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Will the better-than-expected employment data revert AUD's trend+ Macro theme: The RBA kept rates at 4.35%, sounding more optimistic about inflation and hinting at future cuts. But Thu's job numbers might spoil those plans—Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9%, showing a surprisingly strong labor market. This hot jobs data could push back those early 2025 rate-cut forecasts many have been making. + Technical theme: - AUDUSD found support and bounced above 0.6365. The price is within the descending channel and below both EMAs, indicating a bearish momentum persists. - If AUDUSD extends its decline below 0.6365, the price may retest the subsequent support at 0.6300, confluence with the 100% level of Fibonacci Extension. - On the contrary, if AUDUSD surges above 0.6474, breaking its descending channel and EMA21, the price may retest the following resistance around 0.6560. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
by DatTong
XAUUSD BULLISH ANALYSIS (READ CAPTOIN)Hi taders! Share your opinion regarding this chart. Current price: 2695 Currently gold is being supported by buyers as all d1 candle of this week have created bullish candles. After temporary retracement market has returned to it's bullish trend. Rejection of h4 candle is another indicator of a strong bullish market. If gold breakouts the price 2711 which is our demand zone then market will go further high up to 2732. Key points: Support zone : 2690-2680 Resistance zone 2710-2722 Please like comment thank you support
TVC:GOLDLong
by LindaFxTrading
1
AUDUSD ShortAUD/USD remains in a bearish trend, with recent price action aligning with technical and fundamental signals. Traders are watching US PPI data today for potential market-moving insights. Technical Setup Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the 0.71–0.79 Fibonacci zone stands out as a key resistance level, supported by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) from the last swing high. Price is testing the 50% Fibonacci level, creating an opportunity for a short trade. Trade Plan Entry: 0.7120 (near the 0.75 Fibonacci level). Stop Loss: 0.64729 (above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for risk protection). Take Profit: 0.63378 (targeting below the Fair Value Gap for a clean exit). Risk/Reward Insights This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3, with a risk of 64.7 pips to potentially gain 192.1 pips. Disclaimer Trading involves significant risk. Always trade with a clear plan, implement stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—trade responsibly and stay informed. Follow for more actionable trading insights and strategies!
Short
by InwardTrader
AUDUSD ShortAUD/USD remains in a bearish trend, with recent price action aligning with technical and fundamental signals. Traders are watching US PPI data today for potential market-moving insights. Technical Setup Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the 0.71–0.79 Fibonacci zone stands out as a key resistance level, supported by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) from the last swing high. Price is testing the 50% Fibonacci level, creating an opportunity for a short trade. Trade Plan Entry: 0.7120 (near the 0.75 Fibonacci level). Stop Loss: 0.64729 (above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for risk protection). Take Profit: 0.63378 (targeting below the Fair Value Gap for a clean exit). Risk/Reward Insights This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3, with a risk of 64.7 pips to potentially gain 192.1 pips. Disclaimer Trading involves significant risk. Always trade with a clear plan, implement stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—trade responsibly and stay informed. Follow for more actionable trading insights and strategies!
Short
by InwardTrader
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 11, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD lost around 0.2% on Tuesday, declining for the third consecutive day and hitting 1.0500 again, as the euro's bullish near-term recovery comes to naught. Ahead of the key U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figure due for release on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's (ECB) next meeting on Thursday, traders once again adopted a cautious stance. Wednesday's CPI inflation index will be one of the last key data points before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) last meeting in 2024. Signs that inflation progress has stalled could kill hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18. With the current rate cut on Wednesday, U.S. CPI inflation for November is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% y/y from the previous reading of 2.6%, while core annual CPI is expected to remain at 3.3%. Traders estimate the probability of the last quarter-point rate cut this year at 85%. The ECB's latest rate meeting is scheduled for Thursday, and investors are widely expected to get another quarter-point rate cut. The ECB's main refinancing operations rate is forecast to be cut to 3.15% from 3.4% and the ECB deposit rate is forecast to fall to 3.0% from 3.25%. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 1.0480, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
US CPI, WHERE WILL THE DOLLAR GO NEXTTrading Plan BASELINE C urrent Short-Term Sentiment Bias : - The market is currently focused on the upcoming US inflation report and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. - There is an 86% probability priced in for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed later this month⁵. - The dollar index is steady around 106.3, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of the inflation data. SURPRISE Outcome That Will Surprise the Markets Based on the Baseline: - Lower-than-expected inflation data : This would likely lead to USD selling as markets fully price in the anticipated rate cut. A good trade in this scenario would be GBP/USD longs, leveraging the pound's net long positions and the USD's net short positions. - Higher-than-expected inflation data : This would likely result in USD strength as investors adjust their rate cut expectations. A good trade in this scenario would be EUR/USD sells, based on stronger USD institutional positioning compared to the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE Does This Outcome Change the Larger Macro-Fundamental Bias? - Lower-than-expected inflation : Reinforces the expectation of continued easing by the Fed, aligning with the current macro-fundamental bias of a dovish Fed aiming to support economic growth and achieve its 2% inflation target. - Higher-than-expected inflation : Could shift the macro-fundamental bias towards a more cautious Fed, potentially delaying further rate cuts and maintaining a tighter monetary policy stance to combat persistent inflation⁷⁸. Notes - Macro-fundamental bias: The market expects the Fed to continue easing monetary policy to support economic growth and achieve its inflation target. This expectation is based on the Fed's dual mandate and recent economic indicators. - Short-term sentiment bias: The market is currently focused on the upcoming US inflation report and its potential impact on Fed policy, as well as interest rate decision.
TVC:DXY
by Midas_Macro
2
Boeing Seller Exhaustion sets in🐂 Trade Idea: Long - BA 🔥 Account Risk: 15.00% 📈 Recommended Product: Stock 🔍 Entry: +/- 149.00 🐿 DCA: No 😫 Stop-Loss: 135.00 🎯 Take-Profit #1: 260.00 (50%) 🎯 Trail Rest: Yes 🚨🚨🚨 Important: Don’t forget to always wait for strong confirmation once possible entry zone is reached. Trade ideas don’t work all the time no matter how good they look. Do not get a victim of FOMO, there is always another trade idea waiting. 🚨🚨🚨 If you like what you see don’t forget to leave a comment 💬 or smash that like ❤️ button! — BA sees massive seller exhaustion over the last few weeks. There is nothing negative that could be published now that has not already been priced in. Trump's policy of higher tariffs should protect Boeing and the backlog is already at over 10 years of current sales. In view of the duopoly and the points mentioned above, as well as the technical chart picture, strong buying should be made here. — Disclaimer & Disclosures pursuant to §34b WpHG The trades shown here related to stocks, cryptos, commodities, ETFs and funds are always subject to risks. All texts as well as the notes and information do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. They have been taken from publicly available sources to the best of our knowledge and belief. All information provided (all thoughts, forecasts, comments, hints, advice, stop loss, take profit, etc.) are for educational and private entertainment purposes only. Nevertheless, no liability can be assumed for the correctness in each individual case. Should visitors to this site adopt the content provided as their own or follow any advice given, they act on their own responsibility.
NYSE:BALong
by LGNDRY-Capital
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 10, 2024 USDJPYDoubts about the Bank of Japan's ability to keep raising rates proved to be a key factor undermining the yen. The Japanese yen (JPY) lost ground against its U.S. counterpart for the second straight day on Tuesday and lifted the USD/JPY pair to a one-week high, above the mid 151.000s during Tuesday's Asian session. Uncertainty over how soon the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates again has JPY bulls on the defensive. In addition, the overnight rebound in US Treasury yields from October lows undermines the low-yielding Yen. Furthermore, the US Dollar's post-NFP rebound from near one-month lows, backed by expectations of a less accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the currency pair. That said, the softer tone of risk sentiment, concerns that US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans could trigger a second wave of global trade wars, and geopolitical tensions help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven yen. Traders may also refrain from aggressive bullish bets on the USD/JPY pair and prefer to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation data due on Wednesday. The all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be seen as a fresh signal that the Fed is going to cut rates. This, in turn, will stimulate demand for the dollar and provide meaningful momentum to the currency pair ahead of the central bank's key events next week. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell GBP/USD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2668 2nd Support – 1.2620 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
DOGS/USDT - Bullish Channel in H4 ChartThe DOGS/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent formation of well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Days. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 0.0007321, positioned close to bottom of channel level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.0008984 2nd Support – 0.0009749 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
BONK/USDT - H4 - Wedge BreakoutThe BONK/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around Breakout. Target Levels: 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
2
NEIRO/USDT - H4- Triangle BreakoutThe NEIRO/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around Breakout. Target Levels: 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
2
Sell GBP/JPY Channel BreakoutThe GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. FX:GBPJPY Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 188.85 2nd Support – 187.55 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
10
Bitcoin breaks $100,000! A historic milestone.For the first time in history, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has crossed the $100,000 mark, rising 40% in just one month! Experts say this sharp rise is linked to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Analysts believe the crypto market is reacting to Trump’s promises to simplify regulations and make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.” At its peak, Bitcoin reached $104,500 per coin! During his campaign, Trump actively promoted cryptocurrencies: accepting Bitcoin donations, using crypto for purchases, and highlighting blockchain as the future of the economy. The day after his election win, Bitcoin’s price jumped from $68,000 to $74,000 and then started to climb even faster as excitement grew around his plans. What does this mean for global markets? U.S. economy: Hopes for easier regulations are increasing demand for crypto in the U.S. and bringing more investment into blockchain technology. Trump’s choice of Paul Atkins, a known crypto supporter, as the head of the SEC could speed up decisions that benefit the industry. Global competition: Analysts think other countries might start buying Bitcoin to keep up with the U.S. This could create a global race for digital currency and push prices even higher. What should traders expect? More volatility: Bitcoin’s fast rise could lead to bigger price swings. While this offers short-term trading possibilities, a clear trend could also let traders profit from price corrections. Altcoin growth: After Bitcoin’s surge, attention often shifts to altcoins. In the past, such events have boosted Ethereum (ETHUSD) and other projects. Solana (SOLUSD) , the second-largest altcoin by market cap, is already trading at around $240, and experts believe it could go higher. Institutional buying: With Trump supporting crypto, more big investors may join the market. This could bring steady growth. Companies like MicroStrategy (#MicroStrgy ), led by Michael Saylor, have already been buying Bitcoin, and Trump’s presidency could inspire others to follow. Donald Trump’s election win and his crypto-friendly stance have caused a historic Bitcoin rally. This trend is opening new doors for traders. FreshForex analysts believe this growth is a turning point in crypto history! With Trump’s inauguration and a possible altcoin season ahead, now is the time to take your chance and become a crypto millionaire!
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 06, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD is declining to 1.0575 at the start of the European session on Friday. Concerns over US tariffs on European goods and rising bets on interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) are weighing on the Euro against the US Dollar. This Friday, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will take center stage. The single currency remains on the defensive as traders are concerned about potential tariff policies on all goods imported into the US, which could undermine the Eurozone economy. In addition, the ECB is widely expected to cut the interest rate at its last monetary policy meeting of the year. All but two of the 75 economists surveyed believe the ECB will cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Dec. 12. On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would appoint a new prime minister in the coming days, with the top priority being parliament's passage of the 2025 budget. Any signs of political uncertainty in France could contribute to the euro's decline. Abroad, the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce borrowing costs at its December meeting could put pressure on the dollar and limit EUR/USD's decline. Markets now estimate the probability that the central bank will cut rates by a quarter point at its December 17-18 meeting at 70.1%. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0570, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Bitcoin Hits $100K: What Does It Mean for Gold?Bitcoin’s historic surge past $100K has reignited debates about its role in the financial world. Fed Chair Jerome Powell weighed in, calling Bitcoin a "speculative asset," likening it to virtual gold rather than a competitor to the dollar: "It's highly volatile, not a store of value or form of payment. It's really a competitor for gold." With Bitcoin soaring, many are asking: Could this mark the beginning of a stronger correlation between Bitcoin and gold, or are they destined to move on separate paths? Gold Faces Its Own Test While Bitcoin grabs the headlines, gold prices slipped below $2,630 per ounce, pressured by firming U.S. Treasury yields. Benchmark 10-year yields rose 0.6%, as markets anticipate today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to show 200,000 new jobs. A weaker report could lift gold, especially as traders assign a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized caution, acknowledged the economy’s resilience but signaling a careful approach to rate cuts. Gold, often a winner in low-rate environments, now finds itself at a critical juncture. Our Trading Plan for Gold Key levels to watch as we await the NFP report: $2,630: Monitor for price reactions to this recent support. $2,537–$2,530: Look for potential opportunities at this deeper support range. The Bigger Picture As Bitcoin claims new highs and challenges gold’s status as a store of value, gold continues to be swayed by macroeconomic forces. Will gold bounce back, or is it preparing for further dips as Bitcoin surges? Let us know your thoughts—will Bitcoin and gold align as Powell suggests, or will their paths diverge further? For more in-depth gold analysis and updates, stay tuned. And as always, happy trading!
TVC:GOLDShort
by InwardTrader
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 05, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen is attracting some buyers on Thursday, albeit without bullish conviction. Rising US bond yields are supporting the US dollar and lending support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders seem reluctant to make aggressive bets ahead of the release of the US NFP report on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) rises against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from the weekly low reached the previous day. Signs that Japan's core inflation is picking up continue to fuel expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again in December. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks, trade war fears and an overnight decline in US Treasury yields are contributing to the yen's gains. Meanwhile, Wednesday's remarks from a number of influential FOMC members, including Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, served as a tailwind for US bond yields and the US dollar (USD). This, along with the prevalence of risk sentiment, may curb significant strength in the safe-haven Yen and provide some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders may also refrain from aggressive directional bets ahead of the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 150.00, when fixing above consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
AUDNZD Analysis - Bullish - Trade 07AUDNZD Analysis Overview --- 1. Seasonality AUD: Strong **buy** signal for the first week of December, suggesting upward momentum. NZD: Range-bound signal, indicating weaker performance compared to AUD. Seasonality Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 2. COT Report AUD: COT RSI : Decreasing from the top but still indicates bullish positioning. COT Index : Near the top, signaling strong institutional interest in AUD. Net Non-Commercial : Increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment. NZD : COT RSI : At the bottom (0%), but overall positioning is weak. COT Index : Bottomed at 0%, reflecting limited institutional support for NZD. Net Non-Commercial : Decreasing, suggesting bearish momentum. COT Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) : AUD : Increasing, pointing to improving economic conditions. NZD : Increasing, but weaker overall impact compared to AUD. Endogenous Factors: AUD : Mix to decreasing, but seasonal strength supports AUD’s buy case. NZD : Increasing, but weaker compared to AUD. Exogenous Factors : AUDNZD exogenous signal supports a buy AUD, sell NZD bias. Fundamental Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 4. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence: Bullish divergence spotted on the 4H timeframe, signaling potential upward movement. Parallel Channel : Price is at the bottom of a bearish parallel channel, indicating possible reversal to the upside. Daily Support : Currently holding above a strong daily support zone, reinforcing the bullish setup. Technical Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- Final Bias: Buy AUDNZD All factors—seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, and technicals—align in favor of a BUY setup for AUDNZD. This pair shows potential for upward movement, supported by strong economic and technical signals.
Long
by asadamalik
GBPUSD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 031. Seasonality The GBP is range-bound during the first week of December, while the USD exhibits bearish momentum. This suggests a neutral to slightly bullish outlook for GBPUSD based on seasonality. 2. COT Report The GBP's COT RSI is also range-bound, indicating no strong directional bias. 3. Fundamental Analysis LEI The GBP Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is decreasing, while the USD LEI is increasing. Global LEI is also rising, favoring USD strength and suggesting bearish pressure on GBPUSD. Endogenous Factors GBP endogenous factors are signaling a sell, adding to the bearish sentiment for GBPUSD. Exogenous Factors Exogenous indicators for GBPUSD are also showing a decrease, further supporting a bearish outlook. 4. Technical Analysis GBPUSD is forming an ABCD pattern and is currently moving toward point D. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at point C is also coinciding with a 4-hour resistance, suggesting a potential reversal or slowdown at that level. Bias The combined analysis suggests a bearish bias for GBPUSD, with the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 4-hour resistance offering a critical point to consider for potential short entry. Trade Plan: Entry: 1.26520 SL: 1.27273 TP: 1.25769
Short
by asadamalik
3
Buy NZD/JPY Wedge BreakoutThe NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 88.23, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 89.00 2nd Support – 89.45 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
7
AUDUSD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 021. Seasonality: During the first week of December, the USD exhibits bearish momentum, while the AUD shows bullish tendencies. This combination makes AUDUSD overall bullish. 2. COT Report: The AUD's COT RSI and Index are near the top, while the USD is near the bottom, indicating potential overextension. This suggests a bearish outlook for AUDUSD. 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI The USD Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is increasing, while the AUD LEI is decreasing. Global LEI is also rising, favoring USD strength and adding a bearish tone to AUDUSD. Endogenous Factors These suggest bearish pressure for the AUD and bullish sentiment for the USD, further supporting a bearish bias. Exogenous Factors Exogenous influences, however, indicate an increase in AUDUSD, favoring a bullish trend. 4. Technical Analysis: AUDUSD is forming an ABCD pattern and is currently at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-hour chart. Additionally, there is significant resistance on the 4-hour chart, indicating potential bearish pressure from a technical standpoint. Summary The analysis presents mixed signals: seasonality and exogenous factors favor bullishness, while the COT report, LEI trends, endogenous factors, and technical resistance suggest bearish potential. Bias The combined analysis leans toward a short entry for AUDUSD. Trade Plan Entry: 0.64746 SL: 0.65130 TP: 0.64362
Short
by asadamalik