EURJPY WEEKLY ANALYSISIn this video i go over why I'm looking for longs on this pair after the closure that was bullish on the weekly timeframe and the structure on the 4hr timframe that signals buying strength
Forextrading
Usdchf dropping area confirm sell read the caption week ago today, the USDCHF made a break to the upside and out of the "Red Box" that had confined the pair going back to August 20. The US jobs report was the catalyst for the move higher, but by Monday, the price fell back to the high of that "red box" and even moved within the topside edges of it.
Sellers should have entered on that breach, but the momentum was very modest, and sellers turned back to buyers into Tuesday and reached session - and week - highs on late Wednesday and into Thursday's trade. Those highs reached a swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619. The high price reached 0.86067.
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NZDUSD: Bearish Outlook For Next Week Explained 🇳🇿🇺🇸
NZDUSD is retesting a recently broken daily horizontal structure support.
With a high probability, it turned into a resistance.
I will expect a bearish movement from that at least to 0.6 support.
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Usdcad bear and bull analysis read the caption The USDCAD has been trending to the upside since bottoming on October 2 near 1.3472. The momentum over the last eight trading days has taken the price up to a high of 1.37826. That took the price to the low of the next swing area target between 1.3784 and 1.38036 (going back to April 2024 – see the red numbered circles on the chart below)
Nzdusd confirm buy here is a opportunity read the caption The NZDUSD traded above and below the 100-day MA this week but above the 200-day MA (green line) into the mid-week RBNZ rate decision. The central bank cut rates by 50 basis points and that sent the pair below the 61.8% but buyers came in against the 61.8% retracement. The subsequent bounce off the low on Wednesday saw the price move back to the 200-day MA where sellers leaned, putting a lid on the pair.
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AUDJPY: Great long term bullish trade.AUDJPY is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.728, MACD = 0.850, ADX = 48.315) which shows the steady bullish trend on the medium term but more importantly it just turned bullish on the 1W timeframe, showing the enourmous upside potential. And this is evident as the dominant pattern is a Channel Up since March 2020. The August low was a bottom exactly on the 1D MA50, the 1D RSI is making a bottom formation and the price action looks identical to the two prior bottoms of the Channel. The rallies they produced rose both by +27.00%. We expect a similar rebound (TP = 114.000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DXY: Still bullish but be ready to sell at the right price.The U.S. Dollar Index is heavily bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.833, MACD = 0.380, ADX = 45.822) as it has been rising strongly since the Sep 27th Low, not over its 1D MA50. The price action is identical to the rebound that was initiated on December 28th 2023 and reached the 0.618 Fibonacci level only to get rejected there back to the 0.5 Fib. Consequently we will remain bullish, aiming at the 0.618 Fib and the 1D MA200 (TP = 103.850) and then switch to shorting aiming a little higher than the 0.5 Fib (TP = 102.500).
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DXY: A Bullish Outlook for the USDThe US Dollar Index (DXY), a critical gauge of the dollar's performance against a basket of major currencies, recently encountered a significant demand area at 100.53. This pivotal point has historically acted as a fulcrum, influencing the currency's trajectory. Interestingly, this interaction coincides with a notable downturn in the commitment of traders (COT) report for retail traders, suggesting a pivotal shift in market sentiment.
Retail Traders Retreat Amidst Bullish Signals
Retail traders, often seen as contrarian indicators, have shown a marked decrease in their positions at this juncture, reaching notably low levels. This trend typically suggests a lack of confidence among smaller market participants, which can often precede a reversal when combined with other factors. It's crucial to consider these dynamics within the broader context of market sentiment and economic indicators.
Institutional Insights: Fund Managers and Commercials Buying the Dip
Conversely, the behavior of more significant market players such as fund managers and commercial traders provides a stark contrast. Fund managers have maintained or increased their bullish positions, demonstrating a robust confidence in the strength of the USD. Simultaneously, commercial traders, known for their strategic depth and market knowledge, have started accumulating positions, "buying the dip." This accumulation by commercials is often a reliable indicator of foundational strength in the market, suggesting that these savvy traders anticipate a forthcoming rise in the dollar's value.
Technical and Seasonal Factors Align for a Bullish Scenario
From a technical perspective, the DXY has shown signs of being oversold. When a financial instrument reaches such conditions, it often suggests that the selling momentum might be overextended, priming the market for a bullish reversal. This technical signal, in conjunction with the identified demand area, provides a compelling case for an impending upward movement.
Moreover, seasonality also plays a critical role in the dynamics of currency markets. Historical data and patterns can influence trader expectations and market movements significantly. For the DXY, seasonal trends around this time of year have frequently aligned with strengthening trends, reinforcing the current analysis that an uptick could be on the horizon.
Looking Forward: A Bullish Forecast for the USD
Considering these multifaceted insights—from the COT data illustrating a shift away from retail bullishness to the strategic accumulations by institutional players, and the supportive technical and seasonal indicators—the stage is set for a potential long-term increase in the value of the USD. Traders and investors would be wise to monitor these developments closely, as the confluence of these factors could lead to significant opportunities in the forex markets.
The current landscape of the DXY presents a textbook scenario where understanding the interplay between different trader behaviors and technical indicators can provide a strategic advantage. As we move forward, keeping a pulse on these shifts will be crucial for capitalizing on the anticipated upward trajectory of the USD.
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Asian and European session price on October 11The price zone 2648 and 2658 are being watched at the moment to prevent gold price from increasing further. The Asian session is looking at this zone to execute SELL signals. Our target is being watched at the 2630 zone which was the breakout point in the last evening session.
Audusd confirm analysis read the caption The AUDUSD fell to - and through the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at 0.67146 late yesterday, but bounced higher in the Asian session today. The high price in the Asian session extended up to 0.67417 which was just short of the low of a swing area 0.67429.
The subsequent fall back to the downside helped by CPI and initial jobless claims did see a new low reached at 0.66997. That low was ahead of a swing area between 0.6685 and 0.6696. The 100 day moving averages between those levels as well
XAU will continue to rise in the coming timeThe market is expecting an 84.9% chance that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points at its November meeting.
Some other experts also expect gold prices to continue to rise in the coming time due to global economic and geopolitical instability. Despite the pressure from fluctuating US interest rates and geopolitical tensions, the precious metal remains a safe choice for long-term investors.
Gold cross 2700 slowly but surely read the caption Gold price is looking to build on the previous recovery from three-week lows of $2,604 early Friday. Broad risk aversion and a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick support Gold price heading into the US Producer Price Index (CPI) data release due later on Friday.
US jobs worries outweigh hot inflation, lifting Gold price
Gold price continues to cheer the unfazed odds of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. Markets currently price in about an 86% chance of such a move next month
Fri 11th Oct 2024 GBP/CAD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a GBP/CAD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
EURCHF: Successive rejections on the 1D MA50. Bearish.EURCHF is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.451, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 26.515) as it's been failing to cross over the 1D MA50 and reverse the trend. Given that the long term pattern is still a Channel Down, this gives a new sell signal with the RSI suggesting we are running a similar below 1D MA50 sequence as August 2023. For the remainder of the year, we are aiming for the bottom of the Channel Down, close to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 0.91500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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EURJPY: Well supported on the 1W MA100 but needs more to rise.EURJPY is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.394, MACD = 0.690, ADX = 37.501), practically neutral as it's been ranging between the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100. The long term pattern is a Channel Up since 2021 and the recent 1W MA100 test is the new bottom (HL) of the pattern. The 1W MA50-100 consolidation is the bottom formation and even though it's encouraging we need a crossing over the 1W MA50 in order to validate the new rise. Technically it should be around +18.70% like the previous two. Set your target accordingly (TP = 183.500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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EURUSD: Dollar holds steady as Fed minutes emergeThe US dollar remained steady today, providing some respite for the yen and other major currencies after rising to a seven-week high last week. Market participants are taking a moment to assess the future trajectory of US interest rates.
Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting today, which will reveal the discussions that led to a 50 basis point rate cut, agreed by all but one policymaker amid a seemingly worsening labour market.
Usoil just broke structureUsoil gave us a nice pull back last week forming a potential bull flag. With the break of this structural level of resistance USoil may continue the uptrend.
NZDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6080
Stop Loss: 0.6140 (60 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.5980 (100 pips below entry, offering a 1.67:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
The New Zealand dollar is displaying signs of weakness, and with global risk-off sentiment prevailing, NZD/USD may continue to fall towards 0.5980. This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity.
GBPUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 1.3091
Stop Loss: 1.3170 (80 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 1.2970 (120 pips below entry, offering a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
GBP/USD faces increasing downward pressure as the U.K. economy remains fragile, while the U.S. dollar benefits from its relative strength. This trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio in light of these macroeconomic factors.
Gold prices plummet after CPI newsGold is currently trading around $2,608 an ounce, down 1.7% this week. This is largely due to rising US Treasury yields, which have dampened expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points.
Minutes of the Fed's recent meeting showed that Chairman Jerome Powell faced some opposition to the rate cut in September. Some officials expressed that the rate cut should be smaller than the 50 basis points. Separately, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Wednesday that monetary policy easing should be done at a slower pace after last month's cut.
Markets are awaiting CPI data due later Thursday. If inflation continues to decline, this will support the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near future.
XAU plummetsGold prices also fell due to profit-taking pressure after the precious metal surged and set a record high at the end of last month. The price drop is inevitable, even if gold is in a long-term uptrend.
Previously, gold was forecast to increase in price until at least mid-2025 following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut trend. The Fed began its interest rate cut cycle in mid-September and signaled that it would cut interest rates until 2026. This also means that pressure will be placed on the USD. Gold will benefit.
However, the USD has recently turned around after a sharp decline. Investors are worried that the Fed will not continue to cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at its November meeting, but may only cut by 0.25 points when the US economy is still quite strong.
