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WHERE IS BITCOIN BOTTOM??Hey everyone! If you're enjoying this analysis, a thumbs up and follow would be greatly appreciated!** Where's the Bottom for Bitcoin (BTC)? The big question on everyone's mind: where is the bottom for Bitcoin (BTC)? While predicting the absolute bottom is impossible, we can analyze different factors to make informed decisions. Here's a breakdown of three key areas: Technical Analysis: Looking at the past 4 months, BTC has traded within a range of $56k to $73k. The daily chart suggests a possible bull flag pattern forming. The $56k-$60k zone provides strong support. Holding above this level could indicate a potential breakout from the bull flag. Fundamental Analysis: Negative news circulating in the market, like the German government selling Bitcoin and Mt. Gox creditor payouts, can create temporary downward pressure. However, it's important to remember that these events can also present buying opportunities during market dips. Market Sentiment: Fear and uncertainty can grip traders during downturns. The Fear and Greed Index reaching extreme fear might signal a potential bottom, but it's not a guaranteed indicator. Important Takeaways: Predicting the absolute bottom is not possible. Diversification and Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Consider spreading out your investments (DCA) across different projects to manage risk. This approach can help you average out your buying price over time. What are your thoughts on BTC's current price action? What are you watching in the altcoin market? Share your analysis in the comments below! Thanks!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by CoreCrypto1
Sell GBP/USD Rising Wedge BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.2755, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2680 2nd Support – 1.2637 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.2785. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
10
Nikkei Soars Looking Past Monetary NormalizationUltra-loose BoJ policy and the Yen’s demise have been key drivers of the JPN225 mammoth rally. The central bank exited its negative rates regime though and is shifting towards less easy policies, with at least one more hike reasonable within the year. This threatens to cut off a key source of strength for equities and JPN22 registered a brief pullback from the March record peak. But monetary normalization has been slow so far and the stock market’s strength is based on more factors than just favorable monetary stance and weak currency. Strong earnings, structural reforms and investment-friendly government policies are among them. As a result, JPN225 has resumed its advance and runs its third straight profitable month, trying to set new all-time highs. On the other hand, the RSI reached overbought levels and a pullback here would be reasonable. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225Long
by FXCM
Technical Analysis for GBP/USD on 8-Hour Time FrameFUNDAMENTAL REASONS The UK economy is experiencing sluggish growth, with recent GDP data indicating minimal expansion due to Brexit-related uncertainties and global economic headwinds. UK inflation is at 3.1%, above the Bank of England's (BoE) target of 2%, putting pressure on consumer spending. The unemployment rate is 4.0%, with stable employment but slow wage growth failing to keep up with inflation. The US economy remains robust, with Q1 GDP growth at 2.5%, supported by strong consumer spending and business investment. US inflation is at 3.8%, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, prompting aggressive monetary tightening. The unemployment rate is low at 3.6%, indicating a tight labor market and strong job creation. Interest Rates: The BoE has raised interest rates to 4.5% to combat high inflation. Further hikes may be on the horizon if inflation persists. Monetary Policy: The BoE has ended QE but continues reinvesting in maturing assets. Interest Rates: The Fed has increased rates to 5.25% to address inflation, with more hikes possible based on economic data. Monetary Tightening: The Fed is reducing its balance sheet through quantitative tightening (QT), affecting liquidity. Brexit: Ongoing Brexit adjustments and trade negotiations continue to create economic uncertainties for the UK. US-China Relations: Tensions between the US and China influence global trade and economic stability, impacting both the UK and US. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: The conflict has led to higher energy prices, disproportionately affecting the UK’s economy due to its energy import dependency. Technical Analysis Current Price Action Current Price: 1.2700 (as of the latest 4-hour close) Previous Close: 1.2720 Range: 1.2680 - 1.2730 Trend Analysis Short-Term Trend: Downtrend Medium-Term Trend: Sideways/Range-bound Long-Term Trend: Uptrend (based on daily time frame analysis) Moving Averages 20-Period EMA: 1.2710 (price slightly below, indicating short-term weakness) 50-Period SMA: 1.2735 (price below, confirming short-term downtrend) 200-Period SMA: 1.2600 (price above, indicating long-term strength) Support and Resistance Levels Immediate Support: 1.2680 (recent swing low) Key Support: 1.2600 (200-period SMA and psychological level) Immediate Resistance: 1.2730 (recent swing high and 50-period SMA) Key Resistance: 1.2800 (psychological level and previous resistance zone) Technical Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): 45 (neutral, but close to oversold territory) MACD: Bearish crossover, histogram below zero (indicating bearish momentum) Stochastic Oscillator: Near oversold zone, potential for bullish reversal if it crosses upwards Volume Analysis Volume Trend: Decreasing volume on recent declines, suggesting weakening selling pressure Volume Spikes: No significant volume spikes, indicating lack of strong conviction in either direction Fibonacci Retracement Levels Recent High: 1.2810 Recent Low: 1.2600 Key Levels: 23.6% Retracement: 1.2665 38.2% Retracement: 1.2695 50% Retracement: 1.2705 (current price near this level) 61.8% Retracement: 1.2720 Conclusion Bearish Bias: Given the price below key moving averages, bearish MACD, and potential head and shoulders pattern. Support and Resistance Play: Watch for a break below 1.2680 for a potential move towards 1.2600. Alternatively, a break above 1.2730 could signal a retest of 1.2800. Risk Management: Use stop-loss orders below 1.2680 if long and above 1.2730 if short to manage risk.
Short
by The_Golden_Path
6
Tesla’s Post-Deliveries Surge Stretched from an EV StandpointTesla is having a rough year, being the underperformer of the Magnificent Seven group, as its peers surge. But the stock soared to new 2024 highs after the Q2 delivery report showed a substantial sequential increase, gaining more than 20% this week. Bulls are now back on the driver’s seat and have the opportunity to chase last year’s peak (299.29), although the record highs are distant. However, this surge is hard to justify from a purely EV prospective. Tesla may have offloaded some of its inflated inventory in Q2, but deliveries were lower than a year ago, just as sales of Chinese rival BYD surged. Demand has weakened despite price cuts, the futuristic Cybertruck is not for mass production (and not for everyone) and we still have not gotten an update of the aging Model Y, which was the best-selling car of 2023. At the same time, there is some uncertainty around the crucial 25K affordable car that could accelerate sales and EV adoption, although it’s a price point where Tesla may have a hard time competing against Chinese firms. Given these factors and the fact that the stock rally is stretched, a return below the EMA200 would not be surprising. This would create risk for new 2024 lows (138.80), but sustained weakness has a higher degree of difficulty. Tesla at this point seems like a somewhat overvalued car maker, but an undervalued Artificial Intelligence company. At least part of the market optimism must be based on the AI promise. Elon Musk is preaching AI as the future of the firm, in a technology with the potential to unlock tremendous value as Tesla definitely has an edge, given the vast amounts pf proprietary data it collects from sources like the cameras and sensors in the hundreds of thousands of vehicles it has sold. The CEO pushes hard on full self-driving and robotaxis, with announcements expected in August, as well as humanoid robots and envisions more than a thousand of them working at Tesla factories next year. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by FXCM
Buy GBPUSD Wedge BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 1.2660, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2737 2nd Support – 1.2803 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.2600. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
25
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 03, 2024 EURUSDThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to suffer losses on Wednesday, remaining near a low of 161.750, a level not seen since 1986, recorded in the previous session. The decline may be attributed to final data indicating that business activity in Japan began to contract in June. Market participants are focused on the possibility of currency intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which could support the Japanese Yen and limit the growth of the USD/JPY pair. Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to a near 13-year high of 1.11%. Traders continue to assess the outlook for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy amid a sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen, which raises the cost of imports and contributes to inflationary pressures. In addition, the central bank announced plans to unveil a strategy to wind down its bond buying program in July. The US dollar (USD) halted its four-day losing streak thanks to a rebound in the 2-year Treasury bond yield, which is at 4.75% at the time of writing. Traders await the release of the ADP US employment change data, ISM Services PMI for June and the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for Wednesday. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 161.750, and if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions. On the rebound take Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
SIGA Technologies Analysis 6/24Disclosure: As of 6/24 I am long SIGA Technologies NASDAQ:SIGA SIGA Technologies is a bio pharmaceuticals company that is in the public health market. They develop and sell products to treat Smallpox, Ebola, and other public health threats. Management Effectiveness: The company has been consistently profitable since 2018, with margins averaging 30%-40% in recent years with only a few unprofitable quarters. Very quickly after the company became profitable they brought the debt to essentially nothing. In recent years the company's return on equity has been above 25%, indicating their research spending is used effectively. The company has a large cash position for potential investment in research. Valuation The company trade at a P/E of 6 and a p/cf of 8 they have paid special dividends for several years and could potentially implement a stock buyback program, at least that is something I would be considering if I were a board member (Disclosure: I am not a board member obviously). Summary NASDAQ:SIGA is a well run company, trading at an excellent valuation if you are willing to take the risk of a concentrated portfolio of products and volatile returns. They have several positive tailwinds including: International Expansion, Re-Valuation of the company due to implementation of a dividend or buyback policy, and increased public health awareness by international governments.
NASDAQ:SIGALong
by sihen999
4
Assessing Forex Dynamics: EUR/USD Analysis📅 Let's dive into today's analysis. We're focusing on the EUR/USD pair, which shows the value of the Euro against the US Dollar. This analysis will help us understand whether the US or European economy is stronger. 🧩 To better compare these currencies, it's helpful to also consider the DXY chart. For a full DXY analysis, you can find the link in the description. In that analysis, I mentioned that the DXY is likely to trend downward in the long term because the interest rate has reached 5.5%, which is quite high. The US might soon need to start lowering interest rates. However, since the inflation target in the US is 2%, the interest rate could reach 6% to control the current 3.3% inflation and bring it down to 2%. 💶 On the other hand, the economic situation in Europe is better than in the US, with both better interest rates and lower inflation. The average interest rate in Europe is 3.75%, and the average inflation rate is 2.4%. So, if the US eventually begins to lower its interest rate, the EUR/USD could start moving upwards. 🔍 Let's look at the chart. In the weekly timeframe, we see a downtrend in the High Wave Cycle, which is currently undergoing a correction up to 0.618. In the Medium Wave Cycle, within the downtrend correction, there's an uptrend that, after reaching 0.618 of our larger cycle, entered a correction phase down to 0.5. Currently, in the Low Wave Cycle, we are ranging, and we need to see whether the HWC or MWC will dominate to determine the next market move. 🧲 In the LWC, there's also a descending trendline that has brought the price down to the middle of the range box, and now the price is at 1.06245. This trendline could start a bearish momentum, but since it formed within a range box, it's unreliable. 📉 If 1.06245 is broken, the price could move down to 1.05195. A break of 106.723 in the DXY could confirm this breakdown. If the 0.5 area, which overlaps with 1.05195, is broken, the price could move to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. However, since the HWC is bearish, the downtrend might be much more significant. 📈 If the trendline is broken to the upside, after the trigger, we can expect the price to move to the top of the range box. In the DXY, a break of 104.5 could be suitable for confirmation. The main long trigger is 1.10464. The first barrier for the price is 1.12015, overlapping with the 0.618 level, which might hold the price for a few weeks. But if this area is surpassed, the price could move to 1.16558. 🎲 Moving to the daily timeframe, there's a gently sloping ascending trendline supporting the price, and a compression has formed in recent days. There's a hidden static line, not immediately apparent, but I've marked it in black on the chart. 📈 For a long position, we can enter riskily upon breaking 1.07370, but as I mentioned, it's a risky position, so the risk taken should be less than usual. The next long trigger is 1.09023, and if this trigger breaks, we can move to 1.11055. The final long trigger is the break of the range box top at 1.11055. 📉 For a short position, we first need to wait for the ascending trendline to break and then for 1.06687 to break. In this case, we can move to 1.06136, the main trigger for breaking the trend. Breaking this support can take us to the bottom of the range box. The third short trigger is breaking the bottom of the range box at 1.04610. 📝In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair is at a crucial juncture with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on key trigger levels. Keep an eye on economic indicators from both the US and Europe, and use strict risk management strategies to navigate the market. 🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in forex trading. Adhere to strict capital management principles, use stop-loss orders, and aim for an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a currency pair you'd like me to analyze next.
Long
by itsparham96
4
Sell EUR/USD Bearish ChannelThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0700, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0653 2nd Support – 1.0634 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0730. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
21
AUD/USD - H1 Chart - Wedge BreakoutThe AUD/USD FX:AUDUSD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 0.6644, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.6611 2nd Support – 0.6590 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.6663. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
12
Sell GBP/USD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.2675, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2635 2nd Support – 1.2610 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.2703. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
23
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 27, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair pulled back to the 1.06800 area on Wednesday after the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for July unexpectedly declined, while a lack of meaningful data during the U.S. trading session left investors chewing over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious stance this week. Germany's consumer confidence reading for July fell to -21.8, falling short of forecasts for a recovery to -18.9 from the previous month's revised reading of -21.0. Despite a slow and steady recovery in the German GfK consumer confidence survey, Wednesday's downbeat publication knocked the legs out from under an already battered euro. The change in U.S. new home sales in May recorded a -11.3% month-over-month decline on Wednesday (2.0%), sharply revised from the initial reading of -4.7%. U.S. GDP for the quarter is expected to rise slightly to 1.4% from an initial reading of 1.3%, while May durable goods orders are expected to contract by -0.1% from a revised 0.6% in the prior month. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21 are expected to fall slightly to 236k from the previous reading of 238k, but the figure is expected to be above the four-week average of 232.75k. Market confidence that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut rates on September 18 has declined. The probability of a rate cut of at least a quarter point fell to 60%, down from a peak of just above 70% last week, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell NZD/JPY Channel BreakoutThe NZD/JPY pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 97.55, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 96.95 2nd Support – 96.53 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 97.95. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3
75: Identifying Support around €13.36 Amidst Selling PressureCurrently, we are witnessing selling pressure on the Fastned stock without significant buying interest. However, by examining historical data, we can identify a point of interest around the €13.36 level. This area has previously acted as a support zone, making it a potential accumulation point. Recent developments support this analysis. Fastned recently raised €32.9 million through the issuance of new bonds, with €12.3 million coming from existing investors extending their bond maturities. This successful fundraising indicates a growing interest and confidence from private investors in Fastned’s long-term potential. Given this backdrop, we anticipate that the €13.36 level could attract accumulation as investors recognize the company's ongoing investments in the fast-charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. As more motorists transition to electric vehicles, the demand for Fastned's services is expected to increase, potentially driving the stock's recovery. Monitor the €13.36 level closely for signs of accumulation and potential buying opportunities, considering the growing interest and financial backing Fastned is receiving.
EURONEXT:FAST
by SeventyFive-Invest