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Fundamental-analysis

Stick with the broader perspective on Eurozone - short euroFundamentals EUR: There are indeed hawkish expectations as ECB officials reiterated the need for further hikes in June-July to tame sticky inflation. However, most if not all leading indicators' latest readings point to a decrease in economic activity. I believe yesterday's spike is the result of pricing in those hawkish expectations, which is overdone. The idea is to follow the bigger picture of the economic conditions in the Eurozone. ECB may try to hike rates a few times to fight inflation, but the major downtrend in the euro should continue unless leading indicators show some improvements. Additionally, the positioning of retail traders is mostly long - an old habit of fighting a fundamental trend. At some point the retailers should take their losses, feeding the downtrend. USD: Yes, there's a pause in rate hikes expected in June, but Fed has been more successful in lowering inflation, while recent data showed some signs of improvement in economic conditions (consider Retail sales and NFP). Also, the medium-term Fed's outlook is still quite hawkish because inflation is still well above the regulator's target Technical & other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Range Min. Target: MA(10) *The market is likely to range until FOMC, so the target is quite limited.
Short
by Cherry94
4
Follow me: Gold will focus on the 1970-73 area next week, layoutHow was last week my friend? Gold fell back quickly after rising to around 1973 on Friday. Obviously, it still lacks motivation. The big Yin line was covered directly, and it also closed the upper shadow line. This is unreasonable. It has once again verified the strength of the upper resistance level. Next week we can Continue to implement the high short-selling strategy. The hourly line of the gold price is in a downward trend. The high point connection is a downward trend, and the k-lines are all in a downward trend. At present, it is still difficult to achieve 1980. As long as we do not break through this historic resistance, we will be short. At the same time, 1985 ~1940 is also a wide range of shocks as a whole, breaking through the 1940 line, you can increase your position and short. Our direction for next week is very clear, look for opportunities to go short below 1980, once we break through this resistance level, we will adjust and go long in time! Operating strategy: XAUUSD: 1970sell 1940tp. 1980sl
TVC:GOLD
by ActuaryJ
Daily BTC 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the downtrend channel in which the BTC price is moving. Further, we can see that the price bounces in a place just before the EMA Cross 200 line, which indicates the continuation of the long-term uptrend. Now we can move on to marking support areas in case of deepening correction. And here we first have support at $24868, but when the price goes lower we have very strong support at $24049, then third support at $23361 and fourth support at $22672. Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the trend based fib extension tool, we can determine the places of resistance. And here the first significant resistance will appear at the price of $28069, then the second resistance at the price of $29725, the third resistance at the price of $31102, only when the price breaks it will move towards the resistance at $32441. Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that we have a lot of energy for the next price movements, the MACD indicator indicates a downward trend, while the RSI shows a visible rebound, but there is still room for the price to go down to lower levels in the coming days.
by cryptodailyuk
1
Silver Linings Trade BookAt the expense of using a mixed metaphor, silver may at times appear to be a mercurial trading instrument. Even if you only trade silver as a CFD product, utilising pure technical analysis, and without holding any of it as a physical asset, you should still be aware of the macroeconomic context that influences this metal alongside supply and demand fundamentals. Silver, according to many players in the market, is heavily manipulated by some of the big banks as well as the U.S. Fed and Treasury. By manipulation, we mean a suppression of the real price of silver given bullish fundamentals that should translate into much higher prices. Let’s first discuss the safe haven nature of silver. Four precious metals typically interest safe haven investors, namely gold, silver, platinum and palladium. It may come as a surprise to many that gold is not always the strongest and safest of havens and indeed during certain periods, silver, along with platinum and palladium, has acted as a safe haven when gold has not. Silver has been resilient in this regard as seen through the Covid-19 pandemic when its position as a safe haven asset climbed 47.89% between 31/12/2019 and 31/12/2020 compared to 25.12% for gold, 25.86% for palladium and 10.92% for platinum during the same period. Silver’s backbone though is built from its use as an industrial metal and although industrial demand has been fickle since Covid-19, that’s still not been as fickle as investment demand since that time. As of January 2020, industrial buyers accounted for more than 50% of demand for the metal. Recent bearish economic data from key markets such as the U.S., China and Germany has put a lid on any attempts at a parabolic move eyeing the highs of Feb 2021 despite gold hitting an all-time high recently. When the global economy emerges from troubled waters, the global drive for cleaner energy will resume in earnest and make silver a key decarbonisation trade and we may see a resumption of the 2020 bull run. There is still room for a momentum rebound with a change in sentiment and consequent space to manoeuvre between where we are at the moment and the $30 high reached in early Feb 2021 and between that top and the all-time high of $49 in 2011. Technical traders using leverage on gold CFDs, especially intra-day traders, get nervous when they look at the price action of silver in comparison. Silver’s price action is not as smooth as gold’s and the daily ranges may also appear tighter in comparison but this is in part due to silver’s wider use in industry compared to the yellow metal. As a result, silver has more cyclical characteristics than gold but this helps contextualise patterns and trends for trade analysis. Traders are losing out on not trading silver because intra-day trades as well as swing/position trades can offer an excellent risk to reward ratio with this instrument. Silver, like gold, is also offered by many brokers with a very reasonable spread and ones that are also much lower compared to platinum and palladium. As always, remember that when you go to market, be careful out there.
TVC:SILVER
by BluetonaFX
7
Inflation & Geopolitical Context should support Gold in MidtermNonetheless, Q1 2023 gold fundamentals were still interesting and most likely, the Central Banks' interest in gold could continue for much longer. In our view, the current inflationary and geopolitical environment will still support the yellow metal in mid-term, at least for the next 12-24 months. Gold Demand Trends Q1 2023 (Mixed picture for gold demand in Q1) Continued momentum in central bank buying and resurgent Chinese consumer demand contrasted with a negative contribution from ETFs and weakness in India. Q1 gold demand (excluding OTC) was 13% lower y/y at 1,081 tonnes (t). Inclusive of OTC, total gold demand strengthened 1% y/y to 1,174t as a recovery in OTC investment – consistent with investor positioning in the futures market – offset weakness in some areas. Demand from central banks experienced significant growth during the quarter. Official sector institutions remained keen and committed buyers of gold, adding 228t to global reserves. Bar and coin investment gained 5% y/y to 302t, concealing some large regional variations. In contrast, net negative demand for ETFs, although modest at -29t, generated a hefty y/y decline compared with the sizable inflows seen in Q1’22. Global jewellery consumption was virtually flat at 478t. Jewellery fabrication exceeded consumption as stock building added just over 30t to global inventories. Gold use in the technology sector continued to suffer from the challenging economic climate. Demand slumped to 70t – the second lowest quarter in our data series back to 2000. Modest growth in both mine production (+2%) and recycling (+5%) led to a marginal increase in Q1 total gold supply to 1,174t. The uptick in recycling was largely a function of higher gold prices. The LBMA Gold Price (PM) averaged US$1,890/oz during the quarter, marginally higher y/y. The price was over 10% higher than the previous quarter’s average, almost matching the Q3’20 record high. China saw a strong relief rally in the first post-COVID quarter of unfettered consumer spending. The recovering domestic economy and healthy income growth reignited domestic consumption, while the eye-catching gold price performance spurred investment interest. Indian demand fell sharply as local gold prices applied the brakes . Record high – and volatile – domestic gold prices discouraged both investment and jewellery consumption during the quarter. Investment dominates the outlook for 2023. We continue to see healthy upside for investment this year, while the picture for fabrication (jewellery and technology) is more muted. Further robust central bank buying is expected, albeit below 2022’s record. Modest growth is likely in both mine production and recycling. In conclusion , in addition to waiting with confidence for Q2 data, in short term the gold price could be slightly high to increase institutional appetite, but we think that any downward peak will be seen by Central Banks as an interesting opportunity to add value to their reserves. Conversely, but only in the short term, speculators could lighten some positions by taking part in the profits. Technically speaking , in near term, gold could trigger some bearish consolidation as we have shown in our previous analysis. (Click & Play on chart below to follow it) Trade with care! Like 🚀 if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheAnonymousBanker
2
A DEEP TECHNICAL DIVE ON 2023 BTCTECHNICAL OUTLOOK Overall, we anticipate a short-term bearish market trend for Bitcoin, with a potential bearish bias before a potential upward movement, likely occurring towards the end of 2023. Below, I present the key point of interest, where I would consider initiating long or short trades based on the prevailing market conditions at that time. Additionally, the chart below illustrates the potential reactions that can be expected at said point. Once the price reaches this area, I will employ a combination of the RSI indicator to assess market momentum, and the Lorentzian classification algorithm to determine entry points. While it is evident that the market will already be bearish at that stage, I prefer to witness a pullback after the price closes below the trendline before entering a bearish trade. This pullback could range from a retracement of 20% to 100%. Within this range, I will be prepared to initiate a short position once the specified conditions are met, relying on a sell signal generated by the aforementioned indicators or any other technical confirmation. For a more accurate assessment, let us shift our focus to the 4-hour timeframe. Here, we observe that we are presently within a bearish channel. However, I anticipate a temporary retracement to the upside before resuming the downward movement. This expectation is supported by the fact that we are approaching slightly oversold conditions on the daily timeframe. Nevertheless, it is important to note that I maintain an overall bearish outlook on this timeframe as well. I emphasize my predictions accordingly. Additionally, it is worth noting the presence of a significant wick on the 4-hour timeframe originating from the downside. This particular region could potentially serve as a point of rejection, contributing to the current market conditions we are experiencing. If you are looking to trade the pullback this would be a good time to go long once he 4H candle closes and the oscillators are still oversold on the 4H timeframes. As far as technical sentiment goes across all indicators we can see that we have a number of indicator showing a bearish trend however the oscillators are mostly neutral. Which is a good sign meaning that there is still room for the market to push down without any retracements. FUNDUMENTAL OUTLOOK Based on the most recent fundamentals above I conclude the following below. 🔹Bearish Sentiment: Declining Active Wallets: The number of active Bitcoin wallets, both for sending and receiving funds, has been decreasing significantly since mid-April. This trend suggests a decline in user activity and may indicate that rising fees associated with Bitcoin transactions are discouraging users from engaging with the network. Rising Fees: The hype surrounding BTC NFTs and BRC-20s has contributed to increasing fees for interacting with the Bitcoin network. Higher fees can deter users from conducting transactions and lead to a decrease in overall network activity. 🔹Bullish Sentiment: Increased Transactions: The number of daily Bitcoin transactions has grown by 89% from mid-April to mid-May, indicating a surge in activity. This growth can be attributed to the recent BRC-20 craze and the implementation of native solutions for NFTs and issuable tokens on the Bitcoin network. Weakening Correlation with Ethereum: Bitcoin's correlation with Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has reached its weakest point since two years ago. This suggests that the price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum are becoming increasingly non-correlated. Some analysts interpret this as investors considering Ethereum an emerging market after its transition to PoS, while Bitcoin is seen as a hedge asset. Overall, the analysis suggests a mixed sentiment for Bitcoin. While increased transaction activity and the weakening correlation with Ethereum may indicate some bullish factors, the decline in active wallets and rising fees contribute to a bearish sentiment. It is important to consider additional market factors and conduct further analysis to make a more comprehensive assessment.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDShort
by ChristopherDownie
4
XPDUSD - Palladium Surplus?Analysis: When we take a look at the technicals we can see that price is in a downwards trend. We're seeing lows get broken showing us the bearish momentum. Price has recently broken below a key level of previous support which we now expect will hold as resistance. We don't really have any other added confluences to this setup like a trendline or fib retracement levels which is why this isn't one of our favourite setups but still one that we are looking at. To add more clarity to this setup we need to look at the fundamentals. The USD is very strong at the moment and each week we see the USD getting stronger so this isn't something that we want to be going against. One of the main uses of palladium is for catalytic converters in car exhaust systems but with EV cars taking over the market we're starting to see less demand for palladium and it seems like there could be a surplus of palladium which would push price down further. With all of the confluences factors that we have we see price continuing its downwards trend that it is in. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
OANDA:XPDUSDShort
by jpeacockfx
22
FTM/USDT 1DInterval Resistance and SupportHello everyone, I invite you to review the FTM chart also on a one-day interval. At the beginning, with the help of yellow lines, we will mark the downtrend channel in which the price is moving at its lower limit. As we can see the price has fallen below the EMA Cross 200 line, the place where the price falls below this line is a confirmation of going into a strong downtrend, as in this situation. Now let's move on to marking the support points for the price in a situation where the correction will continue to deepen and we see that the price is in front of a very strong support at $0.26, however, if the support is broken, we can see a drop to the next support at 0, $17. Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the first significant resistance is at $0.37, then we have second resistance at $0.42, then there is a strong resistance zone from $0.46 to $0.50. The CHOP index indicates that the energy is slowly gathering strength, the MACD remains in a downward trend but is close to a trend change, while the RSI has been moving at the lower end of the range for some time, which may indicate the approaching end of the current correction in the coming days.
by cryptodailyuk
Daily ETH 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First of all, with the help of yellow lines, we will mark the uptrend channel in which the price is currently moving at its lower border. Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark the support, and as you can see the first support that is currently holding the price is $1851, then we have a support zone from $1687 to $1555, however when the price drops below this zone we can see a drop around the strong support at 1423 $. Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first very strong resistance at the price of $1916, from which the price bounced several times, the next resistance is at the price of $2230, and then the third resistance at the price of $2553. When we turn on the EMA Cross 200, we can see that they indicate an uptrend. The CHOP index indicates that we have a lot of energy for the upcoming move. The MACD indicator indicates the transition to a downtrend. On the other hand, the RSI is moving around the middle of the range, which makes it difficult to clearly determine the upcoming price direction.
by cryptodailyuk
Follow me: Gold rebounds weakly, pay attention to the 1946 regioYesterday the whole world was bullish, but I was still bearish, and I reminded you yesterday that gold was shorted at 1970, and the target was 1950, and gold really rebounded to 1970 at the highest, and then began to fall to 1939 at the lowest. Today gold is slowly oscillating upwards, which is what I expected. Currently bullish in the short term, stop loss 1930, short term is expected to be above 1950, take profit 1955, wait for the opportunity to rebound to 1952-1955 short, target expectation 1940, stop loss 1960​​​​ Next, I will continue to provide more trading signals, follow me!
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
Daily BTC 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the uptrend line that the price is moving at the moment. Locally, we can mark the downtrend channel with blue lines. Now we can move on to marking the places of support in case of returning to the correction. And here we see that the first support is at $26480 which the price is currently based on, then we have the first strong support at $25261 which held the price in the recent rebound, then the third support at $24023 and then the very strong support at $24023 $22,350. Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the fib retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First, we will mark a very strong resistance zone from $28665 to $29463, only when the price breaks it will we move towards the resistance at $30502, and then when the price breaks it, it will open the way towards the resistance at $33426. Please note the CHOP index which indicates that there is still a lot of energy for the upcoming moves, the MACD indicator indicates a return to the downtrend, while the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range, but with room for the price to go a little lower.
by cryptodailyuk
12