Get started

Fundamental-analysis

USDJPY Vulnerable on Monetary Policy DynamicsThe pair is heading towards its second straight losing month, due to the shift in monetary policy dynamics, which could fuel further losses and new 2024 lows towards 140.26. Chair Powell offered the strongest signal to date of a September pivot, bolstering market optimism for multiple rate cuts ahead. The bank of Japan is on the opposite direction, trying to make policy less loose. Stepping up its effort, it raised rates for second time in this cycle and pointed to more moves, while Governor Ueda stack to script last week. On the other hand, Mr Powell did not offer any insights around the size and pace of rate cuts, while market pricing for four moves this year is stretched. The BoJ’s latest rate hike meanwhile sparked volatility and forced the bank to pledge to not hike again while markets are unstable. Furthermore, the rate differential will still be wide even if the BoJ hikes again and the Fed cuts more than once. As such, a recovery effort would not be surprising, but the EMA200 (black line) and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the recent slump can cap the upside. Sustained strength above this resistance confluence does not easy under the current policy dynamics. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 26, 2024 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair continues to rise for the second session, trading near 1.11900 during the Asian session on Monday. The rise in EUR/USD is attributed to the decline in the US dollar following a dovish speech by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated, “The time has come for policy adjustment.” Although Powell did not specify when the rate cut would begin or what its potential size would be, markets expect the U.S. central bank to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its September meeting. In addition, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker emphasized on Friday the need for the U.S. central bank to gradually lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that monetary policy is currently as restrictive as possible and the Fed is now focused on achieving its employment mandate. As for the euro, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Friday that slowing inflation along with weakness in the eurozone economy strengthen the case for lower borrowing costs next month, Bloomberg reported. Growth prospects in Europe, especially in the manufacturing sector, are quite weak, strengthening the case for a rate cut in September. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Buy Gbp/Usd Bullish FlagThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent formation of Bullish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 1.3100, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3171 2nd Support – 1.3207 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
23
Golden predictions come true!Gold prices (XAUUSD) have reached a new all-time high, surpassing $2,550 per ounce for the first time in history. Our long-term forecast from April 18, 2024, is coming true, with gold rising over $120 per ounce and steadily pushing towards new records! Factors driving gold prices and expert opinions: - Major central bank purchases: Gold prices are rising due to significant metal purchases by central banks, boosting its value. - Geopolitical instability: Increased geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, is driving demand for gold as a safe haven. Ongoing conflicts in various regions also contribute to the rising prices. - Fed rate cut expectations: Investors anticipate a potential rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, making gold a more attractive option. According to CME, there's a 75.5% probability of a rate reduction from the current 5.25–5.5% to 5–5.25%, enhancing gold's appeal. - Growth projections: Analysts at ING and other financial institutions predict that gold prices will peak in the fourth quarter of this year, potentially reaching $2,700 per ounce by year-end and $3,000 in the long term.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Will the revision of the NFP help support the Gold price?Macro theme: - At the Jul meeting, most policymakers suggested easing policy in Sep would be appropriate if the data aligned with expectations. - Bets on more rate cuts grew after US Nonfarm Payrolls were revised down to 820K, raising doubts about the labor market's resilience to higher rates. - Investors are now waiting for Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday for guidance on the interest rate outlook, keeping markets stable for now. - Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drive gold prices higher. Technical theme: - XAUUSD is still trading above the EMA21, indicating solid upward momentum persists. - If XAUUSD extends its gain, we can watch the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is around 2555. - On the contrary, if XAUUSD retraces before continuing, we must watch for 2480 and a lower level at 2431 before attempting any go-with-trend trades.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DatTong
ALPHAGEO Strong Fundamental Turn-Around Story NSE:ALPHAGEO ...................................................................................................................... ...................................................................................................................... Incorporated in 1987, Alphageo Ltd provides Geophysical Seismic Data Acquisition, Processing and Interpretation Services for exploration of hydrocarbons and minerals ...................................................................................................................... ...................................................................................................................... Company is almost debt free. Stock is trading at 1.03 times its book value. Company is expected to give good quarter. Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 473%. ...................................................................................................................... ...................................................................................................................... Due to effect of monsoon in several parts of India, only 4 seismic crews worked in the month of October 2019, with an addition of another 5 crews in the month of November 2019. The NSP Project on Sedimentary Basins of of Ganga-Punjab Area with Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. has been completed in the first week of January 2020. • The field acquisition stage of the Project of Geophysical Mapping Survey for mineral exploration with Geological Survey of India has been completed. The processing, interpretation and submission of deliverables is in progress. • The Project for MECL is completed during the quarter ended 31st December, 2019 • No new orders were received during the quarter under review. • Order on hand as on 31st December, 2019: INR 160 Cr (inclusive of taxes)
NSE:ALPHAGEOLong
by iism-ExpertTrading
Buy GBP/CAD Bullish Pennant The GBP/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Pennant pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 1.7705, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.7763 2nd Support – 1.7796 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) Bullish ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2516, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2551 2nd Support – 2573 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
1
Buy GBP/CHF Bullish PennantThe GBP/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Pennant pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 1.1195, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.1273 2nd Support – 1.1301 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
4
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 16, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) bounced back against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, possibly due to Japan's recent second quarter GDP growth, which supports the possibility of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike in the near future. However, the Yen could face challenges from political uncertainty in Japan due to reports that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will not seek re-election as party leader in September, effectively ending his term as Prime Minister. The USD/JPY pair is declining as the US dollar loses ground amid lower Treasury yields. In addition, traders are fully pricing in the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. However, the dollar received support as recent better-than-expected US economic data eased market fears of a US recession. In addition, later in the North American session, preliminary data on Michigan consumer sentiment index for August and building permits for July will be released. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 14, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair is trading on a flat note near 1.09900 in the early European session on Wednesday. Traders are opting for a wait-and-see approach ahead of important economic data releases from the Eurozone and the US. Keep a close eye on the Eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) and the US consumer price index (CPI) for July. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for US final demand rose 2.2% y/y in July versus 2.7% in the previous month, lower than the 2.3% expected. The monthly PPI increased 0.1% y/y after rising 0.2% in June. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.4% y/y in July, up from 3.0% in June, below the market consensus forecast of 2.7%. Markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in September, while a 50 bps rate cut in September is not out of the question, but it will be entirely data dependent. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday emphasized that the latest economic data has given him "more confidence" that the Fed will be able to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, more evidence is needed before he would be willing to support an interest rate cut. The Eurozone economy is estimated to have grown 0.3% in the second quarter from the previous quarter and 0.6% from a year earlier. Weaker than expected GDP growth figures may have a negative impact on the Euro (EUR) exchange rate against the US Dollar (USD). Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.09900 if the level is fixed above, take Buy positions. On the rebound take Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 13, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday. Safe-haven currency flows may limit the yen's decline, which could be linked to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A special session of the Japanese parliament is scheduled for August 23 to discuss the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to raise interest rates last month. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to be invited to the session, organized by the lower house's financial affairs committee, government sources reported citing Reuters. The USD/JPY pair is gaining support amid easing pressure on the U.S. dollar due to lower expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in September fell to 50% from 85% last week. Nevertheless, the betting markets continue to rate the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting at least 25 bps at 100%. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) wedge BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2427, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2403 2nd Support – 2388 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2440. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
6
$BABA | Allocation & Watchlist | Market Exec & Buy Stops |Technical Confluences: - Price action has been consolidating between a Wedge pattern - Price action is at a Demand Zone of all-time lows - Price is starting to slowly break above the 200MA - A break above the resistance trendline (been a good support/resistance TL) would be a significant move. Fundamental Confluences: - Considerably cheap valuations - Still one of the largest e-commerce players, don't see it dropping it off anytime soon - China's economy has been weakening and we are seeing efforts by the China government to help boost back the domestic economy. Potential for revenue boost. ________________________________ Putting in my first tranche of NYSE:BABA allocation for my Long-Term portfolio. Gonna be holding this share for years and will continue adding position with Buy Stop orders. Remember, DYOR. ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
NYSE:BABALong
by weekendanalyst
5