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DXY Weekly Analysis and Its Impact on Forex PairsLet's dive into today's analysis. Today, I want to share a Forex analysis with you, focusing on the DXY index. The timeframe for this analysis is weekly, but we'll also take a look at other timeframes. 🧲 Long-Term Support First, let's examine the curved trend line on the monthly timeframe, which has been significant since 2008, acting like a magnet attracting the price. This trend line is a crucial support for the dollar and has kept the overall trend of the dollar bullish for years. 🔑 Key Resistance Levels Additionally, in this timeframe, if we apply a Fibonacci extension from the previous wave, we see that the top of this wave, which corresponds to 113.7, has completed at the 1 level. If this peak is breached, we could move up to 1.618, which is 131. However, there's a significant resistance at 119.76. 📰 Interest Rates and Economic Outlook Given that the US interest rate is already high, it's unlikely to increase further beyond 5.5% as it could harm the US economy in the long term. On the other hand, inflation has reached 3.25%, nearing the 2% target. Therefore, there's no reason to raise interest rates further. If they start reducing the interest rates, we could see an uptrend in stock markets like crypto and renowned global stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, etc. If this happens, the DXY trend will turn bearish and could potentially drop back to the 89.59 support. 📅 Weekly Timeframe Analysis In the weekly timeframe, the curved trend line is also evident, and the price is near this trend. Drawing Fibonacci from the previous wave shows that the price has bounced back from the 0.5 level, overlapping with the old support at 101.195, and has created a range box between this area and the 0.236 level at 106.723, forming since late 2022. 📈 If 106.723 is breached, we could target 113.701 and the next target at 119.76. However, due to anticipated rate cuts, I believe the USD will remain bearish and won't go beyond 113. 📉 For a decline, if 101.195 breaks and the Federal Reserve starts lowering rates, we could expect a drop to the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels, which are 98.023 and 94.374, respectively. 🔎 RSI Indicator The RSI is ranging between 66.02 and 34.17. Given that FOMO is less powerful in the Forex market compared to crypto, if we reach either of these numbers, it might be time to take profits as the trend could weaken. 💵 Impact on EURUSD and USDCAD 🇪🇺 EUR/USD If the DXY drops, we might see the EUR/USD break the 1.1064 resistance, and even move towards 1.1205, and then target 1.16588 and 1.22423. However, 1.22423 seems distant and unrealistic given Europe's current strength. In case of a DXY increase, the EUR/USD could head towards the historical low of 0.96801 after breaking 1.05195, though it's likely to find support sooner. 🇨🇦 USD/CAD For USD/CAD, a rising DXY could push it to 1.43687 after breaking 1.38713. Conversely, if the DXY drops, the trend line might break, and after breaking 1.31457, it could move towards 1.20374. 📝 Conclusion In summary, the DXY index is at a critical juncture with significant supports and resistances on both the monthly and weekly timeframes. Anticipated changes in US interest rates could significantly impact its trend. While the USD may see some strength in the short term, a long-term bearish trend seems likely, particularly if interest rates begin to decrease. This will, in turn, affect major Forex pairs like EUR/USD and USD/CAD, with potential bullish moves in EUR/USD and bearish moves in USD/CAD depending on the DXY's movement. Always remember to conduct thorough research and apply sound risk management in your trading strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by itsparham96
4
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 24, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair starts the new week on a subdued note and remains within striking distance of the lowest level since mid-May reached on Friday. Spot prices are currently trading around 1.2635, with bears waiting for a sustained break and consolidation below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) before positioning for a continuation of the recent pullback from the multi-month peak. The British Pound (GBP) continues to be threatened by last week's pause by the Bank of England (BoE), which raised the stakes for an interest rate cut at its August monetary policy meeting. To add to this, the UK flash PMI indices released on Friday showed that private sector business activity in June grew at its slowest pace since November last year. This, along with some subsequent US Dollar (USD) buying, proved to be another factor weighing on the GBP/USD pair. Market participants are still considering the possibility of two interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 amid signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US. This could curb further dollar strength and limit the GBP/USD pair's decline. Traders may also refrain from aggressive directional bets ahead of the UK general election on July 4 and in the absence of any market-important macroeconomic data released on Monday. Trading recommendation: Trade in the channel 1.2620-1.2680 on the rebound from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
ASX:OFX – A Rare Gem with Perfect Piotroski Score and Breakout PFundamentals : OFX Group, listed on the ASX under the ticker OFX, presents a compelling investment opportunity this week. The company boasts a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9, an exceptionally rare achievement that underscores its financial strength and operational efficiency. Currently trading at its fair value, OFX has turned profitable over the last 12 months and is poised for continued profitability this year. ASX:OFX ASX:OFX Technicals : From a technical standpoint, OFX has achieved a significant 52-week breakout, further enhancing its investment appeal. The stock has formed a rounding bottom pattern, a classic technical signal indicating the potential for a strong upward movement. Analysts project a potential upside of 30%, making this a promising candidate for growth. A potential Setup: • Entry: Current Market Price • Stop Loss: $2.00 • Potential Upside: $2.90F
ASX:OFXLong
by hrishikeshrahalkar
BTC at crucial support - will uptrend continue ? BTC has always dictated how the market as a whole in the crypto space behaves and there is fear and indecision regarding the price of BTC, We can see that price has fallen to a crucial support level and despite being healthy movement we need to maintain the 64 K level to continue the Higher Lows and Higher Highs that upward market momentum requires. I will be looking at this area for the day and trying to decide if and where to enter the market, This may be the spot to go long and aim high, which is secretly my bias, I do enjoy a higher high and a higher low. I will be trying to gain some confirmation on taking up a position at this level and will be adding to this idea as the day(s) go by and there is relevant info to catalog
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by dasBoot
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 21, 2024 EURUSDThe US Dollar (USD) remains resilient early Friday after rising against major rivals on Thursday. Later in the day, S&P Global will release preliminary reports on manufacturing and services PMIs for Germany, the UK, the eurozone and the US for June. Ahead of the weekend, market participants will also keep a close eye on May US existing home sales data and May Canadian retail sales data. EUR/USD returned to familiar technical levels on Thursday, falling towards 1.0700 after a miss in US economic data supported the dollar. Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to 0.0% month-on-month in May, down from the previous reading of 0.2% and missing the expected rise to 0.3%. On an annualized basis, the PPI was also below expectations, falling to -2.2% for the year ending in May. While the annualized figure improved from the previous reading of -3.3%, it still fell short of the projected recovery to -2.0%. The latest US initial jobless claims data came in above expectations: 238,000 people applied for unemployment benefits in the week ended June 14, up from the previous week's revised figure of 243,000. The increase also pushed the four-week average to 242,750 from the previous 227,250. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing sector business activity index for June fell to 1.3 from 4.5, falling short of the expected 5.0. In addition, U.S. housing starts in May fell to 1.277 million new units, down from the forecast of 1.37 million and the previous month's revised figure of 1.352 million. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Buy GBP/USD Wedge BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.2710 Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.2812 2nd Resistance – 1.2905 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.2650. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Ichimoku Cloud Support: The current price sits comfortably above the Ichimoku cloud, a technical indicator that often signals bullish momentum when the price is above the cloud. Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
8
Economic Calendar: Top Market Events You Should Watch Out forMarkets tend to get especially volatile whenever there’s an economic report or some data dump that takes investors by surprise. That’s why we’re spinning up this Idea where we highlight all the major market-moving events you should watch out for when you do your trading. Today, we look at the Economic Calendar . 🏦 Central Bank Meetings and Announcements • Federal Reserve (Fed) Meetings The US Federal Reserve holds Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings roughly every six weeks,or ( eight times a year ), to talk about monetary policy, including interest rates. Setting interest rates is arguably the most significant event with long-lasting consequences for markets. Each of these meeting takes two days and wraps up with a speech by the gentleman who moves markets with a simple “Good afternoon” — Fed boss Jay Powell. • European Central Bank (ECB) Meetings Similar to the Fed, the ECB holds regular meetings to decide on monetary policy and borrowing costs for the Eurozone. ECB officials’ decisions sway financial markets, especially those based in the old continent. Indexes such as the Stoxx 600 Europe (ticker: SXXP ) and the European currency tend to fluctuate wildly during ECB events. • Bank of England (BoE) Meetings The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) frequently meets to discuss and set interest rates and other monetary matters. Decisions made by BoE policymakers mainly affect the UK corner of the financial markets. That means elevated volatility in the British pound sterling and the broad-based UK index, the FTSE 100, among other UK-based trading instruments . • Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meetings The BoJ holds policy meetings to decide on interest rates and monetary stimulus, among other central-bank topics. Until recently, the Japanese central bank was the only one to sport a negative interest rate regime . 📝 Economic Data Releases • Nonfarm Payrolls In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation Summary on the first Friday of every month. The data package includes the non-farm payroll print , which tracks how many new hires joined the workforce, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. • Consumer Price Index (CPI) Monthly CPI measures the rate of inflation at the consumer level. The reading is closely monitored by the Fed in order to gauge the temperature of the economy. A reading too hot indicates an expanding economy, and vice versa. • Producer Price Index (PPI) Similar to CPI, PPI measures inflation at the wholesale level and can provide signals about inflation trends. • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Quarterly GDP churns out a comprehensive measure of a country's economic activity and growth. • Retail Sales Monthly retail sales indicate consumer spending patterns, which are a critical component of economic activity. The data shows whether consumers pulled back from spending or splurged like there’s no tomorrow. • Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) PMI reports for manufacturing and services sectors lay out insights into business activity and economic health. 🏢 Corporate Earnings Reports Publicly traded companies around the world release earnings reports every quarter. The hottest ones are America’s corporate giants, such as tech stocks , banking stocks , and more. The quarterly earnings figures include financial performance for the most recent three months and forward-looking guidance, which comprises earnings and revenue expectations. 🌐 Geopolitical Events Political developments, such as Presidential elections, and geopolitical tensions can have immediate and significant impacts on financial markets. These events are less predictable but are closely monitored by market participants and can quickly fuel volatility across asset classes, prompting investors to shuffle their portfolio holdings. Final Considerations Pay attention to these reports, events, and economic data and you’ll get to understand what moves markets. Anytime you witness a sharp reaction in gold ( XAU/USD ) or a quick reversal in the US dollar ( DXY ), it’s likely that the underlying factor is an economic report you didn’t know about. If you do track them — which one is your favorite market report or economic news release? Let us know in the comments below!
Education
by TradingView
3
Buy GBP/CAD Double BottomThe GBP/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Double Bottom Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Double Bottom After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.7433. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.7520 2nd Resistance – 1.7573 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.7395. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
9
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 18, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound Sterling (GBP) is facing selling pressure in an attempt to extend its recovery above the round resistance level of 1.27000 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday's London session. The Pound-Dollar pair is declining as the US Dollar recovers from a small correction from a six-week high. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar against six major currencies, is holding above 105.00 as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to speak in favor of cutting interest rates only once this year. Fed policymakers want to see a decline in inflation within a few months to gain confidence in lowering interest rates. They remain wary of reigniting price pressures from premature rate cuts, even though the disinflation process has resumed after stalling in the first quarter of this year. On Monday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker emphasized that rates will remain unchanged for now to keep downward pressure on inflation in various sectors such as housing and services, particularly auto insurance and repair. As for the interest rate outlook, Harker believes that benchmark rates will be cut once this year if his economic forecast comes true, Reuters reported. On the economic front, investors will focus on the monthly U.S. retail sales data for May, which will be released at 15:30 GMT+3. Retail sales data, a rough gauge of consumer spending and a gauge of the inflation outlook, is estimated to have increased 0.3% after being unchanged in April. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
S&P 500: All-Time Highs and Potential DeclineS&P 500 (SPX) Technical Analysis The S&P 500 (SPX) has continued its bullish trend as anticipated the previous week, successfully reaching the projected target of 5450. However, it now appears poised for a potential decline. This Week's Outlook: The price is likely to experience a strong bearish correction as long as it trades below 5450, potentially reaching 5310 and 5260. However, the SPX is expected to consolidate between 5450 and 5260. Bullish Scenario: To initiate a new bullish trend, the price must close at least a 4-hour candle above 5450, targeting 5485. Sustained stability above 5450 would be required to confirm a bullish move towards 5550. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price remains below 5450, it is expected to drop towards 5345 and 5310. A further decline could see the price reaching 5260. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5450 - Resistance Levels: 5484, 5525, 5550 - Support Levels: 5372, 5320, 5261 Weekly Expected Trading Range: The anticipated movement range for this week is between the resistance at 5460 and the support at 5260. In summary, maintaining a position below 5450 suggests a bearish outlook with lower support targets in focus. Conversely, closing above 5450 could indicate a bullish reversal, aiming for higher resistance levels. Our Previous Weekly Idea: Fundamental Analysis:: Market Analysis: S&P 500 at All-Time Highs Amid Overbought Conditions Overbought Conditions Aren't a Sell Signal: A low VIX indicates an overbought condition, but it does not serve as a sell signal. Bullish Momentum in the S&P 500: The S&P 500 (SPX) is once again at all-time highs, with bullish momentum accelerating. Following a favorable interpretation of the consumer price index figures on Wednesday, the S&P 500 surged to new intraday and closing all-time highs. Fed's Impact and Market Reaction: Despite a somewhat lukewarm outcome from the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting later that day, which triggered some sell programs, the overall buying momentum remained strong. Positive Indicators Amid Overbought Conditions: Our indicators have largely remained positive throughout this phase and continue to signal bullishness. However, overbought conditions are starting to appear, which is expected given the strength of the rally.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
ZKUSDT: The Path to Millionaire StatusIn the world of cryptocurrencies, ZKUSDT stands out as a diamond in the rough. With its current price hovering around $1.11 and a staggering target of $3.87, this coin is poised for exponential growth. What sets ZKUSDT apart is not just its price potential, but its robust foundation and promising future. Despite being listed on exchanges like KuCoin, Gate.io, Bybit, and Crypto.com, ZKUSDT has yet to find its place on major platforms such as Binance and OKX. However, the fact that investment teams from these exchanges have already shown interest speaks volumes. The likelihood of ZKUSDT being listed on these giants is incredibly high, potentially catapulting its price to new heights. Technically speaking, ZKUSDT is currently in the accumulation phase on the price chart, indicating strong support and readiness for a significant upward move. The price targets illustrated on the chart underscore its immense potential. What's more, the ultimate price ceiling considered as the final target could be surpassed dramatically upon listing on major exchanges. This could turn early holders into millionaires overnight. ZKUSDT isn't just another cryptocurrency; it's a ticket to financial freedom for savvy investors. Stay tuned for what could be the most lucrative opportunity of the year. Market Mastery Media
Long
by rezamehrjuyan
1
Buy GBPAUD Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.9250. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.9333 2nd Resistance – 1.9380 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.9180. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
1
Sell NZDJPY Wedge BreakoutThe NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry : Consider entering a short position around the current price of 96.70, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 96.17 2nd Support – 95.82 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 97.20. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
1
Swing Long: Double Bottom + Higher Low + Up-Trending ChannelTechnical factors: Double bottom formed with a higher Low on the second retracement, which was also accompanied by volume accumulation. Long-term upward trend (view weekly chart). Up-trending channel in the medium-term. Well-defined risk. Low-volume node (LVN) that provides for an early/aggressive breakout entry (likely today). Fundamental Factors: WASDE yield estimates for beans this season are running high by more than two bushels per acre.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by porcupine80
Sell GBPCAD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.7518, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.7464 2nd Support – 1.7430 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.7565. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3
Canadian Dollar Historic Long(Futures) This is the CoT index of Commercials(Blue) and Retailers(Green). As you can see, Commercials are in the high extreme and Retailers are in low extreme of the index. The vertical blue lines are the past identical situations which ended up in big rallies. Plus, when the retailers net position(green area) is around -8000 (the dotted green line) resulted in rallies also. On top of that Commercials net positions(the blue area) is close to the all time high (since 2001). the last time Commercials net positions were this high was May 2017 which ended up in a BIG rally. Besides, the 15-year seasonality shows bottom of the market around the end of June and top of the market around the end of July. Keep in mind that this is the Canadian Dollar futures chart which is the inverted of USDCAD of Forex chart.
CME:6C1!Long
by XardasX
2
#HEG ltd Cup & handle pattern 20-30% upmove dega kya?HEG ltd cmp 1882, market cap 7264 cr, company is leading manufacturer and exporter of graphite electrodes. PE vs ROCE ratio is better as compared to another leading player graphite India. My concern is the fall in Operating margin trend. Holding% Dec'23 promoter 55.77( 59.62 Mar'21), FII 6.85(9.43 Mar'21), DII 8.85(7.41 Mar'21). Infact some new mutual fund players entered in feb'24 also so Mar'24 DII numbers should be up. Technically the chart is making cup n handle kind of pattern on weekly time frame and breakout above 1931 can bring fast movement. Upside levels can be 1)2335 2) 2470 3) 2575 4) 2763(imp level) 5) 3108. Once 2763 is crossed I will bring sl of remaining qty at 2470 and try to ride the trend till 3661/4557.
NSE:HEGLong
by ssudhirsharma11
3
Crowdstrike pushing towards all time highs!Crowdstrike has been in a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2023. Pullbacks were generally short-lived, and the trend accelerated early this year. CRWD reached its ATH in March, surpassing the 300 mark it reached in 2021. A significant consolidation occurred after that, but it seems like the bulls have garnered sufficient strength to test 360 again, after failing to breach the level 2 weeks ago, and maybe push the stock to new highs. The stock's 7% jump after beating the Q1 earnings estimate proved to be a perfect launchpad for this, CRWD is now trading above the 50, 100 & 200 SMA again. Should the 360 mark be broken, traders can start looking up to the 400$ mark. Fundamentally speaking, the threat of novel cybersecurity attacks is unfortunately not going to go away. Black hats are developing smarter-than-ever malware. To the eyes of many, Crowdstrike's AI-boosted cloud-based cybersec solutions offer powerful counters to those threats, so it is probably unlikely that Crowdstrike will see a sharp drop in demand in the near future as companies and their IT-teams are still catching up. According to the IDC (International Data Corporation) GenAI (Generative AI) in the cybersecurity market is growing at a CAGR of 23.6% and projects that it will reach a $46.3 billion market value by 2027. Stay safe out there and trade responsibly!
NASDAQ:CRWDLong
by WHSelfInvest
Sell EURAUD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.6336, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.6282 2nd Support – 1.6242 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.6390. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3