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Fundamental-analysis

The JXY: Will It Continue to Rise?My first analysis about the JXY. It will be done periodically from now on to keep a fresh perspective over one of the most important currencies in the world. The Japanese Currency Index (JXY) is a stock market index that measures the performance of the Japanese yen against a basket of six other major currencies: the US dollar, the euro, the British pound, the Swiss franc, the Canadian dollar, and the Australian dollar. The JXY is calculated by weighting the currencies in the basket according to their relative importance to the Japanese economy. Technical Analysis On the 30-minute chart, the JXY is currently trading around its 50-day moving average (MA) and its 200-day MA. This suggests that the index will most likely reverse the trend on this smaller timeframe soon. However, the JXY is also facing resistance at its 50-day MA. If the JXY cannot break through this resistance level, it could fall back to its 200-day MA. On the 4-hour chart, the JXY is also trading around its 50-day MA and its 200-day MA. However, the JXY is also facing resistance at its 50-day MA. If the JXY cannot break through this resistance level, it could fall back to its 200-day MA. Fundamental Analysis The Japanese economy is the third-largest in the world, but it has been struggling in recent years due to a number of factors, including an aging population and a declining birth rate. The Japanese government has implemented a number of policies to stimulate the economy, but these have not been successful in boosting growth. The Bank of Japan has also taken steps to support the economy by keeping interest rates low. However, this has led to a weakening of the Japanese yen. The JXY has fallen by over 20% against the US dollar in the past year. I hope this post is helpful. This analysis represents my thoughts at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
TVC:JXYShort
by YExplore
Euro Currency Index: The Future of the Eurozone?The Euro Currency Index is following the price action that I talked about in my last analysis. For now, not big changes when it comes to technical analysis. Technical analysis On the 30-minute chart, EXY is trading in a descending channel. This suggests that the bears are in control and that the index is likely to continue to decline in the short term. The next key support level is at 100.00, followed by 99.00. On the 4-hour chart, EXY is also trading in a descending channel. However, the channel is starting to widen, which suggests that the bears may be losing momentum. The next key support level is at 100.00, followed by 99.00. On the daily chart, EXY is trading below its 200-day moving average. This is a bearish signal, and it suggests that the index is likely to continue to decline in the medium term. The next key support level is at 100.00, followed by 99.00. Fundamental analysis The eurozone economy is facing a number of challenges in 2023. The war in Ukraine has caused energy prices to soar, which is putting a strain on businesses and consumers. Inflation is also at a multi-decade high, which is eroding household purchasing power. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates in the coming months, which could further weigh on economic growth. Despite these challenges, there are some positive signs for the eurozone economy. The unemployment rate is at a record low, and consumer confidence is starting to rebound. Additionally, the ECB has announced a number of measures to support the economy, such as the new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). I hope this post is helpful. This analysis represents my thoughts at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
TVC:EXYShort
by YExplore
✅ Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 19, 2023Key events: Eurozone - CPI (YoY) (Aug) USA - Building Permits (Aug) On Monday, the major stock market indices on Wall Street displayed fluctuating movements, with particular attention on energy stocks closely following the surging prices of crude oil. Investors were also eagerly awaiting the upcoming interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. Within the sectors of the S&P 500, the energy sector emerged as the top performer, posting a gain of 1.1%. This gain reflected the strengthening of crude oil prices, which approached the significant threshold of $95 per barrel due to ongoing supply constraints. The continued upward trajectory in crude oil prices has raised concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures, despite a series of recent economic data releases surpassing expectations. While these positive economic indicators have eased concerns of an imminent recession, they have not triggered fears of an interest rate hike in September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a marginal gain of 0.02%, equivalent to an increase of 6 points, while the Nasdaq remained relatively stable with a slight 0.01% uptick. The S&P 500 concluded the day with a modest gain of 0.1%. NASDAQ index daily chart SPX index daily chart DJI index daily chart Apple, trading under the ticker symbol AAPL on the NASDAQ, experienced a notable uptick in its stock price, surging by more than 1%. This increase has garnered optimism from certain sectors of Wall Street, particularly with regards to the heightened demand anticipated for Apple's recently unveiled iPhone 15. The optimism is particularly pronounced for the premium iPhone Pro and Pro Max variants, which is a notable departure from the initial reception of the iPhone 14. Apple stock daily chart However, it's important to note that not all perspectives on Wall Street are as optimistic about the iPhone 15's debut. Barclays, for example, pointed out that initial pre-order data suggested a potentially challenging cycle for the iPhone 15 in China. In this market, it seems that demand is tilting towards the more affordable variant of the iPhone 15. Shifting our focus to the financial markets, the GBP/USD pair has once again concluded a trading session below the critical 200-day moving average (SMA 200). What's particularly noteworthy is that this breach occurred not only during today's trading session but also in the previous week. GBP/USD + SMA 200 daily chart The upcoming Bank of England (BOE) decision slated for Thursday adds an element of intrigue to the financial landscape. While market expectations include a 25-basis-point rate hike and an expansion of quantitative tightening measures by the BOE, there is also the potential for dovish commentary from the central bank. Such remarks could exert additional downward pressure on the GBP. In the realm of precious metals, gold prices have experienced a three-day uptrend, surging to $1,930.00 per Troy ounce as of Monday. This rally appears to be fueled by investors seeking a safe haven amid uncertainties surrounding significant events scheduled for later this week. XAU/USD daily chart Investors are currently honing their attention on the imminent decision from the US Federal Reserve, an event widely anticipated to result in the maintenance of the interest rate at the current 5.5% per annum. What will likely be of primary interest during this event is the Fed's evaluation of the economy and inflation, as this will provide crucial insights into the central bank's potential future actions. The allure of gold has been further enhanced by the abrupt depreciation of the yuan exchange rate, rendering the precious metal even more appealing as a safe-haven asset. In the currency market, the dollar index is presently holding its ground, maintaining a position just below a 6-month high as of Monday. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart Taking a step back to examine the broader perspective, recent short-term movements have been characterized by a recurring sideways pattern for the third consecutive week. This period of sideways trading has seen bullish momentum repeatedly encountering significant resistance. The overall trajectory of the dollar hinges significantly on the actions of the Federal Reserve. Should the Fed opt to follow in the footsteps of the European Central Bank and announce the conclusion of its tightening cycle, possibly hinting at the potential for rate cuts beginning in mid-2024, it could result in a weakening of the dollar. On the flip side, one should not dismiss the prospect of a hawkish stance from the Fed. Recent data indicates that the US economy remains robust, boasting a tight labor market. While inflation remains elevated, there are signs of it moving on a downward trajectory. In this scenario, it becomes plausible that the Fed might pursue one more interest rate hike before the year's end, opting to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period until inflation retraces to its 2% target. In such a scenario, the greenback would likely reap the benefits of a stronger position. Shifting our attention to the Australian dollar, it continues to display a lackluster performance as the new trading week kicks off. During Monday's European session, AUD/USD was trading at 0.6438, indicating a modest 0.11% increase. AUD/USD daily chart The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has recently published the minutes from its most recent meeting. During this meeting, the RBA chose to maintain the status quo for the third consecutive month, leaving the official cash rate at 4.10%. This decision occurred in the final meeting led by former Governor Philip Lowe, who acknowledged that inflation had "reached its peak" but was still "uncomfortably high and is likely to remain so for an extended period." This statement left room for potential future rate hikes. However, prevailing market sentiment appears to lean towards a more dovish outlook, with expectations that the RBA may consider lowering rates at some point in 2024. Investors will be carefully analyzing the minutes for any indications or insights into the RBA's prospective rate decisions.
by FOREXN1
3
ETH/USDT 4HInterval Review ChartHello everyone, I invite you to review the ETH pair to USDT chart, also on a four-hour time frame. First of all, we can use the blue lines to mark the downward trend channel from which we could see the exit from the top and we are currently moving above the local upward trend line. However, it is worth noting that at this point it was not possible to break out of the moving average of 200, which indicates that the downward trend remains. Now let's move on to marking the support places. To mark supports, we will use the trend based fib extension tool, and as you can see, first we have a support zone from $1,618 to $1,587, then we will mark the second visible zone from $1,563 to $1,537, and then the third strong zone from $1,500 to $1,454. Looking the other way, we can similarly mark places where the price should encounter resistance on the way up. And here we have the first very strong resistance at the price of $1,652, which has currently rejected the price increase, then we have to overcome a strong resistance zone from $1,685 to $1,727, only after going higher and testing this zone will we see further increases. Index CHOP indicates that energy has been used. On the RSI, despite room for growth, the correction on BTC also had an impact on the entire market, which resulted in a price recovery, while the STOCH indicator showed energy consumption, which resulted in a quick recovery.
by cryptodailyuk
2
CUP AND HANDLE• weekly chart analysis • cup and handle chart pattern breakout • one year to breakout cup and handle pattern • stock treading at the 557 level and 530–535 as a breakout of the pattern. • target for the chart patterns 680 fundamental analysis positive for the stock 1) PE RATIO < INDUSRTY PE 2) PEG BELOW 1 3) ROE > 15% 4) ROCE NEAREST 15% Business Segments Edible Oil and Vanaspati Distillery Real Estate NEGATIVE FOR THE STOCK 1) DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO APROX 1 2) EV/EBITDA HIGH 3) NO ONE MUTUAL FUND AND FII BUYING
NSE:BCLINDLong
by investigationofchart
ETH/USDT 1DInterwal Review ChartHello everyone, I invite you to review the ETH to USDT chart on a one-day time frame. As we can see, the price has crossed the bottom of the upward trend lines, but currently we are staying at the lower border of the downward trend channel marked with blue lines. As we can see, the price behaves similarly to the BTC price and remains just below the blue EMA Cross 200 line, remaining in a downward trend. When we spread the FIB Retracement grid, we can determine a support zone from $1,609 to $1,482, which maintained the price during the correction, but when we fall below this zone, we still have support at $1,304, and then we can see a strong decline to the support level of $1,073 . Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the resistance areas that the price must face. And here we see that the price does not have the strength to cross the resistance zone from $1,676 to $1,765, then we have a second smaller zone from $1,836 to $1,908, and then a third, very strong resistance zone from $2,010 to $2,139. The CHOP index indicates that there is energy to make another move, on the RSI we are moving in the lower part, but you can see that a small price movement gives a large movement on the indicator, while the STOCH indicator shows the use of energy for an upward movement in which we can see the price going up a little more up.
by cryptodailyuk
BTC/USDT 1DInterval ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in the USDT pair, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the upward trend from which the price came out at the bottom, while currently we are moving under the orange line which indicates that the downward trend remains. Now we can move on to marking support areas in the event of a correction. And here, first of all, it is worth marking a strong support zone from $25,679 to $24,249, which has so far kept the price from further declines, but when we fall below this zone, we may see a drop to the area of $22,184, and further even to the support area at the price of 19,529 $. Looking the other way, we can determine resistance locations in a similar way using the Fib Retracement tool. First, we will mark the resistance zone from $26,541 to $227,585, which the price cannot cope with for now, when it manages to overcome it, we have the second zone from $29,196 to $30,376. When we manage to overcome these two zones, we will go towards the resistance at the price of $31,873, only when the price positively tests it will we be able to see further increases. When we turn on the EMA Cross 200, we see that the price is again approaching an attempt to attack the blue line, which could result in a return to the upward trend. Please pay attention to the CHOP index, which indicates that we have more and more energy for the upcoming move, on the RSI we are moving around the middle of the range, which may result in a price recovery, while the STOCH indicator indicates that the energy of the upward movement is running out, which may also translate into price recovery before further increases.
by cryptodailyuk
1
Pandemic Champion Zoom will be back!In this work, I will analyze Zoom Video Communications, Inc., a leading company in the cloud communication and collaboration sector, which offers online videoconferencing, chat, telephony, webinars, among other services, for different segments and audiences. My investment thesis is that Zoom is an innovative and profitable company that has the potential to remain a leading video-based unified communications platform well into the future. To support this thesis, I will evaluate the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the company. In the qualitative part, I will describe Zoom's business model and strategy, showing how it differs from its competitors, what are its strengths and weaknesses, the opportunities and threats it faces in the global market. In the quantitative part, I will present Zoom's financial and operational data, demonstrating how it has grown in recent years, and what its projections are for the future, for a well-structured technical analysis based on Wyckoff, structures and volume delta. _____ _____ _____ Company History The company emerged in 2011, as a result of the vision of Eric Yuan, a former engineer at Cisco Systems, who recognized the need to create a simpler, reliable, and high-quality communication platform. The company launched its main product, Zoom Meeting, in 2013, and has since been growing rapidly in terms of customers, revenue, and profit. The company went public on the NASDAQ stock exchange in April 2019, with an initial public offering (IPO) of $36 per share. In June 2019, the company became part of the Russell 2000 index, which comprises smaller-cap companies in the United States. In April 2020, the company was promoted to the Russell 1000 index, which includes larger-cap companies in the United States. In august 2020, the company surpassed a market value of $100 billion, becoming one of the most valuable technology companies in the world. Company's Sector of Operation The company operates in the software as a service (SaaS) sector, which is a business model that provides information technology solutions over the internet, without the need for customers to install or maintain hardware or software. The SaaS sector is a growing and competitive industry, benefiting from digitization, mobility, and cloud trends. Within the SaaS sector, the company excels in the cloud communication and collaboration (CCaaS) segment, which offers online services to facilitate remote work, distance education, and social interactions. The CCaaS segment is dynamic and innovative, adapting to technological changes and consumer demands. It is also a challenging and regulated segment, facing competition from major market players like Microsoft Teams, Google Meet, Cisco Webex, and Skype. Diversification and Innovation Strategy The company's strategy is to diversify and innovate its products and services to meet customer needs and differentiate itself from competitors. The company aims to become an open and flexible platform that integrates various cloud communication and collaboration solutions. Some examples of products and services that the company has launched or acquired in recent years include: Zoom Phone: a cloud telephony system that allows users to make and receive calls using the same Zoom Meeting application. Zoom Rooms: an integrated system that transforms any physical space into a virtual meeting room with video, audio, and screen sharing. Zoom Webinar: an online service that enables users to host virtual events with up to 50,000 participants and 100 speakers. Zoom Chat: an online service that allows users to exchange instant messages with other Zoom users or external contacts. OnZoom: an online platform that allows users to create, host, and monetize interactive virtual events, such as classes, shows, workshops. Kites: a startup specialized in real-time automatic translation for video conferences. SWOT Analysis It is an essential tool for evaluating a company to invest in, as it offers a broad and organized view of the company's current situation. It consists of identifying the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and threats that affect the company's performance. This is a qualitative analysis and does not replace technical or fundamental analysis. The company's SWOT analysis is as follows: Strong points: Freemium model: Zoom offers a free basic plan that allows up to 100 participants and unlimited sessions of up to 40 minutes, attracting those looking for an affordable and quality solution for online communication. Ease of use: It is known for its simple and intuitive interface, which allows participants to start and join sessions with just a few clicks. The company also offers features such as virtual backgrounds and video retouching to enhance the look and feel of those involved during sessions. Global Usage: The platform has a global presence, with more than 300 million daily session participants and more than 213,000 enterprise customers worldwide. It also supports multiple languages and currencies, meeting the needs of diverse audiences. Financial strength: The company has experienced significant revenue and profit growth in recent years, driven by the high demand for online communication during the COVID-19 pandemic. Zoom's total revenue for fiscal 2023 was $4,393 billion, up 7% year-over-year. Business revenue was US$2.409 billion, an increase of 24% compared to the previous year. Brand name: The solution has become a household name and synonymous with online communication, thanks to its popularity and recognition among consumers. Zoom has also received several awards and recognition for its quality and innovation, such as the Webby Award for Best Mobile App in 2020. Weak points: Security issues: The company has faced many security and privacy issues in the past, such as “zoom bombing”, which is the unauthorized invasion of sessions by malicious people who interrupt or share inappropriate content. It has also been criticized for sharing consumer data with third parties without proper consent. They don't offer end-to-end encryption: Despite claiming to offer end-to-end encryption, the platform actually uses a type of encryption that allows the company to access session data if it wants to. This raises concerns about the confidentiality and integrity of participant communications. Zoom Rooms: Zoom rooms are a feature that allows stakeholders to create dedicated physical spaces for online communication using specialized Zoom or partner hardware. However, this feature is expensive and requires an additional monthly subscription, which may limit its adoption among customers. Opportunities: Growing demand: Demand for online communication is set to continue to grow in the future as more people embrace remote work and hybrid work models. The company can capitalize on this opportunity by expanding its customer base and offering customized solutions for different industries and needs. Up-selling: It can increase its revenue by encouraging basic plan consumers to upgrade to paid plans, which offer more features and benefits, such as longer sessions, more participants, recording and cloud storage, Zoom Phone and Zoom Rooms. Diversification: The platform can diversify its offer of products and services, exploring new markets and segments, such as health, education, entertainment, and e-commerce. The company can also develop new technologies and features, such as augmented reality, artificial intelligence and machine translation, to improve the user experience and differentiate itself from the competition. Threats: Intense competition: The company faces strong competition from other players in the online communication market, such as Microsoft Teams, Google Meet, Cisco Webex, Skype, and Facebook Messenger. These competitors have greater financial, technological and marketing resources than it does and can offer integrated and competitive solutions to customers. Regulatory changes: The platform is subject to various laws and regulations in different countries and regions, which may affect its operations and revenues. For example, it may face restrictions or bans from operating in certain markets due to national security, data privacy or human rights concerns. The company may also face fines or penalties for violating these laws and regulations. Dependence on network infrastructure: The quality and performance of Zoom services depend on the availability and reliability of network infrastructure, such as bandwidth, internet speed and stability. Any interruption or degradation of these factors could negatively impact the user experience and the reputation of the solution. Final qualitative analysis opinion ZM benefits from its freemium model, ease of use, global usage, financial strength and brand name. But, it also faces challenges such as security issues, lack of end-to-end encryption, cost of Zoom rooms, intense competition, regulatory changes and dependence on network infrastructure. The company can take advantage of videoconferencing demand growth, up-selling and diversification opportunities to overcome its weaknesses and threats. The platform must invest in improving its security and privacy, innovating its products and services and expanding its presence in new markets and segments. Zoom has the potential to remain one of the leading video-based unified communications solutions in the future. _____ _____ _____ Fundamental Analysis: We will introduce fundamental analysis, focusing on the company's financial health and performance. For this, we will use financial data from the second quarter of the fiscal year 2024 (ended on July 31, 2023). The financial indicators we will consider are: EBITDA, CFO, ROE, ROIC, Gross Margin, and Operating Margin. Description of fundamentals: Source: Yahoo Finance The company has good liquidity, as it has a high ratio of liquid assets in relation to liquid liabilities, which indicates a low default rate on its basic obligations and low default rates. Furthermore, the company has a large loss in relation to equity and this further reduces its potential market value. Source: Yahoo Finance The company has excellent financial health and strong performance. The company demonstrates high operating profit (EBITDA), good cash generation (CFO), good return on equity (ROE) and invested capital (ROIC), and good gross and operating margins. These results show that the company is efficient, profitable, sustainable, and competitive in the video conferencing and online collaboration market. Other Fundamentals indicators We will address other economic indicators that are not as necessary but can be incorporated into our fundamental analysis. Source: Yahoo Finance The data in this table shows that the company has a good financial performance, but also faces some problems. For one, Zoom Meeting has a high P/E Ratio, which indicates that investors expect future earnings growth from the company. Zoom Meeting also has a high Enterprise Value, which represents the company's total value in the market. These indicators suggest that Zoom Meeting is a successful and innovative company, offering a high-quality and in-demand communication service. On the other hand, Zoom Meeting has a low P/B Ratio and a low PSR, which indicate that the company is trading at a price well above its book value and sales. This could mean that Zoom Meeting is overvalued or faces strong competition in its industry. Furthermore, Zoom Meeting does not pay dividends to its shareholders, which may discourage some investors looking for a stable and secure income. These indicators propose that Zoom Meeting is a risky and volatile company that depends heavily on market expectations and industry trends. Final opinion of fundamental analysis It has significant potential for growth and generating value for shareholders, especially in a scenario of increased demand for digital solutions, but it needs to face the threats mentioned previously in the company's SWOT analysis. . Technical Analysis To begin the study, first, we observe that the stock was launched in April 2019, and in January 2020, there was a significant increase, as we can see in the weekly chart. With this, we will divide this technical analysis into three parts. In this chart, we have the presence of three volume profiles. It calculates volume by price level based on the Gaussian curve and is excellent for measuring long-term position buildups, especially in a weekly chart like this. Analysis of the first profile: ZM Weekly Chart Note that, since the IPO process, the stock appreciated by 671.09%, which is quite substantial. Many companies were negatively affected during the pandemic, but this one inadvertently benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic. In this first profile, we see the largest position buildup right at the range of 68.75 to 76.95. You can already see 2 candles of aggression, as shown in the second graph, causing significant drops. Analysis of the second profile: ZM Weekly Chart Observing the second profile, we see a lack of demand from buyers and a position buildup on the selling side, unlike what we observed at the beginning. Analysis of the third profile: ZM Daily Chart Upon examining the last profile, we see that despite the market coming from a downtrend channel, we can observe a drastic increase in volume per price level, which is a characteristic of a position buildup. As we gradually see, the seller has been reducing their position, and furthermore, the stock is in a downtrend channel that if it surpasses 78.50, combining it with the fundamentals, we could potentially have an upward trend. Macroeconomics and Technical Analysis Surprisingly, Zoom is not the only one that experienced a drop that significantly devalued its stock. Several companies listed on the Nasdaq Composite, including the Nasdaq Composite itself, suffered from a drop that impacted the United States economy. E-mini Nasdaq Weekly This was motivated by high inflation, which reached around 9%, which is indeed a very concerning figure for the US economy. By February, inflation had already reached 7.5%, which was already a very high percentage, as technology companies react poorly to inflation. This explains the poor performance of these stocks. February table Source: Tradingview Economic Calendar These data explain the drop in assets listed on the Nasdaq, but surprisingly, Zoom was affected much more than the other companies. Later, when the price started to increase slightly; And the year 2022 contributed even further to the devaluation of ZM shares. But as we can see, the asset was already in the process of falling long before: ZM Daily Chart There was the beginning of a bearish rally there. Even if the current data are not so favorable, the deflation process that occurred in the United States, together with the artificial intelligence race, could also be a detail that will greatly help in the ZM valuation process. September table updated Source: Tradingview Economic Calendar September's data clearly reveals a drop in inflation, but with several very significant drops, in addition to some negative points such as the reduction in job creation and economic development. Look at the table below: Source: Tradingview Economic Calendar Based on this table, Zoom Communications could have a positive result as the company recorded a drop in inflation in September, implying that the costs of products and services decreased. This can benefit consumers and businesses that use the Zoom Service. Conclusion Zoom Video Communications Inc. is a company with good financial and market performance, despite the broad devaluation it suffered in 2021/2022. It demonstrates good fundamental analysis with strong revenue and profit growth, a high net margin, low debt and a good market value. The company also presents good technical analysis. It is undervalued, having been at an all-time low since its IPO, building a position for a likely long-term upward trend. Although the macroeconomy does not favor the variable income market due to a high interest rate of 5.5% (possible readjustment to 5.75% in September), it can also benefit from the ongoing economic deflation, which should stabilize in the end of 2024. It also has the potential to recover from the decline it has experienced and stand out in the technology market, especially in the videoconferencing segment, which has been less and less in demand post-pandemic and in times of remote work. Demonstrating its ability to innovate and adapt to changes in the economic and social panorama, offering quality and safe solutions to its customers. Therefore, it is believed that Zoom is a good investment option for those seeking long-term profitability and growth. I hope you enjoyed this article and found it helpful. Thank you for your attention, and until next time!
NASDAQ:ZMLong
by Victoredbr
2
XAUUSD UPDATEhi all The FOMC meets eight times per year and releases forecasts in March, June, September, and December. In June, the Fed announces two rate increases. In July, 1st raises the rate to 5.50. Since the impact of oil only recently begun in September, I doubt the FOMC will hike interest rates to 5.75 percent this week. As a result, the FOMC will hike rates for the 2nd time in October, to 25 basis points, once the October CPI data exposes the damage by oil cut. After the FOMC meeting in October, I expect the USDX to gain. technical point: I watch for a rejection at level 1900 for pullback **My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading skills** Thanks a lot for your support
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mytw0cents
EURUSD Short Up Move Before a Bigger DropECB Likely to Keep Interest Rates Steady for the First Time in Over a Year It's expected that the European Central Bank will keep key interest rates unchanged on Thursday. ECB President Christine Lagarde might hint at a potential rate hike later in the year. The Euro is gearing up for potential market turbulence based on the ECB's decision and Lagarde's press conference. The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to maintain its current interest rates, marking the first time it has done so since early 2022. This decision will come after the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Additionally, the ECB will release its updated staff projections for the quarter, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference at 12:45 GMT. What to Expect Regarding ECB Interest Rates and How It Could Impact EUR/USD The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently facing a challenging decision as it deals with the increased risks of stagflation. This decision is the most significant since it began raising interest rates in July 2022. In August, the Eurozone's annual inflation rate dropped to 5.3%, a significant decrease from the 10.6% recorded in October 2022. However, core inflation remains stubbornly above 5.0%, well above the ECB's 2.0% target. If the ECB maintains rates while adopting a hawkish tone, indicating the possibility of another rate hike by year-end, it is likely that EUR/USD will resume its upward trajectory towards 1.0850. Should the ECB announce a 25 bps rate hike, it would confirm a bullish reversal from multi-month lows. Nevertheless, the key drivers for additional gains in EUR/USD will depend on the policy guidance and President Christine Lagarde's statements. Conversely, if the ECB decides to pause rate hikes and lacks clarity on its future path, it will likely please doves and push EUR/USD back towards 1.0650. Other Key Market Insights for today, this week EUR/USD is holding onto its gains near 1.0750 as the US Dollar (USD) remains weak, following mixed US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. On Tuesday, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment improved to 11.4 in September. However, the index measuring current conditions hit a three-year low at -79.4. The ZEW Institute stated that "Financial market experts are even more pessimistic about the current economic situation in Germany than they were in August 2023." In August, the annual United States inflation gauge rose to 3.7%, surpassing the expected 3.6% increase. The CPI increased by 0.6% in August, marking its largest monthly gain in 2023, in line with market estimates. The core CPI also increased by 0.3% and 4.3%, respectively, compared to estimates of 0.2% and 4.3%. US S&P 500 futures are rising due to market optimism, as the latest US data supports the idea of a Federal Reserve (Fed) pause. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond is declining, approaching 3.21%. The upcoming ECB event will play a pivotal role in shaping the short-term direction of the EUR/USD pair, with attention shifting to next week's Fed policy announcements.
Short
by financialflagship
EURAUD: When China's news make Aussie and other Asians strong! My dear friends, Thursday, 14 September, 2023 and ECB interest rate decision is on the way. We'll wait for confirmations. But before ECB meeting, series of several bad economical news over China's financial stability were published. Market reacted to them rationally. Suddenly the red dragon start to regain it's reputation. Good news for China means stronger Aussie, Kiwi and Yen! A personal belief: Markets are not optimist to China's long-term relations with the free world and it makes them avoid longer term investing on Asian currencies. We could expect a more bearish weeks for them in next months, however, we don't hold that much so a mid-term bearish correction could be a opportunity for us! Regarding the weekly chart, some more corrective weekly candles are expected. snapshot Considering the daily timeframe, market structure has changed so there could be a stop hunt around 1.68950 snapshot The horizontal level could be a high probable and good R-to-R entry point. Levels are based on: Order-blocks, Pivot Points, Support and resistance and Reversal points.
Short
by AliSignals
Has Oil Reached Peak Demand? Unveiling the Unique OPEC+ DealIntroduction: In recent years, the global oil market has witnessed significant shifts that have left traders and analysts questioning the future of this vital commodity. One of the most intriguing developments is the unique Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ deal, which has sparked speculation about whether we have reached peak oil demand. In this article, we will delve into the details of this groundbreaking agreement and encourage traders to question their long-term perspectives on oil in a cautious tone of voice. Understanding the Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ Deal: The Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ deal, initiated in 2016, aimed to stabilize oil prices by managing production levels. This unprecedented alliance brought together the world's largest oil producers, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC members, to collectively adjust their output to balance supply and demand. The agreement's primary objective was to prevent a repeat of the 2014 oil price crash, which had severe repercussions for the global economy. Peak Demand: A Paradigm Shift: However, the dynamics of the global energy landscape have evolved since the inception of the Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ deal. Heightened concerns over climate change, coupled with the rapid growth of renewable energy sources, have led to a paradigm shift in the way we perceive and consume energy. As a result, the notion of peak oil demand has gained traction, suggesting that global oil demand may have reached its peak and is now on a downward trajectory. Call-to-Action: Questioning Longs on Oil: In light of these emerging trends, traders must reevaluate their long-term perspectives on oil. While the oil demand will likely persist for years to come, the Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ deal and changing global dynamics necessitate a cautious approach. Here are a few key points to consider: 1. Diversify Your Portfolio: As the energy landscape transforms, it becomes crucial to diversify investment portfolios to include renewable energy sources, clean technologies, and other sustainable sectors. This will help mitigate potential risks associated with a declining demand for oil. 2. Stay Informed: Keep a close watch on market trends, technological advancements, and government policies that promote renewable energy. Understanding the evolving landscape will enable traders to make informed decisions and adapt to changing market conditions. 3. Embrace Innovation: Explore opportunities within the renewable energy sector, such as investing in solar, wind, or hydrogen technologies. These sectors are expected to experience significant growth and may provide alternative avenues for profitable investments. Conclusion: The unique Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ deal has undoubtedly played a crucial role in stabilizing oil prices and ensuring market equilibrium. However, the rise of renewable energy sources and growing concerns over climate change have led to the notion of peak oil demand. As traders, it is essential to question our longs on oil and adopt a cautious approach while diversifying our portfolios, staying informed, and embracing innovation. By doing so, we can navigate the evolving energy landscape and seize opportunities that arise from this transformative period in the history of the global oil market.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
AUD/JPY - The Price of PatienceThe AUD/JPY pair is trading in a sideways range on the 30-minute chart, with the price currently consolidating between the 94.20 and 94.40 levels. The pair has been trading in this range for the past few days, and it is unclear which way it will break out. Fundamental Analysis The fundamental factors that are affecting the AUD/JPY pair include the following: The Australian economy is growing at a slower pace than expected, which is weighing on the Australian dollar. The Japanese economy is also growing at a slower pace, but the Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates low, which is supportive of the Japanese yen. The risk appetite of investors is declining, which is making them less willing to hold riskier assets like the Australian dollar. Technical Analysis The technical indicators on the 30-minute chart are mixed. The RSI is neutral, while the MACD is bearish. The stochastic oscillator is also bearish, but it is starting to turn up. Conclusion The AUD/JPY pair is trading in a sideways range on the 30-minute chart. The fundamental factors are mixed, and the technical indicators are also mixed. The pair is likely to remain range-bound for the time being, but it could break out to the upside or downside if there is a significant change in the fundamental or technical factors.
by YExplore
XAUUSD Possibilities!!!The last week wasn't a good one supposed to be for stock market because of PMI and Unemployment Data which lead DXY to surge again, in general some Data such as CPI and retail sales can declare the next trend for stock market. All traders' attentions focus on CPI before FED Meeting and CPI might be reach to 3.6%, beside that if Core CPI decreased probably have no effect on Yields bond. The possibility of a 0.25% increase in interest rates by November has increased after the very favorable release of the US Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and we can hope for further strengthening of the US dollar in the event of a favorable release of data next week. On the one hand, gold is under the pressure of high real interest rates and on the other hand, the strengthening of DXY. Currently, gold is in valuable ranges, and as mentioned in the video of the monthly report, the valuable ranges of gold for the long-term view are the ranges of 1890, 1860, 1830, and 1790 dollars. It should be kept in mind that if the dollar index stabilizes above the range of 105, there is a possibility that the downward movement of gold will continue to the range of 1893 dollars. if You have any opinion about this topic, it would be appreciated to share with me. Behzad.J
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by behzadjl
GBPUSD, Further ShortOn the Weekly time frame, the last two daily candles closed below the EMA-200 dynamic support in a descending price channel within a monthly falling wedge. There was a breakout of the falling wedge which under normal circumstances would have been a bullish start at the base of it, but this decline was as a result of the rising DXY index over the week past. The retest into the wedge by the last daily candle was resisted by the EMA-200 support. This signifies huge declines in the coming days. The upside swing of the DXY index is also evident backing further declines of the GBPUSD. Resistance: 1.25331 Support: 1.23083, 1.22743, 1.21523
Short
by AbeikuGlobal_FX
1
GOLD, to continue the bearish waveLast Thursday, gold price attempted to make a correction towards the $1930 PER ounce but was quickly rejected by the EMA-200/100 on the 4Hr time frame at $1929.814 which signifies that the bears are still in control in that region. Last Friday, the price declines to 1919.085 at the time of market closure whereby the last two 4Hr candles closed below the trendline support that has been holding the bulls since 21st August 2023. As long as the candles are closing below that trendline support signals the potential continuation of the bears movement down to the next significant level (1903). Important news coming up this week which can alter the direction of the gold market so keep your eyes on the news on Wednesday to Friday. DXY has for the next consecutive 8 weeks been a bullish swing that could put more selling pressure on gold. Wednesday: CPI Thursday: PPI, retail sales and unemployment claims Friday: Empire State Manufacturing Index and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. Resistance: 1925 Support: 1907, 1903, 1896
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AbeikuGlobal_FX
1
GBP/USD bearish uncertaintyGBP/USD Fundamental and Technical Analysis (FTA) The GBP/USD price is found in a narrow range of 1.2490-05 on September 7, 2023, staying close to the June lows. On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD is still trading below the MA (200) H1 (1.2615) moving average line. The situation is similar on the four-hour chart. On the 30 min chart, see the mentions on the chart. From a fundamental perspective, there are a few factors that could weigh on the GBP/USD in the near term. These include: The ongoing political uncertainty in the UK, as the country prepares for a general election in the coming months. The weak economic outlook for the UK, as the country grapples with high inflation and slowing growth. The strong dollar, which is being supported by rising US interest rates. On the technical side, the GBP/USD is currently trading below the 200-day moving average, which is a bearish signal. The pair is also trading below a number of Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting that further weakness is possible. However, there are also some factors that could support the GBP/USD in the near term. These include: The Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish stance, as the central bank is expected to raise interest rates again in the coming months. The potential for a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations. The weakness of the euro, which could make the GBP/USD more attractive to investors. Overall, the outlook for the GBP/USD is mixed. The pair is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, but there are some factors that could support it in the longer term. I hope this post is helpful. This analysis represents only my personal thoughts and knowledge at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information. Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
Short
by YExplore
EUR/USD - downtrend or reversal soon?EUR/USD Technical and Fundamental Analysis (TFA) ---Fundamental Analysis From a fundamental perspective, the EUR/USD is facing some headwinds. The European economy is slowing down, and the ECB is expected to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future. The US economy is growing at a faster pace, and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in the coming months. However, there are also some positive factors for the EUR/USD. The eurozone is still a relatively safe haven currency, and it is benefiting from the recent weakness in the US dollar. ---Technical Analysis The pair is still correcting on the downside, forming the Wace C of a bigger Wave 4. I marked two potential targets on the downside. It is not mandatory for the price to hit them both, but for now the trend is on the downside. Watch the price carefully when it gets close to the marked areas, to not be surprised by a sudden price reversal. The technical picture for the EUR/USD is mixed. The exchange rate is trading above its 200-day moving average, which is a bullish sign. However, it is also trading below the 50-day moving average, which is a bearish sign. The key level to watch on the upside is 1.0935, which is the high from last week. A break above this level could signal a move towards 1.1000. On the downside, the key level to watch is 1.0635, which is the May low. A break below this level could signal a move towards 1.0500. Overall, the EUR/USD is a volatile market and the outlook is uncertain. Traders should be prepared for both bullish and bearish moves in the coming days. I hope this post is helpful. This analysis represents my personal thoughts at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information. Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
Short
by YExplore
BTC USD ideaWhen we consider August and its typical volatility, we've seen some unusual corrections in recent years, along with unexpected spikes in volatility. The dollar still has some upper levels to reach before a potential decline. So, if we keep that in mind and the dollar tests higher levels, it logically suggests that BTC/USD could trend lower. Let's keep a close eye on how the dollar behaves in the upcoming weeks. Here at Global Chart Surfers, we've faced a few more losses than expected, but our strong money management keeps us ahead of the game. We hope you all have tight money management practices too, and together, we'll keep navigating the market with the big players. In the grand scheme of things, we have the global supply and demand ranges to work with. Let's stay grounded, stay professional, and keep beating the market! 💼📈🌐
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by themarketknight