🐻FTSE is in a bear market - 2 levels to look out for.The FTSE100 is clearly in a bear market
It's running under the Ichimoku cloud, the 50 day MA is turning lower, RSI moment is bearish and major UK stocks are heading back to their March lows. There seems to be a small section of UK stocks that are doing well, but even those are looking a little overstretched now.
Levels to look out for 5,700 and major support at 5,550.
I have linked to my last idea where I went over in detail the bull and bear cases for the FTSE should you want to learn more.
Ftse100
FTSE100 - UKX - Range Bound. FTSE100 Weighted by various components, as well as that there was news that few companies from FTSE100 index will be removed and replaced.
However, let's focus on technical aspects:
We are within a range bound area for a while! Could look at it like bullish flag or a wedge/Triangle pattern (Be careful of fake break out). Which ever way this index breaks - I have kept the key support and resistance areas lined up. Those will be the areas I will be looking into in-depth. I advise you to perhaps add alerts or feeling towards risky side at limit orders, so you won't miss the trade opportunity!
Just a trading idea, not a recommendation.
Best wishes,
Trade Journal
🐱The FTSE 100 is what a dead-cat bounce looks likeCompared to major indices in the US, Europe and Asia, the FTSE100 is getting beaten up, and beaten up bad.
Macro economic factors for the UK are very bearish, with huge job layoffs and big unemployment numbers when the UK furlough scheme ends, not a lot has changed since my last update.
Major FTSE 100 companies like Taylor Wimpey, BP, Lloyds, BT etc are all leading the way with the beat downs.
The bounce started strong and we got all the way up to 6,500 before getting chopped down back to 6,000.
Since then the FTSE has never really gotten off the ground and has been playing around the 6,000 level for the last few weeks.
Without strong fundamentals to lead the FTSE higher, it looks like the next level is going to be lower.
Using fib and past support and psychology levels the next areas of support are 5,900, 5,700 and then 5,500.
Have a question about the FTSE100? Leave a comment below.
Decision time for FTSEThe British index is in a complete impasse due to concern over the second wave of viruses.
If the index can throw itself back into the green rising channel, things will get better for the kingdom, but if the falling channel is stronger it can retreat back to the lower horizontal support.
Only personal opinions and ideas. Does not Include Legal Investment advice...
Expanding Triangle - Bearish or Bullish?Is the FTSE in Wave C or E of an expanding triangle? Both patterns could be supported by a pull pack in the S&P500 to complete the triangle (Wave E) or a move to the downside if wave E have completed at around 6295.
#UK100 #FTSE100 Top Down Analysis & ForecastTraders, In this multi time frame analysis we see that market has reached a critical level. It also moved exactly as we predicted in our last analysis. So what's next?
If you found this idea useful, hit the like button and subscribe. If you have your own ideas to share on this market or have a question, comment below so that we can discuss.
Disclaimer:
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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#FTSE100 #UK100 Weekly Multi Time Frame Analysis & ForecastTraders, FTSE100 has taken a divergence from snp500 and fell. This has been showing bearish signs for some time now. So I am expecting it to fall further. Lets see what opportunities we have on it in this multi timeframe analysis and forecast.
If you found this idea useful, hit the like button and subscribe. If you have your own ideas to share on this market or have a question, comment below so that we can discuss.
Disclaimer:
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
____________________________________________________
📈FTSE 100 - Here's where we are going next in August 👇This is a chart of the FTSE100 on the daily time frame, each bar is 1 day of price action. In this post I talk about the price action of July, bull and bear cases for the FTSE and important levels to watch out for if you're looking to add to positions.
The last time I posted about the FTSE I said it was important that we do not break the 6,000 level, and if we do it becomes more probable that we see the 5,000 level again.
A clear break of the 6,000 level would indicate that the March rally was a dead count bounce.
On Thursday the FTSE broke the 6,000 level.
On Friday it back tested the 6,000 level as resistance, what was once support has now become resistance (wick on the last bar touched the 6,000 level before selling off sharply.)
It convincing broke that level showing sellers wanting to get out.
What has happened in the UK in July?
Let’s start with UK’s biggest bank Lloyds which is a barometer for the financial economy (I exl HSBC as it’s a multinational, but if you take a look at all banks, they are breaking major support levels across the board).
From March till July, Lloyds was holding strong above the 30p mark a huge level in place since 2008 GFC, this week it’s earning came out much worse than expected and it broke major support sitting at 26p.
Now over to energy – BP.
Like Lloyds, BP was keeping its head above water at 300p a historical level of importance for over a decade of price action.
This area acted as support all the way back from 2010 and 2015, this week it fell through the floor and now sits at 275p.
BT was keeping afloat above the 115p area for months and now is at 98p, lowest price in a decade.
Taylor Wimpy major level was 130p in play from 2016 and 2018 where it bounce off nicely, for months it was using this level as support, it now sits at 118p.
Across a wide range of sectors, many UK large businesses have broken major support levels that have supported them for many years, suggesting that the overall mood is bearish and that in the next few months we should expect more downside.
Why did we see a sharp amount of selling the last few days? Some things to think about.
On Friday UK ended its 80% furlough scheme, now it’s only gives 60% with employers putting up the other 20%. The question is how many employers are going to put up the 20% with their profits slashed.
I don’t think it’s any surprise that we see the break of support on the Thursday, two days before the scheme was being cut, I assume that investors were waiting to see if this would be extended before making their way to the exit.
On Friday Brois slammed on the “breaks” for -opening the UK, with some parts of North England under some type of lockdown, slowing down the recovery. Casinos, bowling alleys etc opening are also delayed for at least two weeks. Borris also stated another nationwide lockdown is not off the cards.
No trade deal with the EU does not help local UK businesses, and the strengthening of the GBP is dragging the FTSE down as it makes foreign investment into the FTSE less attractive.
In my last FTSE post I stated that I expected to see many more layoffs and that has come true, not a day goes by without a major firm reducing staff.
Companies all over the globe are figuring out how to do more with less, and when they figure that out it will result in job cuts.
Mortgage holiday and credit card holidays are coming to an end shortly, signalling more pain for banks and reasons to exit.
Now let's focus on the bull cases for the FTSE100, if you have your own bull/bear cases please leave a comment below so we can share ideas.
The UK gets the virus under control and we see a v-shape recovery, or a vaccine.
The bulk of employers pay 20% of the furlough for staff staying at home and unemployment does not increase, and by October we are back to normal (that's when the scheme ends), or the scheme is extended.
UK gets a great EU trade deal.
The first area of support on the FTSE is minor support at 5,700~, we can see it acting as both support and resistance from March-July, and if you zoom out over 10 years, this level has acted as S/R in the past, I expect buyers to step in here, but will there be more buyers than sellers?
If we cannot hold the 5,700 area, then it’s most likely that we go and re-test the 5,000 area where I expect there to be a lot of buyers waiting.
If you’re holding FTSE funds/ETF and are thinking about adding, these are important levels to watch out for to average in.
Can we see the FTSE100 break above the 6,000 level next week?
Yes, it can.
If the FTSE goes upward of 6,000, I would like to see a huge green candle as that shows that buyers are stepping in, I would then like to see the FTSE close above 6k for several days, making the break below 6,000 a bear trap. If that does not happen, then we can expect more downside to the FTSE 100. Looking at the RSI buying moment is weak and shows that the bears are firmly in control right now.
Have a question? Then leave one below.