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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 25, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continues its uptrend against the US dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive session, staying near the 12-week high of 152.640 set on Thursday. The yen's strengthening is likely due to traders unwinding asset trades ahead of next week's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week, which will force short sellers to cover their positions and strengthen the yen. In addition, the BOJ is expected to outline plans to reduce its bond purchases to scale back its massive monetary stimulus. On Wednesday, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and chief currency diplomat Masato Kanda avoided commenting on currency issues, causing the USD/JPY pair to fall to its lowest level in two months, according to Reuters. The U.S. dollar may strengthen as the latest U.S. PMI data showed an acceleration in private sector activity growth in July, underscoring the resilience of U.S. growth despite higher interest rates. The data gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) more leeway to maintain restrictive policy if inflation shows no signs of easing. Investors are expected to keep a close eye on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) annualized (Q2) data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation on Friday. These reports are expected to provide new insights into the US economic situation. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Insider Knowledge: Exploiting the House Money EffectIntroduction In trading and investing, psychological biases significantly influence decision-making. One such bias is the "House Money Effect." Understanding this effect can help traders avoid common pitfalls and take advantage of this phenomenon. What is the House Money Effect? The House Money Effect is a psychological phenomenon where individuals are more likely to take risks with money they have won rather than their initial capital. In trading, this means traders become more risk-tolerant after experiencing gains, treating profits as "house money" and taking on higher risks than they would with their own capital. Why Does It Happen? The House Money Effect occurs due to several psychological factors: Mental Accounting : People tend to treat money differently based on its source. Profits are often seen as less valuable than initial capital. Overconfidence : After a winning streak, traders may become overconfident in their abilities, leading to riskier trades. Loss Aversion : Gains are perceived as a buffer, reducing the fear of losses and encouraging riskier behavior. Example of the House Money Effect on Crypto In the 2021 Crypto Bull Market, we saw Bitcoin soar to all time highs. This subsequently caused many altcoins to rally really hard resulting in some 100-500x and numerous 2-3x tokens. If you observed at what point in the timeline this happened, this happened towards the end of the bull run, when everyone already knew about crypto and everybody was seemingly getting rich by buying cryptocurrencies. This was the peak of retail activity, which includes newcomers as well as those who got rich from holding tokens earlier. This is a perfect example of the phenomenon with several key characteristics Was after a period of extreme gains Was causing risk assets to outperform, suggesting a higher risk tolerance in the market Immediately after the markets tanked, clearly indicating this was a massive retail loss By understanding and spotting the House Money Effect, traders can better manage their emotions and make more rational trading decisions. Recognizing this bias is the first step toward mitigating its impact and maintaining a disciplined trading strategy. We hope you enjoyed reading this idea.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by AlgoAlpha
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 24, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to rise for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, likely due to the return of risk-off-oriented flows. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates at next week's policy meeting, prompting short sellers to exit their positions and lending support to the Japanese Yen. A senior ruling party official, Toshimitsu Motegi, called on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to more clearly outline its plan to normalize monetary policy by gradually raising interest rates, according to Reuters. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida added that normalizing the central bank's monetary policy will facilitate Japan's transition to a growth-oriented economy. The U.S. dollar (USD) is facing challenges due to rising expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September, putting pressure on the USD/JPY pair. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is 93.6%, up from 88.5% a day earlier. Traders await the release of U.S. purchasing managers' index (PMI) data on Wednesday and annualized gross domestic product (GDP) (Q2) on Thursday. The data is expected to provide new insights into the US economic situation. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 23, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD fluctuated just below 1.09000 on Monday as the new trading week started on a rather weak note. There will be little meaningful data in the first half of the trading week, so traders will have to be on the lookout for key Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Wednesday in both the EU and the US. Things will remain roughly flat on Monday and Tuesday, with markets looking ahead to the start of the week's calendar of meaningful economic data on Wednesday. Tuesday will see the release of average US existing home sales data for June. EUR/USD traders will focus on Wednesday's double block of purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. The EU Manufacturing and Services PMI for July is expected to rise slightly, while the Services PMI for the month is expected to come in at 53.0, up from 52.8 in the previous month. On Wednesday, the US will release its own PMI data. Forecast models predict that the July US Services PMI will fall to 54.4 from the previous reading of 55.3. Thursday will continue the trend of important data releases from the U.S., particularly the second quarter 2024 annualized gross domestic product (GDP). The trading week will end on Friday with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which will provide key US inflation data. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.09000. If consolidate above it, take Buy positions, on the rebound take Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Summary of Bullish Outlook for (WTI) OilSeveral factors are contributing to a bullish outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in the near future: 1. **Rising Global Demand**: As major economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial and transportation activities are increasing, particularly in Asia with significant contributions from China and India. 2. **Production Cuts**: OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) continue to implement production cuts to stabilize and boost oil prices, preventing significant declines. 3. **Declining Oil Inventories**: Recent reports show a notable decrease in oil inventories in the United States and other countries, indicating higher consumption and demand in the market. 4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Instability in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East and North Africa can lead to supply concerns and price increases. 5. **Investment in Alternative Energies**: While the long-term shift to renewable energy sources may reduce oil demand, short-term transitions and policy changes can cause price volatility and increases. ### Conclusion Given these factors, the outlook for WTI oil prices is bullish. Investors and analysts should closely monitor these dynamics to make informed decisions in the oil market.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Cryptowormshot
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 22, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) remains weak on Monday, extending its losing streak to a third straight session. Traders are preparing for next week's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, which may consider an interest rate hike to support the yen. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said normalizing the central bank's monetary policy will help Japan's transition to a growth-oriented economy, according to Nikkei Asia. Speculative short yen positions, which had risen to their second-highest level, began to shrink after Japan's anticipated yen buying intervention this month surprised the market. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, yen short positions held by market participants such as hedge funds totaled 151,072 contracts as of Tuesday. This represents a decline of 30,961 contracts from the previous week and is the biggest decline since May 7, when short positions declined by 33,466 contracts, according to another report from Nikkei Asia. The USD/JPY pair may limit its gains as the U.S. dollar (USD) faces challenges from rising bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September and lingering concerns about the volatility of the U.S. labor market. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is 91.7%, up from 90.3% a week earlier. Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 157.500, and on the rebound we take Sell positions.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sei Network, $SEI Daily Chart of Sei/TetherUS*Chart shown above is Sei's historical price chart and past events embedded, including max ROI and distance from ATH. #1 – Sei Network, TSXV:SEI - Weekly Chart of Near Protocol/TetherUS ❔ Overview *Sei is a general-purpose, open-source Layer 1 blockchain specialized for the exchange of digital assets. Sei is one of the fastest blockchains in the industry, leveraging a novel consensus and technical breakthroughs. Rank: #76 MarketCap: $1.25B Sector: DEX, Layer 1, NFT Network Compatibility: Cosmos and Sei Top Markets - Binance and WhiteBIT Year Founded: 2022 ❓ ICO Details •First ICO conducted last August 31, 2020, raising $45M •Seed Sale price of 1 SEI = 0.005 USD •Returns since first ICO: 79x •Average ATH of $1.14 with max ROI of 228x, currently 66% from the ATH Competitor: EURONEXT:ALGO at $1.30B Major Competitor: CRYPTOCAP:ETH at $421B Check them out! Website - www.sei.io Linktree - linktr.ee (Nothing is FA and post is purely informational.) Sharing this post is highly appreciated. 🫡 Safe trades! 👌 📮 July 21, 2024
by Lonesome11
1
Sell EUR/CAD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.4932, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.4880 2nd Support – 1.4853 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.4965. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
2
SGX: CY6U Capitaland India Trust AnalysisDisclosure: As of 07/12/2024 I have no open position in SGX: CY6U Capitaland India Trust is a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) that invests in commercial real estate across India. They invest in office, data center, and logistics properties. Their portfolio is diversified across 5 major cities in India. In order of exposure: Hyderabad, Bangalor, Chennai, Pune, and Mumbai. One risk to be aware of is the currency fluctuations of INR to SGD as well as the currency in you home country may affect returns. The company is highly profitable and looks to have manageable debt positions. Their debt is based in both SGD and INR. The largest tenant of CY6U is Tata Consultancy Services, making up a total of 12% of base rents. The next largest are Infosys and Amazon at 6% and 4% respectively. The company has a strong record of performance both in terms of profitability and return on investment. Debt levels appear to be manageable and management very competent. ***Please Note: Debt to equity shown in the chart is out of date. Check most recent reports on CY6U investor relations for current debt levels*** The company is currently trading below book value and has a P/E of less than 10. With a dividend yield of 6% you have an earnings and dividend return of 15%. This is not including any potential growth the company may experience in its earnings or asset value. Summary: Capitaland India Trust seems to be a quality company that is likely undervalued. Potentially due to the fact it is listed in Singapore as opposed to in India. Considering the growth in India buying this high quality assets below book value looks very appealing. I will update with further research and if I open a position.
SGX:CY6ULong
by sihen999
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 12, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair fluctuated between weak gains and minor losses around the 1.29000 mark during the Asian session on Friday and remains within striking distance of the yearly peak reached the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) is attracting some buyers on the back of a good rise in US Treasury yields and is moving away from the near three-month low reached the day before, which in turn acts as a headwind for GBP/USD. Meanwhile, weaker US consumer inflation data released on Thursday raised market bets on the imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut cycle in September. This could curb a significant rise in U.S. bond yields. In addition, the prevailing risk-on bias may deter traders from aggressively bullish bets on the safe-haven Dollar. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues to receive support from data released on Thursday that the UK economy grew at a faster-than-expected 0.4% in May. This comes on the back of recent comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers that dashed hopes of a rate cut in August. On Wednesday, Bank of England MPC member Catherine Mann said that until there is a slowdown in service price growth, she would not advocate an interest rate cut. To add to this, Hugh Pill, the Bank of England's chief economist, noted that there is still some work to be done before the domestic permanent component of inflation disappears. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems to be leaning in favor of the bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair lies to the upside. Thus, any significant corrective decline could still be seen as a buying opportunity and is likely to remain limited. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to end a third consecutive week in the green. Traders now await the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey due later in the North American session, looking for short-term opportunities on the last day of the week. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/CAD Triangle BreakoutThe USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.3630 Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3592 2nd Support – 1.3572 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3650. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Thank you
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
1
$USIRYY -CPI# *M print (post AA+)- Awaiting CPI# numbers readings for ECONOMICS:USIRYY on August 10th (today) post US being Down-Graded to AA +. While on the 9th of August ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came deflationary on the other side of the world Consensus sits at 3.1% (0.1% increase) and some to 0.3% increase at 3.3% for ECONOMICS:USIRYY Economists forecast Inflation rising up again on a steady pace for the rest of 2023 and the entering of 2024 for coming down YoY from 9.1% to 3% On the last ECONOMICS:USINTR Rate Hike Decisions following a Month of Breath, our pal, Jerome Powell stated during his speech regarding Fed's seeing inflation coming up on months to come not being total uder control. This was aswell one of many reasons they didn't felt confident to stop the Rate Hiking . He aswell stated that Federal Reserve does not see Inflation coming down to their Target Norm of 2% CPI by 2025, and they fimrly prompt a 'Soft Landing'. How about another joke, Powell ! It's not about Money , its about sending a Message . Everything Burn ... TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice Please do your own research and consult your own financial advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this idea.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
5
CDSL | Flagpole | NSDL Files for IPO • NSDL has filed its DHRP, leading to market concerns that investors might shift their funds to NSDL, potentially affecting CDSL. (We'll be sharing a detailed comparison for NSDL and CDSL in the comments section below. Feel free to follow us for the updates.) Now CDSL: • In the last 13 months, it's formed a beautiful Flag Pole pattern. The breakout of which is already done. • The 1000 level + 50% Fibo level provided support during its momentum. • Volumes increased during the rally, which is a positive sign. • It faces a crucial resistance zone the break and sustenance of which will be necessary. • Now if you are worried about the funds flowing to NSDL, Remember what happened to BSE when NSE announced its IPO – it literally doubled in value. NSDL's valuation will play a crucial role in boosting CDSL's momentum. • Duopolies, like Ola and Uber, Airtel and Jio, Swiggy and Zomato, Amazon and Flipkart, tend to fare well. CDSL and NSDL too can coexist. • Do you know who else can and must Coexist? YOU and WE! Follow us for such interesting Case studies. Have Insights or Questions? Let us know in the comments below.👇 While you do that, how about a boost for some motivation 🚀 ⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
NSE:CDSL
by TheChartereds
3
I think it might be safe to sell soon (temporarily, at least) If we look to the left, gold would have completely reversed the move it created last week Friday for NFP. Thus gold has now gone somewhat bearish which means sellers are interested. If you look at the area circled (in purple) there would have been sellers interested at that level. Gold literally just took out that area. Any sellers who had sold around the circled area would have likely had stops above that level and now would be no more. HOWEVER, The reason I said it may be safe to sell (SOON) is because of this, the fact that price is coming back up again, if it were safe to sell, it wouldn't be coming back up to give traders a better opportunity to sell. Due to this I'd be extra careful of selling OR buying at this time.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Brandon_evo4
Historically Warm Weather to Support Natural Gas PricesAfter the second quarter relief rally and the five-month peak, Natural Gas registered a four-week decline. This has shifted bias to the downside again, creating scope for further losses towards 1.940. However, a look at the daily chart shows that NGAS tries to react at the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. Furthermore, a Golden Cross (EMA50 crossing above the EMA200) has been formed, which is often viewed as a precursor of sustained growth. This technical formation compliments the favorable fundamentals, as demand is set to increase this year, while key drillers lower their activity. Although the world shifts to renewables, Natural Gas is seen a bridge fuel facilitating this transition. Furthermore, it is heavily used in electricity generation, being the top source in the US and No2 globally. June was the thirteenth straight month of record high temperatures according to Copernicus, which can provide another tailwind for energy demand during the summer months. This in turn can increase Natural gas consumption and support prices. As a result, NGAS can reclaim the EMA200 that would give control to the bulls and the ability to push for the June peak (3.164). The upside contains multiple technical roadblocks though and there are risks to the upbeat supply-demand dynamics. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:NGASLong
by FXCM
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 09, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair briefly tested a fresh four-week high on Monday, rising above 1.28400 before broad market flows pushed cable back down to the week's opening prices just above 1.28000. UK data remains sparse this week, with traders' expectations facing an overly cautious Federal Reserve (Fed). Fed speakers are pushing for further signs that US inflation is easing to reach the Fed's 2% annual inflation target. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make the first of two appearances this week when he presents the Fed's latest semi-annual monetary policy report to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. Fed Chairman Powell will then repeat his appearance when he testifies before the US House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. Key US inflation data will be released later this week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming out on Thursday and the Wholesale Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. Traders hoping for further easing in inflation to push the Fed to cut rates sooner may be disappointed later in the week as the CPI and PPI inflation forecasts will either remain unchanged or rise slightly. UK data is also limited this week, with various speeches from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers scheduled for Wednesday and the results of the industrial and manufacturing activity survey on Thursday. UK industrial and manufacturing output is expected to rise in May after a slight contraction in the previous month. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.28000, on the rebound take Buy positions. If we consolidate below, take Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004