FTSE 100 ExpirationQ: What has the highest probability of occurring?
There is a lot of volume being traded but the market is moving sideways. The expiration date on the 3rd Friday of the 3rd quarter is approaching. Traders are rolling forward their contracts from September to December.
It makes for quite difficult trading of classic patterns. A rise in false breakouts.
Consider where the future price is relative to the spot price of the instrument being traded.
Is it higher or lower? Since futures contracts expire at the spot price that mean the futures price is more likely to move down or up to the spot price.
Since algo's trade the arbitrage here there is not a great spread between the two prices although it would make sense to trade in the direction of the spot price.
As expiration nears the distribution in the spread is more likely to be normal. This suggests the market is more inclined to mean revert. Think Bollinger Bands and rotations between the standard deviations.
Its not clear cut, there are losers and winners B for Buy and S for Sell. Higher timeframe Bollinger Bands also play a role in where price stops.
The logic behind this is that traders need prices to stabilise so they can execute like for like between the expiring contract and future contract.
Ftse100
VUKE Daily - Tomorrow LDT for juicy 46p diviTomorrow is the LDT for a 46p divi = 1.46% simple divi yield off current price. Also appears as though the ETF has formed a triple top - but as the saying goes "no such thing as a triple top". I am hoping we power through to resistance around 33. I had been averaging into my ISAs and SIPPs the for past few days in anticipation of the dividend and next leg higher.
Put the FTSE100 on the radarThe FTSE is looking primed for a potential breakout. We have a flat sided ascending triangle which tends to resolve to the upside. The 7200 resistance will be tough to overcome as it was strong former support back throughout 2019. Recently price has been rangebound between 7k and 7.2k, seeking a new catalyst for a sustained move. The RSI has plenty of room to run before overbought fears could become an issue. Targets wise on the upside, a break through 7200 could bring 7500 into play. While on the downside, 7k would be first on the list with further moves lower potentially opening up 6.8k.
UKX Hourly - Push higher likely to stallI would be surprised if this bounce continues much higher before a pullback/some consolidation. We are hitting double resistance - Lateral and downward sloping. There is also some hidden bearish RSI divergence. Ideally would like to see 7070 tested and then will re-assess
FTSE 2017 fractal points to a 7500 topThis is a fractal analysis on FTSE from 2017. Not much description is needed here, the chart is quite straightforward. The 2020-2021 (Fractal B) price action so far is similar to the 2016-2017 (Fractal A) sequence. They both started after the market bottomed out on a 1W Death Cross and have been rising with only medium-term pull-backs when the price hit a Higher Highs (dashed) trend-line. In 2017 the index made the next Higher High within the 1.618 - 1.786 Fibonacci extension and topped on the 2.0 Fib mark. If the pattern continues to repeat itself, then FTSE may make a Higher High within 7330-7430, pullback and go for a market top at 7550.
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Elliott Wave View: FTSE Nesting Higher As ImpulseShort-term Elliott wave view in FTSE suggests that the pullback to 19 July 2021 low (6812.84) ended wave (4). Up from there, the index is nesting higher as an impulse sequence within wave (5) favoring more upside extension to take place. While the initial bounce to 6929.89 high ended wave ((i)), wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 6827.26 low, wave ((iii)) completed in lesser degree 5 waves at 7018.95 high. Wave ((iv)) ended at 6956.24 low, wave ((v)) ended at 7033.27 high thus completed wave 1.
Down from there, the index made a pullback in wave 2 to correct the cycle from 7/19/2021 low. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave flat structure where wave ((a)) ended at 6980.67 low. Wave ((b)) ended at 7038.65 high and wave ((c)) ended at 6929.64 low. Above from there, the index started the next leg higher in wave 3 and ended lesser degree wave ((i)) at 7093.93 high. Then wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 6996.93 low and resume the rally higher again.
Whereas lesser degree wave (i) ended at 7142.54 low, wave (ii) ended at 7089.74 low. Near-term, as far as dips remain above 7089.74 low and more importantly above 6812.84 low then FTSE is expected to extend higher in lesser degree wave (iii) towards 7236.10- 7326.35 area higher before entering into a wave (iv) pullback. We don’t recommend selling and expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swings for further upside.
UKX Hourly - Approaching double resistance FTSE has a habit of issuing a signal then giving one last final squeeze - is the same happening again post the break down of the rising wedge? I'm still holding onto my prior shorts and using this opportunity to add. Currently at double resistance at 7190. RSI also showing divergence as well as being overbought. Good RR here I reckon for a short.
FTSE- The Big ShortFTSE, Has completed this huge daily harmonic pattern since before the Covid pandemic, We could see a massive sell of in the indice, Money running to the $ could see a massive collapse in global stock markets, because they too me seem very over priced, considering the state of the overall world economy right now, with tensions brewing China, is it possible we see a massive sell off and pressure on the FTSE 100, time will tell.
UKX Hourly - Nice pullback off resistance Nice pullback this morning off the top of the megaphone formation identified yesterday. There is double support around 7015/25 = lateral and upward sloping. A break below here targets 6980 and 6940. 6900 would see the bottom of the megaphone formation and the next large support region shaded in red. My bias would like to see it lower - but ideally would need to wait for confirmation. Also need to bare in mind that its not unusual to see selling into month end followed by a rally at the beginning of the new month
UK100 long is live 📈👍Entry details are shown on the chart.
We're only looking for TP3.
Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency.
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Darren.
UKX Hourly - Consolidating before next leg higher Decent bounce o/n / this morning following yesterday's sell off. I still favour a further move to the upside to test the initial break down. Can potentially see a bit of consolidation here in the red zone before targeting 6980. RSI has also broken out.