will be leaving the business primed for further exponential growth and equipped with a robust business model. He emphasised that Alpha Group cannot be left in better hands than Clive, and I believe there is no reason to expect a rough transition in the step-up for him.
Buy USDJPY Bullish ChannelThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Descending Triangle pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 143.77, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 145.38
2nd Support – 146.08
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 143.00. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
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Sell GBPCHF Channel BreakoutThe GBP/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1304, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1220
2nd Support – 1.1188
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1350. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
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Sell EUR/AUD Bearish ChannelThe EUR/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.6370, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.6300
2nd Support – 1.6260
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.6400. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
It's Meme's Galore......But is PEPE different?DOGE, SHIB, FLOKI, BONK, DOGWIFHAT, and whatever else you can come up with, but it down and there might be a coin created with that name. The meme scene has exploded, with only a few pushing into the billion market arena (FLOKI and BONK is in there). PEPE has exploded to pushing to the #28 coin, boasting a market cap around $3.4 billion. Aside from it being a famous character from around 24 years ago and riding that wave, is there anything else going on for this coin. Well one noticeable thing I researched was how it came on the scene. There wasn't any money raising or push to get in the coin. It was just there and all of a sudden started popping up. PEPE also doesn't charge any taxes. Its roadmap is simple to understand. And it has been gaining a decent amount of traction (pushing into more and more brokerages). But on its website, it says that there is no utility in the token and that it is for entertainment purposes. But look what happened to DOGE. The DOGE founder stated that it's just a meme coin, yet the coin shot up to around 0.72 in 2021. Could PEPE do this, maybe.
Looking at the charts (weekly), there is a descending channel showing which, if correct, could eventually release that kinetic energy to spring price up to its all time high, and maybe higher. But there is some conflicting signals, such as the possible ascending head and shoulders pattern, and price trading in a possible range/Darvus Box at 0.0000050-0.000009 (D1). If price does break out of D1, it still has to fight not completing the second shoulder of the H/S pattern. If it does climb higher, there is still the creation of either a double top or bottom, unless price is able to go parabolic in the next couple months.
There is a decent sized community like some of the other meme coins, and potentially a lot of people are HODL to see if there is 10x or more gains. Yet I see this as a play that could have some money put into it to see what happens with this token. This coin has gained a lot of ground and traction, so I am in it to see what happens. In the overall Crypto market, I think it will be going up, so with the main, alt, and meme, let's see what happens. I think PEPE will have another surge, potentially towards the end of November or in the the middle of the 1st Quarter of next year.
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 23, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground for the third consecutive session on Monday in trading diluted by holidays. This downward movement could be influenced by growing concerns that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is in no hurry to raise interest rates.
The BoJ kept its interest rate target range of 0.15-0.25% at its meeting on Friday. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the central bank “will continue to adjust the level of monetary policy easing as necessary to achieve our economic and inflation targets.” Ueda recognized that while Japan's economy is showing a moderate recovery, there are still signs of weakness.
The US dollar (USD) continues to rise as Treasury yields recover their losses. However, the dollar could face challenges due to growing expectations of additional rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 50 percent chance of a 50 basis point rate cut to a range of 4.0-4.25 percent by the end of this year.
Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 144.000, if the level is fixed below consider Sell position, if the level rebounds consider Buy position.
Up or Down? Where are we going?I'm bullish on playing long. It's on an upward trend and has touched the line twice. I need three or more touches to give a bull signal. I predict it will retract more than the pump. Honestly, this stock could bloom or boom to the floor. From a fundamental standpoint, the company holds a bright future with the AI and tech boom. I hope they pull through with the tech boom and that the tech boom will use NVIDIA as a powerhouse asset.
Costco Wholesale deep diving into the fundamentals Sale Post ER?NASDAQ:COST is an interesting company that benefits from inflationary conditions where consumers are looking for cheaper products or more product for their money. Costco is aided from its membership business model. The Stock itself rallied 38.35% YTD "Year to Date" and 60.79% in the last Year "365 Days" I personally like the stock but think due to the valuation like the PE Ratio that is high to me personally, and the forward PE Ratio doesn't seem like the best price to me as a new investor with a short term interest, I would not personally add this stock to my portfolio until I see the stock pull-back in Share Price, Price to sales seems decent but I am hoping for a share price pullback which may never happen. I Put an idea/Chart that I Would not be too surprised if it played out that way but it could also be inaccurate. Only Time Will Tell! I am not initiating Buy, Sell, Or Hold Opinions and you should take No action suggestion
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Balance Sheet:
Cash: US$11.50b
Debt: US$6.91b
Total Liabilities: US$46.14b
Total Assets: US$67.91b
Debt to Equity Ratio: 31.7%
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Technicals:
RSI: 59
Short Interest: 1.66%
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Valuation:
PE Ratio: 56.1x
Forward PE Ratio: 52.3x
Price to Sales: 1.6x
Price to book Ratio: 18.5x
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Management Ratios
Return On Equity: 32.9%
Return On Capital Employed: 27.7%
Return On Assets: 9.9%
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Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and in no way am I signaling a sell, buy, or hold opinion on this stock (Costco Wholesale) I am just giving my personal opinion as a hobby trader, I have no certifications and I am not a financial analyst or a financial advisor, I also may be wrong about how I feel about the stock. I want you to do plenty more research on this and the stocks you are interested in because the stock market always holds a lot of risk that may pose different risks and overall be different for each investor and trader. Please do not make opinions based on this idea or any idea. Please be careful! this post is only for conversation.
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Idea:
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Source: SimplyWallSt for the Balance Sheet Numbers & Balance Sheet information.
Is PayPal's Rise Unstoppable?PayPal, once a mere online payment facilitator, has evolved into a financial powerhouse. Its strategic partnerships, innovative ventures, and consistent financial performance have solidified its position as a dominant player in the digital payments landscape.
The company’s recent investment in Chaos Labs, a blockchain risk management firm, underscores its commitment to staying ahead of the curve and embracing emerging technologies. This strategic move not only positions PayPal as a leader in the blockchain space but also highlights its ability to identify and capitalize on future trends.
Moreover, PayPal’s partnership with Amazon has significantly expanded its reach and boosted investor confidence. By integrating PayPal as a checkout option for third-party merchants, Amazon has effectively made PayPal a more accessible and convenient payment method for millions of consumers. This strategic alliance has not only driven revenue growth but has also fueled PayPal's stock price.
Beyond Amazon, PayPal's collaborations with Shopify, Adyen, and other industry leaders have further diversified its business model. These partnerships have allowed PayPal to tap into new markets, reach a wider customer base, and enhance its value proposition.
The increasing confidence of institutional investors in PayPal is a testament to its strong fundamentals and growth potential. As investors continue to seek out stable and profitable investments, PayPal’s consistent performance and strategic initiatives make it an attractive option.
In conclusion, PayPal's journey from a simple online payment platform to a financial powerhouse is a testament to its ability to adapt, innovate, and deliver value to its stakeholders. With its strategic partnerships, blockchain ventures, and solid financial performance, PayPal is well-positioned to continue its upward trajectory and remain a dominant force in the digital payments industry.
The Fundamentals Titan that is Arista NetworksNYSE:ANET is a popular tech stock with strong fundamentals while valuation methods such as PE Ratio, Price to sales, etc, might be signaling that it is overvalued, the forecast projections remain strong. Arista Networks has no debt and more then 3 Assets per Liability, With more then double the Cash to cover Liabilities also growing Equity rapidly this company. The Balance sheet is a definite strength for this company!
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Balance Sheet:
Cash: US$6.27b
Debt: US$0
Equity: US$8.43b
Total Liabilities: US$3.19b
Total Assets: US$11.62b
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Valuation:
PE Ratio: 46.63x
Forward PE Ratio: 43.7x
Price To Sales: 18x
Price To Books: 13.5x
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Idea:
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Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and in no way am I signaling a sell, buy, or hold opinion on this stock (Arista Networks) I am just giving my personal opinion as a hobby trader, I have no certifications and I am not a financial analyst, I also may be wrong about how I feel about the stock. I want you to do plenty more research on this and the stocks you are interested in because the stock market always holds a lot of risk that may pose different risks and overall be different for each investor and trader. Please do not make opinions based on this idea or any idea. Please be careful! this post is only for conversation.
Sell EURUSD Channel Breakout (FOMC) The EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1117, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1076
2nd Support – 1.1051
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1152. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Sell GBPCHF UK CPIThe GBP/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1136, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1080
2nd Support – 1.1040
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1190. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Today’s (17-9-2024) US Retail sales data Affects Gold Prices why we sell Gold today ???
well many will tell answer is simple that gold is overbought and everyone is selling.....
But That's not a whole case.
- Yes gold was overbought and running on High uptrend.
- From our past Encounter with gold suggested Small Changes in US Retail sales data will Endup in big change in gold,and it happeded as per our prophecy.
- Buyer around the world are running heavy profit they has to close position and book profit will force price to come downside.
So this is it...
Stay tune for more update from us will come back with another Facinating trade..
Keep following keep trading and Remember Buy high Sell low....
XAUUSD | Bearish DivergenceCurrently, XAUUSD (Gold) is in an uptrend, making new higher highs and higher lows while moving within a parallel channel, supported by its trendline. Additionally, fundamental factors are pushing gold to reach new highs.
However, on the 1-hour time frame, there is a hidden bearish divergence, suggesting a potential trend reversal into a downtrend. This indicates that we may soon see the formation of new lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL), and the price could move towards a high-demand zone.
Moreover, with high-impact USD news expected this week, we anticipate a potential retracement in price. After this pullback, we could expect an upward rally in gold.
In summary:
1: Uptrend: Gold is making higher highs and higher lows, moving within a parallel channel.
2: Fundamentals: Support the uptrend and push for new highs.
3: Hidden Bearish Divergence: On the 1-hour chart, indicating a potential shift to a downtrend.
4: High-Impact USD News: Expected to cause a retracement, followed by a potential upward rally.
Expectation: A short-term pullback, followed by a possible continuation of the uptrend.
These factors suggest short-term downside potential before a likely continuation of the uptrend.
Sell EURCHF Triangle BreakoutThe EUR/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 0.9395
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.9353
2nd Support – 0.9324
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.9412. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
AUDCHF / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS / FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ~ PROPFIRMThis is my analysis for audchf, the graph shows fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
This entry mentioned here is open with sell top in my propfirm account *Fundingpips* 100k.
Everything is clear, I didn't detail the fundamental analysis, I just put it as a final observation, as the fundamental analysis is done with a set of information and rate cuts.
Feel free to comment, this is just my entry, it doesn't mean I'm 100% right, sometimes the market isn't right.
The High Revenue Low Float Case Of Coca-Cola Consolidated NASDAQ:COKE recently seemed to have a double bottom form in Coca-Cola Consolidated Stock , Where a recovery seems possible after having a small pullback in share price. NASDAQ:COKE Recently a lot of debt was added onto the balance sheet due to the buyback programs initiated by the management like ("$1 billion share repurchase program for its common stock.") "(Aug 20, 2024)" The Valuation seems interesting at its 22.4x PE Ratio, and its Price to Sales 1.7x, and its 9.5x Price to book Ratio. It will for sure be interesting to see how the stock performs as time goes on!
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Balance Sheet:
Cash: US$1.90b
Debt: US$1.79b
Total Liabilities: US$4.46b
Total Assets: US$5.66b
Debt to Equity Ratio: 149.4%
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Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and in no way am I signaling a sell, buy, or hold opinion on this stock (Coca-Cola Consolidated) I am just giving my personal opinion as a hobby trader, I have no certifications and I am not a financial analyst, I also may be wrong about how I feel about the stock. I want you to do plenty more research on this and the stocks you are interested in because the stock market always holds a lot of risk that may be different for each investor and trader. Please do not make opinions based on this or any idea. Please be careful!
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Idea: